The Big 3 at and after age 30: Revisited

Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
It's been a minute since I've looked at a longevity comparison involving all the Big 3 after they turned 30. Since then, Djokovic has put together an impressive season for his age, capping it off with a victory at the ATP Finals, so I feel it's worth taking another look at all three players and how they stack up to each other at Slam level.

Because measuring from the exact date each player turned 30 is a very messy comparison, I'll merely start from the seasons in which they turned 30. 2011 for Federer, 2016 for Nadal, 2017 for Djokovic. This allows us to more easily compare one Slam performance to another performance at that same Slam. This should be obvious, given that this is a multi-year comparison, but I'll be examining the level of play here. I will also only be looking at the Slams and the YEC because digging into the Masters would take even more time, and the Olympics can't fairly be used in this discussion because it happens once every four years so we don't have samples from all three at the same age there (for instance, Fed played in the 2012 Olympics at age 31, but Nadal and Djokovic never played the Olympics at age 31 because they were not held in 2017 or 2018).

(Also, if one of these players skipped the Slam in question, they will automatically be ranked dead last. If they played and got injured, they may also be dead last unless I deem them to have put up a better fight before the injury than one or both of the other players.)

2011 vs. 2016 vs. 2017:
AO: Federer
RG: Federer
W: Federer
USO: Federer
YEC: Federer

Explanation: This should not be surprising, since Fed did well at all four Slams and he swept the indoor season in 2011, while Nadal and Djokovic were in injury and form-related slumps.

2012 vs. 2017 vs. 2018:
AO: Federer
RG: Nadal
W: Federer
USO: Djokovic
YEC: Federer

Explanation: This is definitely a lot closer because now Nadal and Djokovic are very much in form (though Novak has to wait until about halfway through the season). I personally would take 2012 Fed over 2017 Nadal at the AO. The 2017 match was a fine display of tennis but it very much lacked the shotmaking (except the fifth set from Fed) and the physicality of the 2012 SF, an underrated match imo. The 2012 edition of the AO was a very stacked tournament and Fed would be a fairly strong winner by level in most other eras, but here there were two better contenders.

I would also contend that he was better than 2018 Djokovic at Wimbledon. Novak was good too, and I believe he would also win the 2012 tournament in Fed's place, but 2012 was probably the last time Fed played his traditional grass court game before making changes in 2013/2014 due to a decline in agility and it was a very strong showing on the serve as well as on the baseline - his forehand especially was still one of the best on the tour even then. Just a level above, imo, though Djokovic returned quite well in 2018 so he'd have his chances. I don't think the remaining picks are too controversial.

This specific comparison probably features the highest aggregate level of the three players. In future years, you might find that some of them are in form but others aren't, but all three of the Big 3 were definitely in form during the seasons in which they turned 31 (with the caveat that it was only half a season for Djokovic).

2013 vs. 2018 vs. 2019:
AO: Djokovic
RG: Nadal
W: Nadal
USO: Nadal
YEC: Federer

Explanation: Fed is mostly out of the picture due to this being his slump year (he had it later than Nadal and Djokovic) so this is really a conversation about the other two. I think Nadal sweeps most of this, honestly, but I've never been super high on 2019 Djokovic in the first place. Three of these shouldn't be too controversial but two might be.

Wimbledon is the big one. Obviously, Nadal did lose to Djokovic in 2018 so my picking him here over 2019 Djokovic might raise some alarm, but I think it's abundantly clear that Djokovic was better in 2018 than in 2019. He both served and returned better in 2018, and his baseline game was far less erratic in that semifinal than in the 2019 final. I think this decline from Djokovic in all departments is enough for me to rate Nadal higher.

As for the YEC... none of the three had exceptional performances (Nadal didn't even play IIRC) but I thought 2013 Fed's RR performance was overall stronger than 2019 Djokovic's, mainly because that RR defeat to Fed in 2019 was just not a good match from Djokovic, however beautifully Fed served that day.

(And of course, all three were injured at the US Open so any victory here is gonna be a hollow one but Nadal made it through more and better opponents before succumbing so I had to go with him.)

