2013 Bracketology

M

mikej

Hall of Fame
and yes i'm aware critiquing your comment just leaves me open for you to throw the Duke-WF upset in my face

don't care - one match does not a season make - and neither team has a trophy from the weekend - i can deal with a foot in my mouth on a message board from Wake's big effort
 
TopDawg

TopDawg

G.O.A.T.
WF_Fan said:
Based on the impressive win Wake just had over Duke during ACC's, there's a good chance they'll beat Northwestern, and i think if they meet Georgia in the next round, it's going to be a close match. They recently ended UVA's 20 match winning streak in doubles, and had the match stayed outdoors, i think Wake would have pulled off a big upset.
Thoughts on the Northwestern and Georgia matches?
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I think Wake should beat NW - 4-2 type of match. I'd like Wake at 1, 3, 4, & 5. NW at 2, 6. I'd be very surprised if Wake got more than 1 point against Georgia but you never know.
 
W

WF_Fan

New User
I agree with TopDawg. MikeJ-wake forest split sets at 5 and Lee beat Styslinger during the season. Not close to putting up a second point? I disagree. After your 0% chance of WF beating Duke in 17000 tries I don't know if you retain any credibility anymore. True it was only one match but that was an uneducated statement nonetheless.
 
S

socaltennnis

Rookie
ClarkC said:
Is there any team out there that has been subpar due to injuries and might suddenly get healthy? The only one who comes to mind is .... the 2013 USC team! If Gomez and De Vroome get healthy for NCAAs, the #5 Trojans might be better than the #1 Bruins. I would still favor UVa in the final, but if we see a healthy USC in the round of 16 and earlier, it would not be a surprise if they beat some top teams. I don't recall any other top 10 team being greatly affected by injuries on the men's side this year. Perhaps someone else knows of an example.
Click to expand...

All part of Peter Smith's plan to win a fifth!
 
M

mikej

Hall of Fame
WF_Fan said:
Not close to putting up a second point? I disagree.
Click to expand...

let us analyze how close they were

4 matches completed - all lost in straight sets - don't think they won those ones

at #4 mac led 7-6, 0-0 ... so they were still two full sets away ... or put another way, just as close as i would be to beating nadal if i were given a WC into the next master's series event and drew him in the first round

at #5, ho was down 1-0 in third, having lost 7 of last 9 games, so a set away and not doing very well recently

as you say, my percentages lost a little credibility last week, so i won't put a number on it, but WF was quite a distance from putting a second point on the board, and exponentially farther from putting third and fourth points on the board to win it

just silly to say, based on a team's best win, that they would likely have won against by far the best team in the country if things had not gone indoors ... doubles points are pretty fickle, being pro sets and all ... winning three singles matches against UVA - good luck - only one team has done it this year (hint - it's a pretty good team that kicked your *** earlier this year - and that you woke up just in time for NCAAs last week)
 
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M

mikej

Hall of Fame
but to answer your original question - sure, good chance of beating NW, and i too agree with topdawg that more than one point in athens would be an unexpected performance from WF
 
W

WF_Fan

New User
you would go 7-6 in the first set if you drew nadal in the first round of a masters series event? all credibility lost.
 
C

Clemson_tennis

Legend
Hey Wake Fan what did you make of Prabhakar obviously reaching over the net to hit a shot vs Harrington and then lose it when the ump called it? To the point of standing on the bottom step and shaking the handles of the umpire's chair?
 
W

WF_Fan

New User
Was not in attendance for that. Prabhakar is generally a classy player so it could've been a bad call or heat of the moment.
 
M

mikej

Hall of Fame
WF_Fan said:
you would go 7-6 in the first set if you drew nadal in the first round of a masters series event? all credibility lost.
Click to expand...

we're talking about how close one is to winning - two sets away is where you start a match - and where your wake boy still was against mac when the match ended

sorry, thought i could make my point with humor, but i guess it's safer to spell it out for you
 
C

Clemson_tennis

Legend
WF_Fan said:
Was not in attendance for that. Prabhakar is generally a classy player so it could've been a bad call or heat of the moment.
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oh, thought you might be the guy who came and screamed "Go Wake" every once in a while and clapped louder than anyone I have ever heard clap.


