Here is how I see it. Djokovic struggles the most out of the big 3 when facing the top NextGen players. His game relies on his rock solid baseline which works well against Fedal due to his physical advantage over these 2 (6 years younger than Roger and more injury-free than Rafa). The Top NextGen players, on the other hand, are all great baseliners and some are even better than Novak. When he cant outlast the young blood behind the baseline, which is growing to be more and more the case, there’s not much more left in his weaponry to get ease points. Nadal has his lefty topspin forehand, Federer has his serve and forehand combo, and both of them can serve and volley quite effectively when needed. It will only become more and more difficult for Djokoivc, I think next year he will be defeated at least once by Medvedev/Tsitsipas/Thiem/etc. in hard court Grand Slams
Again a good post. I partially agree with the hypothesis.Yes, Novak can outlast Fed and Nadal as he is fitter and younger. He is also thinner so has less wear and tear.
But against Next Gen, You talk as if Novak has NO weapons. His serve is deadly these days. His change of direction on groundies is the best in the history of tennis. He BH DTL and ROS is best in the history of tennis. His movement and flexibility is also among the best ever.
Look there is a difference between best of 3 and best of 5 slams. In best of 5 usually the better player wins. Except Medvedev, none of the next gen HAS been able to sustain their best tennis in best of 5. The records from Zverev and TsiTsipas in slams are pathetic. Consider this: In the last 2 years Novak has ONLY lost to peaking Thiem on clay and Stanimal.
Until one of the next gen ACTUALLY beats Novak, I will say it is NOT possible. People made a lot of noise about Agut. He beat Novak twice in best of 3 matches. Look what happened in their Wimbledon match. So let's see, but I don't see any next gen (Excluding Medvedev) challenging Novak at the slam level. As I said before, tennis in the next 3-5 years will be defined by the Novak-Medvedev rivalry. Rest of the next gen won't win anything IMO.