A dirty Sinner or a Jannik high on clay? How many clay titles will Jannik Sinner win in his career?

[Rovesciarete]

Jannik Sinner's brilliant final run of 2023 has cemented his status as one of the very best (indoor) hardcourt players. In fact according to Elo only Djokovic is, slightly, ahead of him. Big success on clay has eluded him despite the perception of him was quite different in 2021 when Jeff Sackmann wrote about his missing first serve points:

Finally, the clay-centricity of the list above might be reason to pause before pegging Sinner as an eventual #1. But it also suggests that the teenager is developing exactly the right kind of game to excel on dirt. For the next couple of months, Italian fans will have plenty to get excited about.

His last three seasons on clay have been quite disappointing for many but it masks the fact that he has been performing quite well if you look at stats and Elo. In 2024 clay be a far more important surface than usual as the Olympics are a huge draw for many players including Djokovic, Nadal, Alcaraz and Sinner.*

Jannik's game seems to be suited very well to win a lot on clay. His game relies less on the serve but will profit greatly from the recent improvements. His ability to win return games is in a cluster with the absolute best of the sport and he is one of the best ball strikers on the tour. His backhand has become more solid and more varied and is able to deliver sharper angles and better down the line attacks with high levels of spin. His forehand is tremendous and can be flattened out, delivered with heavy weight or rolled over will lots of spin. Time permitting he likes to run around it to go big inside out or inside in which works generally well on clay.

The combination of his skills and a height of 193 or 6'4'' should allow him to be aggressive against high bouncing balls and to take time away. Resilience against heavy balls must improve as he lost against big ball strikers like Rune, Cerundolo and Altmaier. As one of the best drop shot makers on the tour and a strong net player he can mix the game up nicely against opponents defending very deep against his powerful ground strokes.

There is no doubt that his physical drop offs have cost him wins but Jannik has become more and more athletic as a result of steady improvement. I doubt that he will reach the pure prowess demonstrated by Alcaraz but he has good chances to go a good way down the Djokovic path, becoming a more enduring competitor.

-------------

The give the Clay poll some perspective: Fognini got 8, Thiem 10, Federer 11 and Djokovic at least 18. Nadal has won over 60!! Jannik won't play that many low level clay tournaments as he will focus on the big ones. With Djokovic one of the greatest clay court competitors is still performing at a very high level and Nadal which has him stopped twice at RG will come back while with Alcaraz one of the greatest tennis talents of the last fifty years has arisen at a younger age. Tsitsipas, Zverev and Ruud are still very active and dangerous on the dirt and Rune will improve. Shelton might be more than a dark horse, especially in Madrid.


*The international tennis community seems to undervalue the importance of the Olympic Games for (European) athletes.

 

[Rovesciarete]

2023 CLAY: Total Points Won Percentage

Sinner looks too good with those stats as he has a smaller sample size and faced weaker competition than Alcaraz and Djokovic. Still he should have done much better overall with a more normal outcome. This goes some way to confirm the old Jeff Sackmann observation.

Rk	Player	M	DR	Points	TPW%	TB W%	TB/S	S W%	G W%
2	Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]	28	1.31	4131	55.0%	50.0%	8.6%	81.4%	61.3%
4	Jannik Sinner [ITA]	11	1.29	1815	54.7%	50.0%	19.4%	67.7%	59.4%
1	Novak Djokovic [SRB]	15	1.29	2727	54.5%	80.0%	23.3%	76.7%	58.4%
10	Taylor Fritz [USA]	17	1.26	2673	53.6%	42.9%	15.6%	62.2%	55.5%
6	Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE]	22	1.25	3129	53.5%	66.7%	11.3%	71.7%	56.6%
5	Andrey Rublev [RUS]	24	1.20	3999	53.3%	63.6%	17.7%	71.0%	57.1%
7	Alexander Zverev [GER]	27	1.19	3900	53.1%	44.4%	13.6%	68.2%	56.7%
35	Aslan Karatsev [RUS]	18	1.18	2643	53.0%	85.7%	15.6%	71.1%	55.1%
39	Roman Safiullin [RUS]	12	1.16	1631	52.7%	100.0%	18.5%	66.7%	53.5%
3	Daniil Medvedev [RUS]	13	1.13	2024	52.6%	60.0%	15.6%	68.8%	56.2%
19	Nicolas Jarry [CHI]	29	1.17	4360	52.4%	69.2%	17.8%	65.8%	54.1%
30	Tomas Martin Etcheverry [ARG]	32	1.15	4839	52.4%	41.2%	21.3%	62.5%	55.3%
11	Casper Ruud [NOR]	30	1.13	4729	52.3%	61.5%	16.9%	67.5%	55.5%
18	Cameron Norrie [GBR]	25	1.12	3896	52.0%	71.4%	11.1%	63.5%	54.2%
28	Sebastian Baez [ARG]	32	1.13	4765	51.9%	70.0%	12.8%	60.3%	52.8%
27	Lorenzo Musetti [ITA]	27	1.11	3813	51.9%	66.7%	4.5%	56.1%	54.2%
8	Holger Rune [DEN]	20	1.11	3493	51.8%	62.5%	14.3%	67.9%	54.2%
15	Karen Khachanov [RUS]	15	1.13	2693	51.8%	57.1%	16.3%	60.5%	53.2%