I think Amogh's reaction was the culmination of several match interruptions due to Bresky leading Amogh to think he was getting screwed.
 
M

mikej

Hall of Fame
WF_Fan said:
and you would also have a 1-0 head to head record going into that nadal match?
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this is all tangential - we're talking how close they were to another point. on. that. day.

historical crap doesn't score points that day. losing a set certainly brings you no closer. he was two. full. sets. away.

aright, good luck in NCAAs, sort of a win win for me if you beat UGA anyway since i love seeing SEC teams go down
 
W

WF_Fan

New User
Clemson_tennis-- No wasnt me... do you agree with mikej? i respect your opinion more because it usually isn't followed with some strange comment about you having the same chance in two sets against nadal as Adam Lee would have against Styslinger. Also, do you agree with the statement of no one believing wf is a top team?
 
M

mikej

Hall of Fame
WF_Fan said:
Clemson_tennis-- No wasnt me... do you agree with mikej? i respect your opinion more because it usually isn't followed with some strange comment about you having the same chance in two sets against nadal as Adam Lee would have against Styslinger. Also, do you agree with the statement of no one believing wf is a top team?
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this is cute - clemson, please give his spirits a lift
 
C

Clemson_tennis

Legend
I don't think Wake is an elite team. I think they are capable of a big performance sometimes like also vs Tennessee this year but Ho could not finish it. But they also lost to UNC and VCU this year. The win over Duke was huge but as Duke has shown these last two years is that they can be out-fought if the going gets tough against an underdog. (UNC last year, Illinois,Cal and Wake this year).

Unlucky draw in the tournament.
 
Automator

Automator

Semi-Pro
WF_Fan said:
Also, do you agree with the statement of no one believing wf is a top team?
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Depends on what your definition of top team is.

You have to understand that tennis is a highly stratified sport, unlike basketball or football. In basketball or football, a team ranked between 20 and 25 has a decent shot at beating a Top 5 team. They'll probably lose more often than win, but they have a puncher's chance. This is simply not the case in tennis, where a team ranked 20 to 25 has pretty much no chance of beating a top 5 team. Upsets like that are exceedingly rare, so rare that I cannot recall one.

Wake beating Duke was a huge upset, but that doesn't mean the Deacs were suddenly good enough to beat Virginia. Duke hasn't been good enough to beat Virginia for the last seven years. They've come very close, but they haven't won since the 2006 ACC Tournament final. Beating Duke is one thing (it's not easy for any other ACC team to do it, but it obviously can be done), beating Virginia is another matter entirely (no ACC team has been able to do it for seven years, 106 straight matches).
 
A

andfor

Legend
Good overview on the hierarchy of college tennis Automator. The dubs point and 6 singles matches dual format prevents upsets from happening often.

Agree with you ga tennis. It UVA's title to lose. Still, the pressure they will face will be fun to follow and see if they can finally navigate it.
 
C

ClarkC

Hall of Fame
Automator said:
This is simply not the case in tennis, where a team ranked 20 to 25 has pretty much no chance of beating a top 5 team. Upsets like that are exceedingly rare, so rare that I cannot recall one.
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I think you meant this in the context of the NCAA tournament, rather than throughout the season. Sometimes a team starts out #5 in January because they were good last year, and the pollsters have refused to discount them due to graduations. A #20 team could certainly beat them.

Early in the season, you also have interesting results when a team has not yet gotten it together, has not adjusted to playing outdoors as early as an opponent from a different climate, has not adjusted to playing indoors yet, etc. #25 Illinois beat #5 Duke in a very early match just this year. But, by the time the NCAA tournament starts in May, a healthy #5 would be playing a #25 in an NCAA regional final hosted on the courts of the #5 team, and as you said, I don't remember a top 5 team failing to make the final 16.
 
