The race to #1

FiReFTW · Jan 28, 2018

Things got quite heated now after this AO.

After ranking update, here will be the new rankings:

1. Rafael Nadal 9760
2. Roger Federer 9.605 (155 behind)

Here are all the points both players are defending till the grass court season:

Dubai/Acapulco (500): Federer 2R (45) - Nadal F (300)
Indian Wells (1000): Federer W (1000) - Nadal 4R (90)
Miami (1000): Federer W (1000) - Nadal F (600)
Monte Carlo (1000): Nadal W (1000)
Barcelona (500): Nadal W (500)
Madrid (1000): Nadal W (1000)
Rome (1000): Nadal QF (180)
French Open (2000): Nadal W (2000)

Considering Nadal has some tremendous results and points to defend, and Federer only really has IW and Miami, I would say if Federer performs decently at IW and Miami, 1 win and 1 QF, or 2x F, I highly doubt Nadal will repeat his last year's results, its possible but very unlikely.

Now if Fed chooses to play Dubai and performs well there too, or maybe a few clay tournaments or French Open, then I can't really see Nadal holding on to his #1.

The only really "decent" cushion that Nadal has to gain some decent points is IW and Rome, elsewhere he has to perform incredibly well and win most tournaments to not lose any points.

Its still too soon to say but IW and Miami will be extremely important, Nadal has to win both and Federer has to perform very bad and then not compete at any clay court events for Nadal to have a chance and stay #1 after the Clay swing.

Deon Sanders · Jan 28, 2018

Nadal to have a chance and stay #1 after the Clay swing.

Nadal is going to have to do the unthinkable again and run the table in clay to keep #1 after the clay swing even with Federer dropping a boatload of points in the sunshine double (if Federer does not manage any decent haul of points)

Absolutely possible for this to go any direction

anhtuanngo · Jan 28, 2018

In all honesty, I think it's going to be pretty hard for Fed to overtake Nadal to become #1. Fed has to win the sunshine double, which is pretty hard to do. Yes, he's done it 3 times in his career, but it takes a lot of good luck and a good draw to achieve. Then there's the clay season, and again let's be honest here, there's no competition for Nadal on clay, he's just a beast. Unless he's not healthy, he's going to be favorite to win it all.
Then again, who cares if he's #1 again, it's all about the slams at this point.

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xFullCourtTenniSx · Jan 28, 2018

You do realize a lot of this discussion hinges on Federer winning both Miami and Indian Wells right (1310 point difference)? Don't think Federer's repeating that feat this year. Federer can hit #1 if Nadal doesn't play defend his points in the next tournament, but after that, Nadal is holding on to #1 pretty firmly. Federer has little room for improvement, while Nadal has a decent amount (while also having the benefit of clay effectively being free wins for him). If Federer doesn't defend his titles, he loses 800 points. More if he doesn't make finals. Nadal can't even lose that much even if he doesn't show up.

What you don't realize is that it's better to have less points to defend in this situation, because then the burden is on your opponent to maintain a hot run, whereas you have plenty of room to improve. Nadal can improve or maintain his point count through a good performance at Indian Wells. Federer can gain a decent chunk from Dubai, but has to defend a large chunk of points in the US, in the tournament double that considered to be the same difficulty as winning a major. You can argue that Nadal has more points to defend once the clay season comes, but he's also a significantly better bet on clay than Federer is on any count. If Federer doesn't defend his titles, Nadal can basically drop 1 title (without even showing up) that isn't the French and still be fine.

Nadal is in a solid spot here. Most of the burden is on Federer to perform, which is asking a lot from him. All Nadal has to do is be the same old him on clay courts.

xFullCourtTenniSx · Jan 28, 2018

anhtuanngo said:
In all honesty, I think it's going to be pretty hard for Fed to overtake Nadal to become #1. Fed has to win the sunshine double, which is pretty hard to do. Yes, he's done it 3 times in his career, but it takes a lot of good luck and a good draw to achieve. Then there's the clay season, and again let's be honest here, there's no competition for Nadal on clay, he's just a beast. Unless he's not healthy, he's going to be favorite to win it all.
Then again, who cares if he's #1 again, it's all about the slams at this point.

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An event that has happened 3 times in his career (which is longer than Nadal's) compared to an event that has happened 10 times in Nadal's. Yeah, I'd rather put my money on Nadal.

As much as I'd like to see Federer be the oldest #1 in ATP history (and probably hold that record forever as a result), it's not likely to happen unless he makes top 2 in Dubai, which will likely hurt his results at the US tournaments. It's his only chance and he's stated before that his goal isn't the #1 spot anymore, it's playing as long as possible.

mike danny · Jan 28, 2018

I hope Federer doesn't play Dubai. We all know what happened the last time he chose to play a tournament just to chase the no.1 ranking...