 

[Rovesciarete]

I had a bit of fun to bring up the CLAY splits of those four players. Rafa is the King of Clay, Djokovic and also Alcaraz will be considered all-time greats on that surface while Sinner has been rather decent so far. With the fewest games played Jannik had the biggest, but deceiving large performance jump in 2023 while Alcaraz improved certainly a lot based on a good sample size. Djokovic was also above his career best, helped in part by the absence of Rafa and less so Roger.

Interesting that Nadal's 2022 seasons TPW clusters well with the 2023 of other 3 guys. 2024 we will be one of the most interesting clay season in years!

NADAL CLAY Career and 2022 splits​

Split	Win%	Set%	Game%	TB%	Hld%	Brk%	A%	DF%	1stIn	1st%	2nd%	SPW	RPW	TPW	DR
Clay	91.0%	85.5%	64.0%	67.3%	84.5%	42.9%	2.9%	2.0%	69.7%	70.4%	56.9%	66.3%	46.8%	56.2%	1.39

Clay

83.3%

77.1%

60.7%

100.0%

79.4%

39.8%

2.8%

2.9%

67.1%

68.8%

57.8%

65.2%

45.4%

54.9%

1.30

DJOKOVIC CLAY Career and 2023​

Split	Win%	Set%	Game%	TB%	Hld%	Brk%	A%	DF%	1stIn	1st%	2nd%	SPW	RPW	TPW	DR
Clay	80.6%	73.9%	58.9%	66.0%	82.0%	35.4%	4.9%	2.6%	65.8%	70.7%	54.1%	65.0%	43.7%	54.2%	1.25

Clay

80.0%

76.7%

58.6%

80.0%

81.0%

35.3%

5.9%

3.1%

66.9%

71.6%

53.2%

65.5%

44.5%

54.5%

1.29

ALCARAZ CLAY Career and 2023​

Split	Win%	Set%	Game%	TB%	Hld%	Brk%	A%	DF%	1stIn	1st%	2nd%	SPW	RPW	TPW	DR
Clay	82.1%	73.3%	58.2%	61.3%	80.7%	35.6%	3.5%	2.7%	66.1%	69.8%	53.8%	64.4%	43.6%	53.6%	1.22

Clay

89.3%

81.4%

61.2%

50.0%

82.8%

39.6%

4.8%

2.5%

67.3%

69.9%

56.2%

65.4%

45.3%

55.0%

1.31

SINNER CLAY Career and 2023​

Split	Win%	Set%	Game%	TB%	Hld%	Brk%	A%	DF%	1stIn	1st%	2nd%	SPW	RPW	TPW	DR
Clay	67.2%	63.2%	55.0%	43.5%	78.0%	32.2%	4.3%	2.6%	59.2%	69.0%	53.1%	62.5%	42.0%	52.1%	1.12

Clay

66.7%

66.7%

58.8%

50.0%

80.9%

37.9%

3.6%

2.3%

58.0%

71.1%

57.0%

65.2%

44.8%

54.7%

1.29

 

[Rovesciarete]

@nachiket nolefam: I quoted you here!

He is so young that it's hard to say.

