Medvedev would get better, but his basic game was the same when he played Ancienterer, but showed very little signs that he could do anything vs. him, especially return Federer’s first serve as he could not read it at all and his preferred return position did him zero favors.
Medvedev vs. Federer (all on Med’s favorite surface vs. an Old Man)
0-3, .70 dominance ratio, 44.3% of total points won, 68.8% hold percentage, 9.1% break percentage, 16.1% of 1st serve return points won
Roddick vs. Federer
3-21, .73 dominance ratio, 45.8% of total points won, 78.3% hold percentage, 6.8% break percentage, 19.1% of 1st serve return points won.
In 2018, Meddy had a world-class BH and very good return. In their first match in Shanghai (medium fast court), Med was coming off of wins in Winston-Salem and Tokyo (a medium fast court) where he destroyed Raonic and Shapo, and then obliterated Kei in the final with one of 2018’s most dominant Finals’ wins, i.e., a 3.69 dominance ratio, losing just a few points on serve vs. a great return player playing in Japan. Against Federer, he plays well in longer rallies against the old man but cannot do anything returning serve. Federer wins, 1.26 dominance ratio, wins 82% of first serve points.
Then they meet in Basel (a medium fast court) a few weeks later. Federer saw his game and then dissected it. Federer wins, 1.52 dominance ratio, 87% of first serve points won.
Then they meet in Miami (slow hard court) and Med is top 15 and a top 10 hard court ELOer, and Med gets absolutely embarrassed by an even older Federer. Med was close to his peak return game in 2019. Federer wins, 1.71 dominance ratio, 85% of first serve points won.
There is NOTHING to suggest that Med would do anything of note against Peakerer/Primerer. For a player with a good return, he put in terrible performances against the Fed serve, something Roddick also did with a much weaker return.