Do you think Djokovic can win the Australian Open in his current physical condition?

[alexio]

Nadal is a predator.

 

[Beckerserve]

Depends who is in semi and final should he get past Zverev. He will not beat Nadal in a final no chance as Nadal is the last guy he would want to face with a strain. Medvedev also will be too much one would think. Tsitispas would he a good opponent as he would choke. As would Rublev.
Dimitrov in a semi i think will be problematic. He has played semi finals before and has the experience to take advantage of Djokovic if he is still struggling. While he is mentally fragile i dont think he would choke a semi final like he would a final. Certainly not in an empty stadium.
However Zverev is not a walk over. He actually returns pretty well, and can extend rallies which could wear down Djokovic. He also moves well.
The reality is Djokovic has struggled against Tiafoe Fritz and Raonic none of whom are good at extending rallies.
So being neutral it looks unlikely but that being said Nadal apart the mental fragility if everyone else means he could well win it if Nadal goes out.

 

[Incognito]

Nadal can take this version of Djokovic on hardcourts. And I don't believe Djokovic is injured either (at least not significantly). He's just not playing at his best level. He's doing enough to just survive, and better opponents could have eliminated him by now. That was obvious in the first few rounds. Nadal's confidence against Djokovic will be sky-high after demolishing him in the French Open final. And I'm sure Nadal and Moya have been working on changing tactics specifically to reverse their hardcourt match-up.

Djokovic has often been fortunate to avoid Nadal when he is playing relatively sub-par and Rafa is in good form. If this version of Novak gets to the final and Rafa does as well, I'm taking Rafa in 4. It's about time Rafa got a Novak who wasn't playing lights out tennis on hardcourt.

Rafa doesnt play lights out tennis either at the moment, he’s turned into an error machine.

 

[TennisFan3]

I think Rafa will make it to the final where he will get drubbed like in 19 by Nole. Fog is a thorn in Rafa's flesh but not unbeatable. nadal will easily break tsitsi's resolve with moving him left and right and leaving him dazzled. Med is a bit tricky may go into 5 sets leaving rafa tired for the final. Nole will beat Zverev as Z chokes under pressure and beat Dimitrov easily

Good post.
I really feel that Medvedev should be in the final. He deserves a chance to win a slam. Nadal has had his time in the sun. And we know how the script goes at the AO.

Time to give fresh blood a chance. I think a Novak Medvedev final will be good for tennis as well.

 

[Beckerserve]

Good post. But are you also looking at the path to the final.
Nadal has to beat Fognini and then best the 2 hottest players on tour back to back. Titspas and Medvedev. Do you think Nadal at 34 can physically accomplish that? I doubt it. One five setter, and he won't have much left for the next match.

At Novak and Nadal's age, physical fatigue becomes a real factor. Even Thiem lost to Dimi because he was exhausted from Kygrios match and the Austrian is in his 20s.

Which is why Djokovic may regret another 3hr match today.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Everyone talking about Zverev, Nadal and Medvedev as if he isn't going down to the legend of Karatsev

Karatsev is cool af though. These Russians are really coming to their own now, great to see. Just wish Rublev didn't have that grunt.

 

[TennisFan3]

Which is why Djokovic may regret another 3hr match today.

It was hardly a taxing match.
Did you forget Djokovic has 3 days of rest before the final. An extra day.
Men's SF 1 will be on Thursday and the final on Sunday.

 

[Forehanderer]

This is an excellent post as always.
People forget about AO 2019 when Nadal looked on fire and beat everyone in straights. But then he goes down in straights vs Novak.
Nadal will never beat Novak in a hardcourt slam.
We know before the tournament started that the only guys who could have a chance vs Novak were Thiem and Medvedev.

Well Thiem is out. And I question Medvedev mentality. Everyone expects him to do well, but I expect him to fold in his slam final vs Novak in best of 5.

Exactly. Rafa was on fire giving a beat down on everyone including tsitsipas in the semis who looked dazed at the end of the match. But then in the final, the tables turned and Nole was the one giving the beating. I don't think Rafa can defeat Nole in hard courts unless he comes up with a new way to counter Nole as Roger did against Rafa in 2017. The runner up speech from Rafa in AO19 was cringeworthy. He basically gave excuses about his injury while he beat down everyone on the way to the finals.

