"Today's 33 is our 27." - Ivan Lendl explaining the Great Age Shift in tennis.

[Quaichang]

Go to 26:20 in the clip.

I've been saying this for years, that a huge age shift had taken place in tennis in this decade. The Great Age Shift. GAS. You heard it here first.

Which means - for example - that RF being 38 isn't nearly the big deal it would have been in the 90s or 80s. It is admirable and amazing but not THAT amazing.

It also means that we cannot moan too much about 23 year-olds not winning slams anymore, because it's a completely different ballgame in modern pro tennis, with guys playing their best tennis at around 30 - give or take a few years. Wawrinka and Anderson are just two examples.

In other words, 27-34 (roughly speaking) may have become the new peak/prime/shmeep as opposed to the past eras when it was quite clearly 20-25.

Players used to drop their form at around 27-29, then retire at 30 or 31, roughly speaking. Now they are kicking ass at 30, and doing very well or reasonably well at 35 even, which would have been very rare in past eras. Agassi, Newcombe and Connors were exceptions.

We need to finally acknowledge this age shift (as much as it may annoy some RF fans who have a fetish for agism and age-related excuses), which may even be much greater than Lendl suggested (off the cuff probably). We cannot glorify RF for being a top player at 38 the way we would have done in 1993. That's just a fact.

Nor can we mock young players for not slaying the Big 3 at age 21 - which would have been normal in 1991 when 21 year-olds killed the veterans regularly.

And another thing: this is the first time in the Open Era (or probably ever) that no player younger than 31 has a slam title!!! If that fact doesn't convince you of the Great Age Shift (GAS), then nothing will, and perhaps you are in denial?

Opinions...

Let’s wait and see if Novak and Rafa are still contending for slams at 38 before we discount RF.

 

[The Guru]

I guess that's why we don't see anyone 33 or older in the top 10 or top 20 anymore....But yes, I'm ignorant.

I'm sure it has nothing to do with the weakest generation in tennis history being the ones entering this age range.

 

[NatF]

I'm sure it has nothing to do with the weakest generation in tennis history being the ones entering this age range.

The players who were as good or better at 33 than say 27 were basically also rans who didn't maximise their abilities when they were younger. Even guys that were late bloomers like Wawrinka and Ferrer were on the obvious downturn at 33. Really hard to think of anyone that this is really true for as all the Big 3 were better at 27'ish than they were at 33...

The crux of his point about longevity improving is true, but it's still an exaggeration.

 

[The Guru]

The players who were as good or better at 33 than say 27 were basically also rans who didn't maximise their abilities when they were younger. Even guys that were late bloomers like Wawrinka and Ferrer were on the obvious downturn at 33. Really hard to think of anyone that this is really true for as all the Big 3 were better at 27'ish than they were at 33...

The crux of his point about longevity improving is true, but it's still an exaggeration.

Well I take him as saying 27 used to be the start of terminal decline now it's 33 which it seems like you agree with.

 

[NatF]

Well I take him as saying 27 used to be the start of terminal decline now it's 33 which it seems like you agree with.

Ok that's fairer, thanks for clarifying.

 

[Thundergod]

As I thought back then and just had to wait some years for the results to show, GAS was always an excuse to try to explain why 3 rounds of next gens sucked.

 

[mike danny]

Well I take him as saying 27 used to be the start of terminal decline now it's 33 which it seems like you agree with.

That actually makes much more sense.

 

[mike danny]

I'm sure it has nothing to do with the weakest generation in tennis history being the ones entering this age range.

Still, even guys from the Djokodal gen didn't quite play that well at 33.

 

[Razer]

Well I take him as saying 27 used to be the start of terminal decline now it's 33 which it seems like you agree with.

This is what Lendl and co meant with great age shift of 6 years, people can only have extra career in their 30s if their primes are longer and terminal decline onset is farther now than before.

 

[robthai]

Funny how @UnderratedSlam has disappeared from this forum after all his threads about "great age shift" flopped.

 

[Pheasant]

I said this in another thread but it's probably not relevant here;

It's the financial crash surely?

