Who can beat Roger Federer?

[FitzRoy]

I don't know exactly what forum to post this in because it's a rant, but also contains a recent match result. I guess someone can move it if it's in the wrong spot.

Coming into this final match I thought Roddick would be able to take it, or at least come close, due to his mental state. This was his chance to beat Roger. His confidence was sky-high and Federer had played 4 matches in 5 days. Roddick's serve was on and he had Jimmy Connors in his corner breathing fresh life. It's a hard court that plays very fast, and the US Open tennis balls bounce low and fast. This is the one Grand Slam where Roddick could hope to pummel serves and forehands through the court, fight hard, and finally beat the guy. I don't know if he'll ever be close again.

If Roddick had managed to pull this one off, it may have changed things. Federer might have lost a small amount of that aura...but probably not. That's pure speculation, of course. Now the state of the game goes back to where it was before the tournament, where there are, in my mind, only three players with the combination of game and mentality that can defeat Roger in a Grand Slam: Safin, Nalbandian, and Nadal.

The reasons for Nadal are obvious. His game matches up well, Federer doesn't see many good lefties, and the young Spaniard's mentality allows him to compete against anyone, legend or no. Any time he can get to a final against Federer, it's going to be a real match, and that includes all 4 Grand Slams.

Nalbandian has that same bulldog mentality when he plays Roger. His intensity and focus increase when Roger does amazing things. I was hoping to see that from Roddick today, but I think Roddick respects him too much. You can tell that when Nalbandian comes out to play Federer, he'd have no qualms if it were a bare-knuckles boxing match instead of tennis. Nalbandian grinds, keeps grinding, hits the ball so solid, and believes he can win. And let's be honest - all of that stuff has caused Nalbandian to get into Roger's head a little bit. I think if Roddick had that edge, he wouldn't have quickly gone down a break in the 4th set. His level of serving and play wouldn't have fallen off. Then, who knows what happens with the rest of the match?

Safin is the most amusing case because he's the only guy who has absolutely no concern for how his opponent is playing tennis. In Safin's head, everything that happens on a tennis court is always up to him. Due to his immense talent, he might actually be right about that. That costs him against some of the lesser players on tour, though. He loses points to good shots, or to his own errors, and gets down on himself. If you run down several great shots in a row against him, he's liable to have a lapse and dump one. His concentration fades and he loses more points. But it's exactly this outlook that allowed him to overcome Federer's best at the Aussie Open in '04. Federer's amazing tennis doesn't overwhelm Safin, because as far as Safin is concerned, he can hit anyone off the court. I can assure you, Safin is not a guy Federer wants to go up against at the US or Australian, especially in the second week (which means Safin is on a roll and has had time to get his confidence together).

Federer now has nine majors and is doing things no one has ever done before. He's won 3 of the 4 majors two years running. Connors' record of consecutive weeks at #1 is sure to fall. The question I find myself asking now is, will any of the three guys I named be able to beat Roger in any of the majors next year? Is there anyone else that could really do it?

 

[Raistlin]

I think there will always be a little upsets here an there for federer. But to answer your questions I don't think ANY player presently can seriously give federer a run for his money. Someone would say Nadal.....but the fact is that Rafa didn't even make the finals of the last 2 tournament wins for fed (including this U.S open) and its only a matter of time till Federer wins the French. No...I don't see anything changing anytime soon.

 

[Jedi Knight]

Short of injury, he's basically unstoppable. The French is the last piece of the puzzle and the way he's playing on clay, you gotta figure he'll win it eventually.

 

[Watcher]

Someone would say Nadal.....but the fact is that Rafa didn't even make the finals of the last 2 tournament wins for fed (including this U.S open)

Holy bejeezus, he didn't make the final of the last WHOLE TWO tournaments that Fed won! He must not be able to challenge Fed at all!

No, do you want to know what the real fact to look at is? The Nadal has a 6-2 lead over Federer, that's what. Nadal is at the very minimum a spirited challenge to Federer in any match, and I don't see how anyone can dispute this, especially looking at the scores of the two matches Fed has won against Nadal.

