DRII
G.O.A.T.
you can deserve your wins and still be lucky AF!
Djokovic v Nadal - Race to YE#1 2018
- Thread starter TripleATeam
- Start date
kevaninho
Hall of Fame
Certainly would make sense to me to have the break after the FO. Its incredibly harsh the clay season going into Wimbledon with not much rest for the HC and indoor season.
Djokovic2011
Bionic Poster
Don't be salty!
JacksonColt
Rookie
I'm going to go out on a limb and say predictions aren't your strong suit.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
So with Nadal's withdrawal from 2 events...
Nadal can earn a total of 3000 more points - Vienna, Paris, WTF.
Djokovic has the full 4500 on his table.
With every passing day, Djokovic looks more likely to end the year as #1. If Djokovic wins Shanghai (which he's probable to do, or at least make the semis), he lowers the point gap between the two to just 35 points in the race.
Nadal can earn a total of 3000 more points - Vienna, Paris, WTF.
Djokovic has the full 4500 on his table.
With every passing day, Djokovic looks more likely to end the year as #1. If Djokovic wins Shanghai (which he's probable to do, or at least make the semis), he lowers the point gap between the two to just 35 points in the race.
Djokodalerer31
Hall of Fame
It is a done deal at this point! Come the heck on! Lol Nadal ain't even reaching finals of Paris and WTF in his conditions! Virtually ANY player can stop him even when he is healthy on indoor courts, let alone when one plays with knee injury! Hell i wouldn't even be surprised if somewhere closer to November we would getbthe news he is not going to play Paris and/or WTF!...Novak doesn't even need to play any ATP 500 events! He can win all three - Shanghai, Paris and WTF without the help of Beijing or Vienna to end the year as world number one! Lets get real here! Lol
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Ok, I'm all for rooting for Novak. Hell, I made this thread before he even won Cincinatti. If he wins YE#1, I should get a goddamn medal.
Yes, Novak is the favorite at all remaining events. Yes, the likelihood is high he wins any individual one of them, or even two. Will he win all 3? Probably not.
Is it possible for Nadal to make it deep in HC events even after an injury? Quite so. Is the field weak? Yes. If Nadal plays, he's likely to go deep, and if he does that well enough, he'll give Novak a run for his money. Do I think Novak will win YE#1? Yes, completely. I think he has 80% chance, maybe a bit higher. But temper your expectations. An early exit at one of them could spell trouble, especially if Nadal is consistent.
Wanna see a scenario Nadal remains YE#1?
Shanghai: Novak W, Nadal Absent
Vienna: Novak Absent, Nadal W
Paris: Novak QF, Nadal SF
WTF: Novak W(0 loss), Nadal F (0 loss)
That seems possible to me. Likely? Maybe not, but maybe Djokovic has a bad day and things don't go his way. Maybe he loses a RR match at the WTF. Point is, Nadal has a commanding lead, and Shanghai will be instrumental in cutting it down. But even then, YE#1 is not secured.
Djokodalerer31
Hall of Fame
Oh please cut me some slack now would you?! He can easily win all three in a single breath! Especially being on the streak winning Cinci-USO back to back now! Give me a break, who the hell will top him in Paris masters, where he helds an all-time record and won it a record three consecutive times??!
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
It won't be the opponent. It will be him. If he lets it get to him, or he sleeps wrong. Anything can happen, and with a zoning opponent that smells blood in the water, it can spell doom. Point is, it could happen at Shanghai or at Paris. Worse, it could happen as the season's drawing to a close. Not likely, but neither was his loss to Murray at WTF 2016 after Murray played 2 record-breaking long matches and Novak sailed into the finals. But Murray got him and took #1, too. Point is, it may not be likely, but it's possible.
I'd love to see him win all 3. That would assure #1 practically the whole year in 2019. Plus, it would mean #15 is peeking out over the horizon. I'm glad to see your optimism, but I'm toning down my own as it becomes increasingly likely to temper my own expectations.
Djokodalerer31
Hall of Fame
In the entire second half of 2016 he played like crap, WTF included! Even in those matches, which you mentioned he "sailed" through he looked like a mere shadow of his former self and his loss to Murray in the finals was not only forseen, but also logical and expected! Especially given how Murray spent the second half of 2016 in contrast to Nole! Situation now and back then is way different! Nole's level of tennis even while not at fullest is still more than enough to land him victories at all three big tournaments until the end of the year!...I thought everyone already came to that conclusion after he won USO by only dropping two sets in first two matches and closing Delpo in straights in finals! And yet people still doubt him??! Lol What version of him do you think is better, the one against Wawrinka in USO final or the one against Delpo this year??!...If you answer former - then there is something wrong with you...
