Clay to expose Sinner false dawn? (Sinner 2024 vs Fed 2004)

How close will Sinner get to Federer's 2004 accomplishments? (up to 2 votes)

  • Sinner just comes up short (3 slams, but worse results in smaller events)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

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    48
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Meles

Bionic Poster
First great thread @Meles, love your intellectual curiosity!



Alcaraz attacks with Federerian flair while Sinner suffocates with Djokovician discipline but they win serve and return percentages the other way around.

Winning quickly comes down to performance margin, playing dynamics and surface. On clay the sheer dominance of Nadal really shortened the playing time and Alcaraz might follow that path with the due distance.

’Super-Sinner‘ has been holding over 93% and it will be interesting how much that number will drop over the clay swing. He doesn’t gain as much as other players from having more time…
Gimplitos dynamics are proving problematic and despite the stats being good on clay (and he should have won RG last year), he's won slams on grass and hard courts. For me Indian Wells is his sweet spot for surface. This burst in level (a really great one) by Sinner will have its equivalents for Rune and Alcaraz in a few years or so, but we won't know the true balance of power until those two players mature. Other threats might emerge, but Super-Sinner is checking all the boxes in a big way. All three are quite you so they will face serve challenges from other top players here and there.

Some more Sinner hype for this thread:
 
This is basically the equivalent of " Roger Federer as a religious experience" but for Sinner lol, he better win at least one more slam this year now.
 
@NeutralFan be like
814.jpg
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
This is not some jinx thread against sinner, but on paper he's poised to exceed Federer's 2004:
1. Both turn 23 years old in August of their respective years (the start of their primes)
2. Both through the Sunshine double have won one major and one masters and one ATP 500.
3. Sinner has only lost once so far to Alcaraz in Indian Wells SF taking the first set at arguably Alcaraz's best tournament. Fed lost to Henman in Rotterdam and a very young Rafa (his kryptonite) in Miami.
4. Federer by this stage of the year had played a lot more including two Davis Cup ties (5 set matches:oops:) and actually won't play again until Hamburg and Rome (back to back one week masters 1000 like the Madrid/Rome). Federer lost early in Rome which allowed him to win Hamburg.
5. Sinner has managed his schedule rather nicely and will be able to play Monte Carlo this week and has the added luxury that Madrid and Rome are now two week events, so he may be able to widen his lead in this race despite Federer arguably being the better clay court player.
6. Federer lost early to Kuerten at RG (straight sets) so Sinner seems highly likely to best this unless he has the bad luck of drawing a resurgent Nadal early in the event.
7. Granted Sinner is not #1 yet, but he has managed to leap to #2 and already it has paid off as Alcaraz and Djokovic are in the other half of the Monte Carlo draw.
8. Sinner has the better hard court stats winning 56% of points to 55% of points and even more importantly the gap is due to betterer serve numbers. Imagine Fed's serve game from 2006-2007 married to 2004's return game.
9. Federer was humiliated by a young Berdych at the 2004 Olympics.
10. Sinner gets on court coaching while Federer was more of a mind to completely ignore his coaches altogether.

Monte Carlo will really be critical for Sinner since he's in danger of slipping back to #3, but Alcaraz has a forearm injury affecting his serve and forehand. The field potentially may be much stronger in 2024 if:
1. Nadal is able to compete (Nadal was out of RG in 2004 and both masters)
2. Zverev has a good clay season (a grueling opponent)... and Zverev has a chance of passing Medvedev for #4 seed at RG if Medvedev has a poor clay season.

Don't let the eye test deceive you; much of the Federer mystique was his new found mastery of poly on faster surfaces while some of his top competition was still using gut. To be sure his game looked amazing, but it had weaknesses whereas Sinner has none. Where Sinner excels over Federer (and the other Big 3 members) is his unprecendented timing plus the fact that this package comes from a player three inches taller than Federer. You can't really see serve stats with an eye test, but serves win slams and other big tournaments because big servers tend to have shorter, less grueling matches. Sinner may easily have the most balanced game of all for winning with Sampras level serving combined with peak Federer returning. With his run in Miami the US Open seems a distinct possibility, his timing will aid him greatly on grass, and so if he somehow turns out to be more formidable on clay than expected even the Calendar slam is not out of reach.
Thanks to Meles, the new new gen hype has resurfaced.
(y)
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
It's really not fair to compare these eras. For one thing, Sinner is competing in probably the worst period that the men's game has seen since 1973.

Roger Federer had Roddick, Hewitt, Safin, young Nadal, Nalbandian, and Agassi to contend with.

Sinner has ancient Djokovic, Medvedev, and Alcaraz.

