Do you think Djokovic can win the Australian Open in his current physical condition?

[UnforcedTerror]

For me, I don't think so. I watched him against Raonic and he's clearly hampered, not too much but it's obvious. Anyone of Zverev, Dimitrov, Medvedev or Tsitispas can end his misery imo but who knows? Maybe some of his fans are optimistic regardless of anything?

Vote and discuss.

 

[Nadal_Django]

No chance. He is going down against Zverev in 2 days time.

 

[daphne]

LOL

 

[TennisFan3]

Who will beat Novak?
The only person who has a chance is Medvedev.
But I don't know Medvedev has the stamina to beat Rublev, Nadal and Novak back to back. Not the mental strength as well.

Thiem going out is huge for Novak. He will be 100 percent for the final with an extra day of rest vs a tired nervous Medvedev.

Pressure on Nadal to win FO 2021. Otherwise the slam race is over and Novak is the GOAT

 

[xFedal]

Looking unlikely at the moment .

 

[Mivic]

He needs to hope for Nadal in the final assuming he can even make it that far. Don’t see him beating a guy like Medvedev in this state barring a very swift recovery. Like you say it’s pretty obvious that he’s still hampered but Raonic just didn’t have the tools to expose his limitations from the baseline today.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Djokovic isn't too good, the field is too bad to even beat a hampered Djokovic roflmao.

 

[Cortana]

Anyone with competitive sports experience knows that you can still go on despite an injury. It's not black and white like you can play or you totally can't. Sometimes it just makes you 10-20% worse, but that's enough to lose.

 

[StrongRule]

Djokovic isn't too good, the field is too bad to even beat a hampered Djokovic roflmao.

Djokovic is perfectly fine. You can't servebot like this with a tear.

 

[brian anderson]

fake injury man this guy will say or do anything for attention.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Djokovic is perfectly fine. You can't servebot like this with a tear.

It's a side muscle apparently. Affects bending torso to hit FH. Effect is clear, but insignificant against slownic.

 

[Yugram]

His path is over.

 

[John]

For me, I don't think so. I watched him against Raonic and he's clearly hampered, not too much but it's obvious. Anyone of Zverev, Dimitrov, Medvedev or Tsitispas can end his misery imo but who knows? Maybe some of his fans are optimistic regardless of anything?

Vote and discuss.

It’s just a show! He is not injured. A big cheap sports patch don’t even require prescription.
yell at receiving end is actually disrupting game.
his forhand only occasionally show fail when his game is under control. Did he mishit at tiebreaker or some critical moment?
I can only see top quality stroke.
djokovic has great skill but lost sportsmanship. He is a evil person now.

 

[Mkiske]

It is very difficult for him to win this AO. If Djoko does not recover from the physical problem he will be defeated by Zverev.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

I don’t think he’s winning it to be honest. Probably loses to zverev. Djoko doesn’t look close to 100%. He’s did well to reach the quarters.

 

[Forehanderer]

Dude its all a show. Novak is still winning this. He may have injured 2 days ago but its not a tear. Within 2 days of said "tear" he was able to beat Raonic pretty easily. In the end, it seemed like Raonic was the one who had some niggles with his knee

 

[Red Rick]

If Nadal takes out Medvedev.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

It's a side muscle apparently. Affects bending torso to hit FH. Effect is clear, but insignificant against slownic.

Slownich used to be Treetrunknich. Compared to how he was a decade ago, he is now Almostfastnich.

 

[vex]

He needs to be at or close to 100% to beat Z. Looks like he’s at 80-85ish% to my eyes. Z in 4 would be my guess.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

Dude its all a show. Novak is still winning this. He may have injured 2 days ago but its not a tear. Within 2 days of said "tear" he was able to beat Raonic pretty easily. In the end, it seemed like Raonic was the one who had some niggles with his knee

Pretty easily?

Won the 1st in a tie-break, lost the 2nd.

 

[Legend of Borg]

He needs to be at or close to 100% to beat Z. Looks like he’s at 80-85ish% to my eyes. Z in 4 would be my guess.

does Street look that dangerous atm?

