Ivanisevic: Nadal has no chance vs Djokovic

[socallefty]

Many of these experts are missing the slow aspect of the FO conditions and focusing only on the low bounce. The low bounce is a disadvantage to Nadal as his topspin stays in the hitting zone of his opponents instead of jumping to head-level quickly. But, the heavy, slow conditions are making it impossible to hit through his defenses which favors him. He was always the best defender on clay even in hot conditions and now, he is even better.

One of the main reasons that Nadal is dominant on clay is because he takes away the will of his opponents to keep fighting because he grinds so well and plays fantastic defense on every rally - they stop wanting to fight after a while subconsciously. I think this aspect of his game is helped by his conditions and we saw what happened to a heavy hitter like Sinner in the third set (breadstick!) after a couple of closely contested sets.

I think Djokovic will try to hit through Nadal if they play in the final as he has never had the patience to outlast Nadal on clay. Djokovic always plays more offensively than usual against Nadal on all surfaces because he knows that Nadal is a better counter-puncher than he is and so, he has to take the initiative. His serve is usually a big part of why he wins against Nadal on other surfaces. In this tournament, serves are neutralized and this favors Nadal even more. In addition, there are more longer points than usual even for clay and Nadal is winning 65% of rallies that are more than 4 shots. Even if you win 55% of all points in a match, you usually have an easy win and so, the high number of longer points being played favors Nadal also.

Based on all that, I disagree with McEnroe and Goran that the conditions favor Djokovic.

 

[WildRevolver]

It's even worse for them when you consider that Rafa at least won the same amount of US Opens as Novak since 2013.

But since that 2015 French Open QF Nadal has triple the amount of Roland Garros as Djokovic.

It says a lot that Djoker and Fed fans always have to put time parameters around these arguments. Guess what, all the matches counted, no matter what time frame.

 

[Born_to_slice]

As is their treatment regimes. He will be fine.

Some injuries you just have to sit out, no matter how much money you have. Maybe something you should consider if you have pains that never go away.

 

[TennisFan3]

In this tournament, serves are neutralized and this favors Nadal even more as there are more longer points than usual even for clay and a Nadal is winning 65% of rallies that’s re more than 4 shots. Even if you win 55% of all points in a match, you usually have an easy win and so, the high number of longer points being payed favors Nadal also.

Great post overall. Disagree with this part.
Consistently look at the stat sheet of Novak vs Nadal. Djokovic ACTUALLY wins a HIGHER PERCENTAGE of rallies over 4+ shots. Across all their matches and all surfaces. Nadal ends up usually winning the shorter points. Hell, even against Sinner Nadal won more rallies less than 4 shots.
In fact Novak has been the better defender of the two. Nadal CANNOT penetrate the court at all (because of his spin) so he tries to go for too much and misses.
Novak often resets the point vs Nadal because Nadal cannot KILL the ball when he is in ascendancy. The pattern you are describing happened before 2011 when Nadal used to be faster.

More recently, the only time Nadal has had success against Novak is when the Spaniard himself is ultra-aggressive. He goes to the net and goes for the kill. He CANNOT outlast Novak from the baseline.
This happened in Wimb 2018 which Nadal narrowly lost and F.O 2013/2014. When Nadal beats Novak on clay it is because he can make the ball go high and cause Novak to miss because of height or being out of position. Ditto in the UsOpen 2013/2010 that Nadal won. This was by aggression not by superior defense.

Given that this court is SUPER SLOW and hard to hit through AND the fact that Nadal's ball is bouncing 3.9 inches Lower on average - I COMPLETELY agree with McEnroe and Goran that the conditions favor Djokovic. Nadal won't be able to get the ball high enough on Novak or be the aggressor in the match.

 

[socallefty]

@TennisFan3
Read this article to see what I am referring to.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/nadal-infosys-beyond-the-numbers-rally-length-october-2020

 

[maratha_warrior]

Is this Srjdan speaking ??

 

[maratha_warrior]

Goran is talking nonsense

 

[NoleFam]

No chance for Nadal on Chatrier? Lol. Dude stop talking because you sound foolish.

