Raonic vs Isner - By the Numbers

[InvisibleSoul]

In other threads, it seems that many people think that Isner has a better service game and/or has a better return game than Raonic. However, the fact is that the numbers show that neither is true. Raonic has better stats in both departments.

This is based on official statistics here: http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/MatchFacts.aspx

Raonic is pretty clearly the best server on the tour, while Isner follows just behind.

Service Games Won
Raonic 93% (#1)
Isner 92% (#2)

1st Serve Points Won
Raonic 83% (#1)
Muller 80% (#2)
Isner 78% (#6)

2nd Serve Points Won
Federer 60% (#1)
Raonic 57% (#2)
Isner 56% (#6)

Aces Per Match
Raonic 15.59 (#1)
Isner 15.18 (#2)
Karlovic 14.64 (#3)

Now let's look at the return game.

Milos is better than Isner in all the statistics.

Return Games Won
Raonic 16% (#63)
Isner 11% (#68)

Point Won Returning 1st Serve
Raonic 27% (#59)
Isner 25% (#66)

Points Won Returning 2nd Serve
Raonic 46% (#64)
Isner 41% (#68)

Break Points Converted
Raonic 38% (#50)
Isner 31% (#68)

If Raonic is better at both his service game and return game, then it follows that he should be a better overall player than Isner. If Isner is ranked #10 right now, there is no reason why Raonic won't break into the top 10 sooner rather than later. We're not even considering the fact that Isner is 27, whereas Raonic is only 21. Much more upside and opportunity to improve for Raonic to potentially challenge for a top 5 ranking.

 

[pvaudio]

Because serving and returning differences of x% equate to an entire tennis arsenal. Obviously.

 

[redpurusha]

No, not "entire" arsenal, but the majority of it (obviously -without the sarcasm).

Because serving and returning differences of x% equate to an entire tennis arsenal. Obviously.

The numbers look very comparable and Isner is only slightly behind the other big man.

 

[rainingaces]

The stats dont tell you who they played or what surface they played on most.

The only stat that matters is isner def raonic 7-6 6-3

players have worked out a stratagy for isner now they are starting to figure raonic out.

 

[El Diablo]

Is the OP familiar with "statistically significant differences"? (and non-significant ones?)

 

[pvaudio]

No, not "entire" arsenal, but the majority of it (obviously -without the sarcasm).



The numbers look very comparable and Isner is only slightly behind the other big man.

You've completely missed the point as well. These numbers are next to worthless insofar as what the OP is implying.

If Raonic is better at both his service game and return game, then it follows that he should be a better overall player than Isner.

No, it doesn't follow at all. It also doesn't follow that most service games won = best server on tour. You only get to be considered the best server if you can back up what you just served consistently. Neither Isner nor Raonic has an after serve strategy in mind on how to construct points based on what they just chose to serve. This is exactly why people simply say that Isner and Raonic have huge serves, not that they are amazing players.

 

[pvaudio]

I also can't fathom how being 63rd best in return games won is significantly better than 68th best. 16% vs. 11% is still woeful.

 

[MasturB]

Raonic is 21, Isner is approaching late 20's.

Plenty of room for Raonic's game to improve and adjust.

Isner's game will pretty much be the same at this point till he's done. He may have peaked this year.

 

[6-1 6-3 6-0]

Raonic is tall, yet a midget mentally. That's the case for a lot of tall players, actually.

 

[smoledman]

Raonic is still a young pup, Isner in his in prime.

 

[Rock Strongo]

Raonic is tall, yet a midget mentally. That's the case for a lot of tall players, actually.

As tall as Del Potro.

 

[InvisibleSoul]

The stats dont tell you who they played or what surface they played on most.

No, they don't... but these stats are over about 50 matches, so it's not exactly a small sample size.

 

[InvisibleSoul]

Is the OP familiar with "statistically significant differences"? (and non-significant ones?)

You think these stats are by chance?