Players born in the early 90s up until the early 2000s would have been junior age or young enough to just be starting out when the crash happened, and a whole bunch of kids would have been prevented from starting or continuing their tennis training.

Anyone born in the early to mid 2000s like Rune or Alcaraz would have missed that.

Basically things appear to be returning to normal because members of the 2000s cohort were less affected than the 90s kids.

This is an interesting take. You brought up a good point.

 

[Tennfan123]

I’m glad this myth died out.

 

[robthai]

I’m glad this myth died out.

and OP also died out.

 

[chjtennis]

I don't see many 33 yo players staying close to their peak level outside Big 3. I think theyvwere just anomalies.

 

[Jonas78]

Lol! Out of the top 19 players, Djokovic is now the only one older than 30. For some reason Dimitrov is still nr20.

How about that Ivan? Human nature doesnt change after all?

 

[Jonas78]

I don't see many 33 yo players staying close to their peak level outside Big 3. I think theyvwere just anomalies.

Well, certainly anomalies when it comes to level of play, but were they better at 33 than 27? I dont think so.

 

[chjtennis]

Well, certainly anomalies when it comes to level of play, but were they better at 33 than 27? I dont think so.

Definitely not. Media just wanted to hype matches up and made up crap like someone can be better at 35 than he was at 27.

 

[Eren]

First younger ATG he faced, and Alcaraz ain't even peak yet. Just wait and see.

 

[mike danny]

I don't see many 33 yo players staying close to their peak level outside Big 3. I think theyvwere just anomalies.

This was just Ivan Lendl doing damage control to somehow rationalize the death of younger talent at that time. Same way for how Wilander and Henman have said recently that current Djokovic is better than ever. They'll never say out loud that the younger ones are not good at least while this era is still ongoing.

 

[ghostofMecir]

In Jan 1991, supposedly the peak of youth: Average age: 25.4
In 2023, current average age : 24.8

Rank		Age
1	Stefan Edberg	24
2	Boris Becker	23
3	Ivan Lendl	30
4	Andre Agassi	20
5	Pete Sampras	19
6	Andres Gomez	30
7	Thomas Muster	23
8	Goran Ivanisevic	19
9	Emilio Sanchez	25
10	Brad Gilbert	29
11	Jonas Svensson	24
12	Andrei Chesnokov	24
13	John McEnroe	31
14	Guillermo Perez-Roldan	21
15	Michael Chang	18
16	Guy Forget	26
17	Jakob Hlasek	26
18	Jay Berger	24
19	Juan Aguilera	28
20	Aaron Krickstein	23

So much for the GAS

@UnderratedSlam

 

[robthai]

OP still lurks on ttw but with his tail tucked under his legs.

In Jan 1991, supposedly the peak of youth: Average age: 25.4
In 2023, current average age : 24.8

Rank		Age
1	Stefan Edberg	24
2	Boris Becker	23
3	Ivan Lendl	30
4	Andre Agassi	20
5	Pete Sampras	19
6	Andres Gomez	30
7	Thomas Muster	23
8	Goran Ivanisevic	19
9	Emilio Sanchez	25
10	Brad Gilbert	29
11	Jonas Svensson	24
12	Andrei Chesnokov	24
13	John McEnroe	31
14	Guillermo Perez-Roldan	21
15	Michael Chang	18
16	Guy Forget	26
17	Jakob Hlasek	26
18	Jay Berger	24
19	Juan Aguilera	28
20	Aaron Krickstein	23

So much for the GAS

@UnderratedSlam

Explain this then.

 

[robthai]

But you fail to understand everything.......... again.

Alcatraz is one player.

One.

He isn't 57 players.

Just one.

This thread is about averages, statistics.

Comprendido?

No, too logicato por comprendido... yet againo...

explain the above post @UnderratedSlam

 

[robthai]

@UnderratedSlam will never come back after how badly his threads have been exposed.

 

[ghostofMecir]

Go to 26:20 in the clip.

I've been saying this for years, that a huge age shift had taken place in tennis in this decade. The Great Age Shift. GAS. You heard it here first.

