More likely (or less unlikely) to complete the double career Slam: Nadal or Djokovic?

[helterskelter]

With another chance eluding Nadal, it looks to me like neither will manage it. But which is less unlikely?

One argument for Nadal: he faces no obstacle at the Australian Open as large as the biggest obstacle Djokovic faces at Roland Garros.

One argument for Djokovic: he'll just have turned 33 when he next gets a chance at Roland Garros, while Nadal will be more than 34 and a half when he next gets a chance at the Australian Open.

Vote for Federer if you prefer, but so far as I can see, his chances of winning Roland Garros again are extremely minimal at best.

 

[roysid]

Of course Djokovic.
- At Australia, Nadal can be defeated by so many players. With every passing year, his chance decreases.
- At French, Djokovic needs one good year where he can face a not so peak Nadal and that's it. He is one year younger btw.

 

[wang07]

Djokovic.

There are like 6-7 players who can beat Nadal at AO, even if he's playing well. On the other hand IMO, a well playing Djokovic could only lose to Thiem or Nadal at RG in the next 2-3 years. Once Nadal goes out early, Djokovic immediately becomes the co-favourite next to Thiem there. That being said, Djokovic winning RG once again is pretty unlikely, for Nadal to add a second AO title the chances are marginal, and if Federer somehow won another RG it would be the greatest miracle in tennis history(literally impossible).

 

[BeatlesFan]

I don’t think either ever does it, only Rocket has managed it in the last 80 years. Djoker obviously has the better shot, but he’ll be 33 when the FO is next played and isn’t getting any younger himself.

 

[StrongRule]

I don’t think either ever does it, only Rocket has managed it in the last 80 years. Djoker obviously has the better shot, but he’ll be 33 when the FO is next played and isn’t getting any younger himself.

And so far he didn't show any signs of decline.

 

[gameovais]

Djokovic has the bnetter chance until Nadal lifts the French Open in 4 months. Then Nadal will have the best chance till he loses in R4 of next year's AO. Rinse and repeat.

 

[StrongRule]

The difference is that in AO nobody is helping Nadal. On the other hand in RG they do everything to help Djokovic. They built a roof now. So Djokovic is probably going to win it this year.

 

[helterskelter]

Of course Djokovic.
- At Australia, Nadal can be defeated by so many players. With every passing year, his chance decreases.
- At French, Djokovic needs one good year where he can face a not so peak Nadal and that's it. He is one year younger btw.

One year younger, but the next RG is eight months sooner than the next AO, so his age as of his next chance is more like 18 months younger than Nadal's as of his next chance.

I'm not so sure it's Djokovic, though. I agree both are unlikely. But Nadal is so formidable an obstacle at RG, whereas Djokovic in Australia is a very formidable but not quite as unbeatable option. It's also true that Thiem might be more of an obstacle at RG than anyone bar Djokovic in Australia. Overall, I do go with Djokovic, but only just.

 

[helterskelter]

And so far he didn't show any signs of decline.

He showed some signs of it last year, especially in minor events.

 

[StrongRule]

He showed some signs of it last year, especially on clay.

What? He won Madrid, reached Rome final, reached RG semifinal and barely lost. By his standards it is an almost perfect clay season.

 

[helterskelter]

What? He won Madrid, reached Rome final, reached RG semifinal and barely lost. By his standards it is an almost perfect clay season.

Thanks for the reminder. Sorry, I had meant to say, "especially during the spring and more generally in lower-level events." Mind you, he has room for improvement this spring. If he goes deep in IW and Miami and wins one of them, he will be very well placed to make a run at the #1 rankings record, especially if he wins Australia.

By the way, please note on the roof at RG that it might not make a difference. It depends on the weather.

 

[Mainad]

At this stage, Djokovic is more likely to achieve it as he is just that little bit younger and a whole lot fitter than Nadal and therefore has a bit more time to make another move on Roland Garros.

Interestingly enough, Thiem is the only other current player to stop Djokovic at RG and Nadal at the AO.

 

[Musterrific]

Djokovic.

There are like 6-7 players who can beat Nadal at AO, even if he's playing well. On the other hand IMO, a well playing Djokovic could only lose to Thiem or Nadal at RG in the next 2-3 years. Once Nadal goes out early, Djokovic immediately becomes the co-favourite next to Thiem there. That being said, Djokovic winning RG once again is pretty unlikely, for Nadal to add a second AO title the chances are marginal, and if Federer somehow won another RG it would be the greatest miracle in tennis history(literally impossible).

Federer has been stopped from winning a second French Open on 6 different occasions by the clay GOAT, including in the semis last year after not playing on the surface for 3 years, so to claim it's "literally impossible" for him is hyperbole at its worst.

 

[danglarND2010]

Both are extremely unlikely to happen.

 

[AceSalvo]

Djoko.

Just needs another crap year from Next Gen and Nadal injured at the same time. Very possible.