WTF groups are set. It's clear that Rafa's chances at YE1 are now very low.

[UnderratedSlam]

Djokovic
Federer
Thiem
Berrettini (hi, tennis_pro)

Nadal
Medvedevious
Tsetsefly
Zverev

This basically means that Djokovic and RF are in the semis already. That much is clear.

This means Rafa loses the semis - if he even gets there. His off-clay record vs Novak and RF has been pathetic since 2013/14. That certainly won't change at Rafa's weakest part of the season...

Since Djokovic is favourite to win WTF, he is very likely to be YE1.

As far as group duels, I believe we can all agree that we're VERY looking forward to:

Nadal - Medvedevious --- I believe the Russian now knows how to beat Rafa, and he has very good chances at doing it. By beating Nadal he will only strengthen his claim to break the Big 3 oligopoly.

Tsetsefly - Medvedevious --- Will 0-5 go to 0-6? Will Tsetse flip his lid again and "accuse" Medvedevious of being Russian (despite Tsetse's mother being Russian)? Will they hate each other even more after this match? To me, this is the most fun group match, from all 12 group matches.

Other interesting matches.

Federer - Thiem --- A chance for RF to decrease the 2-4 H2H lead Thiem has. He'll do it, of course.

Federer - Berrettini --- If RF loses a set to the Italian, will tennis_pro quit TTW? Very exciting.

Djokovic - Federer --- this match will happen twice, group stage and the finale. Or will Medvedevious act as Big 3 crusher and defeat another Big 3 legend after beating Rafa in the group stage?

Finally a WTF when the Big 3 are not the only favourites for the title.

And a question to the ATP:

WHY does the schedule not include Tuesday onwards?

Surely this being a group event they can easily write a schedule up until Friday?

 

[StrongRule]

As I said, the YE#1 went to Djokovic at the moment when Nadal withdrew from Shanghai. From that moment it was NID.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

As I said, the YE#1 went to Djokovic at the moment when Nadal withdrew from Shanghai. From that moment it was NID.

What about the group matches? Opinions?

 

[King No1e]

Yeah, YE#1 is on Nole's racquet now.

 

[Yugram]

Prediction: Thiem will be second in his group, RF won’t make it to SF.

 

[Sudacafan]

I’ll be rooting for Nadal in the remainder of 2019, and for Nole in 2020.

 

[Sudacafan]

Prediction: Thiem will be second in his group, RF won’t make it to SF.

Based on what?

 

[Yugram]

Based on what?

On their respective form during the fall season.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

Prediction: Thiem will be second in his group, RF won’t make it to SF.

That's quite a bold prediction.

Has there ever been a year when RF failed the group stage? I believe just once. 2008.

 

[mike danny]

He has all the Next Gens in his group. With the exception of Medvedev, the others will bend over for him.

He could have got someone like Fed in his group, so things could have been worse.

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

I would still bet on Nadal against anyone not named Federer or Djokovic, if he is fit. He has been convincing against the rest of the field recently.

Djokovic will need to be at least near perfect to get the YE #1. With his off days in BO3 being more frequent now, it's still anyone's race.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

He has all the Next Gens in his group. With the exception of Medvedev, the others will bend over for him.

He could have got someone like Fed in his group, so things could have been worse.

You mean like how Medvedevious bent over for him at USO finale?

5 hours of bending... Nadal very nearly lost that match.

It's not Rafa's fault he is great at schooling the kids, while Djokovic struggles more with them. Those kids make the same effort with all of Big 3, so their "bending over" for Rafa is not the reason.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

I would still bet on Nadal against anyone not named Federer or Djokovic, if he is fit. He has been convincing against the rest of the field recently.

Djokovic will need to be at least near perfect to get the YE #1. With his off days in BO3 being more frequent now, it's still anyone's race.

I am convinced Djokovic will reach the finale.

The big question is will he avoid another 2016/2018 scenario when he loses to opponents he should beat?

 

[PeoplesChamp]

On their respective form during the fall season.

If you're going on form, it's Fed. Taking 3 sets to put away Berrettini and Schwartzmann in Vienna is not a sign of better form than what Federer showed in Basel.

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

I am convinced Djokovic will reach the finale.

The big question is will he avoid another 2016/2018 scenario when he loses to opponents he should beat?

