Meles
Bionic Poster
Behind Thiem, but ahead of Zverev, Nadal, and Djokovic.
This is based on stats extrapolation that I do often for younger players switching from hard to clay, but useful for guessing at Federer's potential level
For Fed we're going to have to extrapolate the new backhand plus general decline trend on clay:
Above is our base line. Without the new backhand what would we expect in 2019 after really three years with little or no clay play? Minimum 68% serve points won (but 2015 was 70%
). Return points won probably 37%.
Lets analyze the hard court jump from 2015-2017 jump which is all backhand led.
2015 serverer:
1st Serve Won % 80.5%
2nd Serve Won % 56.1%
1st Srv. Return Won % 34.1%
2nd Srv. Return Won % 50.9%
2017 Federer:
1st Serve Won % 79.2%
2nd Serve Won % 58.9%
1st Srv. Return Won % 32.0%
2nd Srv. Return Won % 51.5%
2019 Federe hard courts:
1st Serve Won % 80.8%
2nd Serve Won % 61.4%
1st Srv. Return Won % 32.1%
2nd Srv. Return Won % 48.9%
So how do we translate this to clay? Looks like little impact overall on first serve recently. 78% first serve points won seems possible on clay, just one percent below the first big Fed serving year on clay in 2009 when he won RG. The progress on 2nd serve on hard courts is just spectacular by Federer from 2015 into 2019. These have been peak numbers. 2015 was one of Fed's best 2nd serve years on clay with the new racket. With the new backhand 2019 likely will exceed his peak which is just stunning. 60% 2nd serve points won would be a goal; beating his best years by 2%.
First return has declined some on hard courts, but maybe on clay it won't be so bad. Probably good for 33% points won which is way down from peak clay years of 37-39%. Courts are fast to start 2019, but the 2nd return numbers still show some of the shakiness from late 2018, so declining slightly too 49%, but no matter as Federe won RG in 2009 with only slightly betterer return numbers.
For 2019 Federer can hit perhaps 70.5-71.5% serve points one; easily a career best on clay. The return could dip to 38%, but enough to break some and Fed may be almost unbreakable on clay. With Nadal and Djoko declined and Thiem the only real obstacle. Fed could win Madrid or Roland Garros. Will be surprised if he's at below 54% points won on clay and career best 55% on the upside. Easily nudges out Zedrot, declined Nadal, and Nole for my 2nd ranked clayerer player in 2019.
This is based on stats extrapolation that I do often for younger players switching from hard to clay, but useful for guessing at Federer's potential level
For Fed we're going to have to extrapolate the new backhand plus general decline trend on clay:
Above is our base line. Without the new backhand what would we expect in 2019 after really three years with little or no clay play? Minimum 68% serve points won (but 2015 was 70%
). Return points won probably 37%.Lets analyze the hard court jump from 2015-2017 jump which is all backhand led.
2015 serverer:
1st Serve Won % 80.5%
2nd Serve Won % 56.1%
1st Srv. Return Won % 34.1%
2nd Srv. Return Won % 50.9%
2017 Federer:
1st Serve Won % 79.2%
2nd Serve Won % 58.9%
1st Srv. Return Won % 32.0%
2nd Srv. Return Won % 51.5%
2019 Federe hard courts:
1st Serve Won % 80.8%
2nd Serve Won % 61.4%
1st Srv. Return Won % 32.1%
2nd Srv. Return Won % 48.9%
So how do we translate this to clay? Looks like little impact overall on first serve recently. 78% first serve points won seems possible on clay, just one percent below the first big Fed serving year on clay in 2009 when he won RG. The progress on 2nd serve on hard courts is just spectacular by Federer from 2015 into 2019. These have been peak numbers. 2015 was one of Fed's best 2nd serve years on clay with the new racket. With the new backhand 2019 likely will exceed his peak which is just stunning. 60% 2nd serve points won would be a goal; beating his best years by 2%.
First return has declined some on hard courts, but maybe on clay it won't be so bad. Probably good for 33% points won which is way down from peak clay years of 37-39%. Courts are fast to start 2019, but the 2nd return numbers still show some of the shakiness from late 2018, so declining slightly too 49%, but no matter as Federe won RG in 2009 with only slightly betterer return numbers.
For 2019 Federer can hit perhaps 70.5-71.5% serve points one; easily a career best on clay. The return could dip to 38%, but enough to break some and Fed may be almost unbreakable on clay.
With Nadal and Djoko declined and Thiem the only real obstacle. Fed could win Madrid or Roland Garros. Will be surprised if he's at below 54% points won on clay and career best 55% on the upside. Easily nudges out Zedrot, declined Nadal, and Nole for my 2nd ranked clayerer player in 2019.
