vs the 2 top non-Nadal players fed faced at RG in a non early round, Fed did his job - delpo RG 09, djoko at RG 11.
given peak Mac took him to 5 sets in RG 84 final with Lendl being pretty much at his prime. I see fed pretty much being able to do the same if not go one better.
As good as peak Mac was in 84 on clay, he was worse than peak fed on clay.
- Kuerten - He's the one dirtballer who can out-Federer Federer. OTOH he yields to Fed or almost every other dirtballing great in consistency, so the Q is whether he would bring/sustain his A game often/long enough. I say yes, because the two are likely to face each other in the SF/F and that's where Guga usually shines. If he keeps up his intensity a la the '04 shocker or his demolition of career-best Ferrero in the '01 SF 4 is the best that be expected of even TMF.
Kuerten went 5 vs Kafel multiple times, 4 vs Norman/Corretja. All QF or later. If both are at their best, Kuerten takes this in 4 tight sets or a 5th set.
Fed of RG 05-07 or 09 QF-F, 11 etc definitely up there to challenge.
- Wilander - Almost as steady as Ivan, but it's not unwise to bet against him vs. Fred... provided that he sticks to his default grinding. But we know what a chameleon he is, hence my usual "game plan" qualifier. I suspect he'd show up those of us who keep underrating him, yes including Fed, though a tight 4-setter or a 5-fer seems likely.
this is probably the matchup that depends most on tech I think. without poly, Mats obviously does better than with poly.
- Bruguera - '93 Sergi was on a mission and I honestly don't see anyone but 78/80 Borg or 08/17 Nadal beating him at RG that year. '94 would be more doable, but I'd still back the Spaniard who averaged a career-high 63.3% for the season, including a sensational 46.4% in RGW.
yeah, I don't see this. I see peak Kuerten beating peak Bruguera for one. Ditto for 07/10/12 nadal for sure. Borg RG 79 as well defo.
If Courier was up a break in the 5th set, other versions of Nadal could beat him as well.
See the last part about the %s
- Courier - '92 Jim is another one who topped the 65% ceiling if we focus on the CC season proper, which coupled with his historic 67.5% at RG gives him the decisive edge. The '93 version is more beatable and I might even favor Fed with his '11 SF serving (Jim doesn't handle big serves as well as Sergi, as you know), but for the entire series? Doubtful, though here I can see an average 5-setter.
See the last part about the %s
I don't see this.
RG 2009 - fed took out red hot delpo.
RG 2015 - djoko failed to do the same vs red hot wawa
RG 2011 - fed took out djoko
RG 2009 final - fed came out firing vs Sod in 1st set and absolutely closed the door with that unsurpasable TB perf in the 2nd set when Sod threatened to come back in the 2nd set.
RG 2016 final - djoko started off with the same passive/nervous play vs 2nd non-Nadal final opponent in 1st set vs Murray. Murray crumbled after that enabling Djoko to free himself. Who knows what would've happened otherwise.
the only thing Djoko gets the edge prime to prime is the 5-setter vs rafa in RG 2013.
So both in the matchup and vs the field in general, gotta go with prime Fed over prime Djoko at RG. djoko is a little better vs nadal, but not enough to make a difference at RG.
Djoko just doesn't have a win over a prime form good CCer that comes close to RG 2009 semi delpo or RG 2011 semi djoko himself.
you are reading too much into the % #s. fed at times doesn't bother breaking so many times vs sub top 20 opponents for example.
I don't give a damn that Murray was nearly 60% or whatever on clay in 15. delpo in RG 09 was 10x scarier and much better than Murray at RG 15.
Only match of Murray at RG that comes close is when he was able to frustrate Stan in RG 16 semi.
And all of the above reinforces my favorite maxim that history has a way of evening things out. Novak's CC "peak" may not be as high as that of his fellow 2/3-timers, but it would've been almost criminal if he failed to notch his 2nd FO given
his crazy reliability and longevity. Novak in the same company as Courier and Bruguera w/2 FOs sounds about right. So do Lendl, Wilander and Kuerten with 3 apiece due to their greater consistency, tactical genius and unparalleled artillery respectively.
it really doesn't in many cases. Else fed would've had a 2nd FO for example.
Becker would've had a CC title somewhere.