No comparison indeed.
And Agassi was not ancient too?
:whistle:
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
Having a estimate of 3 is better, I thought you were speaking of 5 both is not easily possible.

My point is clay field for a change is getting stronger , we are getting good floater which we were missing in last 20 years, clay field is still not same as hc field but it is becomeing better for last two years.
Really?
:oops:
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
The nature of first clay win was quite something - Korda was on the rope…

Some of the most spectacular net points have been won on the dirt, expected drop shots and he delivered. Best of all great movement and the baseline shots were working well. Korda really tried to bail out by going big but he could not execute.

Right now Sinner forces players to go big by being so dominant from the baseline…
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
The nature of first clay win was quite something - Korda was on the rope…

Some of the most spectacular net points have been won on the dirt, expected drop shots and he delivered. Best of all great movement and the baseline shots were working well. Korda really tried to bail out by going big but he could not execute.

Right now Sinner forces players to go big by being so dominant from the baseline…
I think that is Korda's go to game , correct me if I am wrong. Result might be similar even if the played on HC or maybe Korda would even gain a game or two. His game is not built for clay yet. But anything can happen. Now Hurkacz is on his 7th straight match win on clay.

If Milos can reach RG QF then its not bad for Korda.
 

NAS

Hall of Fame
Yes more floaters, not great but still decent.
The worst thing about late 2000s and 2010s clay field was that there was no good clay players who used to rank in 10-30 to test big players in early round, wasn't helped by the fact that Spderling and Delpo was injured most of the times.
Here before you say anything I am not talking about Rafa, peak Rafa will win RG even if he has to face Courier, Guga, Borg back to back.

I am generally talking about other players like Fed Or Novak.
But they are coming now, they may never win RG but in early third or fourth round will give good fight, like last year Rune vs Cerundolo in fourth round or Rublev vs Karen.
Like Fokina, Cerundolo, Musetti,Etcheverry, Sonego Or Khachanov, even Tsits sliding down in ranking with Ruud also out of top eight, so we may see good early third round or fourth round match.
I am not saying they are good players, I am saying they can cause early damage.
Like how Zverev was ranked low and met Sinner in fourth round and beat him in us open.
 

CHillTennis

Hall of Fame
Gimplitos dynamics are proving problematic and despite the stats being good on clay (and he should have won RG last year), he's won slams on grass and hard courts. For me Indian Wells is his sweet spot for surface. This burst in level (a really great one) by Sinner will have its equivalents for Rune and Alcaraz in a few years or so, but we won't know the true balance of power until those two players mature. Other threats might emerge, but Super-Sinner is checking all the boxes in a big way. All three are quite you so they will face serve challenges from other top players here and there.

Some more Sinner hype for this thread:

More Sinner hype.
 

CHillTennis

Hall of Fame
Lol. 2004 was a vacuum era. You think Oldassi compares to Djokovic? Roddick was a VERY incomplete player with his poor return game. I'm surprised your not exulting the virtues of Berdych 2004. I've seen some pretty ardent Federistas in my day, but even they won't make such claims.
How many slams were won by a player over the age of 35 in 2004?

I rest my case.
 
His return is scary good and that's why Sinner is so dominant.

I will post a thread later on when I get the time to do it, but this little stretch that he’s had In Miami and now here in Monte Carlo and Indian Wells, other than the last two sets versus Alcaraz, has been close to unprecedented. Tennis at its heart is 50-50 sport, and not supposed to be winning this easily over and over again, holding your serve easily, getting into every other return game, holding serve even when the opponent gets two or three break points, etc.

After today’s match, he is close to a 1.50 dominance ratio for the season and has won more than 56% of all the points played, which is ludicrous.
 
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RS

Bionic Poster
Lol. 2004 was a vacuum era. You think Oldassi compares to Djokovic? Roddick was a VERY incomplete player with his poor return game. I'm surprised your not exulting the virtues of Berdych 2004. I've seen some pretty ardent Federistas in my day, but even they won't make such claims.
Djokovic AO 2020 vs Roddick AO 2004 10 match series?
 
A

ALCARAZWON

Guest
Sinner on hardcourt will never be as great as Federer on clay.
 

CHillTennis

Hall of Fame
So when Sinner 2024 has a better year than Federer 2004 it still won't be betterer?:oops: Perhaps you should lay down some criteria. Sinner is the same age as Federer in 2004 and Djokovic hasn't won a slam this year, so you don't appear to have a case so far.
I have more than a case, as can be seen in this video.

 

Cupcake

Hall of Fame
In the poll I chose 'other'. I got confused by all the choices.

