Toughest possible paths (based on a draw) and what actually happened in slams won

[mahesh69a]

The draw process brings a lot of luck factor into tennis. But what happens after the draw and how some seeds drop out leaving an easier path is equally important.

Here is the data for the toughest possible paths and how many of those matches turned to reality in the slams won

Federer

Tournament​	Toughest Possible Path Seeds From Round 3​	Number of matches That actually happened​	Toughest possible QF, SF, F happened?​
W2003​	29+16+8+1+2​	1​	No​
AO2004​	25+15+8+3+1​	3​	No​
W2004​	29+13+7+3+2​	2​	No​
UO2004​	31+16+6+3+2​	3​	No​
W2005​	25+13+8+3+2​	3​	No​
UO2005​	27+16+6+3+2​	2​	No​
AO2006​	30+14+5+3+2​	2​	No​
W2006​	30+13+7+4+2​	3​	No​
UO2006​	29+16+5+4+2​	1​	No​
AO2007​	25+14+7+4+2​	3​	No​
W2007​	26+13+5+3+2​	3​	No​
UO2007​	26+13+5+4+2​	2​	No​
UO2008​	28+13+5+3+1​	2​	No​
RG2009​	32+15+6+4+1​	1​	No​
W2009​	27+13+7+4+3​	2​	No​
AO2010​	31+17+6+3+2​	2​	No​
W2012​	29+13+6+1+2​	2​	No​
AO2017​	10+5+1+4+2​	3​	No​
W2017​	27+13+6+2+1​	3​	No​
AO2018​	29+13+7+4+1​	1​	No​

 

[mahesh69a]

Nadal

Tournament​	Toughest Possible Path From Round 3​	Number of matches That actually happened​	Toughest possible QF, SF, F happened?​
RG2005​	30+16+5+1+2​	2​	No​
RG2006​	29+14+8+4+1​	4​	No​
RG2007​	25+14+8+3+1​	2​	No​
RG2008​	26+15+6+3+1​	3​	No​
W2008​	27+16+8+4+1​	2​	No​
AO2009​	29+13+6+4+2​	3​	No​
RG2010​	28+14+7+3+1​	1​	No​
W2010​	33+13+6+4+1​	3​	No​
UO2010​	29+15+8+4+2​	1​	No​
RG2011​	28+16+5+4+2​	2​	No​
RG2012​	32+13+8+4+1​	2​	No​
RG2013​	27+13+7+1+2​	3​	No​
UO2013​	27+13+7+4+1​	1​	No​
RG2014​	30+16+5+3+2​	2​	No​
RG2017​	31+14+5+2+1​	0​	No​
UO2017​	26+15+7+3+4​	0​	No​
RG2018​	27+14+6+3+2​	1​	No​
RG2019​	27+15+7+3+1​	3​	No​
UO2019​	32+14+6+4+1​	0​	No​
RG2020​	32+14+6+3+1​	1​	No​

Djokovic

Tournament	Toughest Possible Path From Round 3	Number of matches That actually happened	Toughest possible QF, SF, F happened?
AO2008	32+15+5+1+2	2	No
AO2011	29+14+6+2+1	4	No
W2011	32+13+5+3+1	2	No
UO2011	32+13+7+3+2	3	No
AO2012	29+15+5+4+2	3	Yes
AO2013	31+15+5+4+2	4	No
W2014	31+14+6+3+2	1	No
AO2015	31+13+8+4+2	3	No
W2015	27+14+5+4+2	3	No
UO2015	25+14+8+4+2	2	No
AO2016	28+14+7+3+2	5	Yes
RG2016	31+14+7+4+2	3	No
W2018	21+7+4+2+1	2	No
UO2018	26+12+2+4+1	1	No
AO2019	25+15+8+4+2	4	No
W2019	32+16+7+4+2	1	No
AO2020	30+14+6+3+1	2	No
AO2021	27+14+6+3+2	3	No
RG2021	29+13+8+3+2	1	No
W2021	30+13+5+3+2	0	No

 

[junior74]

 

[mahesh69a]

Observations ( I have to mention every time that I don't have a horse in the Big 3 race, just interested in how luck comes into picture statistically ) :

Nadal won 3 slams where he did not face the toughest seed possible in any round - RG 2017, UO 2017 and UO 2019. Federer and Djokovic have zero such titles.