At his age, Nole had won a Rome title and played Nadal tough in 3 different masters, once going over 4 hr matches. Roger had already started playing hamburgs. Sinner is behind the curve but he won't have someone like Nadal for 15 years so he might achieve much more in coming years. 22 today is also not the same as 22 in Roger's days.

Agreed, but I will make a bold prediction for the fun of it

8-10 is obviously much more likely...

 

[Rovesciarete]

Here we have the pretty predictive 50/50 clay/overall Elo mix:

Rank​	Player​	Age​	Elo​	​	HardRaw​	ClayRaw​	GrassRaw​	​	hElo​	cElo​	gElo​	​	Peak Match​	Peak Age​	Peak Elo​
3​	Carlos Alcaraz​	20.5​	2148.8​	​	1983.1​	2039.0​	1909.3​	​	2065.9​	2093.9​	2029.0​	​	2023 Canada R16​	20.2​	2239.7​
1​	Novak Djokovic​	36.4​	2226.7​	​	2131.4​	1960.1​	1898.1​	​	2179.1​	2093.4​	2062.4​	​	2016 Miami F​	28.8​	2470.3​
2​	Jannik Sinner​	22.2​	2196.7​	​	2124.6​	1913.5​	1733.0​	​	2160.7​	2055.1​	1964.9​	​	2023 Davis Cup Finals F​	22.2​	2196.7​
9​	Stefanos Tsitsipas​	25.2​	1973.9​	​	1879.1​	2005.1​	1650.8​	​	1926.5​	1989.5​	1812.4​	​	2021 Roland Garros SF​	22.8​	2133.4​
4​	Daniil Medvedev​	27.7​	2104.4​	​	2026.2​	1850.0​	1751.2​	​	2065.3​	1977.2​	1927.8​	​	2022 Australian Open SF​	25.9​	2191.9​
5​	Alexander Zverev​	26.5​	2024.0​	​	1894.4​	1917.9​	1619.4​	​	1959.2​	1971.0​	1821.7​	​	2022 Atp Cup RR​	24.7​	2161.7​
6​	Andrey Rublev​	26.0​	2020.5​	​	1910.5​	1918.9​	1757.6​	​	1965.5​	1969.7​	1889.0​	​	2021 Monte Carlo SF​	23.4​	2106.2​
16​	Casper Ruud​	24.8​	1895.1​	​	1724.1​	1940.5​	1412.8​	​	1809.6​	1917.8​	1653.9​	​	2022 Roland Garros SF​	23.4​	2064.0​
12​	Holger Rune​	20.5​	1936.0​	​	1781.3​	1897.3​	1631.9​	​	1858.6​	1916.6​	1784.0​	​	2023 Roland Garros R16​	20.0​	2070.1​
7​	Grigor Dimitrov​	32.4​	2010.9​	​	1887.3​	1802.7​	1611.6​	​	1949.1​	1906.8​	1811.3​	​	2014 Canada QF​	23.2​	2090.6​

Novak and Carlos are obviously well ahead of the rest while Jannik is almost exactly between them and Stefanos. This fits to some degree my view even if I sense a bigger gap between the top 2 and him. Still he is imho at least in a group with Stefanos, Alexander and company.

 

[Jonesy]

He has the potential to be great on all surfaces. But he is still injury prone with so many tournaments on his schedule, cut the small ones and clay wise focus only on the 4 that matter.

 

[Rovesciarete]

He has the potential to be great on all surfaces. But he is still injury prone with so many tournaments on his schedule, cut the small ones and clay wise focus only on the 4 that matter.

I think he has good chances in all the big 5 ones, maybe Monte Carlo less so as he should do well in the Sunshine Double. Madrid might also turn out well if he keeps improving his serve or at least steadies it. Arguably the biggest question mark is his allergy...

For him the Olympic Games on clay might be the most important followed by RG and Rome. Madrid the least well below Monte Carlo. It is actually not too unlikely that he will win one of them.

