Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
It's been a minute since I've looked at a longevity comparison involving all the Big 3 after they turned 30. Since then, Djokovic has put together an impressive season for his age, capping it off with a victory at the ATP Finals, so I feel it's worth taking another look at all three players and how they stack up to each other at Slam level.
Because measuring from the exact date each player turned 30 is a very messy comparison, I'll merely start from the seasons in which they turned 30. 2011 for Federer, 2016 for Nadal, 2017 for Djokovic. This allows us to more easily compare one Slam performance to another performance at that same Slam. This should be obvious, given that this is a multi-year comparison, but I'll be examining the level of play here. I will also only be looking at the Slams and the YEC because digging into the Masters would take even more time, and the Olympics can't fairly be used in this discussion because it happens once every four years so we don't have samples from all three at the same age there (for instance, Fed played in the 2012 Olympics at age 31, but Nadal and Djokovic never played the Olympics at age 31 because they were not held in 2017 or 2018).
(Also, if one of these players skipped the Slam in question, they will automatically be ranked dead last. If they played and got injured, they may also be dead last unless I deem them to have put up a better fight before the injury than one or both of the other players.)
2011 vs. 2016 vs. 2017:
AO: Federer
RG: Federer
W: Federer
USO: Federer
YEC: Federer
Explanation: This should not be surprising, since Fed did well at all four Slams and he swept the indoor season in 2011, while Nadal and Djokovic were in injury and form-related slumps.
2012 vs. 2017 vs. 2018:
AO: Federer
RG: Nadal
W: Federer
USO: Djokovic
YEC: Federer
Explanation: This is definitely a lot closer because now Nadal and Djokovic are very much in form (though Novak has to wait until about halfway through the season). I personally would take 2012 Fed over 2017 Nadal at the AO. The 2017 match was a fine display of tennis but it very much lacked the shotmaking (except the fifth set from Fed) and the physicality of the 2012 SF, an underrated match imo. The 2012 edition of the AO was a very stacked tournament and Fed would be a fairly strong winner by level in most other eras, but here there were two better contenders.
I would also contend that he was better than 2018 Djokovic at Wimbledon. Novak was good too, and I believe he would also win the 2012 tournament in Fed's place, but 2012 was probably the last time Fed played his traditional grass court game before making changes in 2013/2014 due to a decline in agility and it was a very strong showing on the serve as well as on the baseline - his forehand especially was still one of the best on the tour even then. Just a level above, imo, though Djokovic returned quite well in 2018 so he'd have his chances. I don't think the remaining picks are too controversial.
This specific comparison probably features the highest aggregate level of the three players. In future years, you might find that some of them are in form but others aren't, but all three of the Big 3 were definitely in form during the seasons in which they turned 31 (with the caveat that it was only half a season for Djokovic).
2013 vs. 2018 vs. 2019:
AO: Djokovic
RG: Nadal
W: Nadal
USO: Nadal
YEC: Federer
Explanation: Fed is mostly out of the picture due to this being his slump year (he had it later than Nadal and Djokovic) so this is really a conversation about the other two. I think Nadal sweeps most of this, honestly, but I've never been super high on 2019 Djokovic in the first place. Three of these shouldn't be too controversial but two might be.
Wimbledon is the big one. Obviously, Nadal did lose to Djokovic in 2018 so my picking him here over 2019 Djokovic might raise some alarm, but I think it's abundantly clear that Djokovic was better in 2018 than in 2019. He both served and returned better in 2018, and his baseline game was far less erratic in that semifinal than in the 2019 final. I think this decline from Djokovic in all departments is enough for me to rate Nadal higher.
As for the YEC... none of the three had exceptional performances (Nadal didn't even play IIRC) but I thought 2013 Fed's RR performance was overall stronger than 2019 Djokovic's, mainly because that RR defeat to Fed in 2019 was just not a good match from Djokovic, however beautifully Fed served that day.
(And of course, all three were injured at the US Open so any victory here is gonna be a hollow one but Nadal made it through more and better opponents before succumbing so I had to go with him.)
2014 vs. 2019 vs. 2020:
AO: Djokovic
RG: Nadal
W: Federer (*)
USO: Nadal
YEC: Federer
Explanation: Also a fairly close one. Djokovic of course gets the AO and Nadal RG, pretty simple.
I would definitely favor 2014 Fed over 2019 Nadal at Wimbledon but there's an asterisk there because Djokovic never actually had the opportunity to play in 2020 due to the tournament's cancellation... thus, we have no samples of Djokovic's level. However, I think 2014 Fed was certainly stronger than 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023 Djokovic at Wimbledon (2022 being the closest call due to Djokovic's strong returning in the final), and I have no reason to believe that 2020 Djokovic's performance would have been an outlier compared to those years, so I still pick Fed here, though not without the inclusion of an asterisk.
Djokovic getting DQ'd in the US Open also throws a wrench in things because he would have had a very good shot at winning the tournament if that hadn't happened, but Nadal still did play decently in 2019 so that might be a tricky obstacle to overcome. I went with Nadal as the safe pick but there's certainly room for debate here. Fed did make it deep too but I didn't like his performance against Cilic. I did like his performance in the YEC, though. The RR was smooth sailing and he did defeat Stan in the semis. The walkover is certainly a stain, but I doubt the other two were in good enough shape to reach the final in the first place. In general, I think Nadal has the upper hand this year, though not quite to the same extent as 2018.
