The keys to another Federer Grand Slam title...

[IvanisevicServe]

Del Potro, Murray, Tsonga, and the young guys

And contrary to what you might be thinking, what Federer needs from them is for them to improve and become mentally tough, not for them to continue to struggle in the big moments

Federer's only real shot at winning another slam is for someone to take out Nadal (and Djokovic as well wouldn't hurt, though Federer at least knows he can have a shot if he plays well against him).

But in the case of Nadal, Del Potro, Murray, and Tsonga have all shown they can beat him. If they can do what they're supposed to do to set up the matches, and then actually execute when the big moment arrives, Federer would benefit enormously.

If it continues with the Big 4 making it to every GS semi, and Federer knowing that he'll either have to beat Nadal in a final or a semi-final in order to win a major, it's just not going to happen. MAYBE in New York...but at this point, I wouldn't even be particularly optimistic about that.

Federer needs guys to start mixing it up. I think that may be why he was talking up Del Potro before their match, saying he could've been #1 in 2010 had he not gotten hurt, etc. And perhaps even why he's been taking some subtle shots at Murray through the press - because he's upset with Murray for not challenging Nadal more than he has.

He wants these guys to step it up and get the thorn in his side out of the way.

 

[snowpuppy]

Two words:

Sport Psychologist

 

[martini1]

Fed has a better chance to take the title if Djoker beats Rafa in a different half, and Fed beats Murray.

Delpo is not a big prob, and Tsonga is not consistent enough. Anyway, the big four's draw has a lot to do with who will take the title.

 

[Spider]

I think you are grossly underestimating how difficult it is to beat Nadal. Murray has said that in the past, I remember, that those who explain post match that a player should have done this or that against Nadal, should actually face Nadal.

We need to give more credit to Djokovic than what many seem to be doing; he has shown that he can handle the pressure Nadal puts, both mentally and physically, which sadly, the rest of the field are finding it very difficult to cope with.

 

[BobFL]

No keys imo. He is not going to win another slam if he has to go through Nadal. Period. Nadal is unusually pumped against Fed and he is playing lights out every time. As a Fed fan I just don't see it happening.

 

[NadalAgassi]

I agree. Federer will never beat Nadal in a slam again. I am now more convinced of that since Federer was in the best form he will be at in this stage of his career here and it still wasnt enough. Federer needs to avoid Nadal or there is no chance.

 

[zagor]

I agree. Federer will never beat Nadal in a slam again. I am now more convinced of that since Federer was in the best form he will be at in this stage of his career here and it still wasnt enough. Federer needs to avoid Nadal or there is no chance.

In a nutshell. If he doesn't face Nadal, he has a puncher's chance(even against Novak 2.0), otherwise he's toast.

 

[IvanisevicServe]

I think you are grossly underestimating how difficult it is to beat Nadal. Murray has said that in the past, I remember, that those who explain post match that a player should have done this or that against Nadal, should actually face Nadal.

We need to give more credit to Djokovic than what many seem to be doing; he has shown that he can handle the pressure Nadal puts, both mentally and physically, which sadly, the rest of the field are finding it very difficult to cope with.

But Murray's shown he can do it, having beaten him in two slams. And Del Potro and Tsonga have beaten him soundly in a slam before.

The problem is, they either lose before they get to the Nadal match, aren't in the same section of the draw (as was the case this year), or when they get the match, they aren't there mentally (Murray at the last two Wimbledons and last year's US Open, and Del Potro has had a rather uninterested look in all big matches since returning from injury).

But they've shown they CAN do it, and they have the games on paper to do it.

 

[FedMex]

They have 2 handed backhands.

 

[DjokovicForTheWin]

It's all Berdych's fault I tell you. He ruined it. He had Nadal on the ropes in the 2nd set.

 

[Wicked4hand]

One word Retired...eventhough he played very well this AO

 

[cc0509]

One word Retired...eventhough he played very well this AO

If Federer wins no slams this year (and I doubt he will), he will retire end of 2012 or latest 2013. Bank on it.

 

[mattennis]

Del Potro, Murray, Tsonga, and the young guys

And contrary to what you might be thinking, what Federer needs from them is for them to improve and become mentally tough, not for them to continue to struggle in the big moments

Federer's only real shot at winning another slam is for someone to take out Nadal (and Djokovic as well wouldn't hurt, though Federer at least knows he can have a shot if he plays well against him).

But in the case of Nadal, Del Potro, Murray, and Tsonga have all shown they can beat him. If they can do what they're supposed to do to set up the matches, and then actually execute when the big moment arrives, Federer would benefit enormously.