2014 vs. 2019 vs. 2020:
AO: Djokovic
RG: Nadal
W: Federer (*)
USO: Nadal
YEC: Federer

Explanation: Also a fairly close one. Djokovic of course gets the AO and Nadal RG, pretty simple.

I would definitely favor 2014 Fed over 2019 Nadal at Wimbledon but there's an asterisk there because Djokovic never actually had the opportunity to play in 2020 due to the tournament's cancellation... thus, we have no samples of Djokovic's level. However, I think 2014 Fed was certainly stronger than 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023 Djokovic at Wimbledon (2022 being the closest call due to Djokovic's strong returning in the final), and I have no reason to believe that 2020 Djokovic's performance would have been an outlier compared to those years, so I still pick Fed here, though not without the inclusion of an asterisk.

Djokovic getting DQ'd in the US Open also throws a wrench in things because he would have had a very good shot at winning the tournament if that hadn't happened, but Nadal still did play decently in 2019 so that might be a tricky obstacle to overcome. I went with Nadal as the safe pick but there's certainly room for debate here. Fed did make it deep too but I didn't like his performance against Cilic. I did like his performance in the YEC, though. The RR was smooth sailing and he did defeat Stan in the semis. The walkover is certainly a stain, but I doubt the other two were in good enough shape to reach the final in the first place. In general, I think Nadal has the upper hand this year, though not quite to the same extent as 2018.

Continued in the next post.
 
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Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
Continued:

2015 vs. 2020 vs. 2021:
AO: Djokovic
RG: Nadal
W: Federer
USO: Federer
YEC: Federer

Explanation: Looks like a clean victory for Fed here but this is one instance where this representation is a little misleading. I would certainly take 2015 Fed over 2021 Djokovic at Wimbledon and the US Open, but those margins are narrower compared to Djokovic's lead over Federer in the first two Slams, although Nadal still trumps Novak at RG.

Wimbledon might be a controversial pick but you have to realize that 2015 Djokovic is basically Djokovic's top level at Wimbledon. Serve was great, baseline game was super sharp, and this was one of his personal best returning performances imo. Still, Fed ran it basically dead even for two sets and a half on the back of some good serving (though not as good as 2014) and some very clutch play at times. I think he should definitely be favored in level over 2021 Djokovic who played a bad first set and needed more time to get into his groove... and not to mention he also returned worse than in 2015, which will hurt him. The only argument I could see for him here is one based on stamina. Fed did start to run out of gas in the tail end of the third set while 2021 Djokovic had no such issue, but, again, Fed was keeping it level with peak grass Djokovic for a good long time so it's understandable.

I'd also give the YEC to Fed. Certainly a forgettable performance in the final but I don't think Fed would have lost to someone on the caliber of 2021 Zverev.
Nadal at this point is starting to fade away from the other two.

2016 vs. 2021 vs. 2022:
AO: Federer (*)
RG: Nadal
W: Djokovic
USO: ---
YEC: Djokovic

Explanation: This year is pretty ugly because I wouldn't exactly classify any of these guys as being particularly in form, plus all three skipped the US Open at the same point in their careers so we have no data there.

The whole deportgate thing obviously looms over the AO result but in the absence of data from Djokovic, I'd have to go with Federer. Fed didn't play a very good match in the 2016 semifinal, but Djokovic basically hit god mode there so he was made to look a lot worse than he actually was. We should be praising him for taking a set honestly. I would personally take this over losing to Tsitsipas in the QF.

RG will be a closer contest because 2021 Nadal and 2022 Djokovic weren't really in form. I do rate the 2021 match higher though, so that has a hand in my choice of Nadal here.

Wimbledon is definitely Djokovic. Fed led an inspired charge to the semifinals... but he was injured. Djokovic was in iffy shape going into the final but I thought the final itself was actually a good performance; there's not as many holes to poke here as you would with 2019 or 2021, plus the returning was legitimately impressive by a general standard, not just for someone in his mid-30's.

Djokovic also gets the YEC since the other two are AWOL.