Continued in the next post.
Because measuring from the exact date each player turned 30 is a very messy comparison, I'll merely start from the seasons in which they turned 30. 2011 for Federer, 2016 for Nadal, 2017 for Djokovic. This allows us to more easily compare one Slam performance to another performance at that same Slam. This should be obvious, given that this is a multi-year comparison, but I'll be examining the level of play here. I will also only be looking at the Slams and the YEC because digging into the Masters would take even more time, and the Olympics can't fairly be used in this discussion because it happens once every four years so we don't have samples from all three at the same age there (for instance, Fed played in the 2012 Olympics at age 31, but Nadal and Djokovic never played the Olympics at age 31 because they were not held in 2017 or 2018).
(Also, if one of these players skipped the Slam in question, they will automatically be ranked dead last. If they played and got injured, they may also be dead last unless I deem them to have put up a better fight before the injury than one or both of the other players.)
2011 vs. 2016 vs. 2017:
AO: Federer
RG: Federer
W: Federer
USO: Federer
YEC: Federer
Explanation: This should not be surprising, since Fed did well at all four Slams and he swept the indoor season in 2011, while Nadal and Djokovic were in injury and form-related slumps.
2012 vs. 2017 vs. 2018:
AO: Federer
RG: Nadal
W: Federer
USO: Djokovic
YEC: Federer
Explanation: This is definitely a lot closer because now Nadal and Djokovic are very much in form (though Novak has to wait until about halfway through the season). I personally would take 2012 Fed over 2017 Nadal at the AO. The 2017 match was a fine display of tennis but it very much lacked the shotmaking (except the fifth set from Fed) and the physicality of the 2012 SF, an underrated match imo. The 2012 edition of the AO was a very stacked tournament and Fed would be a fairly strong winner by level in most other eras, but here there were two better contenders.
I would also contend that he was better than 2018 Djokovic at Wimbledon. Novak was good too, and I believe he would also win the 2012 tournament in Fed's place, but 2012 was probably the last time Fed played his traditional grass court game before making changes in 2013/2014 due to a decline in agility and it was a very strong showing on the serve as well as on the baseline - his forehand especially was still one of the best on the tour even then. Just a level above, imo, though Djokovic returned quite well in 2018 so he'd have his chances. I don't think the remaining picks are too controversial.
This specific comparison probably features the highest aggregate level of the three players. In future years, you might find that some of them are in form but others aren't, but all three of the Big 3 were definitely in form during the seasons in which they turned 31 (with the caveat that it was only half a season for Djokovic).
2013 vs. 2018 vs. 2019:
AO: Djokovic
RG: Nadal
W: Nadal
USO: Nadal
YEC: Federer
Explanation: Fed is mostly out of the picture due to this being his slump year (he had it later than Nadal and Djokovic) so this is really a conversation about the other two. I think Nadal sweeps most of this, honestly, but I've never been super high on 2019 Djokovic in the first place. Three of these shouldn't be too controversial but two might be.
Wimbledon is the big one. Obviously, Nadal did lose to Djokovic in 2018 so my picking him here over 2019 Djokovic might raise some alarm, but I think it's abundantly clear that Djokovic was better in 2018 than in 2019. He both served and returned better in 2018, and his baseline game was far less erratic in that semifinal than in the 2019 final. I think this decline from Djokovic in all departments is enough for me to rate Nadal higher.
As for the YEC... none of the three had exceptional performances (Nadal didn't even play IIRC) but I thought 2013 Fed's RR performance was overall stronger than 2019 Djokovic's, mainly because that RR defeat to Fed in 2019 was just not a good match from Djokovic, however beautifully Fed served that day.
(And of course, all three were injured at the US Open so any victory here is gonna be a hollow one but Nadal made it through more and better opponents before succumbing so I had to go with him.)
2014 vs. 2019 vs. 2020:
AO: Djokovic
RG: Nadal
W: Federer (*)
USO: Nadal
YEC: Federer
Explanation: Also a fairly close one. Djokovic of course gets the AO and Nadal RG, pretty simple.
I would definitely favor 2014 Fed over 2019 Nadal at Wimbledon but there's an asterisk there because Djokovic never actually had the opportunity to play in 2020 due to the tournament's cancellation... thus, we have no samples of Djokovic's level. However, I think 2014 Fed was certainly stronger than 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023 Djokovic at Wimbledon (2022 being the closest call due to Djokovic's strong returning in the final), and I have no reason to believe that 2020 Djokovic's performance would have been an outlier compared to those years, so I still pick Fed here, though not without the inclusion of an asterisk.
Djokovic getting DQ'd in the US Open also throws a wrench in things because he would have had a very good shot at winning the tournament if that hadn't happened, but Nadal still did play decently in 2019 so that might be a tricky obstacle to overcome. I went with Nadal as the safe pick but there's certainly room for debate here. Fed did make it deep too but I didn't like his performance against Cilic. I did like his performance in the YEC, though. The RR was smooth sailing and he did defeat Stan in the semis. The walkover is certainly a stain, but I doubt the other two were in good enough shape to reach the final in the first place. In general, I think Nadal has the upper hand this year, though not quite to the same extent as 2018.
Continued in the next post.
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