 

[FRV3]

I kind of don't like Goran as Djokovic's coach. Another thing he did besides making this foolish claim was make Djokovic just play his game instead of finding the statistical weakness of his opponents like he usually does. Dude, Djokovic can do pretty much everything besides hit good overheads consistently. Let him use the opponents' weaknesses against them. Also the big second serve is just foolish for Djokovic. It makes sense for guys like Zverev.

 

[r2473]

https://www.b92.net/sport/rolandgarros2020/vesti.php?nav_id=1744207

Using Google Translate: Ivanisevic says.

"We are watching Nadal and everything is the same as always, but it is not the same.
These are perfect conditions for Novak, but not for Nadal. Nadal will always beat the ones he needs to beat.
I am counting on Novak - Nadal final in which, in my opinion, Nadal has no chance in such conditions, on this kind of clay court and with Novak who has already entered his head.
I went a little too far, but I think Novak is the number one favorite of Roland Garros ", said Ivanišević

Nadal was furious at these comments. In response he let loose on Goran by saying:

"I will try to play my best tennis, no"

 

[esm]

https://www.b92.net/sport/rolandgarros2020/vesti.php?nav_id=1744207

Using Google Translate: Ivanisevic says.

"We are watching Nadal and everything is the same as always, but it is not the same.
These are perfect conditions for Novak, but not for Nadal. Nadal will always beat the ones he needs to beat.
I am counting on Novak - Nadal final in which, in my opinion, Nadal has no chance in such conditions, on this kind of clay court and with Novak who has already entered his head.
I went a little too far, but I think Novak is the number one favorite of Roland Garros ", said Ivanišević

Cheque is in the mail?

 

[wangs78]

Honestly this is the reason why Djokovic doesn't have the kind of fanbase that Fed and Nadal have. He is surrounded by people - some he did not choose, like his father, and others that he did, like Goran - who, to put it simply, lack class.

 

[TennisFan3]

Nadal was furious at these comments. In response he let loose on Goran by saying:

"I will try to play my best tennis, no"

It won't be enough, no? Getting older, heavy balls and slow conditions with no bounce.

 

[TennisFan3]

Cheque is in the mail?

Haha. Perhaps. Who knows.

 

[One Handed Dynasty]

Nadal winning the French is the safest bet in sports, up there with the Tim Duncan Spurs making the playoffs and the Brady-belicheck Pats winning their division. And these conditions are a double edged sword because while yes, Rafa can not generate his usual levels of topspin, Djoker has dominated him since 2011 by taking his backhand inside the baseline and going down the line to keep the rally height low and stop Rafa from hitting inside out forehands. The slower conditions mean that Rafa will get more inside out forehands than normal, so he’s not the underdog he’s being portrayed to be.

 

[Federev]

I want to know who Federer fans are cheering for if it's a Nadal/Djokovic final.
Have they warmed up to Nadal finally and don't mind if he ties Federer in the Slam count?
Or are they pinning all their hopes on Djokovic now to stop Nadal from tying Federer?
Also, I still put Nadal as the favourite. A French Open final takes a whole different level of mental strength. First set will be crucial for Djokovic.

Goran might be right - at least that the conditions highly favor Djoker - not Rafa.

(Novak said a more muted version of this at the start of tournament.)

But I don’t like it. It sounds trashy.

And I’d be happy to see Nadal make him eat his words.

 

[kishnabe]

Number one Favorite with "neck" issues.

 

[terribleIVAN]

Many of these experts are missing the slow aspect of the FO conditions and focusing only on the low bounce. The low bounce is a disadvantage to Nadal as his topspin stays in the hitting zone of his opponents instead of jumping to head-level quickly. But, the heavy, slow conditions are making it impossible to hit through his defenses which favors him. He was always the best defender on clay even in hot conditions and now, he is even better.

