Russian Lion Karatsev

yokied

yokied

Hall of Fame
Well, didn’t all that go vaguely according to plan? I just finished reviewing the Sinner-Rubles-Harris matches and there’s a decent amount of noteworthy stuff that I’ll digest a little longer before posting up some notes.

Anyway, congratulations on your 1st ATP title, to young Aslan “Thanks for the wildcard” Karatsev, or the artist formerly known as Aslan “I’m not losing to people behind me in the ranking, if you can say it like that” Karatsev. Tearing the ATP tour limb from limb but still talking in his championship victory speech like a journeyman sweating the ranking and the grind in Challengers.
 
yokied

yokied

Hall of Fame
So we’re about to start Miami and I still haven’t posted my thoughts on Dubai. He’s had a tonne of poasts and attention, a lot of it from people who have barely seen him play, or are judging him from his 1st match Vs Novak, in an AO SF, on debut. That kind of stupid is corrosive to deal with.

It’s very early days and there’s no point getting too carried away because anything is possible with the rate he’s developing and adapting, plus he’s playing way more intense tennis matches than he ever has. A lapse in Miami would be understandable, but nothing that happens there is going to change my outlook for him for the rest of the year. As such, here’s how I see it.

Miami hypothetical case: it’s his last best chance for at least a few months to pick up points on the surface he’s acclimatised to. He will have 6 weeks off afterwards to ease into clay and prepare for RG. So he could psyche himself up for one big push here to get through it and really send shockwaves through the tour, knowing that a tournament win here will pay huge psychological dividends against pretty much all non-big-3. The field here won’t make him work that hard either.

The keys: serve, baseline hugging play (half-volleys, on-the-rise etc), use of angles CC to mess up the overly-defensive court position of opponents, redirections and big shots IO and DTL performance, net approaches to keep points short. He’s put enough of that together in enough matches at B-level, showing good clutch and winning mentality to hang in there. Now I can estimate that he will settle in the top 10 later this year, where he can then focus on the key matchups.

What’s missing: efficient mauling of the field. If he’s going to be able to put a ding in the key matchups, he needs to be realistic about his level of athleticism, measure his efforts and part of that is keeping points and matches short. Not dropping sets to morons would help.

Also missing are two shots that would complete his arsenal: BH slice and drop-shot. The slice can reduce the energy expended in a rally and elicit an easier reply in the hitting zone to put away against a lot of opponents and both are crucial shots in messing up players with very deep court positions.

Mental and physical fitness permitting, with sensible scheduling, he should be able to cruise very deep into all remaining HC events, especially indoor events and establish himself in the top 10. It would be awesome if he qualified for the ATP finals and mauled the overrated mugatronians currently kneeling before Djokodal. Qualification might depend on the vagaries of the rigged ranking system and his performance on grass and clay, but I think he can do enough damage one way or another to end up playing it.

Matchups:

Djokovic on HC: he can become properly competitive with some experience, say after at least 3-4 more matches. Reviewing that match, you can see how far tired/injured both were and how far off they were from their A-level. Novak is obviously a winning machine and had a lot more variety in his B-game, while K played very predictably with barely any big damaging balls compared to earlier rounds (CC or DTL or even decent redirects). Even so, K had his moments in the 2nd.

Nadal on clay: so much of any Nadal matchup on clay is about psychological intimidation, so if he can’t adapt to Nadal’s spin very quickly and win one of the 1st few matches, I doubt he’ll ever damage him there. No shame in that, but he can hit very well on the rise so I have more hope for him than I do for Thiem.

Med: absolutely dominating this will always be tricky because they’re fellow countrymen, and it remains to be seen how K would go in Med’s 2nd 1st serve crazytown, but his game has the variation to handle Med comfortably. I would want to face Med now while this run is peaky and fresh, rather than later in the year after Med returns from hibernation.

Tim: Tim’s power means you can’t ever say anyone else will always control the match, but Tim is a midget in basher’s clothing. So steady play should be able to gradually get on top of that matchup.