 

[CR Jason]

roger federer is good. but then i'm not sure. but maybe Nadal will beat him in a couple of years!

 

[BiGGieStuFF]

Nadal appears to have the best chance so far. He's healthy and has proven to beat him time and time again. Unfortunate he didn't make it to the final of the last 3 tournaments he's played though. Hope he gets it worked out because we need that feeling of unpredictability in the finals to make it even MORE exciting.

Safin seems to be coming back but we've all been burned by that before but he's still young so you can never count him out.

 

[FitzRoy]

Holy bejeezus, he didn't make the final of the last WHOLE TWO tournaments that Fed won! He must not be able to challenge Fed at all!

No, do you want to know what the real fact to look at is? The Nadal has a 6-2 lead over Federer, that's what. Nadal is at the very minimum a spirited challenge to Federer in any match, and I don't see how anyone can dispute this, especially looking at the scores of the two matches Fed has won against Nadal.

I basically agree with this. As for the minor upsets mentioned above, yeah, I can see that, but I'm talking about Grand Slam tournaments here. Even the minor upsets are becoming rarer, and as for Grand Slams, he's only lost 4 matches total in the last 3 years - Nadal in this year's French final and the '05 semi, Safin in the Aussie Open '04 Semi, and the steamroll by Guga in the first week of the French in '04. Guga is a 3-time French champion, so there's not much shame in that, plus Federer wasn't nearly so dominant then. The fact that he's only had four losses in the last twelve majors is a massive feat. The French will clearly be his most difficult to obtain, especially with guys like Gasquet coming into their own. Do any of you think someone like a Gasquet or Murray could take Fed out in a Slam in '07?

 

[The tennis guy]

I think you over-rate Nalbandian a little bit. Except one win last year at the masters when Federer was injured for 6 weeks, didn't practice until two days before the tournament, Nalbandian had lost to Federer all of his matches in the last 3 years.

Nadal obviously has the best chance on clay, and can be tough for Federer on slow-down version of rebound ace. Other than that, you just have to admit, Federer is going to come out on top when he is on top of his game for another couple of years. The upset will come if Federer is not 100%, or off his game a lot.

 

[FitzRoy]

I think you over-rate Nalbandian a little bit. Except one win last year at the masters when Federer was injured for 6 weeks, didn't practice until two days before the tournament, Nalbandian had lost to Federer all of his matches in the last 3 years.

Nadal obviously has the best chance on clay, and can be tough for Federer on slow-down version of rebound ace. Other than that, you just have to admit, Federer is going to come out on top when he is on top of his game for another couple of years. The upset will come if Federer is not 100%, or off his game a lot.

I don't think I'm over-rating Nalbandian. I just think he could have an honest shot at beating Federer in a Grand Slam. If Federer plays his absolute best in every set, then yeah, Nalbandian is almost sure to lose. But Fed doesn't always do that. Their matches at Rome and Roland Garos this year were close and tight. I think what you're saying is that physically Nalbandian isn't at that level, and you're probably right. But his mentality and toughness more than make up for it. Look at it this way: if Nalbandian beat Federer, say at the Australian Open or the French, would you be shocked by it? I don't think it's all that far-fetched.

 

[Grimjack]

I don't think I'm over-rating Nalbandian. I just think he could have an honest shot at beating Federer in a Grand Slam. If Federer plays his absolute best in every set, then yeah, Nalbandian is almost sure to lose. But Fed doesn't always do that. Their matches at Rome and Roland Garos this year were close and tight. I think what you're saying is that physically Nalbandian isn't at that level, and you're probably right. But his mentality and toughness more than make up for it. Look at it this way: if Nalbandian beat Federer, say at the Australian Open or the French, would you be shocked by it? I don't think it's all that far-fetched.

I don't think you're overrating Nalbandian either. There is a VERY small group of players who are talented enough that they can conceivably beat Federer on any surface -- even if Fed isn't having an off day -- if they're playing their absolute best. I think Nalbandian is in that group. Safin clearly is... Actually, I think that's the whole group. Two.