Percentage of matches that actually happened according to toughness of the seeds in the draw:
Federer 44%, Nadal 36%, Djokovic 53.33%

Out of 58 slams won, only one of them had the actual path same as the toughest path - AO 2016

Toughest possible QF+SF+F - happened twice for Djokovic - AO 2016 as mentioned above and AO 2012. It never happened for Nadal and Federer.

Toghest possible Final opponent is seed 1 for Nadal most of the time because he was ranked 2 and was in the other half of the darw for extensive periods. Similarly, for Djokovic and Federer, it is seed 2 because they were the top seeds most of the time.

 

[PETEhammer]

Interesting metric yet again. Novak just kills it with the hands he's dealt.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Observations:

Nadal won 3 slams where he did not face the toughest seed possible in any round - RG 2017, UO 2017 and UO 2019. Federer and Djokovic have zero such titles.

Percentage of matches that actually happened according to toughness of the seeds in the draw:
Federer 44%, Nadal 36%, Djokovic 53.33%

Out of 58 slams, only one of them had the actual path same as the toughest path - AO 2016

Toughest possible QF+SF+F - happened twice for Djokovic - AO 2016 and AO 2012. It never happened for Nadal and Federer.

This is all great and well, but we all know seeds dont always mean level of play.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Interesting metric yet again. Novak just kills it with the hands he's dealt.

Like Karatsev...

 

[PETEhammer]

Like Karatsev...

Like Bjorkman...

 

[Lleytonstation]

Like Bjorkman...

Like Chung.

 

[mahesh69a]

This is all great and well, but we all know seeds dont always mean level of play.

This is very much true - but over an extensive period of time, seeds are supposed to reflect form and are fairly indicative of the level of play.

 

[Phoenix1983]

This is all great and well, but we all know seeds dont always mean level of play.

Also, the player seeded, say, No 10 in one era can be weaker than the player seeded No 10 in another era.

 

[ForehandRF]

@mahesh69a Some interesting things out there.I appreciate your work

 

[PETEhammer]

Like Chung.

Like Gasquet

 

[NoleIsBoat]

Nadal since 2017 and the other two USOs

 

[Lleytonstation]

Like Gasquet

But that backhand... (actually, I think that backhand is the most overrated shot of all time)

 

[DSH]

Nadal since 2017 and the other two USOs

4........3, buddy.
Time to accept reality!

 

[NoleIsBoat]

4........3, buddy.
Time to accept reality!

4 USO won out of 7 healthy participations
2-1 h2h

Time to face facts, bud

 

[Biotic]

RG2017	31+14+5+2+1	0	No
UO2017	26+15+7+3+4	0	No
RG2018	27+14+6+3+2	1	No
RG2019	27+15+7+3+1	3	No
UO2019	32+14+6+4+1	0	No
RG2020	32+14+6+3+1	1	No

MugCity redefined.

 

[Deleted member 781040]

Fedster had tough competition...
...April Fools!

 

[mahesh69a]

Slam-wise percentages of toughest opponents actually faced are as below:

Federer at AO - 14/30 - 46.67%
Federer at RG - 1/5 - 20% - Sampling size is too small as it is just one slam won
Federer at W - 19/40 - 47.5%
Federer at UO - 10/25 - 40%

Nadal at AO - 3/5 - 60% - Sampling size is too small as it is just one slam won
Nadal at RG - 26/65 - 40%
Nadal at W - 5/10 - 50%
Nadal at UO - 2/20 - 10%

Djokovic at AO - 30/45 - 66.67%
Djokovic at RG - 3/5 - 60% - Sampling size is too small as it is just one slam won
Djokovic at W - 9/25 - 36%
Djokovic at UO - 6/15 - 40%

Nadal at US Open is definitely an anomaly at 10% - only 2 seeds faced out of a possible 20 seeds in 4 slams won.
Djokovic (66.67% at AO) and Federer (47.5% at W) had their toughest competition at their best slam.