 

[dking68]

He’s very underrated on clay. Remember he demolished Alcaraz in 3 sets in Umag in 2022, 1 and 1 in the second and third sets. Also he was ahead in the first 2 sets when he played Rafa on Chatrier in 2020. I think if he hadn’t had pollen allergies he would’ve been a Rome champion and a Roland Garros finalist already (should’ve made the Roland Garros final in 2022)

 

[Rovesciarete]

He’s very underrated on clay. Remember he demolished Alcaraz in 3 sets in Umag in 2022, 1 and 1 in the second and third sets. Also he was ahead in the first 2 sets when he played Rafa on Chatrier in 2020. I think if he hadn’t had pollen allergies he would’ve been a Rome champion and a Roland Garros finalist already (should’ve made the Roland Garros final in 2022)

A bit too farfetched for my taste but the chances will be there in the future. He constructs points much better now.

 

[dking68]

A bit too farfetched for my taste but the chances will be there in the future. He constructs points much better now.

The Roland Garros final was well within his reach in 2022. I’m sure he would’ve defeated Casper in the semifinals and Cilic in the QF

 

[dking68]

@Jonesy what are your predictions for Janniks clay results in 2024?

 

[Rovesciarete]

The Roland Garros final was well within his reach in 2022. I’m sure he would’ve defeated Casper in the semifinals and Cilic in the QF

Agreed, it was quite likely. Point taken.

 

[dking68]

Agreed, it was quite likely. Point taken.

He won all his matches in straight sets and breadsticked Rublev in the first before he withdrew in that fourth round. He will be very dangerous at Roland Garros next year. I expect him to be seeded third at RG

 

[Rovesciarete]

He won all his matches in straight sets and breadsticked Rublev in the first before he withdrew in that fourth round. He will be very dangerous at Roland Garros next year. I expect him to be seeded third at RG

A bit unlikely considering that Charlie and Daniil have such a lead and have nothing or almost to defend down under, Jannik needs a deep run there and a very good European clay swing.

 

[dking68]

A bit unlikely considering that Charlie and Daniil have such a lead and have nothing or almost to defend down under, Jannik needs a deep run there and a very good European clay swing.

Daniil has 1000 points to defend in Rome and Medvedev has 4 hard court titles to defend between February and march. Daniil has never defended an ATP title. It’s reasonable to see Sinner be #3 at RG

 

[dking68]

Also @Rovesciarete i think Sinner is a better hard court player than Daniil right now. Also to add to my previous point - he made the final of IW too in addition to his 4 hard court titles. You and I both know he won’t be defending those points

 

[Rovesciarete]

Thinking about it more I'm shifting towards your view. Not that unlikely.

I have to say the Foro Italico has been almost cursed. He faced a better Stefanos, the third best player on clay twice plus Nadal and Dimitrov - all of them early. Only in 2023 he had a clear opening but Cerundolo was certainly among the top twenty clay players in this stretch and his forehand was on fire.

 

[dking68]

Thinking about it more I'm shifting towards your view. Not that unlikely.

I have to say the Foro Italico has been almost cursed. He faced a better Stefanos, the third best player on clay twice plus Nadal and Dimitrov. Only in 2023 he had a clear opening but Cerundolo was certainly among the top twenty clay players in this stretch and his forehand was on fire.

He’ll be #2 at USO i think as well

 

[Rovesciarete]

He’ll be #2 at USO i think as well

Less likely but let us keep this the clay thread

Here we have the raw Elo numbers for Clay. Less value or predictive power but helps to mark down the better dirtballers. Never would I put Stefanos above Nole...

