Who will finish as 2013 Year End #1?

Who will be 2013 Year End #1?

  • Total voters
    57
  • Poll closed .
C

CDNguy87

Hall of Fame
Heading into the big North American HC events, 3 players still have a realistic shot to finish 2013 ranked #1 .

Current Race:

1) Nadal- 7,010
2) Djokovic- 6,230
3) Murray- 5,160

Djokovic probably is the favourite at this point based on him vastly outperforming Nadal in the latter portion of the season over the past few years. In all likelihood, Murray needs to win the USO and probably at least one of Canada or Cincy to keep his chances alive. Nadal can really take a stranglehold on it with a USO win combined with a decent run at either of the North American masters.

If there's a repeat of last year with Murray defeating Djoker in the USO final, we could have a legitimate 3-way race to YE #1 post-USO with only 2 M1000s and the YEC left. In that scenario, Murray might be the one most motivated to end #1 and consequently go all-out for Shanghai and Paris, whereas Rafa in any case will probably skip at least one, if not both of them.
 
tennis_pro

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
At this point I would favor Djokovic over Nadal with Nadal slightly above Murray.

It's a bit of a wild guess though as there are several questions to be answered. I can't wait to see how Nadal does in Canada. I actually put him as the winner in my ATP Fantasy Draw.
 
tipsa...don'tlikehim!

tipsa...don'tlikehim!

Talk Tennis Guru
Nadal has a good chance as he has no point to defend, i like his chances!!
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tennis_pro

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
tipsa...don'tlikehim! said:
Nadal has a good chance as he has no point to defend, i like his chances!!
Click to expand...

So because someone has no points to defend his chances go up? Man, logic ain't one of your strongest facets, is it?

Djokovic must be the least favorite to win of all the contenders, at least according to this.
 
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T-Noone

T-Noone

Professional
Let's face it, Nadal isn't going to be racking up points toward the end of this season. The USO will decide but I think advantage Djokovic over Murray.
 
C

CDNguy87

Hall of Fame
T-Noone said:
Let's face it, Nadal isn't going to be racking up points toward the end of this season. The USO will decide but I think advantage Djokovic over Murray.
Click to expand...



I agree the points expectations for Nadal should be low. However, he has ~800 point lead over Novak and a huge 2,000 point cushion over Murray. That's pretty significant at this point in the season. He may not need a ton of additional points depending on how the remaining titles are distributed.

I see Nadal making a real effort to win Canada, probably tanking/withdrawing from Cincy, then probably making one last huge push for the USO. Post-USO, I think his main focus will be on Spain's DC Playoff and the WTF. However, if he can make the Final or win in Montreal and make the SF or Final at the USO, he'll still have a very good chance at #1 as long as someone other than Novak wins the USO. The scenarios are rather endless at this point, but if for example Nadal wins Montreal, loses in the semis at the USO while someone like Delpo ends up winning, he'd still be in an excellent position.
 
C

CDNguy87

Hall of Fame
Just realized Ferrer is only about 700 points behind Murray in the race. All he needs is to pull a 2003 Roddick by sweeping the North American hard courts to have a shot at #1. Seems probable considering he's never even won a M1000 his whole career.
 
Tenez101

Tenez101

Banned
It is between Rafa and Nole, and heavily depends on the performance of both in the upcoming hardcourt season.
 
6

6-3 6-0

Guest
NDjokovic and only a very poor season ending performance can dethrone him.
 
A

adil1972

Hall of Fame
which one of you tennis wish didnt come true

i badly wanted nadal to fail the drug test when he won 2008 Wimbledon
 
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tipsa...don'tlikehim!

tipsa...don'tlikehim!