If it continues with the Big 4 making it to every GS semi, and Federer knowing that he'll either have to beat Nadal in a final or a semi-final in order to win a major, it's just not going to happen. MAYBE in New York...but at this point, I wouldn't even be particularly optimistic about that.

Federer needs guys to start mixing it up. I think that may be why he was talking up Del Potro before their match, saying he could've been #1 in 2010 had he not gotten hurt, etc. And perhaps even why he's been taking some subtle shots at Murray through the press - because he's upset with Murray for not challenging Nadal more than he has.

He wants these guys to step it up and get the thorn in his side out of the way.

Sadly, but I think you are right.

 

[jackson vile]

If Federer wins no slams this year (and I doubt he will), he will retire end of 2012 or latest 2013. Bank on it.

Ok, so you have padded for two years? LOL

 

[JustBob]

Classy Roger has pity for always injured Nadal.

Sports psychologist: "Roger, this is a competitive sport, it's ok to hit someone when they are down!"

Classy Roger turns into No Mercy Roger, win!

 

[ultradr]

He wants these guys to step it up and get the thorn in his side out of the way.

In the mean time, Federer's winning % against top might have been gradually going down.

 

[monfed]

Two words - Avoid Nadal!

 

[veroniquem]

But in the case of Nadal, Del Potro, Murray, and Tsonga have all shown they can beat him. If they can do what they're supposed to do to set up the matches, and then actually execute when the big moment arrives, Federer would benefit enormously.

You mean like in USO 2009?
Lol, current Delpo would not hurt any of the top 4. Peak 2009 Delpo was also a threat to Fed, not just Rafa . Since AO 2008, Tsonga has beaten Fed more than he has beaten Rafa (including at Wimbledon). Berdych is a threat to Fed now as well in slams (worse matchup for Fed than for Rafa). As for Murray, he hasn't played Fed in a slam since AO 2009. He has the jitters in finals but in other rounds, he would be tough for Fed too. Djoko has won all his hard court matches vs Fed in 2011.

 

[Bendex]

I think you are right. Either Nadal has to be injured, or taken out before he gets to Fed. There is nothing Fed can do to hurt, or even stay neutral with Nadal on his backhand side. And now that he has lost all confidence, he can't even take advantage of Nadal's backhand.

 

[DragonBlaze]

You mean like in USO 2009?
Lol, current Delpo would not hurt any of the top 4. Peak 2009 Delpo was also a threat to Fed, not just Rafa . Since AO 2008, Tsonga has beaten Fed more than he has beaten Rafa (including at Wimbledon). Berdych is a threat to Fed now as well in slams (worse matchup for Fed than for Rafa). As for Murray, he hasn't played Fed in a slam since AO 2009. He has the jitters in finals but in other rounds, he would be tough for Fed too. Djoko has won all his hard court matches vs Fed in 2011.

Well duh, but nobody is saying that Fed is a lock to win against any of those guys, not anymore. But he has atleast a 50% chance to beat them if he is playing well, even with his up and down play within matches (which is inevitable these days).

Maybe 20-25% against Djoker.
Murray 30-50%.

Yes I'm pulling these number out my backside but you get the point.

You know his chances of beating Rafa in BO5 at the age of 30+?

0%. Nil. Nada. Absolutely zero.

Before yesterday I atleast gave him a chance, however small, but now I'm convinced, it ain't gonna happen. So what that post said holds true really.

 

[nikdom]

No keys. Only locks. Roger is not going to win any more slams. Sweet 16 it is.

 

[OddJack]

None of you so called Federer fans who cluck like chickens here dont know him yet.

If you think because of this defeat he's gonna quit the idea of beating the bully you're wrong. He will beat Nadal in a major again. It's just funny how easily you guys flip from one side to other overnight.

 

[THUNDERVOLLEY]

Federer's only real shot at winning another slam is for someone to take out Nadal (and Djokovic as well wouldn't hurt, though Federer at least knows he can have a shot if he plays well against him).

He wants these guys to step it up and get the thorn in his side out of the way.

Translated, that means he does not deserve to win another major. He's a singles player and should not need others to do what he cannot (defeat Nadal). This, plus the historcally rare occurence of males aged 30 and over winning majors limits the opening of his rapidly closing window of chances. So he either stops believing his skills are beyond tweaking and add stop playing into Nadal's hands, or forget about winning majors where Nadal is on fire and a likely opponent.

 

[DragonBlaze]

None of you so called Federer fans who cluck like chickens here dont know him yet.

If you think because of this defeat he's gonna quit the idea of beating the bully you're wrong. He will beat Nadal in a major again. It's just funny how easily you guys flip from one side to other overnight.

I certainly hope he does. I would love to be wrong. Good to see someone having faith OddJack!

