Chances at this stage for 2019 FO

[uscwang]

Nadal (Fed, Djoko/Thiem/Z/K): 65%
Djokovic (Zverev, Thiem/Khachanov, Nadal/Federer): 25%
Federer (Nadal, Djokovic/Thiem/Z/K): 5%
Thiem (Khachanov, Djokovic/Zverev, Nadal/Federer): 5%
Zverev: 0%
Khachanov: 0%

Djokovic or Thiem will likely emerge from the top half, tired. Then they have to fight a fresh Nadal. Advantage Nadal.
IF Federer somehow beats Nadal, he will likely be tired, but pumped. He will then have his chance against a (more?) tired Djokovic or Thiem.
The way matches are lined up, I think Zverev and Khachanov's chances are negligible.

Voted Nadal although I hope Novak can win this one. Maybe he can beat Zverev and Thiem with ease?

 

[helterskelter]

Here are the bookmakers' odds:

Nadal: 8/13
Djokovic: 5/2
Thiem: 8/1
Federer: 12/1
Zverev: 28/1
Khachanov: 40/1

 

[uscwang]

Here are the bookmakers' odds:

Nadal: 8/13
Djokovic: 5/2
Thiem: 8/1
Federer: 12/1
Zverev: 28/1
Khachanov: 40/1

Close enough. With all Big 3 still in the draw and playing well, Zeverev and Khachanov's chances are probably worse than that.

 

[AndyM]

If Joco is facing fed n the final you have to make Joker a huge favorite

 

[helterskelter]

In percentage terms, the bookies seem to make it something like this:

Nadal: 54%
Djokovic: 25%
Thiem: 9.5%
Federer: 6.5%
Zverev: 3%
Khachanov: 2%

 

[AndyM]

I think Joe Cos hhould be higher and Federer's lower

 

[Sport]

Nadal (Fed, Djoko/Thiem/Z/K): 65%
Djokovic (Zverev, Thiem/Khachanov, Nadal/Federer): 25%
Federer (Nadal, Djokovic/Thiem/Z/K): 5%
Thiem (Khachanov, Djokovic/Zverev, Nadal/Federer): 5%
Zverev: 0%
Khachanov: 0%

Djokovic or Thiem will likely emerge from the top half, tired. Then they have to fight a fresh Nadal. Advantage Nadal.
IF Federer somehow beats Nadal, he will likely be tired, but pumped. He will then have his chance against a (more?) tired Djokovic or Thiem.
The way matches are lined up, I think Zverev and Khachanov's chances are negligible.

Voted Nadal although I hope Novak can win this one. Maybe he can beat Zverev and Thiem with ease?

Why would be Djokovic or Thiem be tired? They can win the SF in 3 or 4. And having played a 5 sets match is not enough to be tired, stop with the excuses. Since Rome, it seems like some Djokovic fans want to employ the tired excuse in case Djokovic loses to Nadal. Like they can't accept Nadal can defeat Djokovic without putting excuses.

Nadal played a 5 hours and 5 sets QF with Delpo at WB 2018, and then faced Djokovic. While it is true that many Nadal fans complained about the roof, no one employed the tired excuse. Following your logic, Nadal lost to Djokovic at WB 2018 because he was tired.

 

[TennisFan3]

Nadal played a 5 hours and 5 sets QF with Delpo at WB 2018, and then faced Djokovic. While it is true that many Nadal fans complained about the roof, no one employed the tired excuse. Following your logic, Nadal lost to Djokovic at WB 2018 because he was tired.

It is not an excuse, but having played a very tight long match in the previous round does impact your chances. It's like what happened to Nadal in AO 2017 Final after having slugged it with Dimitrov in the SF.
Wimb 2018 SF after having slugged it out with Delpo in the QF.

Both AO 2017 F and Wimb 2018 SF were settled on some super thin margins that it is NOT inconceivable to feel that had Nadal had easier matches in the prior round, he would have that bit of extra energy at the end and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.

Still not an excuse, but a reality that playing long tight matches does decrease your chances in the tournament in subsequent rounds. Novak said exactly that in his R4 presser.

 

[Sport]

It is not an excuse, but having played a very tight long match in the previous round does impact your chances. It's like what happened to Nadal in AO 2017 Final after having slugged it with Dimitrov in the SF.
Wimb 2018 SF after having slugged it out with Delpo in the QF.

Both AO 2017 F and Wimb 2018 SF were settled on some super thin margins that it is NOT inconceivable to feel that had Nadal had easier matches in the prior round, he would have that bit of extra energy at the end and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.