Rank​	Player​	Age​	Elo​	​	HardRaw​	ClayRaw​	GrassRaw​	​	hElo​	cElo​	gElo​	​	Peak Match​	Peak Age​	Peak Elo​
3​	Carlos Alcaraz​	20.5​	2148.8​	​	1983.1​	2039.0​	1909.3​	​	2065.9​	2093.9​	2029.0​	​	2023 Canada R16​	20.2​	2239.7​
9​	Stefanos Tsitsipas​	25.2​	1973.9​	​	1879.1​	2005.1​	1650.8​	​	1926.5​	1989.5​	1812.4​	​	2021 Roland Garros SF​	22.8​	2133.4​
1​	Novak Djokovic​	36.4​	2226.7​	​	2131.4​	1960.1​	1898.1​	​	2179.1​	2093.4​	2062.4​	​	2016 Miami F​	28.8​	2470.3​
16​	Casper Ruud​	24.8​	1895.1​	​	1724.1​	1940.5​	1412.8​	​	1809.6​	1917.8​	1653.9​	​	2022 Roland Garros SF​	23.4​	2064.0​
6​	Andrey Rublev​	26.0​	2020.5​	​	1910.5​	1918.9​	1757.6​	​	1965.5​	1969.7​	1889.0​	​	2021 Monte Carlo SF​	23.4​	2106.2​
5​	Alexander Zverev​	26.5​	2024.0​	​	1894.4​	1917.9​	1619.4​	​	1959.2​	1971.0​	1821.7​	​	2022 Atp Cup RR​	24.7​	2161.7​
2​	Jannik Sinner​	22.2​	2196.7​	​	2124.6​	1913.5​	1733.0​	​	2160.7​	2055.1​	1964.9​	​	2023 Davis Cup Finals F​	22.2​	2196.7​
12​	Holger Rune​	20.5​	1936.0​	​	1781.3​	1897.3​	1631.9​	​	1858.6​	1916.6​	1784.0​	​	2023 Roland Garros R16​	20.0​	2070.1​
39​	Cameron Norrie​	28.2​	1814.6​	​	1720.8​	1851.6​	1658.2​	​	1767.7​	1833.1​	1736.4​	​	2022 Cincinnati QF​	26.9​	2018.4​
4​	Daniil Medvedev​	27.7​	2104.4​	​	2026.2​	1850.0​	1751.2​	​	2065.3​	1977.2​	1927.8​	​	2022 Australian Open SF​	25.9​	2191.​

 

[dking68]

Less likely but let us keep this the clay thread

Here we have the raw Elo numbers for Clay. Less value or predictive power but helps to mark down the better dirtballers.

Rank​	Player​	Age​	Elo​	​	HardRaw​	ClayRaw​	GrassRaw​	​	hElo​	cElo​	gElo​	​	Peak Match​	Peak Age​	Peak Elo​
3​	Carlos Alcaraz​	20.5​	2148.8​	​	1983.1​	2039.0​	1909.3​	​	2065.9​	2093.9​	2029.0​	​	2023 Canada R16​	20.2​	2239.7​
9​	Stefanos Tsitsipas​	25.2​	1973.9​	​	1879.1​	2005.1​	1650.8​	​	1926.5​	1989.5​	1812.4​	​	2021 Roland Garros SF​	22.8​	2133.4​
1​	Novak Djokovic​	36.4​	2226.7​	​	2131.4​	1960.1​	1898.1​	​	2179.1​	2093.4​	2062.4​	​	2016 Miami F​	28.8​	2470.3​
16​	Casper Ruud​	24.8​	1895.1​	​	1724.1​	1940.5​	1412.8​	​	1809.6​	1917.8​	1653.9​	​	2022 Roland Garros SF​	23.4​	2064.0​
6​	Andrey Rublev​	26.0​	2020.5​	​	1910.5​	1918.9​	1757.6​	​	1965.5​	1969.7​	1889.0​	​	2021 Monte Carlo SF​	23.4​	2106.2​
5​	Alexander Zverev​	26.5​	2024.0​	​	1894.4​	1917.9​	1619.4​	​	1959.2​	1971.0​	1821.7​	​	2022 Atp Cup RR​	24.7​	2161.7​
2​	Jannik Sinner​	22.2​	2196.7​	​	2124.6​	1913.5​	1733.0​	​	2160.7​	2055.1​	1964.9​	​	2023 Davis Cup Finals F​	22.2​	2196.7​
12​	Holger Rune​	20.5​	1936.0​	​	1781.3​	1897.3​	1631.9​	​	1858.6​	1916.6​	1784.0​	​	2023 Roland Garros R16​	20.0​	2070.1​
39​	Cameron Norrie​	28.2​	1814.6​	​	1720.8​	1851.6​	1658.2​	​	1767.7​	1833.1​	1736.4​	​	2022 Cincinnati QF​	26.9​	2018.4​
4​	Daniil Medvedev​	27.7​	2104.4​	​	2026.2​	1850.0​	1751.2​	​	2065.3​	1977.2​	1927.8​	​	2022 Australian Open SF​	25.9​	2191.​

Do you see him making a clay masters final in 2024?

 

[Rovesciarete]

In short yes. I see him slightly ahead of the pack behind Nole and Carlitos. If he comes goes in as number 4 or 3 and avoids early Nadal, Zverev or Tsitsi, why shouldn't he? The two big ones plus Nadal won't always come into the semifinal if Jannik makes a deep run. Even then he will have a chance.