There's another VERY small group who can beat Federer -- even if Fed isn't having an off day -- on particular surfaces, if they're playing their absolute best. Nadal on slow courts (and please don't embarrass yourself thinking Nadal belongs in the first group, Rafa fans; the guy can't do dick on fast courts and never has), and Roddick on fast ones, despite the loss today.

Then, of course, any solid pro can beat Fed if he has an off day, which he just doesn't very often (but it does happen).

So that's who can beat him, and when. It ain't much for the field to build hope on, but it's something.

 

[Zaragoza]

Who can beat Federer?

1st Nadal
2nd Nadal
3rd others

 

[tennis_hand]

Nadal, Nalbadian, Safin has a better chance.

You must be a fighter to beat him, by pushing him and outlasting him. Once you see him relaxed in the game, you have no way of beating him.

but please don't mention Andy Murray. :mrgreen:

 

[FitzRoy]

but please don't mention Andy Murray. :mrgreen:

Yeah, Murray hasn't really impressed me game-wise. He does seem to have a knack for winning matches, though. I know the match against Federer was far from pretty, and very very far from Federer's best, but he's still the only guy not named Nadal to have a win on record against Federer this year. I don't want this to turn into a "did Federer tank" discussion, because I think that's a stupid discussion. The guy has way, way, way too much pride to lose a match on purpose.

What about Baghdatis? I've seen a lot of people on here say that his game is overrated, but he reminds me of Nalbandian in a lot of ways, and certainly has more pop on the first serve.

 

[SteveI]

Hummmmmm...

Hello All,

No one on this planet or plane of existance. He will break the record for most weeks as #1 in the next few months. He locked up a place in the year's end Masters Cup after the Aussie Open, he has locked up #1 for the year.. and also broke the record for the highest point total the ATP ranking system. Guy does not even sweat playing a Grand Slam final??? If Rafa did not come along he would have 11 majors and the Grand Slam this year. There is him.. and everyone else. Best there ever was.. we are watching tennis history.

Have a great day... enjoy the tennis!

Steve

 

[BreakPoint]

.....But it's exactly this outlook that allowed him to overcome Federer's best at the Aussie Open in '04. Federer's amazing tennis doesn't overwhelm Safin, because as far as Safin is concerned, he can hit anyone off the court.

Actually, that was the '05 Semi at the Aus Open, the year Safin won the whole thing.

 

[Mick]

only father time has a chance of beating or slowing Roger Federer down, but that won't happen for another five or six years.

 

[BreakPoint]

I think Nadal is the ONLY one that stands a GOOD chance against federer...hopefully federer will be killed within the next couple of years..allowing Nadal to dominate the game.

Some of these Nadal fans are just psycho, not to mention delusional.

Federer has more natural talent in his left pinky toe than Nadal has in his whole body. Nadal has to use his muscles and his speed because he has no talent.

 

[dysonlu]

Sure Nadal can beat Federer. However, if Federer's game remains at a level we've seen him play these last couple of years, NO ONE can overtake him in the rankings, not even Nadal.

I would even venture to say that Federer will figure out Nadal sometime soon and there would be no more rivalry.

 

[sliceroni]

Safin, Nadal, Nalbanian are the players that stand out in my mind to beat Fed, but again you have to put intangibles in there. Such as Fed has to have an off/normal day and those mentioned have to be playing out of their minds. Been a while since Safin played, in 05. Fed has improved a lot (especially his backhand) since then.

 

[FitzRoy]

Actually, that was the '05 Semi at the Aus Open, the year Safin won the whole thing.

BP - I stand corrected. I should've checked the facts, for some reason I remembered it being the other way.

 

[nopiforyou]

The old contenders that beat the rookie Federer were a large variety including, Hewitt, Roddick (once, but hey it was in his best year), Henmen, etc.

These days the only one who can probably beat Federer in a non grass or fast court (even this is questionable) is Nadal. I'm not saying Nadal is an automatic win, but a 6-2 victory does make him look like Federer's worst nightmare.