Hoping he won't have to go through Medvedev to get there. Can't underestimate him or Federer, they will want to fly under the radar with this YE #1 talk heating up...

 

[UnderratedSlam]

If you're going on form, it's Fed. Taking 3 sets to put away Berrettini and Schwartzmann in Vienna is not a sign of better form than what Federer showed in Basel.

True. Thiem barely won Vienna, he was always on the verge of losing matches.

Fed's Basel win was far more convincing. Nor was Thiem's form at all impressive at the recent M1000s.

 

[Nadal_King]

Tournament will be interesting and for rafa 2 biggest things to save his yeno1 position-:
1. Medvedev form which is crucial for nadal to stop djokovic from winning the title as I think medvedev has best chance of all to beat djokovic including fedal.
2. His fitness is crucial cause if that is the case then semis shouldn't be tough and his chances for year no 1 will be great as djokovic would have to win the tournament.

 

[MeatTornado]

How are both Novak and Roger locks to make the semis but not Nadal?

Unless his injury is still hampering him, there's no way he doesn't win 2/3 vs his group of NextGens.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Nadal - Medvedev --- I believe the Russian now knows how to beat Rafa, and he has very good chances at doing it.

What did he discover since September about Rafa which gave him the knowledge to beat him? He was annihilated in Canada against him and didn't get it down at the USO either.

 

[PeoplesChamp]

True. Thiem barely won Vienna, he was always on the verge of losing matches.

Fed's Basel win was far more convincing. Nor was Thiem's form at all impressive at the recent M1000s.

Nope, bombed out to Dimitrov in Paris which was understandable I guess with the scheduling. History on indoor hc has not been kind to Thiem. Federer was in pretty crap form last year and still beat him easily in London. I do think Thiem is a better player now and that it will be more competitive this time around though.

 

[Yugram]

True. Thiem barely won Vienna, he was always on the verge of losing matches.

Fed's Basel win was far more convincing. Nor was Thiem's form at all impressive at the recent M1000s.

When it comes to BO3, Thiem is the king of winning matches in this style. Remember his IW finale against Federer?

 

[UnderratedSlam]

What did he discover since September about Rafa which gave him the knowledge to beat him? He was annihilated in Canada against him and didn't get it down at the USO either.

He won two of the last three sets at USO.

In case you missed it.

And very nearly took control of the 5th set.

That's what he learned. The learning was during, not after. The best kind of learning. He knows how to play him.

Medvedevious isn't some pigeon, he is a fast learner and does not give up or lose confidence.

Canadian Open and USO... You notice no betterment there?...

 

[UnderratedSlam]

How are both Novak and Roger locks to make the semis but not Nadal?

Unless his injury is still hampering him, there's no way he doesn't win 2/3 vs his group of NextGens.

I never said Nadal won't reach semis. But if he gets there he will lose.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

When it comes to BO3, Thiem is the king of winning matches in this style. Remember his IW finale against Federer?

I don't have the close-match BO3 stats regarding Thiem. No idea how true this is.

Besides, Federer is hardly a spring chicken in terms of BO3 matches, or group stages, or indoors, or WTFs...

 

[TearTheRoofOff]

I pray for @tennis_pro's health should Berrettini reach the SF and/or beat Fraud.

 

[Big_Dangerous]

I would still bet on Nadal against anyone not named Federer or Djokovic, if he is fit. He has been convincing against the rest of the field recently.

Djokovic will need to be at least near perfect to get the YE #1. With his off days in BO3 being more frequent now, it's still anyone's race.

He has a small abdominal tear. There is no way he'll be 100% for this one. I'm kind of thinking that he might withdraw from the event, especially after the first match.

 

[TennisFan3]

He won two of the last three sets at USO.

In case you missed it.

And very nearly took control of the 5th set.

That's what he learned. The learning was during, not after. The best kind of learning. He knows how to play him.

Medvedevious isn't some pigeon, he is a fast learner and does not give up or lose confidence.

Canadian Open and USO... You notice no betterment there?...

I agree with this. I think Medvedev has learned how to handle Nadal.
And yes, Nadal is a better player and he would be favored.
However, indoor WTF is practically the WORST SURFACE on tour for Nadal. Even worse than Paris Bercy, as the ball doesn't penetrate at all in the WTF and takes no spin.

