However, you must remember that this kind of probability is always independent. Just because butt monkey and murray have been in the same half 13/14 times doesn't mean there isn't a 50% chance they will be in the same half again on the next draw.
It's like having children. If you had 4 girls in a row, surely you would think the next would be a boy (assuming it was a 50/50 chance). However, the 5th child still has a 50% chance of being a girl.
Thus, to the statistically-educated, this is not surprising.
I don't see how this has any importance apart from the 2011 US Open draw (or the 2012 Australian Open draw if you want to look already one ahead). Yes, we shouldn't asume that draw has to be different more than 50% chance because of what happened in the past. I don't see how this takes away from the unlikeliness of the Federer/Djokovic 'SF-event' so many times in a row though. The chances of it happening like 14 times in a row again in the future aren't going to be lower because it already happend 14 times in row in the past, but that doesn't take away that the chance is already very low on it's own.
I dont see the big deal here. Federer vascillated across 1,2,3 rankings. Djoker operated 4,3,2,1. Nadal was mostly 1 and 2.
Draws are based on rankings and so even when the draw changed, probably their ranking was such, that Fed-Djo faced each other more often than not.
I would be lying if i say i am not suspecting some sort of rigging. I actually do but i still give some benefit of doubt to ATP.
Rankings aren't that important. Only 1 and 2 are important in this case, because they can't be in the same half of the draw. Yes, Federer and Djokovic propably have never been 1 and 2 on the same time. However, if they aren't 1 or 2 they could still end up in either half of the draw. Meaning them being in the same half of the draw so many times in a row is very unlikely.
On another note, let's see who gaines or loses by this (right now and simplyfied a bit assuming it's only between them):
Nadal: Fed is his pigeon, so for him it's best to have Federer in his SF on first sight. Best chance of getting to the final. Now he might have to beat both Murray and Djokovic to win, if Federer was in his draw he would only have to beat one of them in the final. He's screwed on first sight. However it's also hugely important for him not to play Djokovic, but then Murray or Federer will have to beat Djokovic. So it's either Federer SF and then play Murray in final or Murray SF and then play Federer in final (assuming Djokovic loses). Only the order changes, he will have to beat Murray anyway. I would say Federer has the best chance of taking out Murray. It's what happened in the French after all.So it just comes down to whatever you find more important. Being certain to play Federer in SF and play only winner of Djokovic/Murray or having the best chance of not having to play Djokovic. Though call.
Federer: Main thing is avoiding Nadal in SF. He might not even face Nadal if Nadal loses to Murray. That's a plus. No chance of avoiding Djokovic now however. There is no chance of him avoiding Djokovic and Nadal both though and I would say avoiding Nadal is more important. He gaines.
Murray: He's such a tough call. Out of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, I think he prefers Nadal. Now he plays Nadal SF and only winner Djokovic/Federer. He gaines a bit.
Djokovic: Since he is always on the other side of Nadal, I would say it's best for him to have Federer/Nadal SF, with probably Nadal in final then which he has owned this year. Now he has to play Federer in SF, the last player to whom he lost to in a slam and he might miss Nadal. He's screwed.
There, I hope I didn't contradict myself
Maybe it's better the draw just opens up a bit and little of this still holds true. Anyone up for a Fish-Roddick final?