One of the main reasons that Nadal is dominant on clay is because he takes away the will of his opponents to keep fighting because he grinds so well and plays fantastic defense on every rally - they stop wanting to fight after a while subconsciously. I think this aspect of his game is helped by his conditions and we saw what happened to a heavy hitter like Sinner in the third set (breadstick!) after a couple of closely contested sets.

I think Djokovic will try to hit through Nadal if they play in the final as he has never had the patience to outlast Nadal on clay. Djokovic always plays more offensively than usual against Nadal on all surfaces because he knows that Nadal is a better counter-puncher than he is and so, he has to take the initiative. His serve is usually a big part of why he wins against Nadal on other surfaces. In this tournament, serves are neutralized and this favors Nadal even more. In addition, there are more longer points than usual even for clay and Nadal is winning 65% of rallies that are more than 4 shots. Even if you win 55% of all points in a match, you usually have an easy win and so, the high number of longer points being played favors Nadal also.

Based on all that, I disagree with McEnroe and Goran that the conditions favor Djokovic.

Great analysis.

But there's 2 new factors that appeared :

1. Rafa didn't prepare well: he might make way more UE than normally if he reaches Sunday without having found his form and acclimated to the lower bounce.

2. Novak might be tired after 6 rds: although 1 year younger, he doesn't have Rafa's diesel engine and we saw vs Kachanov and Busta he's always looking to drop shot to conserve energy. Should the Tsitsipas match go 5 sets, there might not be much gas left in the tank for the final. Tired Novak makes way more UE than usual.

This matchup might be decided by who makes the less UE, because neither can hit through the court as usual.

 

[socallefty]

Great analysis.
This matchup might be decided by who makes the less UE, because neither can hit through the court as usual.

I think Nadal will make less UFEs and Djokovic will have more winners. If Djokovic keeps his UFE numbers down to be somewhat in the range of Nadal, he will have a good chance. If he makes a lot more UFE than Nadal, he will lose.

I haven’t seen any stats on how many UFEs Nadal is making at this FO - is it more than usual? It can’t be too bad as he hasn’t lost a set yet.

 

[Sorry_to_tell_you_mate]

I don't know what's more embarrassing: if some old geezers acting like kids or the crowd laughing and sucking up to them.

 

[The_Order]

I think Nadal will make less UFEs and Djokovic will have more winners. If Djokovic keeps his UFE numbers down to be somewhat in the range of Nadal, he will have a good chance. If he makes a lot more UFE than Nadal, he will lose.

I haven’t seen any stats on how many UFEs Nadal is making at this FO - is it more than usual? It can’t be too bad as he hasn’t lost a set yet.

Made noticeably a lot more in the first two sets against Sinner then he has for the rest of the tourney...

A lot of that had to do with the way Sinner was playing, he put pressure on Rafa in the rallies, made him try and go for more. Plus Rafa took a bit longer to find his range too in that match imo.

 

[Druss]

I'm bracing for this place to go bonkers with Djoko fans claiming Nadal was peak, if he did beat him in the final (as Goran predicts).

 

[skypadq]

why goran this guy is such a dull

 

[Breakpointerer]

why goran this guy is such a dull

skypad what this mean

 

[Tennis_Hands]

I'm bracing for this place to go bonkers with Djoko fans claiming Nadal was peak, if he did beat him in the final (as Goran predicts).

After the golden age comes the age of the paupers, so it is a logical development for "this place".

 

[NatF]

I wonder how much of Nadal's level in the Sinner match was down to the late start and cold conditions. He's not looked great by his lofty standards anyway but I think the match with Diego will tell us a lot more. It's not like Djokovic was on-fire against PCB either. I do think Djokovic will beat Nadal if they play here, I think the match-up in these conditons is really slanted in his favour but counting out Nadal on Chatrier is asking to get your heart broken lol.

 

[weakera]

Many of these experts are missing the slow aspect of the FO conditions and focusing only on the low bounce. The low bounce is a disadvantage to Nadal as his topspin stays in the hitting zone of his opponents instead of jumping to head-level quickly. But, the heavy, slow conditions are making it impossible to hit through his defenses which favors him. He was always the best defender on clay even in hot conditions and now, he is even better.