 

[Rovesciarete]

I know we like to compare big 3 to Sinner but Sinners trajectory is more a step by step instead of an explosion (similar to Roger). He won a masters title this year. I think it’s reasonable seeing him win multiple masters in 2024 (like 3 or so) and an ATP finals title. If he does that next year he would’ve been 1 masters title less than Djokovic at the same age of 23 and I’m also assuming Sinner wins a slam next year. Sinner will catch up to Nole. I don’t think Sinner will be as bad as Nole in 2010. He will make many masters finals and win a few

I don't like to compare youngsters to the greatest. But it is fair to say only Rafa - and Charlie - are far away.

 

[dking68]

In short yes. I see him slightly ahead of the pack behind Nole and Carlitos. If he comes goes in as number 4 or 3 and avoids early Nadal, Zverev or Tsitsi, why shouldn't he? The two big ones plus Nadal won't always come into the semifinal if Jannik makes a deep run. Even then he will have a chance.

You really think Tsitsipas is a problem for Sinner at this stage of his career?

 

[Rovesciarete]

You really think Tsitsipas is a problem for Sinner at this stage of his career?

Sinner will likely have some margin over him but on clay in the thin air of Madrid full of pollen?

 

[dking68]

Sinner will likely have some margin over him but on clay in the thin air of Madrid full of pollen?

True

 

[Rovesciarete]

Maybe it is good to give some more perspective on the raw clay numbers. Notice Cerundolo, Dimitrov and Popyrin. Their ranking might surprise some.

Rank​	Player​	Age​	Elo​	​	HardRaw​	ClayRaw​	GrassRaw​	​	Peak Match​	Peak Age​	Peak Elo​
3​	Carlos Alcaraz​	20.5​	2148.8​	​	1983.1​	2039.0​	1909.3​	​	2023 Canada R16​	20.2​	2239.7​
9​	Stefanos Tsitsipas​	25.2​	1973.9​	​	1879.1​	2005.1​	1650.8​	​	2021 Roland Garros SF​	22.8​	2133.4​
1​	Novak Djokovic​	36.4​	2226.7​	​	2131.4​	1960.1​	1898.1​	​	2016 Miami F​	28.8​	2470.3​
16​	Casper Ruud​	24.8​	1895.1​	​	1724.1​	1940.5​	1412.8​	​	2022 Roland Garros SF​	23.4​	2064.0​
6​	Andrey Rublev​	26.0​	2020.5​	​	1910.5​	1918.9​	1757.6​	​	2021 Monte Carlo SF​	23.4​	2106.2​
5​	Alexander Zverev​	26.5​	2024.0​	​	1894.4​	1917.9​	1619.4​	​	2022 Atp Cup RR​	24.7​	2161.7​
2​	Jannik Sinner​	22.2​	2196.7​	​	2124.6​	1913.5​	1733.0​	​	2023 Davis Cup Finals F​	22.2​	2196.7​
12​	Holger Rune​	20.5​	1936.0​	​	1781.3​	1897.3​	1631.9​	​	2023 Roland Garros R16​	20.0​	2070.1​
39​	Cameron Norrie​	28.2​	1814.6​	​	1720.8​	1851.6​	1658.2​	​	2022 Cincinnati QF​	26.9​	2018.4​
4​	Daniil Medvedev​	27.7​	2104.4​	​	2026.2​	1850.0​	1751.2​	​	2022 Australian Open SF​	25.9​	2191.9​
50​	Lorenzo Musetti​	21.7​	1791.6​	​	1622.9​	1846.0​	1479.4​	​	2022 Paris R16​	20.6​	1925.4​
25​	Francisco Cerundolo​	25.2​	1864.7​	​	1693.4​	1824.7​	1593.2​	​	2023 Wimbledon R128​	24.8​	1938.5​
7​	Grigor Dimitrov​	32.4​	2010.9​	​	1887.3​	1802.7​	1611.6​	​	2014 Canada QF​	23.2​	2090.6​
14​	Matteo Berrettini​	27.3​	1899.7​	​	1693.2​	1801.9​	1822.2​	​	2022 Gstaad SF​	26.2​	2072.6​
20​	Nicolas Jarry​	28.0​	1875.9​	​	1692.4​	1800.3​	1555.1​	​	2023 Basel R32​	28.0​	1893.0​
32​	Borna Coric​	26.7​	1832.4​	​	1766.1​	1789.5​	1520.2​	​	2019 Australian Open R32​	22.1​	1999.2​
75​	Alexei Popyrin​	24.2​	1738.7​	​	1583.7​	1788.8​	1439.5​	​	2021 Madrid R32​	21.7​	1809.8​

