Who will win Madrid 2012?

[Achilles82]

Here are adventeges and disadvanteges.


Nadal

Advantages:

• King of clay, plays amazing right now, has won 2 tournaments in a row on clay.
• Finally won against Novak in MC, which gave him injection of confidence that he needed, especially against Novak.
• Nadal is playing in his home tournament, and will have far more support then Novak.

Disadvantages:

• Played 2 weeks in a row, 10 matches in 2 weeks. Will have only 1 week of rest.
• Madrid is playing on a little bit higher altitude, so ball travels faster, which is more suitable to Novak's game.
  

Novak

Advantages:

• Before Monte Carlo, won 7 times in a row against Nadal, including 2 times on clay. Some could argue that he only lost MC final because his grandfather died, and couldn't be 100%
• Is current No1, and still in a great form.
• Since he decided to skip Serbia Open, he will have 2 weeks off before Madrid, which is plenty of time to rest.
• Madrid is playing on a little bit higher altitude, so ball travels faster, which is more suitable to Novak's game.

Disadvantages:

• Nadal finally broke the barrier against Novak in MC, and that might shake him a little bit. This means he maybe lost a little bit of his mojo against Nadal, especially since tournament is playing on clay.
• Novak's grandfather died, and he was very close to him. So probably he won't be 100% focused on upcoming tournaments.

Federer
Advantages:

• Is a solid clay court player, and has already won this tournament.
• Had 1 month of rest, and probably out of big three is the most prepared.
• Madrid is the fastest clay court tournament, which will give him little bit advantage.

Disadvantages:

• Clay is his worst surface. Still plays great, but not nearly as good as on HC.
• Horrible record against Nadal, especially on clay.
• Is almost 31. He is not as good as he was 3 or 4 years ago.

 

[tennis_pro]

Nadal, disadvantage: Nadal is playing in his home tournament, and will have far more support then Novak.

Makes sense to me.

 

[Achilles82]

Nadal, disadvantage: Nadal is playing in his home tournament, and will have far more support then Novak.

Makes sense to me.

Thanks, I mixed that up. Fixed it.

 

[monfed]

I think Federer will win Madrid.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Yep - Shows the incredible depth in tennis today.

Lets just fast forward to the final.

 

[Achilles82]

I added Federer. I must admit I completely forgot about him lol .. I remembered at the end when I was adding pool options, and was like "wait a minute, what about Federer?" lol

 

[tennis_pro]

Thanks, I mixed that up. Fixed it.

Also, I think Federer if not rusty has a good shot at the title, the 3rd clay MS is probably his best MS of all 9.

 

[Achilles82]

Also, I think Federer if not rusty has a good shot at the title, the 3rd clay MS is probably his best MS of all 9.

Post before lol

 

[Homeboy Hotel]

Federer is fresh.

 

[Carsomyr]

Dunno. It's a tough call. Nadal has to be the favorite, but his legs aren't getting any younger. Playing this much tennis, even on a forgiving surface like clay, has to wear you down at some point. He looked pretty average against Ferrer, who definitely had some chances to take Nadal out. As for Djokovic, who knows where his head and game are. Federer was playing excellent tennis until Miami, when it looked like he just needed some rest after a great 6-7 month run. Who knows if he'll bring it in Madrid? He is 30, after all.

 

[West Coast Ace]

Djokovic. MC didn't mean much given the passing of his grandfather. He'll be rested (but not too much like Fed, who could get clipped before the SF if he's at all rusty). Final will be a repeat of last yr - Djokovic doing everything just a little better than Nadal.

 

[Clarky21]

Djesus will.

 

[Hood_Man]

Nadal in 10.

 

[Mainad]

Nadal is on a bit of a roll now with his back to back wins in MC and Barcelona, beating Djokovic to boot. I think it's helping him get his old confidence back.
However he is still not playing to his 08-10 standards in my view so, if Djokovic appears in Madrid with all cylinders firing again, it could be a different matter.

Going for a Nadal-Djokovic final again with the edge to Nadal. Not sure what sort of mood Fed will be in though after his long lay-off.

 

[OverratedIvanovic]

2 possible scenarios acc to me
1. Federer beats Nadal at semis and goes onto win against Djokovic in the finals.
2. Federer beats Djokovic in semis but fails to win against Nadal in finals.

 

[timnz]

Evidence

[*]Is almost 31. He is not as good as he was 3 or 4 years ago.
[/LIST]

are you saying that on the basis of evidence, or are you simply saying that at this age he couldnt possibly be at his best? We saw some of federers best clay court tennis at roland garros last year.

 

[Numenor]

Rooting for Djoker to win Madrid, Rome, and RG.

 

[CocaCola]

Only 3 players can win it. Hopefully Djokovic or Federer.