One of the main reasons that Nadal is dominant on clay is because he takes away the will of his opponents to keep fighting because he grinds so well and plays fantastic defense on every rally - they stop wanting to fight after a while subconsciously. I think this aspect of his game is helped by his conditions and we saw what happened to a heavy hitter like Sinner in the third set (breadstick!) after a couple of closely contested sets.

I think Djokovic will try to hit through Nadal if they play in the final as he has never had the patience to outlast Nadal on clay. Djokovic always plays more offensively than usual against Nadal on all surfaces because he knows that Nadal is a better counter-puncher than he is and so, he has to take the initiative. His serve is usually a big part of why he wins against Nadal on other surfaces. In this tournament, serves are neutralized and this favors Nadal even more. In addition, there are more longer points than usual even for clay and Nadal is winning 65% of rallies that are more than 4 shots. Even if you win 55% of all points in a match, you usually have an easy win and so, the high number of longer points being played favors Nadal also.

Based on all that, I disagree with McEnroe and Goran that the conditions favor Djokovic.

Interesting analysis

 

[StrongRule]

Many of these experts are missing the slow aspect of the FO conditions and focusing only on the low bounce. The low bounce is a disadvantage to Nadal as his topspin stays in the hitting zone of his opponents instead of jumping to head-level quickly. But, the heavy, slow conditions are making it impossible to hit through his defenses which favors him. He was always the best defender on clay even in hot conditions and now, he is even better.

One of the main reasons that Nadal is dominant on clay is because he takes away the will of his opponents to keep fighting because he grinds so well and plays fantastic defense on every rally - they stop wanting to fight after a while subconsciously. I think this aspect of his game is helped by his conditions and we saw what happened to a heavy hitter like Sinner in the third set (breadstick!) after a couple of closely contested sets.

I think Djokovic will try to hit through Nadal if they play in the final as he has never had the patience to outlast Nadal on clay. Djokovic always plays more offensively than usual against Nadal on all surfaces because he knows that Nadal is a better counter-puncher than he is and so, he has to take the initiative. His serve is usually a big part of why he wins against Nadal on other surfaces. In this tournament, serves are neutralized and this favors Nadal even more. In addition, there are more longer points than usual even for clay and Nadal is winning 65% of rallies that are more than 4 shots. Even if you win 55% of all points in a match, you usually have an easy win and so, the high number of longer points being played favors Nadal also.

Based on all that, I disagree with McEnroe and Goran that the conditions favor Djokovic.

Slow conditions? Djokovic is hitting bombs here. His serve and forehand are extremely powerful in this "tournament".

 

[I Am Finnish]

Is this Srjdan speaking ??

StrongRule

 

[mike danny]

I want to know who Federer fans are cheering for if it's a Nadal/Djokovic final.
Have they warmed up to Nadal finally and don't mind if he ties Federer in the Slam count?
Or are they pinning all their hopes on Djokovic now to stop Nadal from tying Federer?
Also, I still put Nadal as the favourite. A French Open final takes a whole different level of mental strength. First set will be crucial for Djokovic.

Nadal will tie Fed anyway even if he loses at this FO. The biggest drawback is that we'll have to see Nadal tie Fed AND Ultronians being unbearable if he becomes the onky one to beat Rafa in a FO final.

 

[Azure]

 

[BladeDaywalker]

Honestly, the disrespect shown to the God of Clay by Goran was insane.

Goran should consider himself lucky that he never had to go against Nadal at Roland Garros.

It would not have been pretty to watch.

 

[EllieK]

Maybe Goran will need some extra gravy to swallow all that crow he will be eating

 

[TennisFan3]

https://www.b92.net/sport/rolandgarros2020/vesti.php?nav_id=1744207

Using Google Translate: Ivanisevic says.

"We are watching Nadal and everything is the same as always, but it is not the same.
These are perfect conditions for Novak, but not for Nadal. Nadal will always beat the ones he needs to beat.
I am counting on Novak - Nadal final in which, in my opinion, Nadal has no chance in such conditions, on this kind of clay court and with Novak who has already entered his head.
I went a little too far, but I think Novak is the number one favorite of Roland Garros ", said Ivanišević

This prediction by Ivansivec did NOT age well.