Which means - for example - that RF being 38 isn't nearly the big deal it would have been in the 90s or 80s. It is admirable and amazing but not THAT amazing.

It also means that we cannot moan too much about 23 year-olds not winning slams anymore, because it's a completely different ballgame in modern pro tennis, with guys playing their best tennis at around 30 - give or take a few years. Wawrinka and Anderson are just two examples.

In other words, 27-34 (roughly speaking) may have become the new peak/prime/shmeep as opposed to the past eras when it was quite clearly 20-25.

Players used to drop their form at around 27-29, then retire at 30 or 31, roughly speaking. Now they are kicking ass at 30, and doing very well or reasonably well at 35 even, which would have been very rare in past eras. Agassi, Newcombe and Connors were exceptions.

We need to finally acknowledge this age shift (as much as it may annoy some RF fans who have a fetish for agism and age-related excuses), which may even be much greater than Lendl suggested (off the cuff probably). We cannot glorify RF for being a top player at 38 the way we would have done in 1993. That's just a fact.

Nor can we mock young players for not slaying the Big 3 at age 21 - which would have been normal in 1991 when 21 year-olds killed the veterans regularly.

And another thing: this is the first time in the Open Era (or probably ever) that no player younger than 31 has a slam title!!! If that fact doesn't convince you of the Great Age Shift (GAS), then nothing will, and perhaps you are in denial?

Opinions...

Bump for fun.

 

[Jonas78]

Bump for fun.

So stupid to think human nature suddenly changed. It was a strange time, with Big4 born within 6 years, three of them with great longevity, combined with some very weak generations after them. Now we are back to normal. Whats the age of top 10 except Djokovic?

 

[Federev]

Go to 26:20 in the clip.

I've been saying this for years, that a huge age shift had taken place in tennis in this decade. The Great Age Shift. GAS. You heard it here first.

Which means - for example - that RF being 38 isn't nearly the big deal it would have been in the 90s or 80s. It is admirable and amazing but not THAT amazing.

It also means that we cannot moan too much about 23 year-olds not winning slams anymore, because it's a completely different ballgame in modern pro tennis, with guys playing their best tennis at around 30 - give or take a few years. Wawrinka and Anderson are just two examples.

In other words, 27-34 (roughly speaking) may have become the new peak/prime/shmeep as opposed to the past eras when it was quite clearly 20-25.

Players used to drop their form at around 27-29, then retire at 30 or 31, roughly speaking. Now they are kicking ass at 30, and doing very well or reasonably well at 35 even, which would have been very rare in past eras. Agassi, Newcombe and Connors were exceptions.

We need to finally acknowledge this age shift (as much as it may annoy some RF fans who have a fetish for agism and age-related excuses), which may even be much greater than Lendl suggested (off the cuff probably). We cannot glorify RF for being a top player at 38 the way we would have done in 1993. That's just a fact.

Nor can we mock young players for not slaying the Big 3 at age 21 - which would have been normal in 1991 when 21 year-olds killed the veterans regularly.

And another thing: this is the first time in the Open Era (or probably ever) that no player younger than 31 has a slam title!!! If that fact doesn't convince you of the Great Age Shift (GAS), then nothing will, and perhaps you are in denial?

Opinions...

So…

Besides the 3 greatest players of all time - who have won practically everything for 20 years straight…

Who else is basking in the “Great Age Shift”?

Murray?
Stan?
Thiem?
Delpo?
Berdy?
Tsonga?

I’m not seeing it.

 

[nolefam_2024]

So…

Besides the 3 greatest players of all time - who have won practically everything for 20 years straight…

Who else is basking in the “Great Age Shift”?

Murray?
Stan?
Thiem?
Delpo?
Berdy?
Tsonga?

I’m not seeing it.

You don't see it but you said you followed tennis for more than 30 years? Very shocking.

When did Edberg decline. What age.

 

[robthai]

"We need to finally acknowledge this age shift"

 

[ghostofMecir]

So stupid to think human nature suddenly changed. It was a strange time, with Big4 born within 6 years, three of them with great longevity, combined with some very weak generations after them. Now we are back to normal. Whats the age of top 10 except Djokovic?