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Tell you what, bump me if he wins all 3. I'll gladly concede that you were right.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Anything can happen but he really didn't play well in fall 2016. He allowed Murray to just walk him down when he had a commanding lead. I think this season he will be pumped to try to get the ranking and try to go for the full sweep (Shanghai/Paris/WTF) like he did in 2013 and 2015. He probably won't get it but he really could only win two of them (Shanghai or Paris, and the WTF) like he did in 2012 and 2014 and lock down that ranking. It's important to mention he won Beijing in all those years and I think he needs to play it this year to distance himself as much as possible.
Djokodalerer31
Hall of Fame
Its also important not to overdo it! Because there will be gigantic amount of pounts to defend next year! I would like Novak to pull off another 2015 by holding number one ranking throughout entire year without dropping it once! Will be hard to do if he doesn't leave room for free points in case of emergency for the next year! I feel like adding Beijing title on top of that would be overdoing it...i would rather him winning all three Shanghai-Paris-WTF this year and leave extra 500 points to gain for the next one, than have a case when he wins all four this year with having every single one of them to defend next year!
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Well he typically has played Beijing, Shanghai, Paris and WTF in the fall. That is usually his schedule but he skipped Beijing in 2016 because of injury. He has a great chance to hold that ranking all next year if he has a really good fall and does really well in Australia. He really has only 1000 points to defend next year until Wimbledon so he can really distance himself from Australia until Wimbledon if he plays at a top level. From there on, it's just about defending as many of those points as much as possible but if he does well enough he will keep the ranking.
RF-18
Talk Tennis Guru
Davis Cup is in such a mess I don’t understand the amendments to be honest. maybe Laver Cup will eventually replace it in terms of prestige
D
Deleted member 77403
Guest
Maybe. But for what I know, Laver Cup matches do not officially count, it is pure exho. Davis Cup is a legit competitive event with official matches that give ranking points and contribute to H2H.
Im(moral) Winner
G.O.A.T.
DC doesn't give ranking points anymore. Hasn't for a few years.
Zardoz7/12
Hall of Fame
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
I decided a new post would probably hold better continuity following Shanghai.
Nadal's race total: 7480
Djokovic: 7445
Of tournaments they are even somewhat likely to participate in, 3 remain:
Basel/Vienna (500)
Paris (1000)
ATP Final (1500)
For a total of 3000 points left on the board.
There is a gap of 35 points between the two of them.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. DJOKOVIC VS NADAL - HISTORICALLY EXPECTED RUN - ALL OUT
Let's say they both play wherever they can and don't get injured while doing so.
Novak won Vienna once - 2007. No decent runs anytime else. He won Basel in 2009, final in 2010, semifinal in 2011. Nadal has a F, QF,
Seeing the form he's in, Djokovic should be able to win a 500. Nadal is coming off an injury and doesn't excel during this part of the season, but nonetheless he is in the top 2 players this year. Either F or SF. I'll say F.
.........................................Novak...........................Nadal
Basel/Vienna (500)...W......................……...….F
Paris (1000).................F.................................…..SF
ATP Final (1500)........W (1 L)............…...........SF (0 L)
Djokovic YE points: 10245
Nadal YE points: 8740
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. SKIP 500
In absence of an overwhelming drive to finish as #1, both may see a 500 as potentially detrimental to their health and Paris/WTF prospects. In this scenario they focus on those. Nadal likely benefits more from the lesser strain on his body.
.........................................Novak...........................Nadal
Basel/Vienna (500)...Absent............……...….Absent
Paris (1000).................F.................................…..W (Anywhere from SF-W is possible, depending on his form)
ATP Final (1500)........W (0 L)......….................SF (0 L)
Djokovic YE points: 9545
Nadal YE points: 9480
*If Djokovic draws Federer in his RR group, it's entirely possible that he leaves the RR stage 2-1 and Nadal ends the year #1.
Nadal's race total: 7480
Djokovic: 7445
Of tournaments they are even somewhat likely to participate in, 3 remain:
Basel/Vienna (500)
Paris (1000)
ATP Final (1500)
For a total of 3000 points left on the board.
There is a gap of 35 points between the two of them.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. DJOKOVIC VS NADAL - HISTORICALLY EXPECTED RUN - ALL OUT
Let's say they both play wherever they can and don't get injured while doing so.
