Meles
Bionic Poster
The speed up of WTF and Paris in 2016 through now to 2018 is well documented with Guy Fraudget finally getting his golden goose in Paris. The surface speed change has been well debated here at the end of 2017 and some like watching it and some don't. Count me out as the apparent tennis quality goes down with players more likely to make UEs and we generally have serve dominated affairs. Others like the faster matches and are bored by the intricacies of baseline play. Little doubt these are Museum slam like conditions.
So rather than argue about whether or not the courts should be faster or slower, the question for this thread is who is going to benefit? My take is that really big servers (see Isner and maybe Anderson on a roll) do well and this does make for an interesting contrast with the other beneficiary; the extremely mobile player who still can cover these courts from the baseline and whose serve is made better by the faster conditions to where they can be hard to break. Goffin is exactly this type of player and we saw him play exceptionally well at WTF last year. RBA seems suddenly resurgent and also the diminutive Dzumhur. If these players get hot on serve, they still have enough game to break. A healthy Nishikori might be able to do some damage as well.
The player who may combine all of this is Djoko who was unbroken in Shanghai (one of few to do this at Masters event) and has his peak first serve game here for 2018. Djoko clearly has the mobility to break and has a good chance of doing very, very well on serve in these conditions. Federer won't mind this environment but had a lot of trouble with Goffin last year at WTF and Simon this year in Basel. Nadal can play on fast courts so if his serve game catches fire he cold be a threat.
A lot of more clay court oriented players won't have what it takes. Cilic might finally break loose, but he's been horrible at WTF the last two years in similar conditions. Khachanov and Medvedev have the serve game and maybe enough return game. Tiafoe has a very Sock like game and that worked well last year. Basilashvili not without hope if he can hold serve. Mighty mites Simon, Schwartzman (still can't hold serve well enough), Mannarino, RBA, and Dzumhur, still alive as well.
Bottom line, despite some poor or less impressive results in 2016:
45 / 2016 ATP World Tour Finals
F I Hard Andy Murray Novak Djokovic 6-3 6-4 H2H
SF I Hard Novak Djokovic Kei Nishikori 6-1 6-1 H2H
RR A I Hard Novak Djokovic Dominic Thiem 6-7(10) 6-0 6-2 H2H
RR A I Hard Novak Djokovic Milos Raonic 7-6(6) 7-6(5) H2H
RR A I Hard Novak Djokovic David Goffin 6-1 6-2 H2H
44 / 2016 Paris Masters
QF I Hard Marin Cilic Novak Djokovic 6-4 7-6(2) H2H
R16 I Hard Novak Djokovic Grigor Dimitrov 4-6 6-2 6-3 H2H
R32 I Hard Novak Djokovic Gilles Muller 6-3 6-4 H2H
Djoko's new first serve game should allow him some smooth sailing this time around.