 

[cc0509]

Only 3 players can win it. Hopefully Djokovic or Federer.

I agree Nadal, Djokovic or Federer are the only ones who will possibly win Madrid. Duh.
Not sure which one yet.

 

[veroniquem]

2 possible scenarios acc to me
1. Federer beats Nadal at semis and goes onto win against Djokovic in the finals.

This (back to back win vs Nadal/Djoko) would not happen on hard, much less on clay... The only place I could see it happen is indoor (WTF) and even that would not be a given at the age of 31.

 

[[Z]engin]

Either Djokovic or Fed for me.

I'm curious whether Rafa will be fresh at Madrid, his knee was apparently troubling him, yet he still played Barcelona in this already tough clay season.

 

[El_Djoker]

Nadal the filthy cheat will , pretending he has trouble with his knee as usual,
intimidating his opponents , time wasting, just being a general scumbag and a disgrace to tennis as he always is .

 

[El_Djoker]

Either Djokovic or Fed for me.

I'm curious whether Rafa will be fresh at Madrid, his knee was apparently troubling him, yet he still played Barcelona in this already tough clay season.

Im amazed the amount of people who still believe this tripe...

 

[Achilles82]

are you saying that on the basis of evidence, or are you simply saying that at this age he couldnt possibly be at his best? We saw some of federers best clay court tennis at roland garros last year.

He could be his best, but 5 years ago, he showed his best way more often.

 

[[Z]engin]

Im amazed the amount of people who still believe this tripe...

I never said I believed in it.

He also said the same thing about his knee at AO and then he played the longest match in a GS final.

 

[OverratedIvanovic]

This (back to back win vs Nadal/Djoko) would not happen on hard, much less on clay... The only place I could see it happen is indoor (WTF) and even that would not be a given at the age of 31.

My assumption is based on Djokovic's current form which has not been very good lately. Back to back is still very possible in best of 3. Also Federer matches up great against Djokovic on clay as we saw last year at RG. Moreover its fast clay, so advantage Federer. Madrid is Federer's best chance to win a clay court tourney imo.

 

[El_Djoker]

I never said he believed in it.

He also said the same thing about his knee at AO and then he played the longest match in a GS final.

Exactly cos he's a liar and a cheat, my original post meant i was amazed that the press/public other tennis pros believe that he has a knee injury

 

[Mike Sams]

If Djokovic is fully focused on tennis, Madrid belongs to him.

 

[Mainad]

If Djokovic is fully focused on tennis, Madrid belongs to him.

That's the question. Even before his family bereavement while playing MC, he's been a bit off-focus compared to last year. He was taken to 5 sets in semi and final of AO, semi-final exit in Dubai, semi-final exit in IW, 2nd set tie-breaks in last 3 matches of Miami.

Maybe it's just too difficult to sustain the level of last year's performance. We'll soon see.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Rafael Nadal Parera.

 

[trenzterra]

Federer will win because Nadal will forget that the surface is clay since it's blue and all.

 

[veroniquem]

My assumption is based on Djokovic's current form which has not been very good lately. Back to back is still very possible in best of 3. Also Federer matches up great against Djokovic on clay as we saw last year at RG. Moreover its fast clay, so advantage Federer. Madrid is Federer's best chance to win a clay court tourney imo.

Last year, the only clay event where Fed was really convincing was RG and, giving all he had, he still couldn't beat a Nadal who played a bit less well than this year (on clay) and had so-so confidence. Can Fed surpass his RG form of last year? In my humble opinion: no. I just don't see Fed beating Nadal at RG, no matter what. He will have to play the perfect match just to pass Djoko and that won't be easy to repeat.
In M-C and Rome, Fed looked terrible last year, losing to Melzer and Gasquet. In general, since 2006, Fed has done poorly in Rome. He did better in Madrid but even there he only hanged on for one set vs Rafa and then collapsed completely (breadstick in the second). Rafa seems rather better than last year, so it doesn't look good for Fed unless you seriously believe that the IW win will have any impact on their clay matchup (I don't).
Yes, Fed is capable of pulling a win vs Djoko on clay- and even for that he has to play his best- but he will need Rafa to go awol for a clay title this year (even if his form is anywhere near last year's which we have no clue about until we see his first clay match)

 

[TTMR]

Yep - Shows the incredible depth in tennis today.

Lets just fast forward to the final.

Bask in the golden era, friends.

(At least Djokovic has emerged--better than the painful two horse race prior to 2011)

 

[90's Clay]

Blue clay? who knows.. What the hell have they done to this event. ROFL.

Hopefully Nadal opts out

 

[TennisFan3]

Novak Djokovic..

 

[beast of mallorca]

David Ferrer will be a spoiler here. Hope he wins. It's a long shot but I think he deserves to win even just a Masters at his home country. Maybe Nadal will say I hate blue clay and not play.....I know it's almost impossible but just feel sorry for David for a 4th final loss. He's like Federer's Roddick.