So Medvedev will be favored against Nadal. IMO the Russian could even win in straight sets.
Nadal will face an uphill battle in the WTF IMO with the 3 set format and unfavorable surface. It would have been wise to skip it. He is not 100%. He will lose a ton of matches and not make the SF.
That will impact his confidence for AO next year. It would have been different had Nadal used time off to prepare and gone to AO fresh with his UsOpen victory. Now it will be after a battering at the WTF.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

I agree with this. I think Medvedev has learned how to handle Nadal.
And yes, Nadal is a better player and he would be favored.
However, indoor WTF is practically the WORST SURFACE on tour for Nadal. Even worse than Paris Bercy, as the ball doesn't penetrate at all in the WTF and takes no spin.

So Medvedev will be favored against Nadal. IMO the Russian could even win in straight sets.
Nadal will face an uphill battle in the WTF IMO with the 3 set format and unfavorable surface. It would have been wise to skip it. He is not 100%. He will lose a ton of matches and not make the SF.
That will impact his confidence for AO next year. It would have been different had Nadal used time off to prepare and gone to AO fresh with his UsOpen victory. Now it will be after a battering at the WTF.

I agree with everything except AO confidence. Rafa has only two AO confidence issues and those are playing RF and Novak there. That's where his confidence plummets. AO starts months after WTF and confidence-wise there isn't a strong connection. After a long winter break most players anyway need to regain confidence, can't rely on the confidence they had winning months earlier, or not that much.

 

[TennisFan3]

I agree with everything except AO confidence. Rafa has only two AO confidence issues and those are playing RF and Novak there. That's where his confidence plummets. AO starts months after WTF and confidence-wise there isn't a strong connection. After a long winter break most players anyway need to regain confidence, can't rely on the confidence they had winning months earlier, or not that much.

Well, you are discounting the young gen.
Consider if Medvedev beats Nadal in straights at WTF. Suddenly Rafa has a Fedovic type issue with Medvedev too. Because honestly the Russian dominated the 2nd half of the match at the UsOpen and a potential WTF victory would put the balance in his favor for the future. And I believe Medvedev will challenge the big 3 in all hardcourt slams next year - so he's bound to be a formidable foe.

Also Nadal has good records against the nextgen as he has beaten them at slams and big tournaments. But what if Rafa loses to Zverev/TsiTsiPas? I would have laughed to think that those players would be favored against Nadal. But this is LITERALLY the tournament and the surface where Nadal plays his WORST tennis. Look at his WTF record for the past 12 years. IF there is one place where these guys would have chances against Rafa, it is the London O2.
So any loss to these guys will also impact Nadal's confidence for next year.

All in all, it would have been just best for Nadal to skip the WTF. Especially because he is not 100% and not playing his best. That way he could meet all these players on more favorable ground IMO. Nothing good will come out for Nadal in this tournament for sure.

 

[junior74]

Nadal has the easiest group, so he should be fresh n' ready to the semis.

 

[Sport]

Nadal has the easiest group, so he should be fresh n' ready to the semis.

But in the ATP finals there are only relatively easier groups. In other words, no group can be easy. Medvedev and Tsitsipas are never easy rivals and Zverev depends on the day, as he is so irregular.

Ralph should be fresh if he was physically perfect before the tournament, but that is not the case: he is still recovering from an injury.

 

[junior74]

But in the ATP finals there are only relatively easier groups. In other words, no group can be easy. Medvedev and Tsitsipas are never easy rivals and Zverev depends on the day, as he is so irregular.

He should be fresh if he was physically perfect before the tournament.

The premise for the thread seems to be Djokerer group is easier. I disagree.

But who cares about Mickey Mouse tournaments, anyway?

 

[King No1e]

Prediction: Thiem will be second in his group, RF won’t make it to SF.

Thiem? I see a better chance for Berrettini and Federer.

 

[RaulRamirez]

Yeah, YE#1 is on Nole's racquet now.

Not completely. Novak can win the tourney and Rafa can still retain #1. 640 points is a good cushion.

 

[Sport]

The premise for the thread seems to be Djokerer group is easier. I disagree.

But who cares about Mickey Mouse tournaments, anyway?