 

[nikdom]

None of you so called Federer fans who cluck like chickens here dont know him yet.

If you think because of this defeat he's gonna quit the idea of beating the bully you're wrong. He will beat Nadal in a major again. It's just funny how easily you guys flip from one side to other overnight.

Hey good for you if you believe this! Its no more than wishful thinking at this point. The reality of past and current results does not support this any longer.

I'm happy with what Roger has achieved in his career so far. Its been a pleasure watching him play his game all these years. Unfortunately, I don't believe he is going to be able to win a slam again without significant luck. That doesn't make me a 'so-called' fan. It just makes me a realist.

 

[IvanisevicServe]

Well duh, but nobody is saying that Fed is a lock to win against any of those guys, not anymore. But he has atleast a 50% chance to beat them if he is playing well, even with his up and down play within matches (which is inevitable these days).

Maybe 20-25% against Djoker.
Murray 30-50%.

Yes I'm pulling these number out my backside but you get the point.

You know his chances of beating Rafa in BO5 at the age of 30+?

0%. Nil. Nada. Absolutely zero.

Before yesterday I atleast gave him a chance, however small, but now I'm convinced, it ain't gonna happen. So what that post said holds true really.

Yep.

And I think Federer would have a 70-80% chance of beating Del Potro. That's a good matchup for him. No matter how good Delpo gets, Federer knows he'll always be susceptible to his drop shots and slice. He really had no business losing that 2009 USO final, either...that entire match turned when he blew a 2nd set he was firmly in control of.

But after all these years of trying to figure out Nadal (and he knew exactly what was coming before each match), he hasn't gotten any closer, and that says it all. He knows every Nadal serve will be going to his backhand, he knows he's going to see heavy CC forehands to his backhand, he knows Nadal's going to run down balls to his forehand if they don't paint the lines, and sometimes he'll even get the line painters...he's had several different coaches...and he still can't get it done.

It's simply a matchup that can't be solved.

 

[dr325i]

It's just funny how easily you guys flip from one side to other overnight.

When was the last time he won a Major? How old was he then?
Did not happen overnight -- it happened over 500 nights...

 

[jones101]

Execute better on big points, simple as that, there is no magic miracle, lets face it, but gamewise he still has the game to beat everyone.

 

[Wilander Fan]

Execute better on big points, simple as that, there is no magic miracle, lets face it, but gamewise he still has the game to beat everyone.

I think its very obvious he gets fatigues and he knows it. Look how strong he comes out in first sets and then just fades to a level down. Still usually good enough for most players but it brings him down to earth. Look at whats happened to him in 5 setters (and even 4 setters) in the last 3 years and this year in particular. The last set is usually not much of a contest. Look at how he has rebuilt his game to be high risk, quick strike tennis. In his prime, he was a much more patient player.

It might just be age but he never really recovered from mono back in 09. Nobody actually fully recovers medically speaking but Fed's endurance is definitely getting worse every year. Its not so obvious in his matchplay as he plays aggressively but you can see how his footwork degrades and his shots lose zip.

Maybe he needs to start looking into his diet to see what can be improved and start working with a different conditioning guy.

 

[Mike Sams]

None of you so called Federer fans who cluck like chickens here dont know him yet.

If you think because of this defeat he's gonna quit the idea of beating the bully you're wrong. He will beat Nadal in a major again. It's just funny how easily you guys flip from one side to other overnight.

I think Federer hurt his back and it stiffened up on him during the fireworks break. Saw him squatting, stretching it out. He's got physical issues. He pulled out of Doha only 3 weeks ago because of his back.

 

[zagor]

None of you so called Federer fans who cluck like chickens here dont know him yet.

Well none of us here knows him personally or what's really going on in his mind.

If you think because of this defeat he's gonna quit the idea of beating the bully you're wrong. He will beat Nadal in a major again. It's just funny how easily you guys flip from one side to other overnight.

I don't think Fed's gonna quit the idea of beating Nadal (Fed is one of the most persistant players I've ever seen) but I don't think he'll do it in a slam again.

I did think before the match he had a decent chance, maybe it was say 70-30 in Nadal's favour but this might have been a bit of a last stand for Fed against Nadal, if he didn't beat him now it will probably not happen(in slams atleast).

 

[zagor]

I think Federer hurt his back and it stiffened up on him during the fireworks break. Saw him squatting, stretching it out. He's got physical issues. He pulled out of Doha only 3 weeks ago because of his back.

Even if that's true (we probably won't find out, Fed is not Nadal) that still doesn't explain him playing excellent tennis to get the lead then horrible tennis to squander it, cruising through his service games until he gets the break then get broken at love etc.