The rest of the field, well, LOL at the individual matchups, but there is one over-arching point. He’s probably not a big-3-grade athlete, so if he wants to arrive fresh enough for the big matchups, he needs to win more efficiently against the field. He can’t drop so many sets to players he’s mauling 6-3 or better in the other sets of the match. Hopefully experience will teach him that pretty quickly.

The above came from reviewing all his key matches, again. The baseline play was most impressive in Dubai, particularly the large number of ridiculous half-volleys (zero errors on them) and full range of angles at variable power too. He was starting to try different things too, with the sense to experiment when up in the score etc. Net approach conversions remained very high.

The average level at Dubai was solidly higher than the average level at the AO: fewer errors, more baseline hugging, better average groundstroke everything (footwork, power, aggression, shot selection). He didn’t quite find the peaks like the AO demolition of Gerasimov but went close at times Vs Rubles and Harris. Most importantly, the dips were much shorter and not as deep.

Sure, there’s mitigating factors, some more real than others. He was on a very steep learn curve at the AO and the business end of BO5 tournaments is as much a matter of physical fitness levels as it is about pure ballstriking. Dubai courts were faster, it was BO3 and he was coming off a good break. Most importantly, IMHO the key opponents (Sinner, Rublev, Harris) played him stupidly.

I have individual match notes that I might post from Dubai later but I think that’s enough for now.
 
PURETENNISsense

PURETENNISsense

Professional
yokied said:
Well, I’ve watched every ball he struck at the AO, and here are my notes. I think we’ll be seeing a lot more of him. A-game = top 5; B-game = top 30.

1 point to showcase his talent: 2nd set Vs Novak 5-4 40-30 (Novak’s 2nd set point). Wins a monster rally, with a dropper. Follows it up with an FU CC FH return winner off the 1st serve.

Loads of ball-striking talent, evidenced by consistency and potency on serve and return, just as much as the obviously brutal ground strokes. Keeps it simple, plays at his pace, shows ability to make necessary tactical adjustments mid-match. Keeps his foot on the gas through to match point and is very clutch.

The trouble with Novak is he had too many adjustments to make, but he did break Novak and had him playing very defensively. It was a long way from a routining. Clearly he is not far away from offering real competition at top 5 level.

Simple, effective serve, hitting both corners easily. 1st serve very consistent T 190-200kph; 180kph-ish wide. 2nd serve also consistently strong in the 170s.
Return aggressive, consistent, a lot of winners off either wing.
FH favours CC and inside-in, certainly early on in sets. IO-FH very confidence-dependent.
Can produce powerful big angles CC from neutral positions; not so much IO.
BH wayyy too CC-oriented. Virtually none DTL - it’s a weakness he’s obviously aware of.
All court capability, approaches reasonably frequently with good instincts.
Movement goood. Serve recovery and rally-ball shot preps are quick and effective. Moves well out to FH, running FH a real weapon both CC and DTL.
Putaways rarely get guessed, let alone picked off - good peripheral vision for opponent’s position.

Weaknesses:
1. lacks drop shot, even the threat of it to keep opponent’s court position neutral. Novak was able to camp 2m+ behind the baseline in rallies in super defensive positions.
2. Lack of FH variation. He plays eastern grip with a big loopy take back. He could definitely use it to play a loopier ball to his advantage in some situations where defence or junk is the best option. It would reduce his error rate.
3. BH DTL/IO/re-direct.
4a. Shot selection. He could build points a little longer and accept forced errors due to his all-day power and depth rather than require clean winners in the corners.
4b. Movement off the ball. He is not used to a lot of good shots coming back, so he does ball watch instead of preparing for the next ball. This was less of a problem Vs Novak because he naturally expected nearly everything to be coming back.
5. Volleys. Too often goes for drop volley when open court will do (Applies to pretty much all top 100 atm).
Click to expand...
Great in depth analysis!