I'm not sure he's got what it takes to beat an ATG player on the big stage

 

[UnderratedSlam]

does Street look that dangerous atm?

I'm not sure he's got what it takes to beat an ATG player on the big stage

If Stakhovsky was able to beat Federer at Wimby many years ago...

This is tennis, "impossible is nothing".

 

[Forehanderer]

Pretty easily?

Won the 1st in a tie-break, lost the 2nd.

Ok may not be that easy. But a tiebreak is almost in Novak's favor than Raonic. The second set is where raonic breathed a sigh of relief as Novak was pounding on him throuhgout the match. The last two sets were pretty easy and Novak knew how to beat him having beaten him 11 other times.

 

[Backspin1183]

His fitness was a question mark for me before the Raonic match. I think he's good enough to take the title unless his injury gets worse.

 

[octogon]

Nadal can take this version of Djokovic on hardcourts. And I don't believe Djokovic is injured either (at least not significantly). He's just not playing at his best level. He's doing enough to just survive, and better opponents could have eliminated him by now. That was obvious in the first few rounds. Nadal's confidence against Djokovic will be sky-high after demolishing him in the French Open final. And I'm sure Nadal and Moya have been working on changing tactics specifically to reverse their hardcourt match-up.

Djokovic has often been fortunate to avoid Nadal when he is playing relatively sub-par and Rafa is in good form. If this version of Novak gets to the final and Rafa does as well, I'm taking Rafa in 4. It's about time Rafa got a Novak who wasn't playing lights out tennis on hardcourt.

 

[Graf1stClass]

He played well in the 5th so he can't be that injured.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

Nadal can take this version of Djokovic on hardcourts. And I don't believe Djokovic is injured either (at least not significantly). He's just not playing at his best level. That was obvious in the first few rounds. Nadal's confidence against Djokovic will be sky-high after demolishing him in the French Open final. And I'm sure Nadal and Moya have been working on changing tactics specifically to reverse their hardcourt match-up.

Djokovic has often been fortunate to avoid Nadal when he is playing relatively sub-par and Rafa is in good form. If this version of Novak gets to the final and Rafa does as well, I'm taking Rafa in 4.

That finale won't happen though.

 

[BeatlesFan]

It is very difficult for him to win this AO. If Djoko does not recover from the physical problem he will be defeated by Zverev.

Yes, just liked it was "very difficult" for him to beat Fritz after set 2 and it was going to be "impossible" for him to defeat the Canadian robot.

 

[Jonesy]

We need to have that Djokodal final. Sad that Thiem lost but at least we got Zverev and Med to make it entertaining.

 

[MurraysMetalHip]

Superspreader looking good. May win AO21

 

[UnderratedSlam]

We need to have that Djokodal final.

That's the last thing we need.

What we need is a NextGen or MixedGen finale. We need another USO20.

 

[TennisFan3]

Nadal can take this version of Djokovic on hardcourts. And I don't believe Djokovic is injured either (at least not significantly). He's just not playing at his best level. He's doing enough to just survive. That was obvious in the first few rounds. Nadal's confidence against Djokovic will be sky-high after demolishing him in the French Open final. And I'm sure Nadal and Moya have been working on changing tactics specifically to reverse their hardcourt match-up.

Djokovic has often been fortunate to avoid Nadal when he is playing relatively sub-par and Rafa is in good form. If this version of Novak gets to the final and Rafa does as well, I'm taking Rafa in 4. It's about time Rafa got a Novak who wasn't playing lights out tennis on hardcourt.

Nadal won't beat Fognini, Titspas, Medvedev and Novak back to back.
That is with one less day of rest in the final.
Even peak Nadal could not do that.
The most likely outcome is a Novak Medvedev final. I'm just hoping that Nadal doesn't exhaust Medvedev in the SF. Since Medvedev will also have one day less rest vs Novak who will have an extra day plus a straight set win over the mug Dimitrov.

Novak vs Medvedev is the final that tennis desperately needs.

 

[TennisFan3]

What we need is a NextGen or MixedGen finale. We need another USO20.

Unfortunately that won't happen. Novak at least is booked to the final. Thiem has lost and there is no one to challenge Novak before the final.

