Is Federer playing Dubai at expense of not playing Indian Wells or Miami - a No Brainer for You

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Do you people think Federer is 70 years old?

Last year he played a ton at the AO and played a ton of long 5 setters, and even after ALL THAT, he planned on playing Dubai, IW, Miami.

He went out fast at the Dubai due to a lapse of concentration buth went not only deep but all the way deep and won both IW and Miami.

This year he has barely broke a sweat at the AO, barely played 1 5 setter in the final that was quite short and strolled through the rest of the AO, even winning some matches due to opponent retiring.
Why would he ever want to skip either Dubai, Miami or IW? Specially if he plans to have a huge break after by not playing any clay tournaments, can someone explain this ridicilous logic from some posters?
I wouldn't go that far. His 5 setters last year at the AO were actually quite short. Heck, all 3 of them were shorter than Nadal's match against Schwartzman this year at the AO.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
The thing is, he knows he is fully capable of doing it, considering the draw. Legacy wise, IW and Miami do nothing for his career at this point, just by winning them both back to back and beating Nadal in both along the way last year, he really has nothing left to prove there. But, if he get this, that is a huge feather in his cap and he knows it. Federer is trail blazer by nature, he wants to be the one paving the way for what is possible, 20 slams, oldest ever world number one... these are the things they will talk about when they write the book on Federer...those landmark moments.
Rosewall was winning slams at 37. I guess the computerized rankings didn't appear yet at that time.

A shame, as Rosewall would be the one holding the record otherwise.

Ain't that right, @thrust? ;)
 

NuBas

Legend
Dumb question but why would Dubai ATP 500 be better helping him reach #1 than either Master 1000s? Is it just helping him reach it faster?
 
D

Deleted member 743561

Guest
I would say that Miami can rot. Except for... have you all seen the new center court?! Wimby's got competition state-side!

CpBnz63XEAEJDqg.0.jpg
 

EloQuent

Legend
Dumb question but why would Dubai ATP 500 be better helping him reach #1 than either Master 1000s? Is it just helping him reach it faster?

In the week of Dubai + Acapulco, Nadal is defending more points, 300 to only 45. Federer getting 500 (+455) would give him #1 easy.

But then after, Federer is defending 1000 each week and needs to win + Nadal doing really poorly to increase point difference.

Is that clear enough?
 

Slightly D1

Professional
Well if he has the guaranteed rest period for the clay stretch I don't see why he couldn't play out all of these tournaments right now.
 

NuBas

Legend
In the week of Dubai + Acapulco, Nadal is defending more points, 300 to only 45. Federer getting 500 (+455) would give him #1 easy.

But then after, Federer is defending 1000 each week and needs to win + Nadal doing really poorly to increase point difference.

Is that clear enough?

Yeah, I guess I just don't understanding the point system but I see what you are saying. I made a thread a while back cause I did not really understand how it worked.

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/do-atp-ranking-points-reset.579614/
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
I think the old man should give it a try. The competition will be weak so why not vulture an easy title every once in a while if it is going to benefit your legacy big time?

I mean when was the last time Fed vultured an easy title? ;)
 

EloQuent

Legend
Yeah, I guess I just don't understanding the point system but I see what you are saying. I made a thread a while back cause I did not really understand how it worked.

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/do-atp-ranking-points-reset.579614/
it's based on the last 52 weeks, so one year.

Let's say Player A starts a 500 tournament at 5000 points. Last year he won it. If he doesn't play, he'll have 4500 points the next week. If he plays but only gets 300 points, he'll have 4800.
 

NuBas

Legend
it's based on the last 52 weeks, so one year.

Let's say Player A starts a 500 tournament at 5000 points. Last year he won it. If he doesn't play, he'll have 4500 points the next week. If he plays but only gets 300 points, he'll have 4800.

Thanks that helps, its very interesting how it works, been following tennis but never got into learning about points.
 

justasport

Professional
Roger's schedule for the remainder of 2018:

Dubai
Indian Wells
Madrid
French open
Halle
Wimbledon
Cincinnati
US Open
Basel
Paris
Masters Cup
 

RF-18

Talk Tennis Guru
I think the old man should give it a try. The competition will be weak so why not vulture an easy title every once in a while if it is going to benefit your legacy big time?