Talk Tennis Guru
tennis_pro said:
So because someone has no points to defend his chances go up? Man, logic ain't one of your strongest facets, is it?
Click to expand...

in other words, Nadal is number 4 because he didn't play 6 months last year, so far he is the best of the year, so I like his chances to finish number 1.. understand ? ;) Djokovic can lose points, especially at the WTF.
 
tennis_pro

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
tipsa...don'tlikehim! said:
in other words, Nadal is number 4 because he didn't play 6 months last year, so far he is the best of the year, so I like his chances to finish number 1.. understand ?
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In theory yes but now we've got a Slam, 4 Masters and the WTF - all on hard courts. You're telling me that Nadal will gain as many points as Djokovic in the remaining big tournaments, all on hard courts? Cause Djokovic is only 800 points behind in the race which means - 1 slip from him and a final/win from Djokovic and his advantage is gone.

tipsa...don'tlikehim! said:
Djokovic can lose points, especially at the WTF.
Click to expand...

Please, tell me more.

"Defending" points (from 2012) has no bearing on who'll finish 2013 at whichever position.
 
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R

RAFAwon09usopen

Banned
FreeBird said:
Words of truth just like your username. :twisted:
Click to expand...

Nadal 7010
Djokovic 6230
Murray 5160

Like I said, Nadal is killing Djokovic in the ATP Race. It will be Nadal's 3rd Player Of The Year award since 2008.

Most people on this forum thought Nadal wouldn't win the US Open, ever, if you remember correctly. I was only a year off. Others were an eternity off. Plus I wasn't aware of how severe his stomach injury was. A few weeks before the US Open it was a strain. It became a 15mm tear after he'd played with it more, and we saw the result - 97mph 1st serve average.
 
Rock Strongo

Rock Strongo

Legend
CDNguy87 said:
Just realized Ferrer is only about 700 points behind Murray in the race. All he needs is to pull a 2003 Roddick by sweeping the North American hard courts to have a shot at #1. Seems probable considering he's never even won a M1000 his whole career.
Click to expand...

He won Paris last year.
 
6

6-3 6-0

Guest
RAFAwon09usopen said:
Nadal 7010
Djokovic 6230
Murray 5160

Like I said, Nadal is killing Djokovic in the ATP Race. It will be Nadal's 3rd Player Of The Year award since 2008.

Most people on this forum thought Nadal wouldn't win the US Open, ever, if you remember correctly. I was only a year off. Others were an eternity off. Plus I wasn't aware of how severe his stomach injury was. A few weeks before the US Open it was a strain. It became a 15mm tear after he'd played with it more, and we saw the result - 97mph 1st serve average.
Click to expand...

I am no NDjokovic fan, but do you realize that clay season is over? The hard courts favour NDjokovic more than RNadal. Even AMurray is better than ever and is VERY much capable of beating RNadal on HC. Compared to 2010, NDjokovic and AMurray has improved a lot.
 
xan

xan

Hall of Fame
explaining to people that defending points doesn't matter at all in determining year n1, but who leads/wins the race does. why is something that simple, with such simple concert so hard to explain?
 
tipsa...don'tlikehim!

tipsa...don'tlikehim!

Talk Tennis Guru
xan said:
explaining to people that defending points doesn't matter at all in determining year n1, but who leads/wins the race does. why is something that simple, with such simple concert so hard to explain?
Click to expand...

race matters if you want to determine who will be number 1 in december, but defending matters if you are talking about the number 1 seat anytime of the year.
Thats why i said Nadal has good chances to be number 1 after the AO 2014.
 
tennis_pro

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
tipsa...don'tlikehim! said:
race matters if you want to determine who will be number 1 in december, but defending matters if you are talking about the number 1 seat anytime of the year.
Thats why i said Nadal has good chances to be number 1 after the AO 2014.
Click to expand...

You said he can "finish no 1 after AO 2014" which either means you have no idea how the race/ranking works or you used an inappropriate word. You can only finish the SEASON at no 1,2,3 or whichever position.
 
Monsieur_DeLarge

Monsieur_DeLarge

Semi-Pro
CDNguy87 said:
I agree the points expectations for Nadal should be low. However, he has ~800 point lead over Novak and a huge 2,000 point cushion over Murray. That's pretty significant at this point in the season. He may not need a ton of additional points depending on how the remaining titles are distributed.