Novak won Vienna once - 2007. No decent runs anytime else. He won Basel in 2009, final in 2010, semifinal in 2011. Nadal has a F, QF,
Seeing the form he's in, Djokovic should be able to win a 500. Nadal is coming off an injury and doesn't excel during this part of the season, but nonetheless he is in the top 2 players this year. Either F or SF. I'll say F.
.........................................Novak...........................Nadal
Basel/Vienna (500)...W......................……...….F
Paris (1000).................F.................................…..SF
ATP Final (1500)........W (1 L)............…...........SF (0 L)
Djokovic YE points: 10245
Nadal YE points: 8740
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. SKIP 500
In absence of an overwhelming drive to finish as #1, both may see a 500 as potentially detrimental to their health and Paris/WTF prospects. In this scenario they focus on those. Nadal likely benefits more from the lesser strain on his body.
.........................................Novak...........................Nadal
Basel/Vienna (500)...Absent............……...….Absent
Paris (1000).................F.................................…..W (Anywhere from SF-W is possible, depending on his form)
ATP Final (1500)........W (0 L)......….................SF (0 L)
Djokovic YE points: 9545
Nadal YE points: 9480
*If Djokovic draws Federer in his RR group, it's entirely possible that he leaves the RR stage 2-1 and Nadal ends the year #1.
Last edited:
D
Deleted member 512391
Guest
I can't see Nadal outplaying Djokovic during the indoors season, so it's safe to assume that Novak is the no. 1 player for the 2018.
-NN-
G.O.A.T.
D
Deleted member 512391
Guest
Even though his comeback was impressive, I'm still reserved regarding the next year. He'll be 32 and players usually lose their consistency when they turn 29/30, no matter how legendary they are.
On the other hand, there are still no big obstacles in the field, so you never know...
Djokodalerer31
Hall of Fame
Lmao please spare me the bull! Didn't stop Rafa from winning two grand slams and finishing the year first! Federer didn't have any problem with his confidence either aged 36! Lol Neither should Novak!
TheMaestro1990
Hall of Fame
Signed, sealed, delivered, it's Djokovic's.
D
Deleted member 512391
Guest
Both Federer and Nadal have inferior 2018 compared to their comeback year, 2017, and their level indeed dropped. If you don't see it, you're blind.
Also, I said the players lose their consistency, not confidence. And it happened to all the legendary players, Laver, Sampras, Federer, Nadal. It will happen to Djokovic eventually.
Djokodalerer31
Hall of Fame
Eventually, yeah! Lol But not in 2019! Snap out of it, he only just started winning for God's sake! Its literally been just four months since he gained back his winning form! Lets talk about losing consistency something closer to the end of next year we?!
CYGS
Legend
More like they wish Djokovic would lose consistency right away.
D
Deleted member 512391
Guest
My point is that players are more prone to inconsistent performances when they reach a certain age, no matter how legendary they are. But, ok, let's wait and see.
Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil
Talk Tennis Guru
Good read.
I did not see a race happening myself but it's interesting reading posts of those who dismissed it in way harsher tone.
I did not see a race happening myself but it's interesting reading posts of those who dismissed it in way harsher tone.
D
Deleted member 77403
Guest
Both Nadal and Federer were solid all year in 2017, Djokovic hardly did anything until half way into the season this year. He is completely fresh, has almost zero points to defend for the first half of the year, where historically he has been at his best. If he brings his real form into AO, IW and Miami, he will be racking up points at an insane rate. That alone will put him in good hands to dominate the top the rankings for many months into 2018, and unless someone does something even more special, it will be hard to see Djokovic not at least defend half of the points he won this summer.
Soul_Evisceration
Hall of Fame
Not being the biggest fan of Djokovic but I must admit what he's doing lately is nothing short of remarkable ever since firing Agassi.
If he wins the YE#1 which is a strong possibility now, he will earn it.
If he wins the YE#1 which is a strong possibility now, he will earn it.
D
Deleted member 512391
Guest
Yeah, that's a good point. I totally forgot that he'd missed the second part of 2017 and played a few matches at the start of 2018. He's still relatively fresh compared to Fedal at the end of 2017, so he might make another massacre during the first part of the next year.
D
Deleted member 77403
Guest
Yes, and those courts are more to his liking.
tennisfan2015
Hall of Fame
For all those who do not know Nadl is recovering successfully from yet another transplant. This time from his most picked area as it is the most resistant and heavily cultivated .
How many Slams for Djokovic now?
You said before 14 going to be his ceiling for not having big weapon like Fedal forehand shots.