I mean when was the last time Fed vultured an easy title? ;)

Feds legacy is hard to make better than what it is. This no1 thing is a drop in the ocean really except that he could become the oldest no1 in the history. I doubt his 302 weeks at #1 will ever be broken. Djokovic looked like he could challenge it, but he dropped off.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Yep. It's so much bigger than any slam, tbh--especially now that he's got the magic 20. ;)
Totally disagree. Being the oldest #1 is literally nothing compared to another slam. He'll become #1 anyway if Nadal fails to defend most of his 4,000 clay points. Who could possibly put a ranking ahead of a slam!?
 
Absolute no brainer.

Since he’s probably not playing clay, he’ll have a hard time getting to #1. If he’s not #1, IW and Miami are useless to him. Last year, he wanted to build momentum off the injured 2016 and continue to press his aggressive game with the return of service and neo-backhand.

Now he doesn’t need to do anything but rest until the grass season. His best chance to get to #1 is by playing Dubai or Rotterdam and then play the rest of season preparing for Wimbledon.

After thst, skip Miami and everything until Stuttgart.
 

MasturB

Legend
I prefer he not play Miami. The conditions there are too slow for his game.

Dubai is fast. Indian Wells plays faster than Miami.

Get #1 out of the way even if it's only for a week or 2 so people will stop speculating about it.
 

merlinpinpin

Hall of Fame
Totally disagree. Being the oldest #1 is literally nothing compared to another slam. He'll become #1 anyway if Nadal fails to defend most of his 4,000 clay points. Who could possibly put a ranking ahead of a slam!?

Recency bias, imho. You obviously bought Sampras' argument that it's all about the slams. Well it is--now. But in 50, or even 20 years' time? (If Fed's GS record is out of reach, the ATP will need another narrative to sell their next, fledgling GOAT to the masses.) Any way you look at it, getting to #1 is a much, much bigger achievement than winning a slam (and ever more so at 36). No way he's going to let that pass, imho. I can definitely see the lure of #20, but #21? That's a case of #20 + #1 >>>>>>> #21, and basic maths be damned, if you ask me. ;)

For the record, unless it's totally out of his reach, I also think he'll go for #1 at 37 (ie some time during the summer/fall) *and* YE #1, too. He won't make it a priority, but if the chance is there, he'll try and take it.

Edit: plus, you seem to imply that playing Dubai would mean missing Wimbledon, whereas is about as far removed from Wimby as can be (yes, Rotterdam would be even better, and I've said so repeatedly), so playing both shouldn't be an issue--like, at all. ;)
 
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Sputnik Bulgorov

Professional
The current record holder for oldest no. 1 is Agassi at 33 years in 2003 of I'm not mistaken. I just feel that Roger really deserves that record more given what he's achieved in 2017/18 eclipses everything Agassi did in 2002/2003. If he became no. 1 again, he wouldn't just break the record, he'd obliterate it at 36 going on 37. He might never get another shot of his level drops this year.
 
The current record holder for oldest no. 1 is Agassi at 33 years in 2003 of I'm not mistaken. I just feel that Roger really deserves that record more given what he's achieved in 2017/18 eclipses everything Agassi did in 2002/2003. If he became no. 1 again, he wouldn't just break the record, he'd obliterate it at 36 going on 37. He might never get another shot of his level drops this year.

He will never get another shot at it, not least because of how the rankings work.

He will need to have another year, where his main rival for that place does better than him, but he himself still has a room to improve the next year, while his opponent remains within a striking distance.

It requires two years in a row where he will play at a very high level, his opponent for that spot doesn't outdo him in both and there are no other contenders.

Very specific set of circumstances.

:cool:
 

KINGROGER

G.O.A.T.
Play Dubai for starters. Any reasonable form will see him become the oldest number 1.

Then play IW anyway. Huge break after then before Grass season.

Not same situation as Montreal where USO was round the corner.
 

KINGROGER

G.O.A.T.
Totally disagree. Being the oldest #1 is literally nothing compared to another slam. He'll become #1 anyway if Nadal fails to defend most of his 4,000 clay points. Who could possibly put a ranking ahead of a slam!?
Playing Dubai in no way harms his chance of another slam.
 

smoledman

G.O.A.T.
All that matters for Federer at this point is winning more slams. His goal is to push it out so far that he will never lose the record in his lifetime like Pete did.
 
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