The entire motivation for starting the thread was to denigrate a player he hated. Now he’s disappeared. Sad.

Which means - for example - that RF being 38 isn't nearly the big deal it would have been in the 90s or 80s. It is admirable and amazing but not THAT amazing.

We need to finally acknowledge this age shift (as much as it may annoy some RF fans who have a fetish for agism and age-related excuses), which may even be much greater than Lendl suggested (off the cuff probably). We cannot glorify RF for being a top player at 38 the way we would have done in 1993. That's just a fact.

 

[onehandbh]

In Jan 1991, supposedly the peak of youth: Average age: 25.4
In 2023, current average age : 24.8

Rank		Age
1	Stefan Edberg	24
2	Boris Becker	23
3	Ivan Lendl	30
4	Andre Agassi	20
5	Pete Sampras	19
6	Andres Gomez	30
7	Thomas Muster	23
8	Goran Ivanisevic	19
9	Emilio Sanchez	25
10	Brad Gilbert	29
11	Jonas Svensson	24
12	Andrei Chesnokov	24
13	John McEnroe	31
14	Guillermo Perez-Roldan	21
15	Michael Chang	18
16	Guy Forget	26
17	Jakob Hlasek	26
18	Jay Berger	24
19	Juan Aguilera	28
20	Aaron Krickstein	23

So much for the GAS

@UnderratedSlam

What was the average age of the grand slam winners in 1991 vs 2023? 2022?

 

[NaDjoFed]

Then how do you explain the Womans draw having more than half of the players under 25 in the 4th round? How do you explain 15 year old vs 21 year old defending champion? Why does this only apply to mens tennis? Why are young people doing great things in other sports? They are just making excuse for these losers so that ratings don't die.

This is happening in all sports. Not a surprise. Professional players have entire equipe of doctors and fitness coaches, we have tons of data for preventing injuries and improve fitness, medical tech has improve a lot with surgeries etc...I mean, it is pretty normal. I follow football (soccer) and many players have top performances in their 30s (impossible 40 years ago).

 

[ghostofMecir]

So stupid to think human nature suddenly changed. It was a strange time, with Big4 born within 6 years, three of them with great longevity, combined with some very weak generations after them. Now we are back to normal. Whats the age of top 10 except Djokovic?

25.5 even with Djoko, though there are a few birthdays coming up pretty soon, so that would be closer to 26 point something.

24.3 without Djoko

 

[Jonas78]

25.5 even with Djoko, though there are a few birthdays coming up pretty soon, so that would be closer to 26 point something.

24.3 without Djoko

The strangest thing is that 10 years are "missing". Its 10 years between Djokovic and Medvedev, and Meddy is the second oldest in top10. Its indeed a very strange moment in tennis history.

 

[ghostofMecir]

The strangest thing is that 10 years are "missing". Its 10 years between Djokovic and Medvedev, and Meddy is the second oldest in top10. Its indeed a very strange moment in tennis history.

Worst generation in tennis history

 

[BauerAlmeida]

OOH, ages have changed a bit, OTOH, the Big 3 made the change look bigger than it actually is. They were too good and that's why they were on top until their mid and late 30s, but if you look at other players, not so much. Agassi who is from several generations ago has been on top until his mid-30s and nobody aside from the Big 3 went beyond that.

 

[Phoenix*]

Federer was at his peak when Djo sidelined him.

 

[Drob]

over28 in the top100:

1990 - 15
1991 - 11
1992 - 11
1993 - 17
1994 - 23
1995 - 19
1996 - 22
1997 - 18
1998 - 24
1999 - 23
2000 - 26
2001 - 24
2002 - 27
2003 - 26
2004 - 28
2005 - 23
2006 - 27
2007 - 27
2008 - 30
2009 - 40
2010 - 37
2011 - 43
2012 - 43
2013 - 49
2014 - 51
2015 - 55
2016 - 56 19
2017 - 58
2018 - 52
current - 53

193÷10 = 19.3 - Avg. for decade of the 1990s

269÷10 = 26.9 - Avg. for decade of the aughts


444 ÷ 9 = 49.3 - Avg. 2010-18