I'm sure he will quickly grow out of some of the weaknesses listed. Afterall, he'll be playing higher level players more often since he will qualy into the bigger events with ranking now. These things will typically iron themselves out in a player with his caliber.
 
smalahove

smalahove

Hall of Fame
yokied said:
So we’re about to start Miami and I still haven’t posted my thoughts on Dubai. He’s had a tonne of poasts and attention, a lot of it from people who have barely seen him play, or are judging him from his 1st match Vs Novak, in an AO SF, on debut. That kind of stupid is corrosive to deal with.

It’s very early days and there’s no point getting too carried away because anything is possible with the rate he’s developing and adapting, plus he’s playing way more intense tennis matches than he ever has. A lapse in Miami would be understandable, but nothing that happens there is going to change my outlook for him for the rest of the year. As such, here’s how I see it.

Miami hypothetical case: it’s his last best chance for at least a few months to pick up points on the surface he’s acclimatised to. He will have 6 weeks off afterwards to ease into clay and prepare for RG. So he could psyche himself up for one big push here to get through it and really send shockwaves through the tour, knowing that a tournament win here will pay huge psychological dividends against pretty much all non-big-3. The field here won’t make him work that hard either.

The keys: serve, baseline hugging play (half-volleys, on-the-rise etc), use of angles CC to mess up the overly-defensive court position of opponents, redirections and big shots IO and DTL performance, net approaches to keep points short. He’s put enough of that together in enough matches at B-level, showing good clutch and winning mentality to hang in there. Now I can estimate that he will settle in the top 10 later this year, where he can then focus on the key matchups.

What’s missing: efficient mauling of the field. If he’s going to be able to put a ding in the key matchups, he needs to be realistic about his level of athleticism, measure his efforts and part of that is keeping points and matches short. Not dropping sets to morons would help.

Also missing are two shots that would complete his arsenal: BH slice and drop-shot. The slice can reduce the energy expended in a rally and elicit an easier reply in the hitting zone to put away against a lot of opponents and both are crucial shots in messing up players with very deep court positions.

Mental and physical fitness permitting, with sensible scheduling, he should be able to cruise very deep into all remaining HC events, especially indoor events and establish himself in the top 10. It would be awesome if he qualified for the ATP finals and mauled the overrated mugatronians currently kneeling before Djokodal. Qualification might depend on the vagaries of the rigged ranking system and his performance on grass and clay, but I think he can do enough damage one way or another to end up playing it.

Matchups:

Djokovic on HC: he can become properly competitive with some experience, say after at least 3-4 more matches. Reviewing that match, you can see how far tired/injured both were and how far off they were from their A-level. Novak is obviously a winning machine and had a lot more variety in his B-game, while K played very predictably with barely any big damaging balls compared to earlier rounds (CC or DTL or even decent redirects). Even so, K had his moments in the 2nd.

Nadal on clay: so much of any Nadal matchup on clay is about psychological intimidation, so if he can’t adapt to Nadal’s spin very quickly and win one of the 1st few matches, I doubt he’ll ever damage him there. No shame in that, but he can hit very well on the rise so I have more hope for him than I do for Thiem.

Med: absolutely dominating this will always be tricky because they’re fellow countrymen, and it remains to be seen how K would go in Med’s 2nd 1st serve crazytown, but his game has the variation to handle Med comfortably. I would want to face Med now while this run is peaky and fresh, rather than later in the year after Med returns from hibernation.

Tim: Tim’s power means you can’t ever say anyone else will always control the match, but Tim is a midget in basher’s clothing. So steady play should be able to gradually get on top of that matchup.

The rest of the field, well, LOL at the individual matchups, but there is one over-arching point. He’s probably not a big-3-grade athlete, so if he wants to arrive fresh enough for the big matchups, he needs to win more efficiently against the field. He can’t drop so many sets to players he’s mauling 6-3 or better in the other sets of the match. Hopefully experience will teach him that pretty quickly.

The above came from reviewing all his key matches, again. The baseline play was most impressive in Dubai, particularly the large number of ridiculous half-volleys (zero errors on them) and full range of angles at variable power too. He was starting to try different things too, with the sense to experiment when up in the score etc. Net approach conversions remained very high.