Still not an excuse, but a reality that playing long tight matches does decrease your chances in the tournament in subsequent rounds. Novak said exactly that in his R4 presser.

So you think that Nadal having played a 5 hours QF with Delpo had an impact on his chances against Djokovic?

 

[TennisFan3]

So you think that Nadal having played a 5 hours QF with Delpo had an impact on his chances against Djokovic?

Absolutely. Both physically and mentally. A close tight match like that takes it's toll on you - on your body and on your emotions.
When in the very next match you have a similar situation sometimes it's hard to be back on the winning side. It's also the law of averages which catches up with you.

 

[Sport]

Absolutely. Both physically and mentally. A close tight match like that takes it's toll on you - on your body and on your emotions.
When in the very next match you have a similar situation sometimes it's hard to be back on the winning side. It's also the law of averages which catches up with you.

OK, now I find your reasoning coherent for all cases. On point, I agree thar both Nadal and Djokovic will desire to be as fresh as possible for the final. If they can avoid a 5 setter, I think they will be perfectly fine.

 

[TennisFan3]

OK, now I find your reasoning coherent for all cases. On point, I agree thar both Nadal and Djokovic will desire to be as fresh as possible for the final. If they can avoid a 5 setter, I think they will be perfectly fine.

Yes. I think both should be fine as they have had easy roads so far. At least in FO 2019.
In other tournaments it's usually different. There is no Apples to apples comparison. You have to beat 7 players to win a slam.
But if you get drawn with players who are difficult matchups and you end up playing long taxing matches, it obviously hurts your chances. So the draw is obviously huge in general.

 

[uscwang]

Why would be Djokovic or Thiem be tired? They can win the SF in 3 or 4. And having played a 5 sets match is not enough to be tired, stop with the excuses. Since Rome, it seems like some Djokovic fans want to employ the tired excuse in case Djokovic loses to Nadal. Like they can't accept Nadal can defeat Djokovic without putting excuses.

Nadal played a 5 hours and 5 sets QF with Delpo at WB 2018, and then faced Djokovic. While it is true that many Nadal fans complained about the roof, no one employed the tired excuse. Following your logic, Nadal lost to Djokovic at WB 2018 because he was tired.

Why so sensitive? Novak's half have only 1 day between QF and SF, while Nadal's half have 2 days. Novak's and Thiem's schedule are likely to be messed up by rain. Novak and Thiem are likely to spend much more time in a SF than Nadal and Federer would. These are the reasons I said Novak and Thiem are likely to arrive at the final tired vs a fresh Nadal.

Reasoning is not the same as looking for excuses. Nadal played 3 grueling matches in a row in 2018 USO before having to retire from his semifinal match with Delpo. It is only reasonable to conclude that he reached his physical limit at that time.

In 2018 Wimbledon, Nadal was cruising all tournament until a 5 setter against Delpo. And the semifinal was played over two days. Therefore, tiredness was not necessarily a big issue for him. I think it is common sense.

 

[Tennisgods]

Djokovic for me. I was convinced Nadal pre tournament but Novak really wants to hold all four again, he’s looked imperious and I cannot overlook that dropped set to Goffin.
In old fashioned terms, I just think Djokovic ‘has the wood’ on Nadal at slams these days.

Note: I also don’t think tiredness comes in to this. Djokovic will likely beat Zverev in 3 and Thiem in 3 (4 at most). Djokodal final with both fresh.

 

[Sport]

Why so sensitive?

In 2018 Wimbledon, Nadal was cruising all tournament until a 5 setter against Delpo. And the semifinal was played over two days. Therefore, tiredness was not necessarily a big issue for him. I think it is common sense.

To avoid double standards.

If Djokovic plays a 5 sets against Thiem, I don't want to hear from you that Djokovic was tired, and then say that Nadal was fresh at WB 2018 after playing a 5 sets against Delpo.

 

[Sport]

Djokovic for me. I was convinced Nadal pre tournament but Novak really wants to hold all four again, he’s looked imperious and I cannot overlook that dropped set to Goffin.
In old fashioned terms, I just think Djokovic ‘has the wood’ on Nadal at slams these days.

Note: I also don’t think tiredness comes in to this. Djokovic will likely beat Zverev in 3 and Thiem in 3 (4 at most). Djokodal final with both fresh.

Goffin is a tougher rival than anything Djokovic has faced so far. Yes, Novak can be convinced but convinction is not enough if Nadal is playing at his best on clay. I don't feel intimidated by neither Thiem nor Djokovic (Djokovic is not as good on clay as in other surfaces). By the way, Djokovic doesn't "have the wood" over Nadal at Roland-Garros, don't know why do you extrapolate the results from other surfaces to clay.