Nadal's wimbledon chances?

H

Halba1

New User
2 slam finals in a row. playing like a GOAT in RG final. serve, backhand, movement as good as when he won his first Wimbledon title. This is an extra special level of play. Confidence will spill over onto the Grass which is a bit slower in the final rounds.

Nadal must get through the first few rounds, and he should Play Queens for practise.

Backhand is at GOAT level surely.

Competition is super weak. Djokovic well below par, Andy murray struggling with form. Only Federer but he hasnt played in a while now.
 
Poisoned Slice

Poisoned Slice

Bionic Poster
Give him the trophy now.
220px-Eurosport_Studio_Australian_Open_2014_007.jpg
 
H

Halba1

New User
TheFifthSet said:
Return isn't very good, so not high lol. Higher than any year since 2011 though.
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he hit some winners on the return today. Forehand, backhand looking goat material again.
Djokovic and murray well down. If nadal makes the final and no federer look out.
 
ACE of Hearts

ACE of Hearts

Bionic Poster
Don't like his chances. I said the french was likely one of the slams he could win. Let's wait and see the draw first
 
TheFifthSet

TheFifthSet

Legend
Halba1 said:
he hit some winners on the return today. Forehand, backhand looking goat material again.
Djokovic and murray well down. If nadal makes the final and no federer look out.
Click to expand...

His return always looks amazing on clay, that's why he's won 46% of his career return games on clay and 22% on grass.

He's one of the top 5 favourites but I think it's a bridge too far.
 
J

JRAJ1988

Guest
Quarter Final or better.

I hope I see Nadal vs Federer at this years Wimbledon though.
 
tennis_pro

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
2012 - AO final, 2012 FO won (one of his best FO's ever), what happened at Wimbledon?
2014 - AO final, 2014 FO won, what happened at Wimbledon?
 
Rafa the King

Rafa the King

Hall of Fame
tennis_pro said:
2012 - AO final, 2012 FO won (one of his best FO's ever), what happened at Wimbledon?
2014 - AO final, 2014 FO won, what happened at Wimbledon?
Click to expand...

2008 - won RG without dropping a set, what happened at Wimbledon?
2010 - won RG without dropping a set, what happened at Wimbledon?
 
tennis_pro

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Rafa the King said:
2008 - won RG without dropping a set, what happened at Wimbledon?
2010 - won RG without dropping a set, what happened at Wimbledon?
Click to expand...

2008/2010 was ages ago, 2012/2014 is a lot more representative to what might happen.

Having said that I think he'll reach the QF this year.
 
ACE of Hearts

ACE of Hearts

Bionic Poster
Any idea what ranking will nadal get at Wimbledon? Their rankings are different and nadal hasn't had good results on grass in awhile
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
TheFifthSet said:
His return always looks amazing on clay, that's why he's won 46% of his career return games on clay and 22% on grass.

He's one of the top 5 favourites but I think it's a bridge too far.
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Just remember that Edberg, with 28% of games won for his career on grass, is the gold standard on grass for ATGs over the last 25 years or so.

Hewitt is next with 27%. Murray with 26%, and Agassi. Djokovic 25%. Federer at 24%.

As much as people keep saying that grass now plays like clay, it doesn't.

If I hated Nadal, as some do here, I'd be praying that he doesn't get hot in his early Wimbledon matches. The best way to beat Nadal is to meet him him his confidence is off, and good luck with that after what he did on clay this year. Everything else is a bonus for the rest of the year. He's now playing with house money.
 
P

Pagoo

G.O.A.T.
ACE of Hearts said:
Any idea what ranking will nadal get at Wimbledon? Their rankings are different and nadal hasn't had good results on grass in awhile
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Well, he's opened quite a lead in the actual rankings that sshould help his Wimbledon seeding. Would be weird to see him ranked ahead of Federer and Djokovic. :eek:
 
TheFifthSet

TheFifthSet

Legend
Gary Duane said:
Just remember that Edberg, with 28% of games won for his career on grass, is the gold standard on grass for ATGs over the last 25 years or so.