The average level at Dubai was solidly higher than the average level at the AO: fewer errors, more baseline hugging, better average groundstroke everything (footwork, power, aggression, shot selection). He didn’t quite find the peaks like the AO demolition of Gerasimov but went close at times Vs Rubles and Harris. Most importantly, the dips were much shorter and not as deep.

Sure, there’s mitigating factors, some more real than others. He was on a very steep learn curve at the AO and the business end of BO5 tournaments is as much a matter of physical fitness levels as it is about pure ballstriking. Dubai courts were faster, it was BO3 and he was coming off a good break. Most importantly, IMHO the key opponents (Sinner, Rublev, Harris) played him stupidly.

I have individual match notes that I might post from Dubai later but I think that’s enough for now.
Click to expand...

I'll just join in on the great-analysis-comment :)

The point you make about the slice and drop shot, esp. in the context of variety and energy conservation, are really on point.

As you say, "Novak is obviously a winning machine and had a lot more variety in his B-game". This is the key to winning against the best, and also in general, in the big events. Being a winning machine and having a B game that's just as effective when it comes to winning as the A game. Esp. for an offensive minded player, you have to be able to let go of your "ego", and play what the match at hand requires.

That being said, I think it's worth what I consider two of the shots where he has a significant comparative advantage against (almost?) all players:
  • his FH cross, being stretched out wide on the deuce side, esp on service returns.
  • his BH cross, esp on second serves on the ad side, Murray-style.
Being comfortable and effective from the doubles alley and out wide, is what has made Novak as successful as he is. And when you start fearing pulling your opponent out wide, AND you can't hit through them, well ... :)
 
yokied

yokied

Hall of Fame
Buckle up folks for the first instalment of Aslan Aslandre: The Young Lion’s strange quixotic journey from Minsk to Miami, via Melbourne and Dubai.

The scoreboard might’ve looked like a slow start Vs KuKu but it looked pretty confident and relaxed. IMHO he was operating to a little tune I like to call Fn with the Field in the key of F. I’d recommend having a look at this match folks as it looks to me like he’s evolving.

Variation! Experimentation! Managing effort levels and varying play greatly within the sets so he’s not redlining for long. 1st few games of the 1st: freestylin then locked in by 3-4, regular aggression and closed out the set quickly. If he’d just played standard aggressive baseline and kept his foot on the gas, he probably would’ve spent 15-20 minutes less time on court, but he got through it very comfortably.

His intentions for each point were signalled from the 1st ball. If he just paddled it back, or played some strange ball, he wanted to play a point. If he went for something on the return or the 1st ball, the point was over very quickly.

Cliffs on the junk and variation. Beyond a good smattering of standard slices and loopier off-pace balls, and the odd BH slice dropper, there was a lot more use of pace variation to compliment spreading the court (eg soft angle then deep power to other corner) from ball-to-ball to drag Kuku up into the court and out of the defensive position.

The real junk was the really soft standard-swing topspin FH and BHs to bring him in. A low-risk and basically unreadable way to mess up the court position. Bizarre shots to see and he was roughly 2/3 on those soft topspin droppers, using on 1st ball/return or when Kuku was super deep.

Interesting stuff:
1-1 in the 1st.
30-0, topspin CC FH dropper on nearly identical ball to previous crushed CC FH to put Kuku deep. Lost the point, but had Kuku all over the shop.
40-15, Karats tries a BH slice dropper off his first ball that bounces twice on his side of the net. 40-30 tries to bring him in again with another weird short ball, gets to deuce then decent pass from Kuku on a lazy approach and a UE and he’s broken lol.

2-4 15-0 he did the super-short groundstroke again off the BH. 1st ball too. Kuku was way deep on the return and didn’t make it. Just a regular 2HBH swing with soft hands at contact presumably and it just eased over, 2nd bounce was well inside the baseline.
3-4 1st point, super-short BH return to bring him in. Won the point in net exchanges. Definitely new programming. Kuku realised something was up and then the regular groundstroke maulings began. The rest of the 6-4 set was standard programming.

