Yes, Jannik Sinner is really this good! written by Tennisabstract's Jeff Sackmann

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Sinner is competing against mugs. You have said as much yourself. 2020-present is the worst era of all-time.

Sinner would get trashed if he had to compete in any other decade.

No hard feelings that you are promoting your content, mate, as you are also pushing interesting stat stuff related to Sinner and Tennis.

To get back to basics, the ability of Charlie and Janni to win return points sets them likely apart from the almost all the youngsters in this age of serve dominance.
 
Sinner seems to play better and better on break point itself. For example, he’s 6th in SPW % this year but 1st in hld%. He’s down at 9th in break points allowed per game, but 1st in hold %. This is unusual as players who allow this many break points or lose this many serve points (relatively speaking) don’t hold this well. The reason for this success is that he’s #1 in break points saved % at an absurd 83.3%.
Some of this luck as it is with any player and sooner or later, opponents will take these break point opportunities. But a lot of it is Sinner’s play when down BP.

In 2024, Sinner is 1st in hold percentage, sixth in SPW%, 9th in break points allowed per game.

In 2023, Djoko was 1st in hold percentage, first in SPW% and third in break points allowed per game.

In 2022, Hurk was 1st in hold percentage, second in SPW% and 1st in break points allowed per game.

He did it again lol. He’s at like 85% BPs saved
 

Bambooman

Hall of Fame
I think the thing about Sinner, something I didn't fully realize until Sunday, is that he didn't focus solely on tennis until a relatively late age. He also had an undistinguished junior career. Relative to most young tennis players (say 21 years and younger), both in terms of relative experience and playing style, he probably had/has more potential. Sinner may be in the process of truly reaching that potential right now (or has been in that process since mid-2023).
It does make you think that tennis talent will emerge if given the chance. Sinner is kind of a prodigy that wasn't forced to be. Wawrinka was similar. Rios didn't even play until he was 11
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Will have more time later but it’s well worth to update this thread where Sackmann pointed out that Sinner was holding serve like Isner while breaking like the very best of the returners. After four tournaments it got even better, brutal stuff.



TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
65-11 (86%)​
16-12 (57%)​
8.3%​
60.5%​
76.8%​
57.2%​
89.6%​
69.1%​
28.7%​
40.6%​
54.3%​
1.31​
hide yearly totalsshow splits
2024
22-1 (96%)​
3-1 (75%)​
8.3%​
62.2%​
79.0%​
59.6%​
93.8%​
71.7%​
31.0%​
41.4%​
55.9%​
1.46​
2023
64-15 (81%)​
18-13 (58%)​
8.2%​
59.8%​
76.0%​
56.1%​
87.3%​
68.0%​
28.6%​
40.6%​
53.9%​
1.27​
2022
47-16 (75%)​
16-7 (70%)​
7.6%​
58.4%​
74.5%​
53.4%​
83.4%​
65.7%​
26.5%​
39.9%​
52.6%​
1.16​
2021
49-22 (69%)​
22-14 (61%)​
5.9%​
59.9%​
71.1%​
54.4%​
81.0%​
64.4%​
27.0%​
39.9%​
52.0%​
1.12​
2020
20-14 (59%)​
7-6 (54%)​
4.4%​
60.7%​
71.5%​
49.5%​
79.1%​
62.8%​
27.8%​
40.6%​
51.7%​
1.09​
2019
61-23 (73%)​
15-12 (56%)​
7.4%​
57.5%​
72.3%​
52.6%​
78.8%​
63.9%​
30.4%​
41.0%​
52.1%​
1.14​
2018
16-17 (48%)​
5-5 (50%)​
5.3%​
55.6%​
66.3%​
44.7%​
63.1%​
56.7%​
22.9%​
36.1%​
46.8%​
0.83​
Career
279-108 (72%)​
86-58 (60%)​
7.0%​
59.3%​
73.5%​
53.8%​
82.9%​
65.5%​
28.2%​
40.4%​
52.7%​
1.17​
 
Last edited:

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
He’s likely to finish at 1.38+ DR and 55%+ total points won which is peak big 3 numbers.

Could be possible. He might dominate some lesser players even more on clay while having more trouble with the best. Alcaraz is also on the way to make a huge season, despite his ‘troubles’.
 

ChrisJR3264

Hall of Fame
So I see a lot of bad analysis towards medvedev bc he’s lost to sinner twice and alcaraz.
Coming into the semi finals and finals : med you can argue was actually playing excellent tennis then get absolutely wiped off the court by sinner.

Then comes dimitrov who took alcaraz to school in dominate fashion and took down a hot zverev in 3 playing amazing tennis at a high level.

Sinner beats these two as if they weren’t top 10 or 5 players. He made it look easy.

This is a level of tennis that might ascend to one of the greats. But I don’t want to put that label on him at this moment while it looks to be promising. I’m enjoying this sheer dominance by such a humble kid. He’s playing tactical tennis at a high level with elite weapons. That’s a dangerous combo.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
So I see a lot of bad analysis towards medvedev bc he’s lost to sinner twice and alcaraz.
Coming into the semi finals and finals : med you can argue was actually playing excellent tennis then get absolutely wiped off the court by sinner..

Medvedev would be scary with his serve at the 2022 level, he has been breaking at a very impressive clip. Ironically to some extent the same situation Sinner found himself in 2022 and stretches of 2023…
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Just your post-Master update. Interestingly his SPW% has remained constant while his RPW% has gone down just by the slightest of margins. Hold and break percentages more so, which might have to do with leaving his strongest surface and the adaption process to clay. Obviously without the referee error he would have slightly higher numbers. Overall incredibly impressive.

TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
63-11 (85%)​
15-13 (54%)​
8.5%​
60.7%​
77.5%​
57.2%​
90.4%​
69.6%​
27.5%​
40.0%​
54.2%​
1.31​
hide yearly totalsshow splits
2024
25-2 (93%)​
3-2 (60%)​
7.7%​
61.3%​
79.6%​
59.2%​
93.4%​
71.7%​
30.6%​
41.3%​
55.9%​
1.46​
2023
64-15 (81%)​
18-13 (58%)​
8.2%​
59.8%​
76.0%​
56.1%​
87.3%​
68.0%​
28.6%​
40.6%​
53.9%​
1.27​
2022
47-16 (75%)​
16-7 (70%)​
7.6%​
58.4%​
74.5%​
53.4%​
83.4%​
65.7%​
26.5%​
39.9%​
52.6%​
1.16​
2021
49-22 (69%)​
22-14 (61%)​
5.9%​
59.9%​
71.1%​
54.4%​
81.0%​
64.4%​
27.0%​
39.9%​
52.0%​
1.12​
2020
20-14 (59%)​
7-6 (54%)​
4.4%​
60.7%​
71.5%​
49.5%​
79.1%​
62.8%​
27.8%​
40.6%​
51.7%​
1.09​
2019
61-23 (73%)​
15-12 (56%)​
7.4%​
57.5%​
72.3%​
52.6%​
78.8%​
63.9%​
30.4%​
41.0%​
52.1%​
1.14​
2018
16-17 (48%)​
5-5 (50%)​
5.3%​
55.6%​
66.3%​
44.7%​
63.1%​
56.7%​
22.9%​
36.1%​
46.8%​
0.83​
Career
282-109 (72%)​
86-59 (59%)​
6.9%​
59.2%​
73.6%​
53.8%​
83.0%​
65.6%​
28.2%​
40.4%​
52.7%​
1.17​
 

Galvermegs

New User
So I see a lot of bad analysis towards medvedev bc he’s lost to sinner twice and alcaraz.
Coming into the semi finals and finals : med you can argue was actually playing excellent tennis then get absolutely wiped off the court by sinner.

Then comes dimitrov who took alcaraz to school in dominate fashion and took down a hot zverev in 3 playing amazing tennis at a high level.

Sinner beats these two as if they weren’t top 10 or 5 players. He made it look easy.

This is a level of tennis that might ascend to one of the greats. But I don’t want to put that label on him at this moment while it looks to be promising. I’m enjoying this sheer dominance by such a humble kid. He’s playing tactical tennis at a high level with elite weapons. That’s a dangerous combo.
The easier paths to the semi and final in AO and miami played a part

At least the finals in both events the opponent looked gassed
.but sinner earned his advantage. Very very reserved and passionless panther on the court to contrast with the mildly reserve sampras panther of old
 

ChrisJR3264

Hall of Fame
The easier paths to the semi and final in AO and miami played a part

At least the finals in both events the opponent looked gassed
.but sinner earned his advantage. Very very reserved and passionless panther on the court to contrast with the mildly reserve sampras panther of old
I mean no doubt the AO final med came in with what 8 hours spent more on court? Didn’t look it up but wasn’t talking AO.

Sinner is just balling right now. One can argue if not for a horrendous call to go up a double break in 3rd set at MC - he’d have a masters on clay right now.
 

Galvermegs

New User
I mean no doubt the AO final med came in with what 8 hours spent more on court? Didn’t look it up but wasn’t talking AO.

Sinner is just balling right now. One can argue if not for a horrendous call to go up a double break in 3rd set at MC - he’d have a masters on clay right now.
You can argue but who knows how.ruud would come out against him on the day or the demands of winning a first clay final at that level...
Dont forget the lucky call early on in set 3 against stefanos.. it cuts both ways close or not.
 

ChrisJR3264

Hall of Fame
You can argue but who knows how.ruud would come out against him on the day or the demands of winning a first clay final at that level...
Dont forget the lucky call early on in set 3 against stefanos.. it cuts both ways close or not.
The officiating to start the clay season even before Monte Carlo has been atrocious.
 

Galvermegs

New User
The officiating to start the clay season even before Monte Carlo has been atrocious.
And nothing new..sinner also contrived to lose in indian wells
.if he truly was so strong as you perhaps suggest then a bad game of calls would not matter. He still had the break and stefanos still was a tough opponent who had won the first set quite handily.
 

ChrisJR3264

Hall of Fame
And nothing new..sinner also contrived to lose in indian wells
.if he truly was so strong as you perhaps suggest then a bad game of calls would not matter. He still had the break and stefanos still was a tough opponent who had won the first set quite handily.
Stefanos has been playing well and he’s healthy. But clay is his best and most comfortable surface too.
Sinner is indeed a strong player. You’re confusing strong with untouchable or unbeatable - which was never said. He literally has 2 losses through 4 months of the year. Pretty darn strong if you ask me.
 

Galvermegs

New User
Stefanos has been playing well and he’s healthy. But clay is his best and most comfortable surface too.
Sinner is indeed a strong player. You’re confusing strong with untouchable or unbeatable - which was never said. He literally has 2 losses through 4 months of the year. Pretty darn strong if you ask me.
Im only addressing what you said.
AtG and dominant. Yes sinner is off to the best start this year.. but still a lot can happen. I still see a lock for top 3 season end and probably top 2 though.
 

ChrisJR3264

Hall of Fame
Im only addressing what you said.
AtG and dominant. Yes sinner is off to the best start this year.. but still a lot can happen. I still see a lock for top 3 season end and probably top 2 though.
Also difference between being an ATG and having ATG potential. At 22 - he’s got the potential to win several slams.
 
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