Beating Nadal, then losing

[Tenez!]

It turns out facing Nadal is still bad luck, even when he's harmless.
Today's French sports newspaper L'équipe writes :

Of Nadal's 21 pre-final defeats since 2014, only 4 times did his conqueror win the following round.

2015
Feliciano Lopez, Cincinnati: loses to Roger Federer
Kei Nishikori, Montréal: loses to Andy Murray
Dustin Brown, Wimbledon: loses to Viktor Troicki
Alexandr Dolgopolov, Queen's: loses to Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Novak Djokovic, Roland-Garros: beats Andy Murray. Loses in the final to Wawrinka.
Stan Wawrinka, à Rome: loses to Roger Federer
Andy Murray, Madrid in the final (doesn't count)
Fabio Fognini, Barcelona: loses to Pablo Andujar
Novak Djokovic, Monte-Carlo: beats Tomas Berdych in the final
Fernando Verdasco, Miami: loses to Juan Monaco
Milos Raonic, Indian Wells: loses to Roger Federer
Fabio Fognini, Rio: loses to David Ferrer
Tomas Berdych, Australian Open: loses to Andy Murray
Michael Berrer, Doha: loses to Ivan Dodig
2014
Borna Coric, Bâle: loses to David Goffin
Feliciano Lopez, Shanghai: beats Isner then Youzhny. Loses in the semis to Gilles Simon
Martin Klizan, Peking: loses to Tomas Berdych
Nick Kyrgios, Wimbledon: loses to Milos Raonic
Dustin Brown, Halle: loses to Philipp Kohlschreiber
Novak Djokovic, Rome in the final (doesn't count)
Nicolas Almagro, Barcelona: loses to Santiago Giraldo
David Ferrer, Monte-Carlo: loses to Stan Wawrinka
Novak Djokovic, Miami in the final (doesn't count)
Alexandr Dolgopolov, à Indian Wells: gagne contre Fabio Fognini et Milos Raonic. Loses in the semis to Federer.
Stan Wawrinka, Australian Open in the final (doesn't count)




In contrast, Federer lost in the past 4 of 5 Slams to the future champion (Novak at Wimbledon, Cilic at USO, Wawrinka at FO).

 

[Dark Magician]

Do this analysis for Journeymen, you would get even better numbers. If you lose to low ranked players, it obviously means that you are losing to players who have low chance of winning. If you lose only in semis/quarters, the winner will have higher chances of winning the event.

 

[ibbi]

I don't know if this is supposed to be one of those massively clever sarcastic posts or not, but I'd say it's less a case of being bad luck, and more a case of him not being very good, so it doesn't take a player in particularly good form to beat him.

 

[SpinDoc1]

interesting

 

[Tenez!]

Nadal's style is still exhausting to play against, perhaps?
21 times is mind-boggling.

 

[Easy Rider]

Almost every player who won against Nadal is lesser player than Nadal, in terms of reputation, achievements, win/loss ratio etc. Seems like that win took its toll and they were mentally drained for the next match and their opponent saw opportunity cuz draw opened up

 

[GabeT]

I don't know if this is supposed to be one of those massively clever sarcastic posts or not, but I'd say it's less a case of being bad luck, and more a case of him not being very good, so it doesn't take a player in particularly good form to beat him.

Exactly

 

[tennisaddict]

Almost every player who won against Nadal is lesser player than Nadal, in terms of reputation, achievements, win/loss ratio etc. Seems like that win took its toll and they were mentally drained for the next match and their opponent saw opportunity cuz draw opened up

You are saying they were good enough to beat Rafa but not any other average tennis player , as Rafa's level was considerably lower than the regular tennis player

 

[tennis_pro]

Wow, that's an interesting observation. Could you (or someone) else do the same stat for Djoko, Fed and Murray?

 

[tennis_pro]

I don't know if this is supposed to be one of those massively clever sarcastic posts or not, but I'd say it's less a case of being bad luck, and more a case of him not being very good, so it doesn't take a player in particularly good form to beat him.