 

[InvisibleSoul]

No, it doesn't follow at all. It also doesn't follow that most service games won = best server on tour. You only get to be considered the best server if you can back up what you just served consistently. Neither Isner nor Raonic has an after serve strategy in mind on how to construct points based on what they just chose to serve. This is exactly why people simply say that Isner and Raonic have huge serves, not that they are amazing players.

I don't see why having the highest service games won percentage does not equate to best server. When you serve, the object is to win the game. The more successful you are at accomplishing this, the better you are as a server. No, their after serve strategy and execution is significantly worse than many other top players, but their serves more than make up that difference.

 

[InvisibleSoul]

I also can't fathom how being 63rd best in return games won is significantly better than 68th best. 16% vs. 11% is still woeful.

I think it is statistically significant, even though both percentages are not good.

If you play a five set match, you can easily play 50 games. Being able to break 16% of the time, it means you would have broken 8 times on average in those five sets. Being able to break only 11% of the time means you would have broken 5-6 times on average over the same span.

An extra 2-3 breaks in a five set match can EASILY be the difference between winning and losing the match.

 

[joeri888]

I expect the main difference to be found in their respective tiebreak records.

 

[Zildite]

I expect the main difference to be found in their respective tiebreak records.

Career: Milos wins 63%, John 64.3% so not much
For this year its like 57%/70% though.

 

[joeri888]

Career: Milos wins 63%, John 64.3% so not much
For this year its like 57%/70% though.

I meant this year. John is where he is, because he wins a ridiculous amount of tiebreaks. Raonic is good, but not as good as John, even though he does better on most stats, he loses more matches in tiebreaks than John does.

 

[SQA333]

Raonic is tall, yet a midget mentally. That's the case for a lot of tall players, actually.

2009 US Open semifinal:

JM Del Potro (6'6") def. Rafael Nadal
6-2, 6-2, 6-2

2008 Australian Open semifinal:
J Tsonga def. R Nadal
6-2, 6-3, 6-2

2009 Roland Garros 4R:
R Soderling def Nadal
6-2, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6

Butt-hurt is strong, again.

 

[tacou]

if surpassing John Isner's return stats is one of your bars of success, you are going nowhere

 

[lambros]

I agree with the OP, Raonic > Isner.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

In other threads, it seems that many people think that Isner has a better service game and/or has a better return game than Raonic. However, the fact is that the numbers show that neither is true. Raonic has better stats in both departments.

This is based on official statistics here: http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/MatchFacts.aspx

Raonic is pretty clearly the best server on the tour, while Isner follows just behind.

Service Games Won
Raonic 93% (#1)
Isner 92% (#2)

1st Serve Points Won
Raonic 83% (#1)
Muller 80% (#2)
Isner 78% (#6)

2nd Serve Points Won
Federer 60% (#1)
Raonic 57% (#2)
Isner 56% (#6)

Aces Per Match
Raonic 15.59 (#1)
Isner 15.18 (#2)
Karlovic 14.64 (#3)

Now let's look at the return game.

Milos is better than Isner in all the statistics.

Return Games Won
Raonic 16% (#63)
Isner 11% (#68)

Point Won Returning 1st Serve
Raonic 27% (#59)
Isner 25% (#66)

Points Won Returning 2nd Serve
Raonic 46% (#64)
Isner 41% (#68)

Break Points Converted
Raonic 38% (#50)
Isner 31% (#68)

If Raonic is better at both his service game and return game, then it follows that he should be a better overall player than Isner. If Isner is ranked #10 right now, there is no reason why Raonic won't break into the top 10 sooner rather than later. We're not even considering the fact that Isner is 27, whereas Raonic is only 21. Much more upside and opportunity to improve for Raonic to potentially challenge for a top 5 ranking.

How do these numbers compare to Sampras or prime Roddick?

 

[single_handed_champion]

Interesting. I do think Raonic is somewhat more willing to do more in return games and rallies but both their return stats are quite abysmal to be honest. Second serve return points won and Break Point conversions are atrocious.

 

[InvisibleSoul]

How do these numbers compare to Sampras or prime Roddick?

No idea. I would think Sampras service stats would be slightly worse than Raonic's, but obviously his return game would be miles ahead.