I see Nadal making a real effort to win Canada, probably tanking/withdrawing from Cincy, then probably making one last huge push for the USO. Post-USO, I think his main focus will be on Spain's DC Playoff and the WTF. However, if he can make the Final or win in Montreal and make the SF or Final at the USO, he'll still have a very good chance at #1 as long as someone other than Novak wins the USO. The scenarios are rather endless at this point, but if for example Nadal wins Montreal, loses in the semis at the USO while someone like Delpo ends up winning, he'd still be in an excellent position.
Click to expand...

I posted about this a few weeks back. Since winning Toronto in 2008, Rafa has won precisely one major (Masters or greater) tournament post-Wimbledon, at the US Open in 2010. In fact he hasn't even reached a Masters final since Shanghai in 2009. The only two years where he's scored more than 2000 points after Wimbledon were the two years he won at SW19, suggesting his grass form is a great barometer of his hardcourt form. The defeat to Darcis might have been an aberration, but equally it might be a portent of bad days ahead.

Based on recent history, his best chance of scoring points is at the final slam of the year, with middling results elsewhere. Unfortunately for Rafa I think Murray and Djokovic are now too consistent, and will be monopolizing most of the hardcourt finals. I'm guessing Nadal will accumulate maybe 2000-2500 more points by the year's end.

Nole, on the other hand, has been getting better every year, and scored over 5000 points in the second half of 2012. Even with Murray looking like a bigger challenge than ever, I'd expect him to score 4500-5000 again, especially since he's more consistently successful at the points-rich Tour Finals.

Murray's certainly capable of being the biggest points-scorer from now until December, but then again I think he's also capable of big slip-ups, certainly compared to Nole. Still, in the last four slams he's played his record is F-W-F-W, and I think he'll continue to do well. Anywhere from 4000-4500 more points for Andy.

My guesstimates would leave the end-of-year rankings looking like this:
1. Djokovic (10500-11000)
2. Nadal (9000-9500)
3. Murray (9000-9500)

So right now I'm fairly confident Djokovic will keep the #1 ranking all year, but it's a total toss-up between Rafa and Andy for #2.


Regards,
MDL
 
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R

RAFAwon09usopen

Banned
6-3 6-0 said:
I am no NDjokovic fan, but do you realize that clay season is over? The hard courts favour NDjokovic more than RNadal. Even AMurray is better than ever and is VERY much capable of beating RNadal on HC. Compared to 2010, NDjokovic and AMurray has improved a lot.
Click to expand...

Nadal won Indian Wells, beating Federer and Del Potro. I know you don't follow tennis, so you missed that. What did Djokovic do no hardcourts this year? Almost lost the 5th set to Wawrinka at AO, and won the AO final when Murray chocked on a feather. Murray is no better than 2011, when Nadal beat him at the US Open. The only thing that has changed since 2011, is that Federer has declined more (and still beat Murray at Wimbledon last year), Djokovic has declined more (and still beat Murray at the Australian Open), and Nadal has taken 7 months off and returned to win 7 events and lead the ATP Race. Doesn't look good for Murray, and certainly doesn't look good for Djokovic after Nadal broke his heart at Roland Garros. This is again Nadal's world. Player Of The Year Nadal for the 3rd time since 2008, sadly for you.

BTW, you aren't even intelligent enough to come up with your own posting style. That's why nobody respects you.
 
Roger2003Wimbledon

Roger2003Wimbledon

Banned
RAFAwon09usopen said:
Nadal won Indian Wells, beating Federer and Del Potro. I know you don't follow tennis, so you missed that. What did Djokovic do no hardcourts this year? Almost lost the 5th set to Wawrinka at AO, and won the AO final when Murray chocked on a feather. Murray is no better than 2011, when Nadal beat him at the US Open. The only thing that has changed since 2011, is that Federer has declined more (and still beat Murray at Wimbledon last year), Djokovic has declined more (and still beat Murray at the Australian Open), and Nadal has taken 7 months off and returned to win 7 events and lead the ATP Race. Doesn't look good for Murray, and certainly doesn't look good for Djokovic after Nadal broke his heart at Roland Garros. This is again Nadal's world. Player Of The Year Nadal for the 3rd time since 2008, sadly for you.