Fed has had a great start to 2018. Let's not turn into 2013 from now on.

BGod · Jan 28, 2018

Fed isn't playing Miami.

ohiostate124 · Jan 28, 2018

anhtuanngo said:
In all honesty, I think it's going to be pretty hard for Fed to overtake Nadal to become #1. Fed has to win the sunshine double, which is pretty hard to do. Yes, he's done it 3 times in his career, but it takes a lot of good luck and a good draw to achieve. Then there's the clay season, and again let's be honest here, there's no competition for Nadal on clay, he's just a beast. Unless he's not healthy, he's going to be favorite to win it all.
Then again, who cares if he's #1 again, it's all about the slams at this point.

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All he has to do is win Dubai if he really wants #1

fedfan39 · Jan 28, 2018

Fed should focus on W and USO. Use the MS tournaments as warm ups.

I feel as long as he wins those 2 slams, he will finish #1 (which is a more important goal) no matter what Nadal does.

While Fed might not win the sunshine double, he could very well win IW. He should also not make the mistake of playing in Canada and focus on Cincy instead.

USO will bend over backwards this year to make it as easy as possible for Fed (faster surface, night matches, whatever it takes).

anhtuanngo · Jan 28, 2018

xFullCourtTenniSx said:
An event that has happened 3 times in his career (which is longer than Nadal's) compared to an event that has happened 10 times in Nadal's. Yeah, I'd rather put my money on Nadal.

As much as I'd like to see Federer be the oldest #1 in ATP history (and probably hold that record forever as a result), it's not likely to happen unless he makes top 2 in Dubai, which will likely hurt his results at the US tournaments. It's his only chance and he's stated before that his goal isn't the #1 spot anymore, it's playing as long as possible.

That's what I'm thinking as well, Nadal has the advantage here.

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xFullCourtTenniSx · Jan 28, 2018

anhtuanngo said:
That's what I'm thinking as well, Nadal has the advantage here.

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I don't know about advantage. It looks like Nadal has the high ground. One does not merely f**k with the high ground.

timnz · Jan 28, 2018

anhtuanngo said:
In all honesty, I think it's going to be pretty hard for Fed to overtake Nadal to become #1. Fed has to win the sunshine double, which is pretty hard to do. Yes, he's done it 3 times in his career, but it takes a lot of good luck and a good draw to achieve. Then there's the clay season, and again let's be honest here, there's no competition for Nadal on clay, he's just a beast. Unless he's not healthy, he's going to be favorite to win it all.
Then again, who cares if he's #1 again, it's all about the slams at this point.

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I think Federer will overtake briefly in feb and early March, but holding onto it I am not sure

Deon Sanders · Jan 28, 2018

anhtuanngo said:
That's what I'm thinking as well, Nadal has the advantage here.

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Federer has about 2000 points to defend until Grass

Nadal has 4500

How does Nadal have the upper hand really?

Sure Fed wont get it RIGHT NOW but odds are Nadal does not sweep AGAIN

merlinpinpin · Jan 28, 2018

Deon Sanders said:
Federer has about 2000 points to defend until Grass

Nadal has 4500

How does Nadal have the upper hand really?

Sure Fed wont get it RIGHT NOW but odds are Nadal does not sweep AGAIN

Actually, Fed has 2,045 points to defend, if you want to be exact--and Nadal has a whopping 5,670. The tough thing for Fed was not to lose too many points on Nadal at AO, and he gained a lot. Provided he wants to chase #1 at some time, I guess he's got about 95-99% of getting it (and even if he doesn't chase it by playing on clay, chances are Nadal won't defend all his clay points from last year. First thing for Nadal is defending an Acapulco final (and hoping Fed doesn't play Rotterdam), otherwise he's toast even before the sunshine double. Otherwise, he will very probably be toast during the clay season.

As for Nadal "playing better than last year while Federer is way worse", sure--their results so far this year seem to confirm that. Not.

anhtuanngo · Jan 28, 2018

Deon Sanders said:
Federer has about 2000 points to defend until Grass

Nadal has 4500

How does Nadal have the upper hand really?

Sure Fed wont get it RIGHT NOW but odds are Nadal does not sweep AGAIN

ok...please name me the current players that can beat Nadal on clay, because I don't know any right now.

Djokovic could - injured currently, unsure if he's going to have surgery or not.
Murray could - he's out because of surgery
Warwinka could - out of match shape and just came back from surgery
Fognini ? - flip a coin with this guy, complete head case

The only one that could possibly beat him is Thiem, he's got the game and spin to beat him, beaten him before. Just got to be more tactical in my opinion.

anhtuanngo · Jan 28, 2018

timnz said:
I think Federer will overtake briefly in feb and early March, but holding onto it I am not sure

This pretty much.