2017 vs. 2022 vs. 2023:
AO: Federer
RG: Nadal / Djokovic
W: Federer
USO: Djokovic
YEC: Djokovic

Explanation: Like with Djokovic's 2021 season, a little deceptive because on aggregate, I think Djokovic had the best season, but this doesn't materialize in the Slams because Fed has enough to edge him at the AO and Wimbledon (while doing little at RG and W) while Nadal can stop him at RG (while doing little damage at AO, W, or USO).

There are a couple of controversial picks here. The first is the AO. Personally, I think 2017 Fed just hit higher highs in overall level (particularly in the fifth set of the final), took down much stronger opponents, and wasn't carrying an injury. For these reasons, I pick him here over 2023 Djokovic. And sorry guys but I just do not rate AO 2022 Nadal at all. I think he could do some damage to Fed or Djokovic but honestly that was one of the lowest level Slam victories I think I've ever seen.

The second one is RG. I think we can agree that Nadal's level at RG 2022 was the lowest of all the RGs he's won. Personally, I would back 2021 Djokovic in a potential encounter. However, I also don't rate 2023 Djokovic as high as 2021 Djokovic. He had a few struggles along the way and barring Alcaraz's cramping I believe that would have been a difficult (though winnable) match for him, in the same way that Nadal would have been troubled even more if Zverev hadn't had that freak injury. However, I think Nadal would have performed better in more favorable conditions because they were pretty terrible in that semifinal. When it came down to it, both of them curbstomped Ruud in the final. I have a preference for Nadal's overall performance in the tournament and I do believe he had the tougher field, so I went with him, but you could very easily go with Djokovic here which is why I've also included him. I think the other picks are pretty open-and-shut.

So this is where we finally run out of data for Djokovic and will have to wait before we compare his 2024 season with Fed's 2018 season and with Nadal's 2023 season.

Full Summary:
Fed builds up a very, very strong lead because of his great 2011 and 2012 seasons. These two blow every other season from all three players out of the water (the only one that would even come close in my estimate would be 2018 Djokovic, but that was for half a season). Certainly, he's the best of the three in their early 30's, and he continues to be very much relevant in their mid-30's despite a slump in 2013 and part of 2014.

Djokovic has a horror start to his 30's but later sees improvement relative to Nadal and Federer, and I'd say he edges them in their mid-30's. Still, there are a couple of fluctuations - 2019, 2020, and 2022 weren't quite as strong as 2018, 2021, and 2023 from a Slam perspective - that hold him back. Another thing that holds him back are interesting circumstances like the Wimbledon cancellation of 2020, throatgate, deportgate, and the US Open COVID ban in 2022. As I mentioned above, I don't think Djokovic's participation in Wimbledon 2020 would change things, but for the other three Slams mentioned, it probably could. Plus, as I've hinted at times in this post... Djokovic often made a strong second place even in Slams where he was not quite the #1 of the three. 2018 and 2019 Wimbledon, as well as 2021 RG and 2023 AO, are certainly among those. As such, I think his final tally definitely underestimates his longevity.

Nadal, like Fed, does very well in his early 30's (2017-2019 carries hard) but fades away in his mid-30's, although his pure superiority at RG is enough to keep him afloat and continue to add to his tally even then.

In total, here is the list of how many individual Slams I believe each of the three was the best at during their 30's:

Federer: 12
Djokovic: 6
Nadal: 9

Here's the YEC:
Federer: 5
Djokovic: 2
Nadal: 0 (some things remain constant...)


Again, that's my subjective take. There's definitely wiggle room, especially regarding a few of the picks I made in the lists above.
 
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Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
Federer hypothetical GOAT (some things remain constant).
Perhaps it's semantics, but this isn't technically a hypothetical argument. It's a comparison between different players.

If I say player A performed better than player B, that's a comparison which you can make by looking at the stats, matches, etc.

If I say player A would beat player B, that's now a hypothetical. Certainly, the outcome of this hypothetical can be based on the above comparison but they're still different things. Plus, hypothetical matches have to account for things like matchups which aren't really relevant in an overall comparison. Like I can say that Safin was a far better player than Santoro but I would be far more hesitant to back him in a hypothetical match because, in his own words, being asked to play Santoro was like being asked to die.
 

Pheasant

Legend
Nice breakdown, OP. I have a few disagreements. But overall, I like it.