 

[BGod]

Basically LUCK is how Nadal finally closed the Slam gap he had for 10 years.

But damn 2007 Wimbledon for Fed.

 

[mike danny]

Basically LUCK is how Nadal finally closed the Slam gap he had for 10 years.

But damn 2007 Wimbledon for Fed.

Why?

 

[MadariKatu]

Basically LUCK is how Nadal finally closed the Slam gap he had for 10 years.

But damn 2007 Wimbledon for Fed.

Him closing the gap is due mostly to RG, and that's not luck, it's utter domination. Has he been lucky at some slams? Yes, just like Federer and Djokovic as well (RG 2016, USO 2018 and W 2017 come to mind; there could be others).

 

[Third Serve]

Basically LUCK is how Nadal finally closed the Slam gap he had for 10 years.

But damn 2007 Wimbledon for Fed.

Nadal's not needed much luck to win his last few RG's. If he was actually struggling against this laughable clay field, we'd be worried. But he's mostly been cruising through.

 

[RelentlessAttack]

Observations ( I have to mention every time that I don't have a horse in the Big 3 race, just interested in how luck comes into picture statistically ) :

Nadal won 3 slams where he did not face the toughest seed possible in any round - RG 2017, UO 2017 and UO 2019. Federer and Djokovic have zero such titles.

Percentage of matches that actually happened according to toughness of the seeds in the draw:
Federer 44%, Nadal 36%, Djokovic 53.33%

Out of 58 slams won, only one of them had the actual path same as the toughest path - AO 2016

Toughest possible QF+SF+F - happened twice for Djokovic - AO 2016 as mentioned above and AO 2012. It never happened for Nadal and Federer.

Toghest possible Final opponent is seed 1 for Nadal most of the time because he was ranked 2 and was in the other half of the darw for extensive periods. Similarly, for Djokovic and Federer, it is seed 2 because they were the top seeds most of the time.

All this tells you is that there were less upsets in the inflation era due to weak depth

 

[MadariKatu]

Observations ( I have to mention every time that I don't have a horse in the Big 3 race, just interested in how luck comes into picture statistically ) :

Nadal won 3 slams where he did not face the toughest seed possible in any round - RG 2017, UO 2017 and UO 2019. Federer and Djokovic have zero such titles.

Percentage of matches that actually happened according to toughness of the seeds in the draw:
Federer 44%, Nadal 36%, Djokovic 53.33%

Out of 58 slams won, only one of them had the actual path same as the toughest path - AO 2016

Toughest possible QF+SF+F - happened twice for Djokovic - AO 2016 as mentioned above and AO 2012. It never happened for Nadal and Federer.

Toghest possible Final opponent is seed 1 for Nadal most of the time because he was ranked 2 and was in the other half of the darw for extensive periods. Similarly, for Djokovic and Federer, it is seed 2 because they were the top seeds most of the time.

In RG 2017 Djokovic was ranked higher than Thiem, but he was not a tougher opponent, even less on clay. Also Sock was seeded higher than RBA or Fognini, but is clay, Sock is an absolute non factor there. According to seeding, in 2017 it would have been tougher to face Murray than Nadal. In the 2018 USO Djokovic did play Gasquet in the 3rd round, who was the only seeded player he could meet there, so he got in that 3rd round the toughest he could get. If that is relevant to the toughness of the whole slam path is a whole different story.

When hardcourt represents 8/14 of the tour, clay 4/14 and grass 1/14, seeding/rankings don't necessarily represent the toughest opponents; on clay and grass at least.

Edit: I changed the proportions between hard, clay and grass based on big events (slams, masters1000 and wtf)