Rapha-17 · Jan 28, 2018

Federer will run & hide during clay season as usual. Coward.

Chadillac · Jan 28, 2018

Its hard to believe nadal is #1, whens the last time he beat a top player?

anhtuanngo · Jan 28, 2018

Rapha-17 said:
Federer will run & hide during clay season as usual. Coward.

"As usual"...lol new user.

He only skipped the whole clay season last year. what a troll.

Deon Sanders · Jan 28, 2018

Chadillac said:
Its hard to believe nadal is #1, whens the last time he beat a top player?

2014

Rapha-17 · Jan 28, 2018

anhtuanngo said:
"As usual"...lol new user.

He only skipped the whole clay season last year. what a troll.

OK rookie. Doesn't seem to play the FO anymore..

metsman · Jan 28, 2018

Rapha-17 said:
OK rookie. Doesn't seem to play the FO anymore..

Rafa hasn't seemed to play grass since 2011. Why is that?

Rapha-17 · Jan 28, 2018

metsman said:
Rafa hasn't seemed to play grass since 2011. Why is that?

Funny. At least he showed up. Federer has nothing but fear when it comes to Rafa on clay.

anhtuanngo · Jan 28, 2018

Rapha-17 said:
OK rookie. Doesn't seem to play the FO anymore..

He's 36...he can skip all the tournaments he wants. Payed dividends last year winning Wimbledon didn't it ?

Rapha-17 · Jan 28, 2018

anhtuanngo said:
He's 36...he can skip all the tournaments he wants. Payed dividends last year winning Wimbledon didn't it ?

What a cheap way to win a grand slam.

metsman · Jan 28, 2018

Rapha-17 said:
Funny. At least he showed up. Federer has nothing but fear when it comes to Rafa on clay.

If he played he wouldn't even make it to Rafa so I don't know what you're going on about.

Again, skipping clay starting at 36 is a hell of a lot better than skipping grass starting at 26

metsman · Jan 28, 2018

Rapha-17 said:
What a cheap way to win a grand slam.

A cheap way to win a slam would be facing no top 25 players no?

anhtuanngo · Jan 28, 2018

Rapha-17 said:
What a cheap way to win a grand slam.

Cheap slam like the USO 17

Rapha-17 · Jan 28, 2018

metsman said:
If he played he wouldn't even make it to Rafa so I don't know what you're going on about.

Again, skipping clay starting at 36 is a hell of a lot better than skipping grass starting at 26

You guys pick on Rafa all you want to. He will be back. Mark my words!

metsman · Jan 28, 2018

Rapha-17 said:
You guys pick on Rafa all you want to. He will be back. Mark my words!

I know he will be. Just explaining why it's fine that Fed doesn't play clay. He played in 2016 when not healthy and it screwed him over, and he's 2 years older now.

Rapha-17 · Jan 28, 2018

metsman said:
I know he will be. Just explaining why it's fine that Fed doesn't play clay. He played in 2016 when not healthy and it screwed him over, and he's 2 years older now.

The fact that you have to make excuses for the so called GOAT is sad in itself. All this talk of how old he is. Look at Tom Brady! Federer doesn't getting sacked by 300 lb men!

anhtuanngo · Jan 28, 2018

Rapha-17 said:
Federer will run & hide during clay season as usual. Coward.

Rapha-17 said:
You guys pick on Rafa all you want to. He will be back. Mark my words!

who's picking on who ? you started this.

TearTheRoofOff · Jan 28, 2018

Rapha-17 said:
Funny. At least he showed up. Federer has nothing but fear when it comes to Rafa on clay.

Most players who are Roger's age skip the entire tour every year.

nicklane1 · Jan 28, 2018

anhtuanngo said:
who's picking on who ? you started this.

Rapha-17 said:
You guys pick on Rafa all you want to. He will be back. Mark my words!

Respect and like Rafa a lot, but he won't be back with the same dominance on clay. There is just so much his body can take with his style of play.

Rapha-17 · Jan 28, 2018

TearTheRoofOff said:
Most players who are Roger's age skip the entire tour every year.

He's won 3/5 slams. Doesn't look too geriatric to me! Play the clay Roger.

Rapha-17 · Jan 28, 2018

nicklane1 said:
Respect and like Rafa a lot, but he won't be back with the same dominance on clay. There is just so much his body can take with his style of play.