But it still happened almost every time. Statistically, if he lost to random players the chance for them to win the next round would be app. 50%. But (apart from Djokovic and 2 other cases), they lose EVERY TIME, that's why it's interesting.

It would make sense if, let's say a top 50 player beat Nadal and then had to face Murray in the next round. Obviously, he'd more likely than not lose and that's what happened almost every time. However, this also happens in the early rounds where there are still lots of lower ranked players in the draw! Examples:

Alexandr Dolgopolov, Queen's: loses to Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Fabio Fognini, Barcelona: loses to Pablo Andujar
Fernando Verdasco, Miami: loses to Juan Monaco
Nicolas Almagro, Barcelona: loses to Santiago Giraldo

 

[Easy Rider]

You are saying they were good enough to beat Rafa but not any other average tennis player , as Rafa's level was considerably lower than the regular tennis player

They were good enough to beat Rafa on a given day but not mentally recovered to repeat that performance

 

[Chanwan]

But it still happened almost every time. Statistically, if he lost to random players the chance for them to win the next round would be app. 50%. But (apart from Djokovic and 2 other cases), they lose EVERY TIME, that's why it's interesting.


It would make sense if, let's say a top 50 player beat Nadal and then had to face Murray in the next round. Obviously, he'd more likely than not lose and that's what happened almost every time. However, this also happens in the early rounds where there are still lots of lower ranked players in the draw! Examples:

Alexandr Dolgopolov, Queen's: loses to Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Fabio Fognini, Barcelona: loses to Pablo Andujar
Fernando Verdasco, Miami: loses to Juan Monaco
Nicolas Almagro, Barcelona: loses to Santiago Giraldo

The thing is, aside from less than a handful of those matches, the guy who beat Rafa and lost the next match wasn't favored to beat the next guy. That makes it less 'interesting'

 

[Krish872007]

So who are the only people to beat Nadal but then go on to back up that win (maybe even win the tournament)? Off the top of my head I can only think of these guys who are/were very good players: Djokovic, Federer, Murray, Nalbandian, Tsonga, Del Potro, Hewitt

 

[tennisaddict]

They were good enough to beat Rafa on a given day but not mentally recovered to repeat that performance

That doesn't make sense. Most of Rafa losses like Darcis, Kyrgios, Dustin, Berdych are severe thrashing. They should have had abundant energy for next round

 

[tennis_pro]

The thing is, aside from less than a handful of those matches, the guy who beat Rafa and lost the next match wasn't favored to beat the next guy. That makes it less 'interesting'

But even if you take those handful of matches, they lost almost every time.

However, looking at it from a different perspective, you'd think that if a player beat Nadal, that would give him a huge confidence boost for the next round (unless he played a long match). That never happens/ed, though!

 

[Easy Rider]

That doesn't make sense. Most of Rafa losses like Darcis, Kyrgios, Dustin, Berdych are severe thrashing. They should have had abundant energy for next round

Im not talking about physical energy. Their muscles were probably fresh, but nervous system needs more time to recuperate. Like they were over inervated on that given day. Ive watched few matches in next round. I had a feeling that tournament ended for them after beating Nadal

 

[Chanwan]

But even if you take those handful of matches, they lost almost every time.

However, looking at it from a different perspective, you'd think that if a player beat Nadal, that would give him a huge confidence boost for the next round (unless he played a long match). That never happens/ed, though!

You would think that, but it's the norm that a lesser player falls in the next round after beating a Big 3 member - not just with Rafa imo. That's part of the reason, (some) people don't like upsets. Because they are not followed up with wins for whatever reason (too much celebration, to much satisfaction with the big win, too much mental energy exerted etc.).

That, combined with very few of the players on the list, being the bookies favorite prior to their next match, would explain most of it imo

 

[mike danny]

That doesn't make sense. Most of Rafa losses like Darcis, Kyrgios, Dustin, Berdych are severe thrashing. They should have had abundant energy for next round

To be fair though Darcis withdrew from the next round due to injury at Wimb 2013.