2012 vs 2017 vs 2018
AO is very controversial, most likely due to matchup issues. Could 2012 Fed with small racket take out 2017 Nadal? That’s a tough call there. I can see a case for either one. But I'd lean Nadal here.

2013 vs 2018 vs 2019
WTF: I’d give the edge to Djoker over Fed. Fed’s 2013 season was horrendous by his standards. And he was gutted by Nadal, who was destroyed by Djoker. Fed in 2019 played quite well to take out Djoker in the RR.

2017 vs 2022 vs 2023
AO: I have a tough time picking a rusty Fed here over Djoker. The one thing that Fed had going for him is that he had 0 expecations that year, which is why he all of the sudden became a stone-cold killer in 5th sets. At one point, he went 6-0 in the 5th set, after being barely above .500 for his career in the metric. But I’d still pick Djoker here. This would be close. But I’m giving the edge to Djoker here. This would be a great match to see..
 

fedfan24

Hall of Fame
So...hypothetical Federer was better than Djokovic in double the amount of Slams, and about one third more Slams than Nadal yet he ended up with only 4 while Djokovic has 12 and Nadal has 8? Lol, have to love ttw.
30s Federer lost 10 slam matches to younger prime/peak djokovic and Nadal. Lower their levels considerably and the tables are turned.
 
Hypothetical Federer GOAT thread strikes again!



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Backspin1183

Talk Tennis Guru
So...hypothetical Federer was better than Djokovic in double the amount of Slams, and about one third more Slams than Nadal yet he ended up with only 4 while Djokovic has 12 and Nadal has 8? Lol, have to love ttw.
Hypothetical Federer is still the best though.
 

Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
Nice breakdown, OP. I have a few disagreements. But overall, I like it.

2012 vs 2017 vs 2018
AO is very controversial, most likely due to matchup issues. Could 2012 Fed with small racket take out 2017 Nadal? That’s a tough call there. I can see a case for either one. But I'd lean Nadal here.

2013 vs 2018 vs 2019
WTF: I’d give the edge to Djoker over Fed. Fed’s 2013 season was horrendous by his standards. And he was gutted by Nadal, who was destroyed by Djoker. Fed in 2019 played quite well to take out Djoker in the RR.

2017 vs 2022 vs 2023
AO: I have a tough time picking a rusty Fed here over Djoker. The one thing that Fed had going for him is that he had 0 expecations that year, which is why he all of the sudden became a stone-cold killer in 5th sets. At one point, he went 6-0 in the 5th set, after being barely above .500 for his career in the metric. But I’d still pick Djoker here. This would be close. But I’m giving the edge to Djoker here. This would be a great match to see..
Thanks for the one worthwhile response to this thread. Some good arguments here.

1. 2012 vs. 2017 definitely depends more on personal preference than some of these other picks and as I said Nadal played well overall.

I think the surface should also be considered. While neither condition was very favorable for either player, I think Fed was made to look worse on the slow, gritty 2012 surface than Nadal was affected by the faster 2017 surface.

2. Fair take. Actually, I might change my mind on this one. Maybe I’m getting too hung up on that 2019 RR with Fed, although I can’t say I found Djokovic very impressive in that one.

3. I think I still disagree. Fed was certainly up and down but Djokovic had his own struggles on the way to the title and of course he didn’t face Stan or Nadal. I think Djokovic would find Nadal an easier opponent than Fed did but I think he’d have it even tougher with Stan. Overall, I just think Djokovic would be made to look more erratic than he actually was in the face of stronger competition, and he was also carrying an injury which definitely showed at times. Plus… it really is hard to look past Fed’s fifth set performance. In general, I think we’d be inclined to give Djokovic the advantage in a fifth set in these matches but AO 2017 Fed feels like he’d be an exception based on how spectacular that final one against Nadal was.
 

wang07

Semi-Pro
Obviously Federer was at least as good (perhaps better) as Djokovic until 36 overall, difference being that Fed had to compete under normal circumstances (meaning he was being chased by younger ATGs at their peak), while Djokovic ends up winning the "who is still in his 30s when you only have to beat Ruud, Kyrgios and Tsitsipas in finals" contest, by default, as he is the youngest of the Big3. What a storyline, what an absolute letdown of a conclusion to what used to be a fascinating race between 3 giants of the sport.