BTW, you aren't even intelligent enough to come up with your own posting style. That's why nobody respects you.
Click to expand...

I respect him.
 
xan

xan

Hall of Fame
RAFAwon09usopen said:
Nadal won Indian Wells, beating Federer and Del Potro. I know you don't follow tennis, so you missed that. What did Djokovic do no hardcourts this year? Almost lost the 5th set to Wawrinka at AO, and won the AO final when Murray chocked on a feather. Murray is no better than 2011, when Nadal beat him at the US Open. The only thing that has changed since 2011, is that Federer has declined more (and still beat Murray at Wimbledon last year), Djokovic has declined more (and still beat Murray at the Australian Open), and Nadal has taken 7 months off and returned to win 7 events and lead the ATP Race. Doesn't look good for Murray, and certainly doesn't look good for Djokovic after Nadal broke his heart at Roland Garros. This is again Nadal's world. Player Of The Year Nadal for the 3rd time since 2008, sadly for you.

BTW, you aren't even intelligent enough to come up with your own posting style. That's why nobody respects you.
Click to expand...

you aren't even man enough to stay behind single account but have to use different one each time you don't dare show your face. that's why no one respects you.
 
6

6-3 6-0

Guest
RAFAwon09usopen said:
Nadal won Indian Wells, beating Federer and Del Potro. I know you don't follow tennis, so you missed that. What did Djokovic do no hardcourts this year? Almost lost the 5th set to Wawrinka at AO, and won the AO final when Murray chocked on a feather. Murray is no better than 2011, when Nadal beat him at the US Open. The only thing that has changed since 2011, is that Federer has declined more (and still beat Murray at Wimbledon last year), Djokovic has declined more (and still beat Murray at the Australian Open), and Nadal has taken 7 months off and returned to win 7 events and lead the ATP Race. Doesn't look good for Murray, and certainly doesn't look good for Djokovic after Nadal broke his heart at Roland Garros. This is again Nadal's world. Player Of The Year Nadal for the 3rd time since 2008, sadly for you.

BTW, you aren't even intelligent enough to come up with your own posting style. That's why nobody respects you.
Click to expand...

Respect? As if anybody respects you? :lol:
Nevermind, you'll never understand!


What did NDjokovic do this year at HC? He won the FREAKING slam on it!! What a delusional creature you're. I pity you! :(

Winning a slam >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Winning a masters

No, t**ds like you will never get it and continue spewing your BS everywhere.

Good luck with that! ;)
 
C

CDNguy87

Hall of Fame
Monsieur_DeLarge said:
I posted about this a few weeks back. Since winning Toronto in 2008, Rafa has won precisely one major (Masters or greater) tournament post-Wimbledon, at the US Open in 2010. In fact he hasn't even reached a Masters final since Shanghai in 2009. The only two years where he's scored more than 2000 points after Wimbledon were the two years he won at SW19, suggesting his grass form is a great barometer of his hardcourt form. The defeat to Darcis might have been an aberration, but equally it might be a portent of bad days ahead.

Based on recent history, his best chance of scoring points is at the final slam of the year, with middling results elsewhere. Unfortunately for Rafa I think Murray and Djokovic are now too consistent, and will be monopolizing most of the hardcourt finals. I'm guessing Nadal will accumulate maybe 2000-2500 more points by the year's end.

Nole, on the other hand, has been getting better every year, and scored over 5000 points in the second half of 2012. Even with Murray looking like a bigger challenge than ever, I'd expect him to score 4500-5000 again, especially since he's more consistently successful at the points-rich Tour Finals.

Murray's certainly capable of being the biggest points-scorer from now until December, but then again I think he's also capable of big slip-ups, certainly compared to Nole. Still, in the last four slams he's played his record is F-W-F-W, and I think he'll continue to do well. Anywhere from 4000-4500 more points for Andy.