A possible set of people in the future that may have a chance against Federer is
Andy Murray, Roddick (the future remember?), Gasquet (once he improves his fitness, forehand, and mental game).

What about Ljubicic. I remember him giving Federer three tiebreaks last year at some point or something.

 

[tlm]

To rastlin,so nadal didnt make the last 2 finals,how many finals did fed make at 20 years old?Some would say nadal imagine that, nadal has beat him 6 out of 8 times,2 out of 3 on hardcourts.

All the rest of the chokers have had a lot more chances with basically 0 results,let me see roddick is 1 out of 13 +on+on.Nadal is the only one who can challenge fed period!!!

 

[jbdbackfan]

Federer next Sampras

Federer I believe will beat Sampras on the all time Grand Slam wins. The fact is Federer is hot now, but like all greats eventually things slow down. There is alot of young talent that eventually will beat Federer. Roddick probably could of won today had we won 3rd set. But Roger is unique, he presents a great mix unlike anything else and for now he is unstopable. But as for the French Open, I don't see Federer winning it, he may be like Sampras and not have what it takes to win the clay.

 

[BreakPoint]

BP - I stand corrected. I should've checked the facts, for some reason I remembered it being the other way.

That's understandable since the AO is at the beginning of the year. Also, Federer did play Safin at the '04 AO but that was in the final, which of course, Federer won.

 

[theace21]

As long as he continues to train and improve, he is going to have success. Now if he decides to get into designing clothes, modeling, having a reality show - his game is going to suffer. If the desire stays, we will have an opportunity to say we watched the greatest player of all time...

 

[slice bh compliment]

I think I can beat him. I visualized holding serve against him during my siesta today. It is as clear as day.

First serve, slice BH approach, then an angled volley. 15 love.
Then a second serve ace by the T. 30 love.
Then I got into a rally with him and he spanked a FH winner. The bastidge.
Then I served him into the body and got a shank. He's a little annoyed at this point.
Then I made another first serve and three big forehands that got him off the court, then a came in and mis-hit a volley. He totally couldn't read that. Then I made a crack about how Swiss banks held a lot of N a z i money and made money off the whole neutral thing.
Well, twelve games like that and two hot breakers and I think I'm in business.

Then, naturally I woke up.

 

[Banger]

I think that Nadal and Safin are the only players who can beat Federer in a Slam. Of course we all know that Nadal is a bad matchup and is still in Federers head and that gives him an edge but only at the French. Even though Nadal is winning head to head, I dont think Nadal could ever beat Fed at any other Slam.

Safin only has a shot at the AO and USO. He has the game to beat Fed even if Fed is playing his best, but the question is which Safin will show up and will he still be in a Slam and not get knocked out before they met.

 

[dysonlu]

To rastlin,so nadal didnt make the last 2 finals,how many finals did fed make at 20 years old?

Here we go with the age argument again. Each athlete blooms at a different stage in their career. One guy here put it best; it goes something like this: Chang won a slam at a younger age than Sampras, does that mean he's better?

 

[BreakPoint]

Now if he decides to get into designing clothes, modeling, having a reality show - his game is going to suffer.

Or if he gains 100lbs., grows a huge butt, and wears fancy diamond earrings and a catsuit on the court. LOL

 

[tarkowski]

As much success as Rafa has had against Fed in the past, I agree with many that just don't see him being much of a threat in the years to come. I think much of his later wins have been a pysch block for Fed, and with the 06' Wimby win in hand, will be much less of a factor in future events. I applaud Nadal's tenacity, but I just don't think it's enough. Plus, I think Nadal's go-for-broke-on-every-shot style of game will be hard to sustain over time. There's only so much pounding the body can take.

I like Safin and Nalbandian. I also like Roddick's chances if he continues along his current path. Gasquet has some potential as well.

It seems the one thing in common between non-Nadal competitors who have beaten Fed in the past year is a strong, versatile backhand. Interesting also that this is Nadal's forehand side.