 

[Krish872007]

Same list for Djokovic - note that every loss not included was in the tournament finals:

2014:

Wawrinka, Australian Open - won whole tournament beating Berdych and Nadal
Federer, Dubai - won whole tournament, beating Berdych
Federer, Monte Carlo - lost to Wawrinka in Final
Tsonga, Toronto - won whole tournament, beating Murray, Dimitrov and Federer
Robredo, Cincinnati - lost to Ferrer in QFs
Nishikori, US Open - lost to Cilic in Final
Federer, Shanghai - won whole tournament, beating Simon

2015:

Karlovic, Doha - lost to Ferrer in SFs

And for Federer:

2014:

Nadal, Australian Open - lost to Wawrinka in Final
Nishikori, Miami - retired from SF against Djokovic
Chardy, Rome - defeated Dodig before losing to Raonic in QFs
Gulbis, French Open - defeated Berdych before losing to Djokovic in SFs
Cilic, US Open - won whole tournament, defeating Nishikori
Raonic, Paris - defeated Berdych before losing to Djokovic in Final

2015:

Seppi, Australian Open - lost to Kyrgios in R4
Monfils, Monte Carlo - defeated Dimitrov before losing to Berdych in SFs
Kyrgios, Madrid - lost to Isner in R3
Wawrinka, French Open - won whole tournament, defeating Tsonga and Djokovic

 

[RSH]

Dolgopolov lost to GGL on grass?

 

[Tenez!]

Same list for Djokovic - note that every loss not included was in the tournament finals:

2014:

Wawrinka, Australian Open - won whole tournament beating Berdych and Nadal
Federer, Dubai - won whole tournament, beating Berdych
Federer, Monte Carlo - lost to Wawrinka in Final
Tsonga, Toronto - won whole tournament, beating Murray, Dimitrov and Federer
Robredo, Cincinnati - lost to Ferrer in QFs
Nishikori, US Open - lost to Cilic in Final
Federer, Shanghai - won whole tournament, beating Simon

2015:

Karlovic, Doha - lost to Ferrer in SFs

And for Federer:

2014:

Nadal, Australian Open - lost to Wawrinka in Final
Nishikori, Miami - retired from SF against Djokovic
Chardy, Rome - defeated Dodig before losing to Raonic in QFs
Gulbis, French Open - defeated Berdych before losing to Djokovic in SFs
Cilic, US Open - won whole tournament, defeating Nishikori
Raonic, Paris - defeated Berdych before losing to Djokovic in Final

2015:

Seppi, Australian Open - lost to Kyrgios in R4
Monfils, Monte Carlo - defeated Dimitrov before losing to Berdych in SFs
Kyrgios, Madrid - lost to Isner in R3
Wawrinka, French Open - won whole tournament, defeating Tsonga and Djokovic

Great work. What's the bold for in Federer's case?

 

[Krish872007]

Great work. What's the bold for in Federer's case?

Thanks. It's the same thing really - guys who backed up their win against him by winning at least one more match (not including his losses in finals)

 

[Godfather IV]

Had anyone won a title recently after beating Nadal ?

 

[dlk]

Had anyone won a title recently after beating Nadal ?

Is 2014 recent?

 

[Tenez!]

Had anyone won a title recently after beating Nadal ?

Did you read the opening post?

 

[Tenez!]

Thanks. It's the same thing really - guys who backed up their win against him by winning at least one more match (not including his losses in finals)

Right. Thought we'd gone on about who went on to win the whole event. Remarkably in 2014 Djokovic's case the two sets coincide perfectly, which confused me.

In other words, beat Djokovic then the next round, and the tourney was yours.

 

[waarp]

This happens all the time. Underdog beats top seed, underdog goes on to lose next round.

 

[smoledman]

Beating Rafa is very exhausting work, doesn't leave much in the tank for the next round. This is not a shocker.

 

[vive le beau jeu !]

ok i get it now... coric probably saw this thread and thought he had better chances to win his next match if he lost to the nadal.

 

[Mainad]

Had anyone won a title recently after beating Nadal ?

Yep, Murray won Madrid after beating Nadal!

 

[Tenez!]

Had anyone won a title recently after beating Nadal ?

Pre-final victory over Nadal ultimately leading to the title? Djokovic in Monaco this year.