C

Clemson_tennis

Legend
I don't know if the players and coaches are just saying cliche things for the camera but it seems like not many know how the rankings and seeings work. Players from Tennessee, Ole Miss and Baylor expressed concern over maybe not hosting. Drake players said they were worried they would not get in the field. Illinois thought they had a chance to host.
 
S

socaltennnis

Rookie
Ive heard that when a seeded team doesn't get to host, its because they might either have had some kind of infraction against them or a quality measure determined that they were not good hosts in years prior.
 
wrxinsc

wrxinsc

Professional
Don't know a lot about NCAA tennis but I do have a couple of local connections 'playing'. So rooting for them.

Harrison Richmond, from my town, plays for UVA. That is an easy homer choice.

And a player in league tennis with me coaches CCU. They get Duke in the first round. Chris's team won the Big South Tourney for an automatic bid.
 
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G

ga tennis

Hall of Fame
I just dont see anyone beating Virginias top 3. If Virginia wins the doubles point no one in the country will beat them. I LOVE MY DAWGS but they really overachieved this year.
 
J

JLyon

Hall of Fame
ga tennis said:
I also dont see any SEC teams losing first round.
Click to expand...

South Carolina has a tough in UNC-Wilmington
Vandy is so streaky ETSU could keep it close
Bama could have issues with USD
LSU will have hands full with Stanford

Of the 4 likely see LSU losing a tight one.
 
C

ClarkC

Hall of Fame
A little history of how seeds have done:

2003: Top 5 seeds all made the QFs. Seven of the eight seeds made the QFs; #8 seed was beaten in the round of 16. Upsets mostly happened between seeds in the QFs, as 1,5,6,7 were the four semifinalists.

2004: #5 Duke was upset 4-3 by Clemson in the regional final (presumably at Durham). The four semifinalists were 1-2-3-4 seeds.

2005: Top 5 made the round of 16. You can get good links to the regional results here, but the draw link there is stale.

2006: Same links problem here. Regional results show that the top 5 made the round of 16.

2007: Top 5 made the round of 16. Semifinalists were 1-3-4-10, as #10 Illinois upset #2 Ohio State in the QFs.

2008: Same links problem here. Top 5 made the QFs. 1-3-4-7 made the semis, with #7 Texas beating #2 Ohio State in the QFs.

2009: Top 5 made round of 16. #5 Tennessee was upset by Texas in the round of 16; the other four won.

2010: Top 5 made the round of 16. Then #3 Texas was upset by Oklahoma, while the other four won.

2011: Top 5 seeds made round of 16.

Looks like one top 5 team in a decade failed to make the final 16: #5 Duke in 2004.

I will edit this in a while. Tired of waiting for a page to load at the horrible NCAA web site, which is also a treasure trove of stale links and results pages that have no seed numbers.
 
M

mikej

Hall of Fame
ClarkC said:
Looks like one top 5 team in a decade failed to make the final 16: #5 Duke in 2004.

I will edit this in a while. Tired of waiting for a page to load at the horrible NCAA web site, which is also a treasure trove of stale links and results pages that have no seed numbers.
Click to expand...

haha, seemingly duke is the answer to every trivia question involving rare upsets, grrrrrr
 
S

SoCal10s

Hall of Fame
C

Clemson_tennis

Legend
mikej said:
haha, seemingly duke is the answer to every trivia question involving rare upsets, grrrrrr
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That 2004 Clemson team is still emblazoned all over the tennis center at Clemson. Was unranked in April and then ended up making the elite 8. Nathan Thompson and brothers, Jarmaine Jenkins, Clement Reix and company.
 
C

Clemson_tennis

Legend
ga tennis said:
Clemson Tennis i think your boys got a good chance to win its first 3 matches.
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Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Boise State is good but also not the strongest 3 seed. I do like our matchup with Tennessee a lot. And if we beat Tennessee than it's certainly possible to beat Mississippi State. We will see.
 
K

Kirijax

Hall of Fame
Clemson_tennis said:
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Boise State is good but also not the strongest 3 seed. I do like our matchup with Tennessee a lot. And if we beat Tennessee than it's certainly possible to beat Mississippi State. We will see.
Click to expand...