I think the stats show that Fed has an excellent return game. But unlike Agassi, Fed relies a lot more on blocking the serve back, then let his forehand do the talking. I think this strategy works because most players, including those with strong serves, wait at the baseline trying to let their forehands do the talking as well - and Fed's is just more of a weapon. It also works on S&V ala Henman because he's just not powerful/deceptive enough to not get passed while coming in on serve. I don't think it would work too well with a top-form Sampras. You just don't get away with a blocked-back serve.

Taking all of these observations to a conclusion: the one player that can serve big, come in behind it with good touch and volley, who also posseses a powerful and versatile backhand... is Safin. He is my top pick - but then, the intangibles.... which Safin shows up.

Should Roddick continue his improvement at net - he'll be broken less. Should he continue his offensive return-of-serve and backhand - he'll break more. Roddick would be my second pick, perhaps at the US Open next year should he improve as much then as he has in the last 6 months.

 

[tennis_hand]

Actually, that was the '05 Semi at the Aus Open, the year Safin won the whole thing.

afterwards he's gone totally for that year.

 

[FitzRoy]

Should Roddick continue his improvement at net - he'll be broken less. Should he continue his offensive return-of-serve and backhand - he'll break more. Roddick would be my second pick, perhaps at the US Open next year should he improve as much then as he has in the last 6 months.

This is possible, but, as you said, it requires Roddick to improve that much. I don't really think it's going to happen, but I hope I'm wrong about that. I'd like to see Roddick win the US next year, beating Fed in the process, but to me this final seemed like a great chance for him. I don't know if he'll ever have the belief now, and that's as important as any skill/strategy improvements.

 

[Shabazza]

afterwards he's gone totally for that year.

yeah - knee surgery and reha does it for you, you know.

 

[Goose]

Thank-god, someone remembered Ljubicic.
In 5 of their last 7 meetings Ljubicic has taken Federer to 3 sets. (In best of 3 set matches)
And in their only best of 5 set match, east set went to Federer 7-6(5) 7-6(4) 7-6(6). So Ljubicic was well in each of those sets, he was not totally outclassed in any way shape or form.

I think on his day, when Ljubicic decides he's going to go out and play he does have a chance against Federer.
I was so disappointed with Ljubicic's quality of play at this years US though. Really annoyed me to see one of my favourite players playing so poorly.

 

[Buuurnz]

Nadal can beat Fed on Hard and Clay-Court but on the other hand noone else pretty much can haha! In addition to that Nadal can lose to alot of players on the tour on Hardcourt we saw it at the US open just now!So I dont see anything happening right there!
I think Roger will take 2 Grand Slam titles each year for the next 3 years(on an avergae). Don't y'all think the same?

 

[Shabazza]

Thank-god, someone remembered Ljubicic.
In 5 of their last 7 meetings Ljubicic has taken Federer to 3 sets. (In best of 3 set matches)
And in their only best of 5 set match, east set went to Federer 7-6(5) 7-6(4) 7-6(6). So Ljubicic was well in each of those sets, he was not totally outclassed in any way shape or form.

I think on his day, when Ljubicic decides he's going to go out and play he does have a chance against Federer.
I was so disappointed with Ljubicic's quality of play at this years US though. Really annoyed me to see one of my favourite players playing so poorly.

Well he didn't have that great of a summer HC-season to begin with, so I didn't expect him to do much at the USO!
BUT I do expect him to be a real thread again during the indoor season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Ljubicic vs Federer final in Paris for example.

 

[The Grand Slam]

Anyone playing better than him.

It's not rocket science.

 

[0d1n]

I can, I'm 1.83 m, ~78-80 kg's and practiced “karate” for 6 years at national level. I can beat him to a pulp (unless he has his racket with him…). .
Obviously this is against the “karate” philosophy/way of life so he would have to attack me first which he won’t do because he’s a nice guy. Scratch that…I can’t beat him…he’s too nice :mrgreen:

 

[BiGGieStuFF]

I can, I'm 1.83 m, ~78-80 kg's and practiced “karate” for 6 years at national level. I can beat him to a pulp (unless he has his racket with him…). .
Obviously this is against the “karate” philosophy/way of life so he would have to attack me first which he won’t do because he’s a nice guy. Scratch that…I can’t beat him…he’s too nice :mrgreen:

Federer vs Od1n Head to Head

Federer leads 1-0

 

[ppw350Zunit]

nadal and safin.