 

[Rovesciarete]

While Sinner lost to everyone in 2021 (Djokovic 2007). Medvedev Tsitsipas Djokovic Nadal Zverev, he was 0-5 vs top 5 and 2-8 vs top 10
In 2022 (Djokovic 2008) he again lost 6 out of 7 top 5 matches. And 2 out of 12 top 10 matches, both wins coming vs Alcaraz who was 19 then.
This year until USOpen end, he was respectable 3-4 vs top 5 and 4-5 vs top 10. Only after USOpen he looked better than the competition.

Well put.

Sinner may have resume like Nole by 2010 end at the same age, but he would not be in position to win any slams until now. Slams are not everything, he was unable to win any masters until Rogers cup, had 3 worst masters 1000 finals and got ADM in the 4th one where he finally won.

I am not expecting Sinner to ever be like Djokovic. Djokovic was a phenomenon who was stopped because of Fedal and his own health issues. His tennis was up there among the slam winners of any era. As early as 2007 USOpen commentators stated that there is not much to differentiate between Fed and Nole. This was vs a guy who had won 11 out of last 17 slams. And Djokovic was merely 20 years old.

Sinner missed chance to win a slam when the HC GOAT was banned from entering HC slams. He missed to make a single SF on hc slams until today. His lone slam SF came at Wimbledon where he got very lucky with the draw. We will see how he performs in 2024 in slams in 2024. But he is far behind Murray atm.

Agreed as well...

And we are talking about clay. Let's talk clay. Sinner has played 8 matches vs top 5 on clay, winning only 1 vs Alcaraz in Umag. He has 5 top 10 wins on clay, 2 vs Rublev, 1 vs Zverev, 1 vs Tsitsipas and 1 vs Alcaraz. That's really good. He is beating guys his own gen and guys just few years older already. He is already ahead of Andy Murray on this surface though, Andy didn't have a top 5 win on clay until he was 28 years old. He would also most likely be better than Wawrinka who got his first top 5 clay win after turning 24.

My personal take has been for quite some time that a steely Sinner could be terrible tyrant for almost all of the tour. Others blow hotter but also colder. Maybe less on clay, but still he should leave less and less on the table for weaker players.

I think he would probably be able to accomplish Murray + Wawrinka like career on clay.
So 13 titles.
Extra 9 finals.
1 RG
Extra 2 RG finals
All three masters once

Overall not bad at all on clay.

Maybe a bit more but sounds not too bad.

 

[dking68]

I’ll go with anywhere from 13-16 titles. Djokovic has 19 now and I can’t see Sinner equaling that.

 

[dking68]

@Kralingen 20+? Cap or no cap?

 

[Jonesy]

@Jonesy what are your predictions for Janniks clay results in 2024?

Win Rome, reach semis or QF on the other masters. Reach semis on RG.

 

[Kralingen]

It’s a pity, we have a contingent of data-fluent, savvy, strong analytical types on here, but recently it appears most of them are only interested in proving how Jannik Sinner will be the best. Interesting read, anyways. Thanks OP.

 

[dking68]

It’s a pity, we have a contingent of data-fluent, savvy, strong analytical types on here, but recently it appears most of them are only interested in proving how Jannik Sinner will be the best. Interesting read, anyways. Thanks OP.

You’re capping with 20+ titles for Sinner on clay right? Even I can’t see that

 

[Kralingen]

You’re capping with 20+ titles for Sinner on clay right? Even I can’t see that

He’s only 22 right? 15 more years all he has to do is win 1.2 per year

 

[dking68]

He’s only 22 right? 15 more years all he has to do is win 1.2 per year

Lol I doubt he lasts that long. I think he’ll have a Federer type career on clay

 

[dking68]

He’s only 22 right? 15 more years all he has to do is win 1.2 per year

Well I mean Nole had a Rome title at Sinners age. Nole has 19 titles. Can you see Sinner winning Rome next year?