Otherwise believe it or not, you have to go back to 2012 and Federer at Indian Wells!

 

[mattosgrant]

Nadal is weak to the point now many of the players who beat him aren't even that good. So this is no surprise. Over half of those players would never be expected to go on to win the tournament anyway.

 

[sarmpas]

I don't know if this is supposed to be one of those massively clever sarcastic posts or not, but I'd say it's less a case of being bad luck, and more a case of him not being very good, so it doesn't take a player in particularly good form to beat him.

That's harsh, he is a very good player, a great player even, he's just more vulnerable than Federer which is why he hasn't won as many slams or been in as many slam finals, or lost as many slam finals, because he's just not as good as Federer in getting to slam finals. Still better at beating Federer in slam finals than vice versa but like i said he's just not as good in getting to slam finals.

 

[Deleted member 21996]

ok i get it now... coric probably saw this thread and thought he had better chances to win his next match if he lost to the nadal.

 

[Shaolin]

Perhaps nowadays a win against Nadal is too easy and not sufficient preparation for the next round.

 

[I Am Finnish]

So Fognini will lose to lopez ?

 

[dlk]

So Fognini will lose to lopez ?

I think it will be an excellent match! Albeit, Lopez certainly had an easier time in his match; Perhaps not a factor, as Fabio is in pretty good shape.

 

[I Am Finnish]

I think it will be an excellent match! Albeit, Lopez certainly had an easier time in his match; Perhaps not a factor, as Fabio is in pretty good shape.

Wel fognini lost
The curse is real

 

[JustBob]

So the guy who beats Nadal usually loses in the next round to a higher ranked/better player. How shocking.

 

[HewittAlwaysDisappoints]

So the guy who beats Nadal usually loses in the next round to a higher ranked/better player. How shocking.

2015
Dustin Brown, Wimbledon: loses to Viktor Troicki
Alexandr Dolgopolov, Queen's: loses to Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Fabio Fognini, Barcelona: loses to Pablo Andujar
Fernando Verdasco, Miami: loses to Juan Monaco
Michael Berrer, Doha: loses to Ivan Dodig
2014
Borna Coric, Bâle: loses to David Goffin
Nick Kyrgios, Wimbledon: loses to Milos Raonic
Dustin Brown, Halle: loses to Philipp Kohlschreiber

Now, Clownini loses to Lopez 6-3 7-6 6-1

 

[Tenez!]

So the guy who beats Nadal usually loses in the next round to a higher ranked/better player. How shocking.

If it were that easy to interpret there's be no matter for a thread.
The point is that the guy who beats Nadal often loses to a lower-ranked player in the next turn.
Which is rather shocking, especially when it happens 20 times in 2 years.

 

[Minion]

Being able to say 'I beat Nadal' is it's own reward. Yea, I know he's not on top form, but still.

 

[Novak And The Net.]

It's because the field are all mentally strong.

 

[Murrayjuannow]

Maybe the Nadal conquerors suffered severe ecoli and salmonella infestation from 5 hours of touching the balls.

 

[Krish872007]

Players who have won a title after beating Nadal before the final:

Novak Djokovic: Miami 2007, Montreal 2007, Indian Wells 2008, Paris 2009, Monte Carlo 2015
Roger Federer: Shanghai MC 2006, Shanghai MC 2007, London 2011, Indian Wells 2012
Andy Roddick: Dubai 2008, Miami 2010
Juan Martin Del Potro: US Open 2009
Nikolay Davydenko: London 2009
David Nalbandian: Madrid 2007

 

[Tenez!]

Curse still going strong, thanks Deliciano!

 

[heninfan99]

After Stanimal defeated him in the Aussie final did he win his next match???

 

[Tenez!]

It makes sense that finals are excluded from this. Recovery time is very different between successive matches and between tournaments.

(But yes, against Lajović in Davis Cup 2R)

 

[vive le beau jeu !]

Being able to say 'I beat Nadal' is it's own reward. Yea, I know he's not on top form, but still.

he's never in top form...

it's more like "saved tennis, heading back home"