 

[Beckerserve]

It was hardly a taxing match.
Did you forget Djokovic has 3 days of rest before the final. An extra day.
Men's SF 1 will be on Thursday and the final on Sunday.

That is 2 days. 3hrs is 3hrs. He had i think 4hrs v Fritz and 3hrs v Tiafoe. If Zverev pushes him again then obviously he is vulnerable in the Semis and final.

 

[Beckerserve]

Exactly. Rafa was on fire giving a beat down on everyone including tsitsipas in the semis who looked dazed at the end of the match. But then in the final, the tables turned and Nole was the one giving the beating. I don't think Rafa can defeat Nole in hard courts unless he comes up with a new way to counter Nole as Roger did against Rafa in 2017. The runner up speech from Rafa in AO19 was cringeworthy. He basically gave excuses about his injury while he beat down everyone on the way to the finals.

Nadal reaching AO 2019 was one of his greatest achievements given 6 weeks earlier he had surgery.

 

[octogon]

Rafa doesnt play lights out tennis either at the moment, he’s turned into an error machine.

Nadal is playing within himself. He hasn't dropped a set so far. He is in good form. Obviously he needs to take it up a level from the Quarters onward, but that's what Nadal does.

 

[ibbi]

Depends. Like, look at today, he was playing a dude who looked completely lost once the ball was in play, and had to take his own medical timeout. It could easily be another USO 2016 scenario for him. If he runs in to good opposition playing well? I don't know that I'd like his chances all that much... Though the chances of that actually happening might not be much greater.

 

[Beckerserve]

Nadal is playing within himself. He hasn't dropped a set so far. He is in good form. Obviously he needs to take it up a level from the Quarters onward, but that's what Nadal does.

The better Nadal plays the more likely Djokovic will pull out of event at SF stage. No way he wants any part of Nadal this year in the final.
Tomorrow is key for Nadal

 

[D.Nalby12]

Zverev will beat him.

 

[Incognito]

Nadal is playing within himself. He hasn't dropped a set so far. He is in good form. Obviously he needs to take it up a level from the Quarters onward, but that's what Nadal does.

Fognini will expose Nadal’s crappy movement, you’ll see. This is not clay where Rafa can just slide to every shot.

 

[Forehanderer]

Nadal reaching AO 2019 was one of his greatest achievements given 6 weeks earlier he had surgery.

I didn't know about that. Was it the knee or abs. Do you have any article on that? I'm only going by appearances. he played well in that AO19 until the final. If I recall correctly, he didn't lose a set in the previous matches.

 

[TheAssassin]

He's got a chance. And if Medvedev doesn't make it to the final, that chance will increase.

 

[vex]

does Street look that dangerous atm?

I'm not sure he's got what it takes to beat an ATG player on the big stage

Welp, if he can’t capitalize in this big match then... yeah, it’ll be hard to see him as a top contender. Maybe he’ll never put it all together

 

[clout]

Tbh I think Novak definitely isn't healthy but he I'm certain he doesn't have a tear (which is good news as those are fatal for an aging athlete like Novak) and hasn't run into an opponent that could take advantage of him not being 100%. Fritz just didn't have the mental and Raonic doesn't have the physical.

The next match against Zverev will be very telling as to whether Novak can win this thing or not

 

[D.Nalby12]

I think both Nadal and Djokovic are going to lose their next match.

 

[clout]

Nadal won't beat Fognini, Titspas, Medvedev and Novak back to back.
That is with one less day of rest in the final.
Even peak Nadal could not do that.
The most likely outcome is a Novak Medvedev final. I'm just hoping that Nadal doesn't exhaust Medvedev in the SF. Since Medvedev will also have one day less rest vs Novak who will have an extra day plus a straight set win over the mug Dimitrov.

Novak vs Medvedev is the final that tennis desperately needs.

2012 Nadal nearly beat peak Berdych, prime Fed and peak Novak three in a row to win in Melbourne and those three are far more difficult than Stefanos, Med and 33 year old Novak who isn't 100%. Also in 2009 when he took down peak Dasco and Fed back-to-back to win - I don't think he can right now at 34 either if these really are his next opponents, but in his prime, he should definitely be able to walk all over this draw.