Hewitt is next with 27%. Murray with 26%, and Agassi. Djokovic 25%. Federer at 24%.

As much as people keep saying that grass now plays like clay, it doesn't.

If I hated Nadal, as some do here, I'd be praying that he doesn't get hot in his early Wimbledon matches. The best way to beat Nadal is to meet him him his confidence is off, and good luck with that after what he did on clay this year. Everything else is a bonus for the rest of the year. He's now playing with house money.
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Yeah, the grass/clay similarities are unbelievably overblown. Nadal's splits are just one testament to that.

When I talk about Nadal's return I mean as a pure, stand-alone shot. His return games won % is buoyed by the rest of his game. His defensive return, though, is a little better than tour-average at best. 88th all-time in % of first serve return points won on grass, and it's probably worse now than when he was in his prime.
 
Steve0904

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
Nadal has changed his game to be more aggressive on clay so that should pay off on grass. His serve is back to being a passable weapon now too so I actually expect him to be a threat this year.

However, I still wouldn't pick him to win it, and the draw will be important as well (whereas at this RG I don't think it mattered).

My order of favourites at this admittedly very early juncture are:

1. Federer, given his track record, but he has to come back playing something resembling the early part of the year, and he's much more likely to get upset than Nadal was at this RG.

2. Murray. His French Open run looks like it could be a momentum builder and he feeds off the British crowd (rather than wilting under the pressure like some would).

3. Nadal, with the usual disclaimer that he has to get out of the first week, and as I've said above, I think the improvements Nadal has made will help him this year.

4. Djokovic. I know he looks lost and sometimes like he doesn't care, but it's still the era of the Big 4 where we don't expect breakthroughs.

5. Wawrinka, but I doubt he'll win it. Grass just doesn't suit him. Swings take too long to develop and ROS is lackluster.

6. The rest (tbh, I'd put Kyrgios at the top of this list, followed by probably Cilic and then Zverev, but realistically one of my top 4 is going to win it).
 
-NN-

-NN-

G.O.A.T.
Excellent if he survives week 1. Federer's chances are also excellent. Hopefully, they face off in the final. Well, I'd prefer Federer-Kyrgios but after that we'll have Federer-Nadal.
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
TheFifthSet said:
Yeah, the grass/clay similarities are unbelievably overblown. Nadal's splits is just one testament to that.

When I talk about Nadal's return I mean as a pure, stand-alone shot. His return games won % is buoyed by the rest of his game. His defensive return, though, is a little better than tour-average at best. 88th all-time in % of first serve return points won on grass, and it's probably worse now than when he was in his prime.
Click to expand...
Grass is weird because of so few matches per year, and Nadal's record on grass is terribly skewed by injuries.

He was right at his career average in 2008, winning 22% of his return games. But he won 95% of his service games.

Anyone who gets near 60% of games won on grass is very dangerous.

Nadal is at around 89% of service games on grass, career. Watch what he does this year very carefully. He was around 90.6% in 2006.

The big stats are always points and games right after matches and big tournament wins.

In 2008 he was around 54.6% in points and 58.8% in games. Game% was actually a bit low in relationship to points.

When a season is over 55% of points and 60% of games plus a good% on service games is pretty much a lock for at least a major final, especially on grass. So going on past years, that's what we need to track. When more than one person is doing this (VERY rare), it gets very interesting.
 
Roddick85

Roddick85

Hall of Fame
If Rafa makes it past the 1st week, his odds increase drastically IMO. Regardless of today's result, I still believe Federer & Murray are the 2 best grass players on tour right now, so I would go with them first rather than Rafa. Rafa's new and improved game could see him becoming a factor on grass again, but that remains to be seen. He played a lot of tennis in the first 6 months of the year, so he needs to pace himself if he doesn't want to be too tired or injured again. Given the proxmity of the clay/grass season, I could see Nadal not doing much on grass for the next couple of weeks, taking it rather easy and then giving a final push in August on hard, which has become his 2nd best surface those last couple of years.
 
icedevil0289

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
Gary Duane said:
Grass is weird because of so few matches per year, and Nadal's record on grass is terribly skewed by injuries.