Everyone said the same thing about Federer too. They all look like fools now.

nicklane1 · Jan 28, 2018

Rapha-17 said:
Everyone said the same thing about Federer too. They all look like fools now.

i never doubted Roger.
... and apparently you, Rafa

Rapha-17 · Jan 28, 2018

nicklane1 said:
i never doubted Roger.
... and apparently you, Rafa

Lots doubt Rafa. Not a smart thing to do.

nicklane1 · Jan 28, 2018

anhtuanngo said:
ok...please name me the current players that can beat Nadal on clay, because I don't know any right now.

Djokovic could - injured currently, unsure if he's going to have surgery or not.
Murray could - he's out because of surgery
Warwinka could - out of match shape and just came back from surgery
Fognini ? - flip a coin with this guy, complete head case

The only one that could possibly beat him is Thiem, he's got the game and spin to beat him, beaten him before. Just got to be more tactical in my opinion.

Nishikori might have a chance at Madrid or Barcelona.

Towser83 · Jan 28, 2018

Rapha-17 said:
He's won 3/5 slams. Doesn't look too geriatric to me! Play the clay Roger.

Yeah because he picked what events to play wisely, no point playing what you're not likely to win. Playing Canada potentially cost him the USO

Though if you're right, last year Fed could have played RG, would have probably lost before meeting Nadal so that's fine, and picked up enough points to have denied Nadal the number 1 ranking. That's by your logic. So Fed did Nadal a favour.

anhtuanngo · Jan 28, 2018

nicklane1 said:
Nishikori might have a chance at Madrid or Barcelona.

kind of injiry prone as well....keeps retiring from matches.

maybe chung ? haven't seen him play of clay yet. Seems to have the grinding style that works so well for djokovic and nadal.

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I Am Finnish · Jan 28, 2018

BGod said:
Fed isn't playing Miami.

fact or spec

reaper · Jan 28, 2018

I don't think YE#1 is a two horse race. Injury can strike both Fed and Nadal at any time.

BeatlesFan · Jan 28, 2018

anhtuanngo said:
In all honesty, I think it's going to be pretty hard for Fed to overtake Nadal to become #1.

Nonsense. All Fed has to do is make the finals of Dubai and Nadal not win (or not play) Acapulco. That's not "pretty hard," that is actually pretty easy. Fed might lose the #1 ranking during IW or Miami, but the chances of Rafa cleaning the table again on clay are not good, meaning Fed retakes #1 in April or May.

anhtuanngo · Jan 28, 2018

BeatlesFan said:
Nonsense. All Fed has to do is make the finals of Dubai and Nadal not win (or not play) Acapulco. That's not "pretty hard," that is actually pretty easy. Fed might lose the #1 ranking during IW or Miami, but the chances of Rafa cleaning the table again on clay are not good, meaning Fed retakes #1 in April or May.

I think it depends all on Nadal. I doubt that Fed will add a tournament to his schedule, so Dubai is out of the question. If Nadal doesn't make the semi finals, then yes he becomes #1 again.
Nadal will defend all of his points on clay IMO as stated earlier, the field is just too weak on clay.

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AceSalvo · Jan 28, 2018

BeatlesFan said:
Nonsense. All Fed has to do is make the finals of Dubai and Nadal not win (or not play) Acapulco. That's not "pretty hard," that is actually pretty easy. Fed might lose the #1 ranking during IW or Miami, but the chances of Rafa cleaning the table again on clay are not good, meaning Fed retakes #1 in April or May.

Fed slacked off bigtime after Wimb17 and he had every right to do that as he just got crowned King of AELTC. Playing Montreal was a shot in the foot concerning the YE#1. His fitness going into USO17 was questionable all the way through the WTF.

I dont think Fed will repeat that this time around and hence may not feel pressed about playing Dubai.

MeatTornado · Jan 28, 2018

BeatlesFan said:
Nonsense. All Fed has to do is make the finals of Dubai and Nadal not win (or not play) Acapulco. That's not "pretty hard," that is actually pretty easy. Fed might lose the #1 ranking during IW or Miami, but the chances of Rafa cleaning the table again on clay are not good, meaning Fed retakes #1 in April or May.

Why not? Novak is still a mess and you obviously don't trust Thiem as far as you can throw him.

chjtennis · Jan 28, 2018

BGod said:
Fed isn't playing Miami.

Why do you say that?

titoelcolombiano · Jan 28, 2018

xFullCourtTenniSx said:
I don't know about advantage. It looks like Nadal has the high ground. One does not merely f**k with the high ground.

Just ask Anakin

titoelcolombiano · Jan 28, 2018

Rafa will be a heavy favourite for Acapulco and Fed may or may not play Dubai. From there Fed has the big task of defending the Sunshine Double points to stay in the conversation (in the short term) and then after that Rafa has his own big task of defending his clay points to stay in front. After the clay season Nadal doesn't have any significante points to defend until the US Open.

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