My guesstimates would leave the end-of-year rankings looking like this:
1. Djokovic (10500-11000)
2. Nadal (9000-9500)
3. Murray (9000-9500)

So right now I'm fairly confident Djokovic will keep the #1 ranking all year, but it's a total toss-up between Rafa and Andy for #2.


Regards,
MDL
Click to expand...


Excellent analysis. However, I really can't see Djokovic matching his post-Wimbledon point totals from the past 2 years. His form hasn't seemed as good this season, even on hardcourts early in the season. Also, his late season run last year will be very difficult to match. Aside from probably tanking at Paris the week before the WTF, he was solid in every summer/fall HC tournament: - won Canada, final at Cincy, final at USO, won Shanghai, won WTF. I just can't see him repeating that. He'll probably accumulate the most points out of anyone still, but nowhere near the same level.

As for Rafa, I just have the sense that after last season's layoff, he's probably more hungry to prove himself on HCs now than in any other season, aside from possibly 2010. After winning IW, I think he feels fairly confident on HCs and combined with strong motivation, I see him making really deep runs at both Montreal and USO. Whether that will be enough to fend off Djokovic given a relatively precarious 800-point lead is debatable, but I definitely see Rafa exceeding his unimpressive post-Wimbly point totals from past seasons and Djokovic falling short of his very solid ones.
 
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C

CDNguy87

Hall of Fame
Updated Race post-Cincy:

1) Nadal- 9,010
2) Djokovic- 6,770
3) Murray- 5,430


I knew Nadal would really make an effort at these HC events, although I certainly never expected him to take both Canada and Cincy.

If Nadal wins the USO, it's basically over. Even if Djokovic beats Nadal in the final, Nadal would still have a 1400 point lead, meaning Djokovic would likely need to win Shanghai + WTF to even have a chance. Djokovic really needs to hope for an early Nadal USO exit. If someone other than these 3 wins the USO, Nadal would still be the overwhelming favourite to finish #1.

Murray pretty much needs to win all of USO + Shanghai + WTF to even have a shot at this point. Even then he'd need Rafa to stumble badly or skip most of the fall season.
 
tipsa...don'tlikehim!

tipsa...don'tlikehim!

Talk Tennis Guru
tipsa...don'tlikehim! said:
Nadal has a good chance as he has no point to defend, i like his chances!! [IG]http://forum.sospronostics.com/icones/smilies/fumi.gif[/IMG] [IG]http://forum.sospronostics.com/icones/smilies/fumi.gif[/IMG] [IG]http://forum.sospronostics.com/icones/smilies/fumi.gif[/IMG]
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tennis_pro said:
So because someone has no points to defend his chances go up? Man, logic ain't one of your strongest facets, is it?

Djokovic must be the least favorite to win of all the contenders, at least according to this.
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dr325i said:
Great...
To back to basic math, now
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tennis_pro said:
images
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tipsa...don'tlikehim! said:
Nadal has a big chance to win the AO 2014 so yeah he can finish number 1 after the AO.
He also has a good chance to win the US open.
kaola.gif
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tennis_pro said:
You said he can "finish no 1 after AO 2014" which either means you have no idea how the race/ranking works or you used an inappropriate word. You can only finish the SEASON at no 1,2,3 or whichever position.
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tennis_pro and dr325i, back to basic maths now...

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T

timnz

Legend
Difficult

I find it difficult to see how Djokovic will end the year as number 1. It seems a much better bet to see Nadal in that position. Djokovic is hugely behind in race points. With regard to the 52 week ranking - nadal will gain a lot on Djokovic from the US open even if he loses the final to Novak. Djokovic has a lot to defend for the rest of the year...whereas it is all cream for Nadal as he has nothing to defend.
 
veroniquem

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
I agree. I think Nadal getting to #1 is not a matter of "if" anymore but a matter of "when". For Djoko to save his #1, he would have had to play better in masters.
 
abmk

abmk

Bionic Poster
With his QF loss to stan at the USO, murray is out of the race for #1 this year .....b/w djoko and nadal now ...
 
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