 

[dking68]

@NeutralFan how will Sinner do on clay?

 

[Rovesciarete]

It’s a pity, we have a contingent of data-fluent, savvy, strong analytical types on here, but recently it appears most of them are only interested in proving how Jannik Sinner will be the best. Interesting read, anyways. Thanks OP.

Well I will just repeat what I wrote...

In short yes. I see him slightly ahead of the pack behind Nole and Carlitos. If he comes goes in as number 4 or 3 and avoids early Nadal, Zverev or Tsitsi, why shouldn't he? The two big ones plus Nadal won't always come into the semifinal if Jannik makes a deep run. Even then he will have a chance.

For me it is quite simple that - health permitting - he has a good chance to win a big title on clay this year. Djokovic and Alcaraz clearly more so and depending on Nadal also Rafa.

 

[dking68]

Well I will just repeat what I wrote...



For me it is quite simple that - health permitting - he has a good chance to win a big title on clay this year. Djokovic and Alcaraz clearly more so and depending on Nadal also Rafa.

Which title you see him have a good chance of winning on clay next year? Rome?

 

[Rovesciarete]

Rome may be more likely because it doesn't come after the Sunshine Double like Monte Carlo and is less prone to upsets than Madrid. RG and the Olympics will be the big targets by the top2 and Nadal. A bit slow and maybe we will have some screwups by the big locals. You will have swarms of VIPs chasing the poor mountain boy.

 

[dking68]

Rome may be more likely because it doesn't come after the Sunshine Double like Monte Carlo and is less prone to upsets than Madrid. RG and the Olympics will be the big targets by the top2 and Nadal. A bit slow and maybe we will have some screwups by the big locals. You will have swarms of VIPs chasing the poor mountain boy.

He did surprisingly well at MC this year. With this much improved Sinner, he surely would’ve won the title this year in this current form. Let’s assume Alcaraz doesn’t play MC and Djokovic loses early again at MC like he has for the past 2 years, then Sinner would be the automatic favorite. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him win MC

 

[Rovesciarete]

He did surprisingly well at MC this year. With this much improved Sinner, he surely would’ve won the title this year in this current form. Let’s assume Alcaraz doesn’t play MC and Djokovic loses early again at MC like he has for the past 2 years, then Sinner would be the automatic favorite. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him win MC

He did better than I hoped. The top4 will likely go deep in the US of A which makes MC always a bit troublesome. The slowest of clays and risk of late matches makes things tougher for Jannik.

 

[dking68]

He did better than I hoped. The top4 will likely go deep in the US of A which makes MC always a bit troublesome. The slowest of clays and risk of late matches makes things tougher for Jannik.

You’re assuming Novak plays Miami/IW? I foresee an early exit for Medvedev at IW

 

[Rovesciarete]

You’re assuming Novak plays Miami/IW? I foresee an early exit for Medvedev at IW

Maybe, Daniil is still a hardcourt specialist though

 

[dking68]

Maybe, Daniil is still a hardcourt specialist though.

Below Sinner now, sadly.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Below Sinner now, sadly.

On IW more so than in Miami, I would guess.

 

[dking68]

On IW more so than in Miami, I would guess.

Sinner has made 2 finals in Miami. If they play each other again in Miami, Danny boy will lose

 

[Kralingen]

Sinner had a real chance at RG 22 if he didn't get hurt vs. Rublev. Certainly showed his level in Umag later that season.

Since then have been largely unimpressed with him on clay. I think 2024 will show us a lot, ultimately.

 

[dking68]

Sinner had a real chance at RG 22 if he didn't get hurt vs. Rublev. Certainly showed his level in Umag later that season.

Since then have been largely unimpressed with him on clay. I think 2024 will show us a lot, ultimately.

The way he was playing he was surely making that Roland Garros final in 2022, injury free.

 

[dking68]

@Kralingen do you see Sinner winning a clay masters in 2024?

 

[Kralingen]

@Kralingen do you see Sinner winning a clay masters in 2024?

Possibly, but I think Alcaraz and Rune have shown more on the surface so far. And obviously Djokovic and Nadal are going to be factors.