No matter what happens, it will be fun to watch. :)
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Djokovic AO 2020 vs Roddick AO 2004 10 match series?
Djokovic AO 2024 would easily win. I'm slightly trepidatious that Roddick 2004 had a whiff of a return game. I'm pretty sure if Rainer Schüttler could destroy Roddick in 2003 that wounded oldvak in the heavy wind would destroy him as well. Didn't Roddick have to redo his groundstrokes around this time plus switch away from full gut? Anyone playing full gut would go down very hard against a lot of players.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
I have more than a case, as can be seen in this video.

Very nice. You do realize Sinner is 6' 4" tall? Sure he doesn't move quite as well as prime Big 4 (I'll throw in Murray for his movement), but he's three inches taller than Roger Federer. I'm also amazed you say he doesn't have any weapons and yet somehow he's winning 71.5% of his serve points this year. Now being tall is no guarantee of serve improvement (Medvedev's serve has imploded from something nearly unbreakable to a bit of a joke since he changed strings at the start of 2023, and now again going half gut to start 2024), but Sinner is quite young. You'll have to explain how Sinner is winning serve points at this rate without weapons.:unsure:

One could make the Ruud argument (a player who does well on serve, but those numbers drop against top players where his first strikes don't work as well) and that may have some merit. I'd be wary of the eye test on Sinner since he is 6'4" tall. When you compare him to a shorter player it may be deceptive. Sinner's error count against Medevev in Miami was astonishing (I think I've got the match right or might have been Dimitrov.) He seemed to cover the court surprisingly well in Australia all too often punishing any shots that took him wide and opened up the court.

We 100% agree on the stamina thing, but Sinner has been able to mow through the draws in 2024 and show up fresh deep in events. That's only going to get easier now that he's #2 in the world and just has to keep within 700 points of Djokovic through RG in clay points won to get to #1. Djokovic will be getting Alcaraz half of the time. After their Miami match I'm amazed to say that Medvedev looks to be little trouble for Sinner probably on any surface. I'm sure he'd be quite beatable if bloodied, but I don't think it can be done easily. The five set final with Medvedev as only 3:45. I don't think it is possible to make Sinner play a long match (he has way too many weapons.;)) It may not be possible to expose Sinner's stamina going forward.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
This video aged poorly @CHillTennis
As a died in the wool Djokovic hater, even I thought he had Wimbledon and Australia locked up for a few more years, but Sinner and Alcaraz have assaulted his two slam fortresses. I thought Sinner would end up being the weaker of the new three (behind Alcaraz and Rune in the long run), but with his good head to head with Carlos he may do exceptionally well given his recent jump in level.

I'm not sure about Chill's doom saying about the future of tennis since even Tsitsipas draws well. Medvedev is also extremely popular. Even without Alcaraz and Sinner (plus Rune) I'm sure tennis would draw quite well. Zverev is a bit boring beating up on lesser players and Ruud perhaps scares people with all those slam finals. I'm not sure how much Djokovic is holding up the game as he was never anywhere near as popular as Fedal and has been banned quite a bit. Its pretty clear that even Rune is better than the rest of the "NextGen" as far as talent level/potential. Anyone who watches Alcaraz can tell he is an amazing player and I've got relatives who almost never mention tennis interested in him after seeing him at Wimbledon. I would expect tennis to do very well unless the tournaments fall for ITF power play get the Masters 1000s under the ITF umbrella which would be a huge mistake.
 

CHillTennis

Hall of Fame
I'm not interested in going back and forth on Sinner and his potential, other than to say this.

It's very obvious that in the past decade, we've had a few extraordinary players (namely the Big 3) as well as a group of completely incompetent players, who were routinely embarrassed by the rapidly aging Big 3.

This has never happened before in the history of the game. That a group of young players would routinely be dominated by the old guard. To the point, unfortunately, where it was a total joke.

In my opinion, Jannik Sinner was a part of this group.

At least, until the very beginning of this year, when he stepped up his game in Australia.

Djokovic played very poorly and was beaten by Sinner in four sets.

Sinner has been on a roll ever since. And yes, his game is improving.

However, his only competition (apart from Alcaraz) are players who were dominated by Nadal and Djokovic *for many years.*

Djokovic's level in 2024 is clearly worse than it was last year. To be honest, I seriously doubt that Sinner could beat the 2023 version of Djokovic. Even with the way that he is playing right now.

Is he the best player in the world, right now? Yes. Will he get the number one ranking in 2024? Sure I could definitely see that.

But he is playing against a very weak field and we have to keep that in perspective.

