Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
Think we just disagree on this (which is rare for us!).
Djoko's not lost a match to a player outside top-32 since 2010 across the calendar. That's more than 5 full years of avoiding big upsets. He's been close at the slams a few times, but even 2004-2009 Fed had the odd Tipsarevic and Berdych and Haas match in the slams.
Sure, he grinds more than Fed (who doesn't?), but he's getting better at finishing points as well (also at the net, where he came in on almost as high a % of the points as Fed at this AO). I just don't see why he'd have a closer to Rafa-like decline (other than past history, which is admittedly an argument ;-)).
2012-2014, sure. But you also had Fedalray winning slams in that period. You hardly don't have that going forward (and he owns all of them currently). Zverev ain't gonna challenge for the slams for another couple of years. Who then? Thiem? The lost boys? Kyrgios?
As @tennisaddict says, there's a massive gap between Djoko and the rest and the next best right now are all declining at a faster speed than Djoko. It takes time for the field to catch up to him.
Federer won those matches though. Djokovic has lost twice as favourite against Wawrinka (who I don't think would've won a slam in Federer's era). He lost to Nishikori, and a couple times to Murray (this would be the basic equivalent of Federer losing to Hewitt in his prime). I think he's been a bit more upset prone overall.
And I think he's getting better at finishing points as well, but I just don't think he's good enough to say that he'll keep winning like this at 30-31 years of age just because there's a gap in competition. He gets pushed by too many "random" players IMO. Simon, Kukushkin in DC, along with how close he was to losing at some of the slams last year, etc...)
As I said, I'm not sure who it will be, but I would be very surprised if we were in for 2-3 more years (not including this one) of Djokovic being the best. Sports usually has a way of surprising you when you least expect it.