This is also why you don't really see any substance beyond elo ratings and the same list of records endlessly spammed btw, the fact that it ends this way, somewhere has to be awkward even for the Djokovic apologists.
 

The Sinner

Semi-Pro
Nice breakdown, OP. I have a few disagreements. But overall, I like it.

2012 vs 2017 vs 2018
AO is very controversial, most likely due to matchup issues. Could 2012 Fed with small racket take out 2017 Nadal? That’s a tough call there. I can see a case for either one. But I'd lean Nadal here.

2013 vs 2018 vs 2019
WTF: I’d give the edge to Djoker over Fed. Fed’s 2013 season was horrendous by his standards. And he was gutted by Nadal, who was destroyed by Djoker. Fed in 2019 played quite well to take out Djoker in the RR.

2017 vs 2022 vs 2023
AO: I have a tough time picking a rusty Fed here over Djoker. The one thing that Fed had going for him is that he had 0 expecations that year, which is why he all of the sudden became a stone-cold killer in 5th sets. At one point, he went 6-0 in the 5th set, after being barely above .500 for his career in the metric. But I’d still pick Djoker here. This would be close. But I’m giving the edge to Djoker here. This would be a great match to see..
Pretty much agree with this. AO 2012 Fed vs 2017 Nadal is a tricky one.
 

Pheasant

Legend
Thanks for the one worthwhile response to this thread. Some good arguments here.

1. 2012 vs. 2017 definitely depends more on personal preference than some of these other picks and as I said Nadal played well overall.

I think the surface should also be considered. While neither condition was very favorable for either player, I think Fed was made to look worse on the slow, gritty 2012 surface than Nadal was affected by the faster 2017 surface.

2. Fair take. Actually, I might change my mind on this one. Maybe I’m getting too hung up on that 2019 RR with Fed, although I can’t say I found Djokovic very impressive in that one.

3. I think I still disagree. Fed was certainly up and down but Djokovic had his own struggles on the way to the title and of course he didn’t face Stan or Nadal. I think Djokovic would find Nadal an easier opponent than Fed did but I think he’d have it even tougher with Stan. Overall, I just think Djokovic would be made to look more erratic than he actually was in the face of stronger competition, and he was also carrying an injury which definitely showed at times. Plus… it really is hard to look past Fed’s fifth set performance. In general, I think we’d be inclined to give Djokovic the advantage in a fifth set in these matches but AO 2017 Fed feels like he’d be an exception based on how spectacular that final is
Good points on the surface. That 2012 AO surface was so damn slow. This might come down to which surface that they play on.
 

jl809

Hall of Fame
Whats the summary of all that? I have a low attention span so what the bottom line
Fed better than Djoker in his 30s relative to the number of slams they actually won IRL. Just got unlucky facing Nadal and Djoker repeatedly in slams whereas the latter 2 faced a lot more mugs
 

Hypo Crisis

Professional
This is a fantastic analysis which will sadly fall on deaf ears as the Djoker fanbase is by far the least capable of having an actual mature discussion on here beyond BUT LOOK AT STATS THO
Sadly you don't comprehend what it means to have 4 year head start in a void, instead of battling your way through most acomplished players ever and media darlings.
Just look at all those players who couldn't do it that you call mugs. Even now, if aomeone is unable to beat Djokovic, he is a mug :laughing: :laughing:
 
Obviously Federer was at least as good (perhaps better) as Djokovic until 36 overall, difference being that Fed had to compete under normal circumstances (meaning he was being chased by younger ATGs at their peak), while Djokovic ends up winning the "who is still in his 30s when you only have to beat Ruud, Kyrgios and Tsitsipas in finals" contest, by default, as he is the youngest of the Big3. What a storyline, what an absolute letdown of a conclusion to what used to be a fascinating race between 3 giants of the sport.

This is also why you don't really see any substance beyond elo ratings and the same list of records endlessly spammed btw, the fact that it ends this way, somewhere has to be awkward even for the Djokovic apologists.
Djokovic in his 30s has won all the majors at least twice again or more.