 

[DeShaun]

Now that Djokovic is THE scalp to be had, in his second full year of wearing the target I suspect his rival Rafa may hang two or three key losses on Novak. But I trust that Novak will reach all but two or three finals the rest of the year, and the question would be whether Rafa can meet him there.

It's all about fitness at this point. Novak seems to have figured out the rhythm according to which Rafa likes to play/close out matches. Novak has gained acclaim by exploiting this knowledge and seems to have unnerved or perturbed Rafa by exposing him so thoroughly.

Recently the playing field, however, seems to have leveled somewhat, w/each man knowing the other's game; fitness seems to have moved to the fore importance-wise between them. . .if Novak is not prepared to outwork Rafa, Rafa will show him how it's done. It was too early for Nole to be trading on an aura of invincibility, anyway. These things are tenuous (and always were a function of whose defense was better)!

IMO, work rates on court mainly will separate these two in their rivalry as they move forward.

 

[jayoub95]

I reckon Nadal. He's been playing really well lately.

 

[Sentinel]

Nadal, despite his knee injuries and his game generally "being in the crapper" (sic), will win Madrid without dropping a set. This time round no tie-breaks since he's back in form (unlike 2011 where he was in poor shape or whatever). Clean bagels and breadsticks.

The million dollar question is: in what round will Knole get knocked out ?

 

[sbengte]

Nadal, despite his knee injuries and his game generally "being in the crapper" (sic), will win Madrid without dropping a set. This time round no tie-breaks since he's back in form (unlike 2011 where he was in poor shape or whatever). Clean bagels and breadsticks.

If only all poasters here were sensible enough to see the obvious the way you do, we wouldn't have threads for such obvious questions

OP, you should combine this thread to include Rome and RG too as in "Who will win Madrid, Rome and RG" or "Who will do the clay sweep 2012". Because there is only one answer to that question and you know it, I know it, everyone knows it.

 

[Apun94]

2 possible scenarios acc to me
1. Federer beats Nadal at semis and goes onto win against Djokovic in the finals.
2. Federer beats Djokovic in semis but fails to win against Nadal in finals.

This is clay we are talking about, no chance for Fed. Even crap Nadal beat him at RG, just after Fed beat Nole and had the greatest confidence boost ever...

 

[Apun94]

I think Federer will win Madrid.

No chance, not happening. Two scenarios are likely to occur for Fed:
1. He draws Nole in semis. Even if he does beat Nole, he will meet Nadal in final.
2. Fed meets Nadal in semis.
Nadal will undoubtedly be in the finals. No one can beat Nadal on clay except Nole. Fed just cant beat Nadal on clay...

 

[monfed]

No chance, not happening. Two scenarios are likely to occur for Fed:
1. He draws Nole in semis. Even if he does beat Nole, he will meet Nadal in final.
2. Fed meets Nadal in semis.
Nadal will undoubtedly be in the finals. No one can beat Nadal on clay except Nole. Fed just cant beat Nadal on clay...

The second scenario Fed beats Ralph in the semis and beats Djoker in the final. That's what I'm banking on.

 

[Tenez101]

No chance, not happening. Two scenarios are likely to occur for Fed:
1. He draws Nole in semis. Even if he does beat Nole, he will meet Nadal in final.
2. Fed meets Nadal in semis.
Nadal will undoubtedly be in the finals. No one can beat Nadal on clay except Nole. Fed just cant beat Nadal on clay...

Madrid is the best chance for Fed to get the jump on Nadal on clay. He proved this in '09. The conditions suit him the best among clay tournaments I think. However, I don't see it happening this time. I have a feeling Fed will draw Nole, and it will be a Djokodal final. Expect Djokovic to make a statement here, but if Rafa wins, it's pretty much over for everybody else for the rest of the clay season.

 

[Sentinel]

Is Rafa playing in Estoril or not ? Dejected not to see his name on the play list.

 

[elpolaco84]

If we're lucky non of the top 4

 

[GOAT BAAH!!!]

After a patchy first match Federer will win the tournament with increasingly dominant displays.

 

[Magnus]

If Nadal is knoked out early in the event - Federer wins title.

Else, Nadal wins it.

Djokovic looks weak for the first time in more than a year.

 

[Magnus]

This is clay we are talking about, no chance for Fed. Even crap Nadal beat him at RG, just after Fed beat Nole and had the greatest confidence boost ever...

That's because choker Fed was playing Nadal. Nadal can play with keyboard instead of racquet and still beat Fed.

 

[Feather]

I think Federer will win Madrid.

I too second that. We both think alike a lot. I also feel RF will win RG. Feelings mutual here also, monfed?