Post-RG, what are the odds Dr. Rafael Nadal finishes ATP YE #1 in 2022?

[FrontHeadlock]

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Right now he is 1800 points ahead of Alcaraz, and there will be no points during much of the grass season, which likely would not have been fruitful for him this year.

Given that, what are the chances he will be YE#1? Looking at the current Race totals, each of the players ranked 2-5 has some limitations and unknowns for the remainder of the season.

 

[Sorry_to_tell_you_mate]

63.47%

 

[aliceinpains]

How many times has he finished #1?

 

[Kralingen]

CYGS is about 100% chance so YE#1 around the same

 

[Steffi-forever]

How many times has he finished #1?

5 times: 2008, 2010, 2013, 2017 & 2019.

 

[GabeT]

CYGS is about 100% chance so YE#1 around the same

Is he even playing Wimby?

 

[chicagodude]

Impossible to say. It mostly depends on how much Nadal will pay himself the remainder of the year.

After that, the biggest factors are likely how much Alcaraz plays and wins (very unpredictable at his age), and how many points Medvedev again racks up in the second half of the year on hardcourt.

Of course if Nadal doesn't play at all anymore this year, then likely several players will pass him, though not many (last year his current total would've gotten him #4 in the race, and since there are a lot fewer points on offering due to WO I'd say he likely has at least #4 or even #3 already certain). Djokovic could of course also take it in the end if he plays a lot.

 

[dapchai]

CYGS is about 100% chance so YE#1 around the same

Maybe I forgot it, but how much did you bet on CYGS and what was the odd then?

 

[FrontHeadlock]

Of course if Nadal doesn't play at all anymore this year, then likely several players will pass him, though not many (last year his current total would've gotten him #4 in the race). Djokovic could of course also take it in the end if he plays a lot.

Yes but don't forget there are now fewer points on offer this year.

 

[Kralingen]

Maybe I forgot it, but how much did you bet on CYGS and what was the odd then?

It wasn't possible for me to bet on CYGS (unless there is some book that allows you to parlay futures)

But let's just say I've won enough on the first two Slams of the year individually that it's allllll gravy from here.

 

[chicagodude]

Yes but don't forget there are now fewer points on offer this year.

Yeah I already edited it. Still, at least 1 player would pass him certainly if he were not to play anymore, and likely 2.

If he can play a decent schedule the rest of the year (e.g. USO, a few HC masters, and possibly WTF) then he should be able to get the 6th YE #1