D
Deleted member 512391
Guest
I still think that he will end up with less Majors than either of them. Like Federer and Nadal in the last two years, he's also taking advantage of a relatively weak field.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Rafa's level did not drop. He got injured. In fact, I think he played better this year at times than he did last year. If Djokovic hadn't woke up from his slumber when he did, Nadal would have had another 2 Slam year and another channel Slam. Sorry Martin, you're a good poster but you were one of the ones who wrote Djokovic off. You implied he didn't have the weapons to get back to this level and now you're already predicting he's going to fall off after just resurging 3 months ago? Naw man. Djokovic is getting ready to ride this wave for a good while yet.
D
Deleted member 512391
Guest
Well, I have no problem to admit that I was wrong regarding Djokovic's comeback, and I already posted a comment about it in the "Djokovic - Coric Shanghai" thread.
Also, I never predicted that he's going to fall off, I just said that I would be careful while giving a prediction about a 30+ year old player and gave my reasons, pls re-read the initial comment carefully.
And I still think that he doesn't have a weapon as big as Fedal forehand and will always have a tougher job to win the Majors.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Ok I missed the comment but good on you for owning up to it.
Djokovic is the best player in the world again. He basically has picked up right where he left off. I don't see many crazy predictions but I see no reason why he can't continue at this level at 31 especially when he really is still fresh physically, having not played much earlier this year after being away from the tour for 8 months.
Does it look like he's having a tougher time winning majors to you? They did it over the course of the whole year last year and he did it in 3 months. Djokovic has many weapons and his forehand is definitely a weapon in its own right. You don't win 14 Slams without formidable weapons.
D
Deleted member 512391
Guest
Well I didn't say that he doesn't have weapons, just that he lacks the killer weapon and, frankly, I don't get why such statement upsets you that much. We already had a discussion about this and you reacted in the same why, like someone was disrespecting Djokovic or diminishing his success.
Of course he has a lot of weapons, you don't hold all four majors by being a weaponless player. When he puts all the pieces together, he's a monster and it's very hard to beat him anywhere. But he still lacks that one shot that could get him out of trouble with much less effort.
I would say that his serve in 2015 (and partially in this year) is close to that formidable weapon, but, unlike Fedal, who have been very consistent with their forehands throughout their whole career, his serve hasn't been that steady.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
I don't remember you wording it that way and it's not that that the statement upsets me. It's just so blatantly incorrect that I'm surprised it came from you. Djokovic's game is a combination of weapons, a package. It's the serve, return, forehand, backhand and defense to offense. All of these are weapons and together, they are killer. Fedal may have 3 of these attributes as weapons but not all 5 which is why Djokovic is unique and why he can play 85% of his ability and still beat most of the tour. His forehand may not be on their level but it's a high enough level on its own.
Djokovic's serve was a weapon even in 2011 but it got much better under Becker and was great from 2014-2016. It is now back to close to that level with the way he is serving now. He won Shanghai without losing serve.
We just disagree on this. We did have this discussion before and I told you were wrong and it would be proven. It was. So I guess there is not much else to say about it. Lol.
D
Deleted member 512391
Guest
Exactly! All these weapons together are killer, but if one of these is off, whether it is his forehand or his serve, he's in trouble and has much tougher time on the court. Nadal's or Federer's forehand technique rarely breaks and that shot is and has been extremely reliable. Novak's backhand is in the same league, but BH is not a shot that dictates the really or decides the match as much as the forehand or serve.
How exactly I was proven wrong, about what?We just disagree on this. We did have this discussion before and I told you were wrong and it would be proven. It was. So I guess there is not much else to say about it. Lol.
And btw, Djokovic's serve was not a weapon in 2011, he was broken numerous of times, it's just that his return and the ground game were ridiculously good.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
To be honest, you wrote him off and you said you never thought he had enough ability to win more than 14 Slams because he didn't have a killer weapon like Fedal. You basically implied he was done and could not win in his 30s like Fedal because of this. It came off like you were implying he was inferior to Fedal and would never get back to this level. I can pull up your posts but I would rather let it go.
Ok that's fine if you think his serve was not weapon but you don't win 74% 1st serve points and 56% 2nd serve points for the whole year with an inferior serve.
I think we both have said what we had to say and should just let it go at this point.
D
Deleted member 512391
Guest
That's right and while I was wrong about the number of Majors, I haven't changed my opinion and still stay behind the arguments I listed in that post. I don't believe he will surpass either of them, when it comes to the number of Majors.
And, dude, you can pull up any post you want, it's not like I'm ashamed of what I wrote or that I won't admit that I got wrong (which you and this guy Nalby seem to imply).
Imo, his serve, as an isolated shot, was not a great weapon, but he compensated it with the other parts of his game, thus his stats was superior anyway.
Enjoy your victory.
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