 

[BackhandDTL]

This prediction by Ivansivec did NOT age well.

Neither did yours mate.

 

[M Dean]

I'm a big fan of Goran, but this was not the best thing to say about Rafa.
You don' t say that about a defending and 12-time champion.
Ok, now 13-time champion.
Congratulations Rafa!

 

[MeatTornado]

This prediction by Ivansivec did NOT age well.

Only slightly worse than yours

 

[Deleted member 762343]

As of now, Nadal has no chance against Djokovic. Because the tournament is over.

 

[DSH]

Морон, Горан!

 

[Sorry_to_tell_you_mate]

This prediction by Ivansivec did NOT age well.

Aged worse than a cheap wine.

 

[Nostradamus]

What was Ivanisevic thinking ?? Was he afreaid Novak would fire him if he saids something else ??

 

[Backspin1183]

This was very disrespectful comment from Goran. Very happy with the bagel in the first set.

 

[RelentlessAttack]

Lol Goran

 

[Born_to_slice]

This prediction by Ivansivec did NOT age well.

 

[ChrisRF]

Of course Djokovic was never going to win this match. But it was just a bit of trash talking like in boxing where the underdog always says how he will knockout the champ. It is to hype the match and maybe a try to make the favourite nervous. Nothing wrong with that, but you have to be able to deal with the mockery if the prediction likely goes wrong.

 

[weakera]

Goran is just an absolute clown. Regardless of whether he believed it or was trying to motivate Djokovic or play mind games - he is a clown, plain and simple.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Obviously, this aged horribly.

Actually, before he became Novak's coach, I remember Goran would always say that he's the biggest Nadal fan.

StrongRule = Goran confirmed

 

[terribleIVAN]

Novak might be tired after 6 rds: although 1 year younger, he doesn't have Rafa's diesel engine and we saw vs Kachanov and Busta he's always looking to drop shot to conserve energy. Should the Tsitsipas match go 5 sets, there might not be much gas left in the tank for the final. Tired Novak makes way more UE than usual.

This matchup might be decided by who makes the less UE, because neither can hit through the court as usual.

Well, turns out Novak's legs were toast after 6 clay matches, and he had no answer for Rafa's howitzers.

Since there's no cure for old age, i can safely claim Rafa doesn't have anything to fear from Novak at this tournament anymore.

He won huge today history-wise.

 

[Rafa24]

VAMOS!!!!! #20!!!!

 

[Xemi666]

Many of these experts are missing the slow aspect of the FO conditions and focusing only on the low bounce. The low bounce is a disadvantage to Nadal as his topspin stays in the hitting zone of his opponents instead of jumping to head-level quickly. But, the heavy, slow conditions are making it impossible to hit through his defenses which favors him. He was always the best defender on clay even in hot conditions and now, he is even better.

One of the main reasons that Nadal is dominant on clay is because he takes away the will of his opponents to keep fighting because he grinds so well and plays fantastic defense on every rally - they stop wanting to fight after a while subconsciously. I think this aspect of his game is helped by his conditions and we saw what happened to a heavy hitter like Sinner in the third set (breadstick!) after a couple of closely contested sets.

I think Djokovic will try to hit through Nadal if they play in the final as he has never had the patience to outlast Nadal on clay. Djokovic always plays more offensively than usual against Nadal on all surfaces because he knows that Nadal is a better counter-puncher than he is and so, he has to take the initiative. His serve is usually a big part of why he wins against Nadal on other surfaces. In this tournament, serves are neutralized and this favors Nadal even more. In addition, there are more longer points than usual even for clay and Nadal is winning 65% of rallies that are more than 4 shots. Even if you win 55% of all points in a match, you usually have an easy win and so, the high number of longer points being played favors Nadal also.

Based on all that, I disagree with McEnroe and Goran that the conditions favor Djokovic.

Impressive, you were spot on with your analysis.