Remember this, Rod Laver won the grand slam in 1962. He won it again in 1969. Any historian will tell you that his 1969 grand slam was more impressive than his 1962 CYGS. Why? Because his competition was tougher in 1969.

1968 was the start of the Open era and that made a big difference. Gone were the days of Chuck McKinley winning Wimbledon, while in college at Trinity University.

The same reasoning applies here.
 
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NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
I'm not interested in going back and forth on Sinner and his potential, other than to say this.

It's very obvious that in the past decade, we've had a few extraordinary players (namely the Big 3) as well as a group of completely incompetent players, who were routinely embarrassed by the rapidly aging Big 3.

This has never happened before in the history of the game. That a group of young players would routinely be dominated by the old guard. To the point, unfortunately, where it was a total joke.

In my opinion, Jannik Sinner was a part of this group.

At least, until the very beginning of this year, when he stepped up his game in Australia.

Djokovic played very poorly and was beaten by Sinner in four sets.

Sinner has been on a roll ever since. And yes, his game is improving.

However, his only competition (apart from Alcaraz) are players who were dominated by Nadal and Djokovic *for many years.*

Djokovic's level in 2024 is clearly worse than it was last year. To be honest, I seriously doubt that Sinner could beat the 2023 version of Djokovic. Even with the way that he is playing right now.

Is he the best player in the world, right now? Yes. Will he get the number one ranking in 2024? Sure I could definitely see that.

But he is playing against a very weak field and we have to keep that in perspective.

Remember this, Rod Laver won the grand slam in 1962. He won it again in 1969. Any historian will tell you that his 1969 grand slam was more impressive than his 1962 CYGS. Why? Because his competition was tougher in 1969.

1968 was the start of the Open era and that made a big difference. Gone were the days of Chuck McKinley winning Wimbledon, while in college at Trinity University.

The same reasoning applies here.

You're punishing pre prime Sinner , going by your logic Fed should be discredited since he lost to worse players in his pre prime? ofcourse you're not going to apply the same logic now. At this point you have become irrelevant and a joke
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
[...] a group of young players would routinely be dominated by the old guard. To the point, unfortunately, where it was a total joke.

In my opinion, Jannik Sinner was a part of this group.

At least, until the very beginning of this year, when he stepped up his game in Australia.
Sinner's ascent began in Beijing last year, when he vomited all his fears in a trash can. He beat Medvedev for the first time (who he was previously 0-6 against), and then went on to also beat Djokovic for the first time in the ATP Finals

What he's been doing this year is just him picking up where he left off.
 

socallefty

G.O.A.T.
I think Sinner has reached a career inflection point in terms of confidence similar to Federer in 2003/2004 and Djokovic in 2011. He is going to be a top 3 fixture for a while and consistently make at least the semis of Slams. His game is somewhat versatile across all surfaces and as long as his body holds up, I think he should have some very good years coming up. But he faces more competition than Federer in 2004-2007 and so I expect he will have more 1 or 2 Slams years like Djokovic in 2012-2014 than 3 Slam years coming up.
 

dking68

Legend
I think Sinner has reached a career inflection point in terms of confidence similar to Federer in 2003/2004 and Djokovic in 2011. He is going to be a top 3 fixture for a while and consistently make at least the semis of Slams. His game is somewhat versatile across all surfaces and as long as his body holds up, I think he should have some very good years coming up. But he faces more competition than Federer in 2004-2007 and so I expect he will have more 1 or 2 Slams years like Djokovic in 2012-2014 than 3 Slam years coming up.
Top 2. He will stay ahead of Djokovic when he passes him post RG til the day he retires

Second correction - *semis to Slam wins
 

xFedal

Legend
Roughly. The biggest tell tale is the jump in return numbers with most players and this happened for Sinner. The surprise is the serve on top of it. The serve has obviously been improving, but the obvious movement improvement is probably helping the serve numbers of course as well. I'd argue it wasn't quite all together at the end of last year, but we can check the numbers... Sinner starting with Beijing until end of last year was 53.5% points won. 2024 he's 55.9%. So by my metrics (return points jumping) his prime did not start until the beginning of this year. I'd also peg Nadal (based on hard court numbers) as 2010 as the start of his prime which is obviously wrong for clay. Djokovic would have been 2011.
TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
[x] Time Span: 2024
24-1 (96%)​
3-1 (75%)​
8.2%​
61.7%​
79.5%​
59.6%​
93.8%​
71.9%​
32.4%​
42.0%​
56.2%​
1.49​