He was right at his career average in 2008, winning 22% of his return games. But he won 95% of his service games.

Anyone who gets near 60% of games won on grass is very dangerous.

Nadal is at around 89% of service games on grass, career. Watch what he does this year very carefully. He was around 90.6% in 2006.

The big stats are always points and games right after matches and big tournament wins.

In 2008 he was around 54.6% in points and 58.8% in games. Game% was actually a bit low in relationship to points.

When a season is over 55% of points and 60% of games plus a good% on service games is pretty much a lock for at least a major final, especially on grass. So going on past years, that's what we need to track. When more than one person is doing this (VERY rare), it gets very interesting.
Click to expand...

i can see why you would say its skewed and maybe i'm misinterpreting, but i dont think it he was injured when he lost to rosol, darcis, kygrios ,and brown
 
-NN-

-NN-

G.O.A.T.
icedevil0289 said:
i can see why you would say its skewed and maybe i'm misinterpreting, but i dont think it he was injured when he lost to rosol, darcis, kygrios ,and brown
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A lot of excuses get made for all the top guys. Bad luck strikes in different places for different players (but if you're to believe Mustard then Nadal should have won about 5 AOs).


My understanding of this ****hole is that Fed should have won 25 Slams, Nadal should have won 5 AOs, and Sampras grossly underachieved.
 
icedevil0289

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
-NN- said:
A lot of excuses get made for all the top guys. Bad luck strikes in different places for different players (but if you're to believe Mustard then Nadal should have won about 5 AOs).
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5?! i mean if you want to give 2014 to nadal, and even then i disagree about that, but lol 5?!
 
-NN-

-NN-

G.O.A.T.
icedevil0289 said:
5?! i mean if you want to give 2014 to nadal, and even then i disagree about that, but lol 5?!
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He didn't explicitly state 5 but excuses are made for these top guys at every turn and he rattled off AO after AO where Nadal COULD have won, without ever being brave enough to put a figure on it. Over very long careers for these top legends of the game, I think the "luck" more or less evens out. If a guy leaves the game due to lack of motivation when they still could have given more to it and won more (Sampras, Borg?) then that's on them.
 
ACE of Hearts

ACE of Hearts

Bionic Poster
NBP said:
The only way Nadal isn't #2 seed is if Fed wins both Stuttgart and Halle (which he won't), and Rafa doesn't reach Queen's final. In other words, he's seeded second.
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You really think nadal will get the second seed? Lol. I don't think so
 
D

dgold44

G.O.A.T.
Halba1 said:
2 slam finals in a row. playing like a GOAT in RG final. serve, backhand, movement as good as when he won his first Wimbledon title. This is an extra special level of play. Confidence will spill over onto the Grass which is a bit slower in the final rounds.

Nadal must get through the first few rounds, and he should Play Queens for practise.

Backhand is at GOAT level surely.

Competition is super weak. Djokovic well below par, Andy murray struggling with form. Only Federer but he hasnt played in a while now.
Click to expand...

I would say yes
 
Krish872007

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
Calm down with the threads guys. Let us enjoy and cherish the victory today - as far as Rafa is concerned, he will certainly be enjoying this one for a while!

Forget about Wimbledon for a bit
 
D

dgold44

G.O.A.T.
Halba1 said:
2 slam finals in a row. playing like a GOAT in RG final. serve, backhand, movement as good as when he won his first Wimbledon title. This is an extra special level of play. Confidence will spill over onto the Grass which is a bit slower in the final rounds.

Nadal must get through the first few rounds, and he should Play Queens for practise.

Backhand is at GOAT level surely.

Competition is super weak. Djokovic well below par, Andy murray struggling with form. Only Federer but he hasnt played in a while now.
Click to expand...

If nadal plays fed
I will be torn and not sure to root for
 
ACE of Hearts

ACE of Hearts

Bionic Poster
Rafa the King said:
They have a formula you know, and even in that formula he is 2nd I believe. It's not like the base it on their feelings.
Click to expand...

We will see. The problem with nadal's that he hasn't had good grass results lately. Let's see how he does in these tournaments leading up to Wimbledon
 
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