 

[Jonesy]

That's the last thing we need.

What we need is a NextGen or MixedGen finale. We need another USO20.

At least we know Nadal and Djoko have the mental to perform great in a slam final, not that mess at USO final last year.

 

[Mainad]

Answer: What condition?
Don't see any evidence at all that Djokovic was injured. We can certainly rule out any talk of a tear in his stomach muscles as that would have made it impossible for him to serve properly and we saw no evidence of that in his match with Raonic today.

He probably just ate too much tofu for his breakfast the other morning.

 

[octogon]

Nadal won't beat Fognini, Titspas, Medvedev and Novak back to back.
That is with one less day of rest in the final.
Even peak Nadal could not do that.
The most likely outcome is a Novak Medvedev final. I'm just hoping that Nadal doesn't exhaust Medvedev in the SF. Since Medvedev will also have one day less rest vs Novak who will have an extra day plus a straight set win over the mug Dimitrov.

Novak vs Medvedev is the final that tennis desperately needs.

Zverev can beat Djokovic playing the way he is now. Now Zverev might mug it up, but he has to know he'll never get a better chance to beat Djokovic in a slam.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

At least we know Nadal and Djoko have the mental to perform great in a slam final, not that mess at USO final last year.

A mess?

5-setter, 0-2 comeback, 5th-set tie-break.

Gimme a mess like that any time over yet another bloody Big 3 finale... Especially another 2019-like blowout.

 

[Jonesy]

A mess?

5-setter, 0-2 comeback, 5th-set tie-break.

Gimme a mess like that any time over yet another bloody Big 3 finale...

That final set looked like both were afraid of winning.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Nadal's confidence against Djokovic will be sky-high after demolishing him in the French Open final.

Nadal's confidence should be impacted by the fact he hasn't beaten Novak off clay since September, 2013, that's approaching 8 years with 0 hardcourt wins. He always beats everyone at RG, but except in 2010 and 2013, the RG trophies haven't translated into mental or physical domination on HC's, especially against Novak. This is Novak's favorite court, he plays better here than anywhere else in the world and it will be a tall order for Nadal to even win a set against him here. That's assuming Nadal makes the final.

 

[TennisFan3]

Zverev can beat Djokovic playing the way he is now. Now Zverev might mug it up, but he has to know he'll never get a better chance to beat Djokovic in a slam.

You are basically hoping against hope. Zverev does not have the game or the mentality to beat Novak in a best of 5. He would find a way to choke even if Novak was on a wheelchair.

Let's be realistic here. The only guy on Novak half with a chance was Thiem. Now that Thiem is out, Novak will almost certainly get to the final.

Now whether it's Nadal or Medvedev Novak faces in the final, we don't know. But I feel that Medvedev would have a better chance vs Novak than Nadal does.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

That final set looked like both were afraid of winning.

It's called drama.

And it's normal for two guys who were/are slamless.

This will change once most of these NextGenners have slam titles. We need to get there quickly, rather than more of these Big 3 blow-outs. The last two Rafa-Novak slam finales were 3-0.

 

[Krish0608]

Don’t know about that. But if he does lose, I’ll bet that he uses the injury excuse and retires mid match.

 

[TennisFan3]

Nadal's confidence should be impacted by the fact he hasn't beaten Novak off clay since September, 2013, that's approaching 8 years with 0 hardcourt wins. He always beats everyone at RG, but except in 2010 and 2013, the RG trophies haven't translated into mental or physical domination on HC's, especially against Novak. This is Novak's favorite court, he plays better here than anywhere else in the world and it will be a tall order for Nadal to even win a set against him here. That's assuming Nadal makes the final.

This is an excellent post as always.
People forget about AO 2019 when Nadal looked on fire and beat everyone in straights. But then he goes down in straights vs Novak.
Nadal will never beat Novak in a hardcourt slam.
We know before the tournament started that the only guys who could have a chance vs Novak were Thiem and Medvedev.

Well Thiem is out. And I question Medvedev mentality. Everyone expects him to do well, but I expect him to fold in his slam final vs Novak in best of 5.