Fed has been nowhere close to another french open or us open in his 30s bar against Djokovic in 2015 at us open. You can’t just use the djokodal excuse because Fed was losing to an array of players outside them too. He’s just been inferior to Djokovic in his 30s and that’s it.

Even in his 30s at Australia and Wimbledon he’s won less than Djokovic. It wasn’t just Djokovic that stopped him especially at Australia.
 

RS

Bionic Poster
The problem is Djokovic is still in his 30s for another 3.5 years and will likely add several more barring something massive. Then we will get even more of these numbers vs level of play vs competition perks.
 

Biotic

Hall of Fame
Some takes:

1. Going by you subjective analysis Federer get the bulk of his advantage in 2011-2016-2017. True Federer was much better, but Djokovic was injured for most of that season and won nothing. You can't count this one against him.

2. Not sure what the results would be in a one-on-one matchup. Without any further analysis it seems Nadal eats more into Djoko's numbers than Federer's, especially at RG.

3. I think there are few inconsistencies here, like giving 2014 Federer YEC over 2020 Djoko (Federer didn't even show up for the final, Djoko lost the most important match to the best player around IMO - Thiem), while also giving him 2012 YEC over 2018 (here Federer lost to the best player while Djoko played at his very best but "didn't show up" for the finals).

4. I don't agree with other stuff too, but I don't feel like going into details.

5. Federer gets a few walkover wins, others don't, or not as much

6. Will be interesting to see what Djoko has to offer going forward, other than 2018 AO and 2019 W, Federer didn't do much obviously
 
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RS

Bionic Poster
Another thing is some people believe up till 2019 Fed and Djokovic benefited of the so called inflation era similarly.

So it might be better to focus on 14-17 Fed vs 20-23 Djokovic. This isn't a mentioned point though and it's a shorter time frame.
 
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SonnyT

Legend
This is a fantastic analysis which will sadly fall on deaf ears as the Djoker fanbase is by far the least capable of having an actual mature discussion on here beyond BUT LOOK AT STATS THO
Federer always wins hypotheticals. I don't see him winning against mature Djokovic and Nadal, except Nadal when he was older.

When Federer was in top 3, invariably he lost to Djokovic, after '12. Look at Djoko-Alcaraz rivalry, everyone wins some, loses some.
 
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RS

Bionic Poster
We could agree the gap is less than the 8 slams suggests. Hard to claim more than that though.
 

Biotic

Hall of Fame
We could agree the gap is less than the 8 slams suggests. Hard to claim more than that though.
Hard? It's easy lol. I claim that the gap between Federer and Nadal is not 4 in favor of Nadal, but actually 2 in favor of Federer. (y)
 

RelentlessAttack

Hall of Fame
On one hand, Federer winning all hypotheticals has become a ridiculous meme.

On the other hand, Djokovic fans pretending it’s normal that 2018-23 is his most successful period of slam wins despite COVID and has nothing to do with completion is also ridiculous
 

RS

Bionic Poster
Hard? It's easy lol. I claim that the gap between Federer and Nadal is not 4 in favor of Nadal, but actually 2 in favor of Federer. (y)
On one hand, Federer winning all hypotheticals has become a ridiculous meme.

On the other hand, Djokovic fans pretending it’s normal that 2018-23 is his most successful period of slam wins despite COVID and has nothing to do with completion is also ridiculous
I was trying to meet in the middle like this post Biotic no but you went the other end with Fedal :p
 
On one hand, Federer winning all hypotheticals has become a ridiculous meme.

On the other hand, Djokovic fans pretending it’s normal that 2018-23 is his most successful period of slam wins despite COVID and has nothing to do with completion is also ridiculous
What we argue is that Federer had worse losses compared to Djokovic in his 30s.

Even taking achievements out of it the guy was struggling to an array of players in his 30s and not just djokodal.

This is why federer can’t even be in the ball park for level of play either when compared to Djokovic not just records.
 

RS

Bionic Poster
I want to make this about cross sports again. Just need a few the usual suspects.
 
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