sinners stats for 2024, superior to Any of Peak Feds or Peak Nole yearly stats. Just look at the serving numbers and return numbers, 56.2% total points, match win loss is 96%, set win loss is 87.9%, games won loss is 63.1%. Serving like a peak Karloviv with 93.8% serving games won, and at the same time returning serve better than peak Federer at 32.4%.
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
[x] Time Span: 2024
24-1 (96%)​
3-1 (75%)​
8.2%​
61.7%​
79.5%​
59.6%​
93.8%​
71.9%​
32.4%​
42.0%​
56.2%​
1.49​

sinners stats for 2024, superior to Any of Peak Feds or Peak Nole yearly stats. Just look at the serving numbers and return numbers, 56.2% total points, match win loss is 96%, set win loss is 87.9%, games won loss is 63.1%. Serving like a peak Karloviv with 93.8% serving games won, and at the same time returning serve better than peak Federer at 32.4%.

Good to see @Meles back and going strong with the new gen hype trains! I think this time there is some real merit and justification to it (as opposed to the Thiems and Zverevs of this world...)

Sinner has been a real phenomenon so far this year, it's undeniable that he's on a roll and exciting to see where he can go next. The pieces have come together pretty well and I've been impressed with the serve.
However, the key question that needs to be answered is - can he sustain this through to the end of the season? If yes that bodes extremely well. A 3-Slam year would officially signal a new era of course, or splitting Slams with Carlos. He gets elevated into that conversation of top tier greats immediately

If that does happen, can he sustain it into 2025? And 2026 / 27? At that point we would start drawing out the Federer / Djokovic dominance parallels
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
Very nice. You do realize Sinner is 6' 4" tall? Sure he doesn't move quite as well as prime Big 4 (I'll throw in Murray for his movement), but he's three inches taller than Roger Federer. I'm also amazed you say he doesn't have any weapons and yet somehow he's winning 71.5% of his serve points this year. Now being tall is no guarantee of serve improvement (Medvedev's serve has imploded from something nearly unbreakable to a bit of a joke since he changed strings at the start of 2023, and now again going half gut to start 2024), but Sinner is quite young. You'll have to explain how Sinner is winning serve points at this rate without weapons.:unsure:

One could make the Ruud argument (a player who does well on serve, but those numbers drop against top players where his first strikes don't work as well) and that may have some merit. I'd be wary of the eye test on Sinner since he is 6'4" tall. When you compare him to a shorter player it may be deceptive. Sinner's error count against Medevev in Miami was astonishing (I think I've got the match right or might have been Dimitrov.) He seemed to cover the court surprisingly well in Australia all too often punishing any shots that took him wide and opened up the court.

We 100% agree on the stamina thing, but Sinner has been able to mow through the draws in 2024 and show up fresh deep in events. That's only going to get easier now that he's #2 in the world and just has to keep within 700 points of Djokovic through RG in clay points won to get to #1. Djokovic will be getting Alcaraz half of the time. After their Miami match I'm amazed to say that Medvedev looks to be little trouble for Sinner probably on any surface. I'm sure he'd be quite beatable if bloodied, but I don't think it can be done easily. The five set final with Medvedev as only 3:45. I don't think it is possible to make Sinner play a long match (he has way too many weapons.;)) It may not be possible to expose Sinner's stamina going forward.

Good takes in general, his physique is very deceptive and difficult to map to the effectiveness of his game, which is very high at the moment.
I will say this - if Sinner wins another Slam this year, he WILL take over the #1 spot. And frankly that should be the expectation at this point...

I dislike the Big 3 comparisons as a general rule, it puts a lot of unnecessary pressure on players in their formative years. But if we see 2024-2025 seasons both going completely the way of Sinner (I'm thinking 3-4 Slams and 4-5 Masters at least), then we're in for a real treat.
And there's Carlos Alcaraz of course. My suspicion is he may have the higher ceiling but not be as consistent - the pieces are all there but have not been put together cleanly. Remarkable achievements for his age already
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Don't let the eye test deceive you; much of the Federer mystique was his new found mastery of poly on faster surfaces while some of his top competition was still using gut.
I guess that's why he lost the last 3 matches with Hewitt pre-2004.
 

CHillTennis

Hall of Fame
You're punishing pre prime Sinner , going by your logic Fed should be discredited since he lost to worse players in his pre prime? ofcourse you're not going to apply the same logic now. At this point you have become irrelevant and a joke
If I'm irrelevant then why do you feel the need to reply to my comments?
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
If I'm irrelevant then why do you feel the need to reply to my comments?
The prime of a tennis player begins at 22 and ends at 28, 29 years old.
The peak of the great tennis players is between 24 and 27 years old, as a general rule.
8-B
 
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