 

[MeatTornado]

Everyone talking about Zverev, Nadal and Medvedev as if he isn't going down to the legend of Karatsev

 

[Poisoned Slice]

I do believe.

 

[octogon]

Nadal's confidence should be impacted by the fact he hasn't beaten Novak off clay since September, 2013, that's approaching 8 years with 0 hardcourt wins. He always beats everyone at RG, but except in 2010 and 2013, the RG trophies haven't translated into mental or physical domination on HC's, especially against Novak. This is Novak's favorite court, he plays better here than anywhere else in the world and it will be a tall order for Nadal to even win a set against him here. That's assuming Nadal makes the final.

Yeah, Nadal isn't like you or me. Or even other players. He's absolutely not thinking I haven't won off-clay against Novak in however long. He's just thinking and working on what he needs to do to get the win. He will also be analysing Novak's current form and thinking that if he does meet him, this will be his best opportunity to beat him on hardcourt in a good while. Nadal is a predator. If he smells weakness, he will take his chance.

The Big 3 are not like other players. They do what they need to to find solutions, no matter how long it takes. Look at Federer reversing his match-up with Nadal after more than a decade. Or finally beating Djokovic at the WTF in 2019 after years of losing to him. If Nadal gets to the Djokovic who has played the first 4 rounds of this tournament, he is beating him. Bank on it.

 

[octogon]

This is an excellent post as always.
People forget about AO 2019 when Nadal looked on fire and beat everyone in straights. But then he goes down in straights vs Novak.
Nadal will never beat Novak in a hardcourt slam.
We know before the tournament started that the only guys who could have a chance vs Novak were Thiem and Medvedev.

Well Thiem is out. And I question Medvedev mentality. Everyone expects him to do well, but I expect him to fold in his slam final vs Novak in best of 5.

2019 Novak at the AO was in great form. 2021 Novak at AO so far is in mediocre form and barely surviving. There is a world of difference.

 

[Forehanderer]

Nadal won't beat Fognini, Titspas, Medvedev and Novak back to back.
That is with one less day of rest in the final.
Even peak Nadal could not do that.
The most likely outcome is a Novak Medvedev final. I'm just hoping that Nadal doesn't exhaust Medvedev in the SF. Since Medvedev will also have one day less rest vs Novak who will have an extra day plus a straight set win over the mug Dimitrov.

Novak vs Medvedev is the final that tennis desperately needs.

I think Rafa will make it to the final where he will get drubbed like in 19 by Nole. Fog is a thorn in Rafa's flesh but not unbeatable. nadal will easily break tsitsi's resolve with moving him left and right and leaving him dazzled. Med is a bit tricky may go into 5 sets leaving rafa tired for the final. Nole will beat Zverev as Z chokes under pressure and beat Dimitrov easily

 

[Hitman]

Yes, of course he can. Even with the physical issue, he is still the favorite to win the title.

He isn't a lock, it will be challenging, but I put him over any player as it stands right now.

 

[TennisFan3]

Yeah, Nadal isn't like you or me. Or even other players. He's absolutely not thinking I haven't won off-clay against Novak in however long. He's just thinking and working on what he needs to do to get the win. He will also be analysing Novel's current form and thinking that if he does meet him, this will be his best opportunity to beat him on hardcourt in a good while. Nadal is a predator. If he smells weakness, he will take his chance.

The Big 3 are not like other players. They do what they need to to find solutions, no matter how long it takes. Look at Federer reversing his match-up with Nadal after more than a decade. Or finally beating Djokovic at the WTF in 2019 after years of losing to him. If Nadal gets to the Djokovic who has played the first 4 rounds of this tournament, he is beating him. Bank on it.

Good post. But are you also looking at the path to the final.
Nadal has to beat Fognini and then best the 2 hottest players on tour back to back. Titspas and Medvedev. Do you think Nadal at 34 can physically accomplish that? I doubt it. One five setter, and he won't have much left for the next match.

At Novak and Nadal's age, physical fatigue becomes a real factor. Even Thiem lost to Dimi because he was exhausted from Kygrios match and the Austrian is in his 20s.