I do think his endurance is much worse this days, and his serve has its ups and downs(though that was always the case to a degree atleast in slams he usually served excellent) but he still could have atleast pushed it to five if he didn't have so many brainfarts.

 

[Blade0324]

I don't see any way Roger can win another major. The only way I think he could is to convert to a 2HBH and that's not going to happen. 1HBH is a thing of the past. You will not see another grand slam winner on the men's side with a 1HBH in the next 10 years.

 

[goran_ace]

I'm agreeing with everyone else saying that Fed is going to need someone else to step up to challenge Djokovic and Nadal in earlier rounds. It's going to be too tough to go through both of those guys in back-to-back matches to win a title.

 

[citrixscu]

Two words:

Sport Psychologist

This.
10char

 

[BeHappy]

If he doesn't draw Nadal then he's 50-50 to beat Djokovic at any given time, and 90% to beat Murray (in a slam).

 

[IvanisevicServe]

I think Federer hurt his back and it stiffened up on him during the fireworks break. Saw him squatting, stretching it out. He's got physical issues. He pulled out of Doha only 3 weeks ago because of his back.

You know, I did think of that when he came out and something was clearly amiss.

And the entire fortnight, I kind of got the vibe that he wasn't feeling great with his post-match interviews and press conferences. I think after he reached the quarterfinals, he seemed more relaxed...maybe because he had successfully kept his GS QF streak alive, which is important to him.

In his press conference after the match, he merely said he was physically feeling "OK"...not "well" or "good"...so he may very well still be dealing with back issues.

 

[Bud]

If he doesn't draw Nadal then he's 50-50 to beat Djokovic at any given time, and 90% to beat Murray (in a slam).

If he doesn't draw Nadal in the SF then Nadal most likely draws Murray in the SF.. and beats him. He'll then need to defeat Nadal in a final. Recall the FO 2011?

Federer's only real chance is if he gets lucky and both Nadal and Djok lose before meeting him.

 

[Sartorius]

Even if Federer goes slamless for the rest of his career, and/or never beats Djokovic or Nadal in a slam, claiming he has "absolutely no chance" to beat them in a slam is ridiculous. The guy can still play tennis, and if he happens to play them in conditions that favor his game (I don't think he was favored, nor he was the favourite against Nadal in this AO, certainly not in last year's FO), he will have chances to win.

 

[jackson vile]

If he doesn't draw Nadal in the SF then Nadal most likely draws Murray in the SF.. and beats him. He'll then need to defeat Nadal in a final. Recall the FO 2011?

Federer's only real chance is if he gets lucky and both Nadal and Djok lose before meeting him.

That's right

 

[Deleted member 77403]

If he doesn't draw Nadal in the SF then Nadal most likely draws Murray in the SF.. and beats him. He'll then need to defeat Nadal in a final. Recall the FO 2011?

Federer's only real chance is if he gets lucky and both Nadal and Djok lose before meeting him.

He would also want to avoid the hot player, whether that is Tsonga, Soderling, Berdych or anyone else. Federer nowadays is more vulnerable to be hit off the court earlier than the top two guys.

He really needs a lucky draw, and avoid the in form players from falling into his quarter.

 

[Xizel]

More like shot selection. Stop attempting a hard DTL forehand on a low ball. Even if you do make it, the Nadal forehand awaits, which brings the next point. Approach to the backhand. It's the lesser of two evils. Federer doesn't respect that Nadal possesses the greatest forehand along with he himself.

 

[BeHappy]

If he doesn't draw Nadal in the SF then Nadal most likely draws Murray in the SF.. and beats him. He'll then need to defeat Nadal in a final. Recall the FO 2011?

Federer's only real chance is if he gets lucky and both Nadal and Djok lose before meeting him.

If he draws Murray and Nadal draws Djokovic is his best chance.

 

[TheTruth]

Just keep playing.

Anything can happen. I mean, Stosur beat Serena in a slam final, that's enough to give any fan hope for their player.

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

Nadal's knees, Nole's allergies. Other players will start overtaking him too. This is the beginning of a steep decline.

 

[SStrikerR]

If Federer wins no slams this year (and I doubt he will), he will retire end of 2012 or latest 2013. Bank on it.

Except he said he wants to still be playing until 35 at least, and as long as he still has fans. So no, I don't expect him to be gone until 2014 at the very earliest (injury problems arise, unlikely), or 2018 at the very latest.

Regardless, I think he just has to not be playing Nadal anymore, as much as I didn't want to believe it. I figured if his form was at-near his peak, he could do it. However he was playing lights out going into the semi, and Nadal still beat him pretty handily. So..I guess he can't, until he proves otherwise. He should have another crack or two at it this year though.