 

[Turning Pro]

Where's the option for; He's not injured.

 

[Visionary]

Answer: What condition?
Don't see any evidence at all that Djokovic was injured. We can certainly rule out any talk of a tear in his stomach muscles as that would have made it impossible for him to serve properly and we saw no evidence of that in his match with Raonic today.

I just saw Novak played with something on the right side of his belly against Milos. So, I think that is some sort of evidence he is hurt. Yeah, the claim that he has a teared muscle there is probably a publicity stunt and I'd go as far as to suggest that such bad news are good news when it comes to sponsors and organizers seeing the, "so badly", injured competitor refusing to retire the match. To my knowledge, a torn abdominal, or any other, muscle would not allow a tennis player to compete a full match, especially a grand slam one. Seems as if Novak Djokovic has played his fans, sponsors, organizers and his Canadian opponent like a piano, knowing that he'd win for the 12th time against the "duck feet" on the other side of the court.

 

[James P]

Of course he has a chance. I still think he won't but he might have the best chance at making the final from here on out.

 

[Beckerserve]

I didn't know about that. Was it the knee or abs. Do you have any article on that? I'm only going by appearances. he played well in that AO19 until the final. If I recall correctly, he didn't lose a set in the previous matches.

It was his ankle or foot and he had it late October and that AO was January not Feb.
He was never going to beat anyone who could return serve well let alone Djokovic. He had a serve bot draw that helped him as no long rallies.

 

[Sport]

I think both Nadal and Djokovic are going to lose their next match.

 

[UnforcedTerror]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1360956738544021508

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1360956262134013954

 

[zagor]

I think both Nadal and Djokovic are going to lose their next match.

Zverev has a solid chance against Novak but don't see what can Tsits do to hurt Rafa.

 

[mike danny]

2012 Nadal nearly beat peak Berdych, prime Fed and peak Novak three in a row to win in Melbourne and those three are far more difficult than Stefanos, Med and 33 year old Novak who isn't 100%. Also in 2009 when he took down peak Dasco and Fed back-to-back to win - I don't think he can right now at 34 either if these really are his next opponents, but in his prime, he should definitely be able to walk all over this draw.

Not really, no. At that point Rafa had the age advantage over Roger.

 

[Steve0904]

Not really, no. At that point Rafa had the age advantage over Roger.

Age advantage isn't even the point. I wouldn't call anyone over 30 in their absolute prime. Nadal's prime was 08-13 and Djokovic's started in 2011 and ended sometime in 16 or 17. So neither one of those guys were in their prime at 30 either. Fed played great in 2012, but it wasn't close to anything before 2010 and certainly not 04-07.

 

[mike danny]

Age advantage isn't even the point. I wouldn't call anyone over 30 in their absolute prime. Nadal's prime was 08-13 and Djokovic's started in 2011 and ended sometime in 16 or 17. So neither one of those guys were in their prime at 30 either. Fed played great in 2012, but it wasn't close to anything before 2010 and certainly not 04-07.

That is obvious to me, but some disagree, because he reached 6/7 slam semis or something like this...

 

[Steve0904]

That is obvious to me, but some disagree, because he reached 6/7 slam semis or something like this...

Of course some people disagree. Some people will always disagree.

 

[mike danny]

Of course some people disagree. Some people will always disagree.

In this particular instance, it is hilarious. Fed is prime at 30, but Nadal at the same age is a guy who moves worse and is not even close to his younger self.

 

[Sport]

Zverev has a solid chance against Novak but don't see what can Tsits do to hurt Rafa.

He said it before the Fognini-Nadal match. Thus, the "next match" was Fognini-Nadal.

 

[Hitman]

@Monkh

 

[AlexM]

It’s just a show! He is not injured. A big cheap sports patch don’t even require prescription.
yell at receiving end is actually disrupting game.
his forhand only occasionally show fail when his game is under control. Did he mishit at tiebreaker or some critical moment?
I can only see top quality stroke.
djokovic has great skill but lost sportsmanship. He is a evil person now.

It disappoints me that there are people that feel this way on this planet.

 

[Hitman]

@Monkh

I guess we won't be seeing you around for a while again. Peace.