1st game of the 2nd
15-15. 2 soft-ish moonball CC FHs then crushed BH DTL.
Next 2 points, absolutely magnificent angle and power combos. Unplayable. Kuku into the side wall.
Standard baseline aggression in the next game to secure the break.
2-0 feeling secure, he goes back to working on the all sorts. Promptly goes 0-40, broken, lol. Wakes up again and keeps foot on the gas from there for most of the time until the end of the match.
4-1 15-15. Plays a slice BH then a OHBH top-spin half volley off the baseline. LOL who TF is this guy think he is, Kyrgios?

I wonder how much respect he gives Korda. Maybe Korda will get the same two-speed treatment.
 
weelie

weelie

Professional
SeeingDusk said:
did anyone see the match today? how did karatsev lose? did he play poorly or did korda just goat?
Click to expand...
Just checking the highlights of it (youtube Tennis TV channel), looked like Karatsev played really badly, not moving well, not hitting strong. Like his legs were out. Which could of course be true as well, probably played more matches than usual.
 
yokied

yokied

Hall of Fame
Yeah I just reviewed the Korda match. The bagel was somewhat undignified but there it was, the inevitable and very ordinary downer. A tonne of groundstroke UEs very early in the points, usually off pretty standard pushery balls from Korda. A lot of missed BH DTL/IO redirects wide and net. Late, bigly. 8 GS winners to 27 errors (9FH, 18BH); 1 ace to 4 DFs. Korda winning double the 0-5 shot rallies.

It looked like he was trying to get things going and there were a few good points but he couldn’t string anything together beyond a few points in each game. Definitely not a strong mental performance, irrespective of whatever niggles and/or tiredness he had.

Post-match interview: Korda acting like it was all Korda out there, enough to elicit a quiet chuckle. I just did what I did in RG qualifying, you know, like nothing’s happened between then and now for the guy to vault dozens of spots over me in the rankings to the top 30. All me baby.

About the only interesting thing to come out of it is Aslan’s spinrates being clocked. The BH is pretty flat at 27ishRPS. The 48RPS FH is a bit spinnier than many would give him credit for.
 
Checkmate

Checkmate

Legend
yokied said:
Yeah I just reviewed the Korda match. The bagel was somewhat undignified but there it was, the inevitable and very ordinary downer. A tonne of groundstroke UEs very early in the points, usually off pretty standard pushery balls from Korda. A lot of missed BH DTL/IO redirects wide and net. Late, bigly. 8 GS winners to 27 errors (9FH, 18BH); 1 ace to 4 DFs. Korda winning double the 0-5 shot rallies.

It looked like he was trying to get things going and there were a few good points but he couldn’t string anything together beyond a few points in each game. Definitely not a strong mental performance, irrespective of whatever niggles and/or tiredness he had.

Post-match interview: Korda acting like it was all Korda out there, enough to elicit a quiet chuckle. I just did what I did in RG qualifying, you know, like nothing’s happened between then and now for the guy to vault dozens of spots over me in the rankings to the top 30. All me baby.

About the only interesting thing to come out of it is Aslan’s spinrates being clocked. The BH is pretty flat at 27ishRPS. The 48RPS FH is a bit spinnier than many would give him credit for.
Click to expand...

He definitely has a mental connection with his coach. The motivating words from his coach after the second round defeat in Doha produced his Dubai run. Let's hope they can produce something magical for the clay season.
 
yokied

yokied

Hall of Fame
Yeah the coach is obviously a big part of the story. It was a tired and dumb performance. If the coach was there, maybe the dumb part would’ve been removed. His tired B game is probably enough to take care of Korda.

I wouldn’t mind if his results are patchy on clay, even grass. It’d be awesome to see him resume mauling all the hyped passive pushers straight away on clay and I think it’s probable. No way he and his coach just go back into the wilderness from here.