 

[usopen]

I don't see any big Servers beating Federer. Players who have all round game might be able to do that...

Gasquet, Nalbandian , Baghdatis , Safin at Australian

Nadal or Monfils at French

Rodick at Wimbledon

Rodick or Safin at US Open

 

[Grimjack]

Monfils at French

Seriously: where do you yahoos come from?

 

[FitzRoy]

Seriously: where do you yahoos come from?

Come on, Grim - of course Monfils could take him. Since when does pushing not work against Federer?

 

[tlm]

To dysonlu,it is a simple fact nadal has only been a pro for a couple of years,lets see what he has accomplished by the age of 25.

i could care less about chang,nadal has beat fed 6 out of 8 time at 19 years old.Thats more than roddick, blake, safin,+the rest of the chokers have done in thier careers.

How in the hell do all you fed fans already know that nadal has peaked,it is amazing the way you can predict the future.

 

[Gundam]

Finals played by Federer against any players except Nadal nowaday just make me sad. Because I cannot enjoy them and I really like his style...

I want 20-25 yr old Sampras (I think he would have matched up quite well against Federer. He was a supreme big match player, wasn't he?), Guga with healthy hips, Becker or Safin with cooler head, Edberg with Gonzo's forehand, Lendl with great volleying skills..., JMac with Becker's power, or Male version of Steffi Graf or Monica Seles...

Or, I will have to approach him as if I want an autograph and punch him but well, he seems a decent man and Mirka would be upset. No, I wouldn't be able to do that.

 

[tlm]

Ya gundam,thats back when you had a lot of talent in the mens game,now the only one who can challenge fed is nadal.The rest of the mens field sucks!!!

 

[FitzRoy]

How about we take Nalbandian and give him Roddick's serve? I mean, if Roddick's not going to beat him using it, I'm sure Nalbandian would be happy to.

 

[Gundam]

Ya gundam,thats back when you had a lot of talent in the mens game,now the only one who can challenge fed is nadal.The rest of the mens field sucks!!!

My dream is moving RF through the warmholes of whatever to like around ~ 1990. Actually that's not fair because Roger grew up admiring Sampras which means he had someone he could emulate.

I wish I could make him born in 1969 or 1970 so that he would have played with Sampras, Agassi, Chang, Courier as well as Edberg, Becker, Stich, Petr, and even jMac, Connors... I admire Roger's Playing style but he is just TOO dominating. I agree, I can only watch finals between Roger and Nadal. Otherwise I feel uncomfortable. IT's not that others suck, it's that Federer is too crazily good.

 

[BigServer1]

nadal has beat fed 6 out of 8 time at 19 years old.Thats more than roddick, blake, safin,+the rest of the chokers have done in thier careers.

Henman had a winning record against Fed for a long time...federer JUST this year evened his record against him. Do you think that Henman now has a chance in hell to beat fed? Federer has shown that he learns about his opponents and finds ways to win. Nadal also has the advantage of having 4 of their meetings on clay. If 4 of their meetings were on grass, I am sure that their record would be much different. Don't be suprised if Federer takes a few in a row and makes their head to head a little bit closer.

 

[jmsx521]

Who can beat Roger:

1. Safin, with a new brain-implant.

2. A player who plays very tricky sharp angles that don't kick high like Nadal's, and don't give Fed rhythm... someone who will not play Fed in Fed's zone. Someone who will keep Fed constantly on his toes. For example, when Agassi was playing top-notch tennis, Berasategui beat him on hard courts with extreme angles... they were too sharp to be ran after... Nadal's kick too high, which gives Fed enough time to get to them. If there is a Berasategui, Santoro or Coria-like player loaded with lots of power, good fast legs, lots of confidence and the shots I described, then he can beat Federer.