You got a good draw, Clemson! I'd be happy with a first rounder vs. any of the top 4 seeds if it meant we got in but oh well. Maybe next year.
 
A

Art Rust Jr

Rookie
ClarkC said:
A little history of how seeds have done:

2003: Top 5 seeds all made the QFs. Seven of the eight seeds made the QFs; #8 seed was beaten in the round of 16. Upsets mostly happened between seeds in the QFs, as 1,5,6,7 were the four semifinalists.

2004: #5 Duke was upset 4-3 by Clemson in the regional final (presumably at Durham). The four semifinalists were 1-2-3-4 seeds.

2005: Top 5 made the round of 16. You can get good links to the regional results here, but the draw link there is stale.

2006: Same links problem here. Regional results show that the top 5 made the round of 16.

2007: Top 5 made the round of 16. Semifinalists were 1-3-4-10, as #10 Illinois upset #2 Ohio State in the QFs.

2008: Same links problem here. Top 5 made the QFs. 1-3-4-7 made the semis, with #7 Texas beating #2 Ohio State in the QFs.

2009: Top 5 made round of 16. #5 Tennessee was upset by Texas in the round of 16; the other four won.

2010: Top 5 made the round of 16. Then #3 Texas was upset by Oklahoma, while the other four won.

2011: Top 5 seeds made round of 16.

Looks like one top 5 team in a decade failed to make the final 16: #5 Duke in 2004.

I will edit this in a while. Tired of waiting for a page to load at the horrible NCAA web site, which is also a treasure trove of stale links and results pages that have no seed numbers.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the data. I was wondering, and I'd have to think it's incredibly rare on both the men's and women's side (probably even more so for the women), but how many top seeds, if any, have lost in the opening round? Meaning a four seed knocking off a one seed at any of the sixteen opening round sites.
 
TopDawg

TopDawg

G.O.A.T.
Art Rust Jr said:
Thanks for the data. I was wondering, and I'd have to think it's incredibly rare on both the men's and women's side (probably even more so for the women), but how many top seeds, if any, have lost in the opening round? Meaning a four seed knocking off a one seed at any of the sixteen opening round sites.
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I'd be very surprised if a 4 seed has ever beat a 1 - heck I'd be surprised if a 4 got as close as 4-2 against a 1. If I get a chance I'll do some digging unless someone else beats me to it.
 
C

ClarkC

Hall of Fame
SoCal10s said:
so year after Virginia has been the favorite to win... so what happens ? :confused:
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Stuff like Robert Farah and Steve Johnson are what happened. If they are still eligible to play in the NCAAs this year for USC, then Virginia will have to wait another year for a shot at the title. If not, Virginia has a great shot right now.
 
B

B1G Tennis

New User
ga tennis said:
I just dont see anyone beating Virginias top 3. If Virginia wins the doubles point no one in the country will beat them. I LOVE MY DAWGS but they really overachieved this year.
Click to expand...

I think UCLA and Ohio State could both take two out of three from Virginia. Luckily for Virginia, they'll only have to play one of those two (at most) and they'll likely be exhausted from tough semis and quarters. It's a great bracket for the Cavaliers.
 
K

Kirijax

Hall of Fame
B1G Tennis said:
I think UCLA and Ohio State could both take two out of three from Virginia. Luckily for Virginia, they'll only have to play one of those two (at most) and they'll likely be exhausted from tough semis and quarters. It's a great bracket for the Cavaliers.
Click to expand...

Cavaliers, your table is ready.
 
T

tennishmang

New User
the day off after quarterfinals will help a ton for the winner of the USC/Ohio St match that'll be a really physical battle and help offset any fatigue. I don't see it being that big an issue unless weather balloons into the mid 80s or 90s.

back when the tournament used to only have a day off after rnd of 16 then play quarter semis finals back to back to back did we worry so much about fatigue. these guys are pretty darn fit and have full training staffs with them. they get pedialyte, IV fluids, you name it to stay hydrated.
 
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