I’d also be lying if I pretended that dedjokodaling draws isn’t in my vision for him, but he might not reach that level on clay or grass until after HC, and HC is unlikely to happen this year.

As long as he gets himself back online for the 2nd HC swing this year for a big push towards top 10. If he can play the ATP finals and the big indoor titles in form, he could pick up a lot of points and solidify the damage against top players.
 
yokied

yokied

Hall of Fame
We really need an octobot to keep us up to date. It looks like he needs one too.

Going from his Instagram stories, Aslan will be munching his way through Munchen. He’s on the list for Monte Carlo too.

Hopefully he paces himself well in the lead up to RG.

EDIT: so at this point his April clay schedule looks like this, maybe?

Monte Carlo
Serbia
Munchen
 
Last edited:
Fintft

Fintft

G.O.A.T.
He is like a pupeteer pulling the marionettes' strings!
Purest attacking player. Musetti didn't even seem to have a change to get warmed up against him today, in two sets in Monte Carlo
I don't remember even Federer being able to do those angles and that power on the run, Karatsev does...
Aslan has no notion of a neutral ball lol
 
M

merwy

G.O.A.T.
Fintft said:
He is like a pupeteer pulling the marionettes' strings!
Purest attacking player. Musetti didn't even seem to have a change to get warmed up against him today, in two sets in Monte Carlo
I don't remember even Federer being able to do those angles and that power on the run, Karatsev does...
Aslan has no notion of a neutral ball lol
Click to expand...
Karatsev > Federer
 
D

Deleted member 771911

Guest
If Karetsev was going to have a good clay run, I'd have thought he'd have started it off with a win over Tsitsy.
 
aldeayeah

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
The UEs on routine shots are a bit frustrating. Not sure how he can get those in control, they seem to come and go.
 
yokied

yokied

Hall of Fame
Reviewing the disappointing MC campaign, I ain’t shook and remain optimistic, but hopefully he reviews these matches with his coach and really starts mentally preparing for a big push at one of the remaining tournaments for a decent seeding at RG.

The headline as @aldeayeah and @Checkmate have covered was our man’s tactical stupidity in hitting UE on the 1st or 2nd ball, breakpointerering against opponents that he’s beating in basic baseline exchanges, with no real adjustment at any time. Similar story with the low 1st serve % and too many DFs, when all he needed to do was put it in. The positives are that he was constructing and dictating most rallies well and maintaining good court position.

Both were pretty low quality matches, with Karats pushing back the opponent but not really exploiting the court position too well to finish via angles or droppers (1 in each match by my count) or too much off-pace/trajectory/depth, instead going for too many high-powered winners. Not a lot of intelligent point construction from opponents either.

I’d say Karats is all clear to do some damage with more patient play in future clay encounters and BO5, as he wasn’t even remotely troubled, with hardly any forced errors. K was winning almost all net points when he got there, so that aspect of finishing was good.

I was struck by how low quality the Tsits match was, but the Musetti was also a pretty low quality match, again with very limited court position competition on any terms really. Another tonne of UE very early in points, if not the 1st ball. The main difference between the two matches being Musetti’s UE count nearly matched K’s, and the difference in longer rallies was even more pronounced than Tsits.

Tsits match: K 16-14 in rallies 5-9 shots (8-4 in the 1st); 7-7 in > 9 shot rallies, 27-41 in < 5 shot rallies. K 0/4 on BPs. K 1st serve 48%.
Musetti match: K 17-9 in rallies 5-9 shots; 7-3 in > 9 shot rallies, 50-45 in < 5 shot rallies. K 3/12 on BP. K 1st serve 63%.

Questions:
1. Gespadin Yatsyk: how can he forget, or be allowed to forget, how to manage his B-game that he did so well to navigate through the AO and Dubai?
2. If he cuts the crap and resumes solid B-game management, Colin Fleming’s question from Dubai still stands: who’s gonna stop him? Not either of his two MC opponents, that’s for sure.
 
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