I agree that Djokovic does NOT have the easier group. In fact, he has an arguably stronger group than Rafa (but the difference is not giant, since in the ATP finals there are only top rivals).

 

[Lleytonstation]

I never said Nadal won't reach semis. But if he gets there he will lose.

I agree that Djokovic does NOT have the easier group. In fact, he has an arguably stronger group than Rafa (but the difference is not giant, since in the ATP finals there are only top rivals).

I don't think the group you are in is the important thing. Assuming Djoker and Fed take the two spots in their group, and Med Bear and Rafa in the other, Rafa might have to face Fed and then Djoker or vice versus.

My thought is you always want the better group as you will have to play the best or second best from the other group in the SF.

 

[Deleted member 763691]

Djokovic isn't good enough to beat Medvedev, so looks like Djokovic will lose in the SF and has no chance of finishing #1.
Rafa will make sure of this, because Rafa plays the last day of Round Robin (and can lose if necessary), so Rafa can ensure that Djokovic won't get the chance to play Rafa in a SF.
Djokovic vs. Medvedev
Nadal vs. Federer (although, Thiem is 4-2 vs. Federer, and Thiem won their last hardcourt meeting)

 

[Keizer]

How fast will these courts play? If anything close to Basel, Thiem doesn't have a chance of beating Federer.

 

[Deleted member 763691]

Was Basel as fast as Montreal?
Because Montreal was 43.6 cpi.

 

[Deleted member 763691]

 

[SaintPetros]

That's quite a bold prediction.

Has there ever been a year when RF failed the group stage? I believe just once. 2008.

40-15 tho

 

[Keizer]

Was Basel as fast as Montreal?
Because Montreal was 43.6 cpi.

Looks pretty fast - 42.1. Compare that to IW, where Thiem beat Fed.

 

[Deleted member 763691]

 

[PeoplesChamp]

Was Basel as fast as Montreal?
Because Montreal was 43.6 cpi.

Djokerless and Federless too.

 

[StrongRule]

What about the group matches? Opinions?

Depends on Nadal's form and health. Not optimistic about his chances.

 

[StrongRule]

He has all the Next Gens in his group. With the exception of Medvedev, the others will bend over for him.

He could have got someone like Fed in his group, so things could have been worse.

Zverev is a very tough matchup for him on hardcourt. Their first 2 matches couldn't be closer. IMO Zverev is potentially the biggest threat to Nadal in the group. Medvedev is close though-easier matchup but he is in very good form and very strong mentally.

 

[Deleted member 763691]

Rafa is one of the best indoor players in the world.
Rafa beat Federer in straight sets at 2013 World Tour Finals, and Rafa beat Djokovic in straight sets at 2010 World Tour Finals.
Rafa beat Wawrinka in straight sets at 2013 and 2015 World Tour Finals, and Rafa beat Murray at 2010 and 2015 World Tour Finals.
But, Medvedev matches up better with Djokovic and will probably be the reason why Rafa finishes #1

 

[Ray Mercer]

Montreal has always been straight clay as evidenced by Federer’s results there. The best courts for judging talent and all court play are in Dubai. Those are hands down the nicest courts in the world. If I were running the tour 90 percent of tournaments would be on Dubai like courts.

 

[Ray Mercer]

Rafa is one of the best indoor players in the world.
Rafa beat Federer in straight sets at 2013 World Tour Finals, and Rafa beat Djokovic in straight sets at 2010 World Tour Finals.
Rafa beat Wawrinka in straight sets at 2013 and 2015 World Tour Finals, and Rafa beat Murray at 2010 and 2015 World Tour Finals.
But, Medvedev matches up better with Djokovic and will probably be the reason why Rafa finishes #1

Wow he bet an ancient Injured Federer once in 2013 in Federer’s worst year on the tour. Federer beat the living hell out of him in 2011 when Nadal was at his absolute peak.

 

[topher]

Thiem? I see a better chance for Berrettini and Federer.

The only way I see Berretini making semis is a kind of fluky sequence. Like if Thiem beats Fed in a surprise win to open, assume Berretini will lose to Novak (him beating Novak would be a true shock). Then Fed loses his motivation and loses against a redlining Berretini in the following match, while Thiem expends his energy trying and failing to to beat Novak. Berritini could then beat a tired Thiem to make the semis.