Djokovic Murray h2h on medium+ speed HC

[abmk]

Djokovic Murray h2h on medium+ speed HC

Event: Winner

Madrid 06: Djokovic
Canada 08: Murray
Cincy 08: Murray
Cincy 11: Murray
Dubai 12: Murray
US Open 12: Murray
Shanghai 12: Djokovic
YEC 12(?): Djokovic
US Open 14: Djokovic
Beijing 14: Djokovic
Canada 15: Murray
Shanghai 15: Djokovic
Paris 15(?): Djokovic
YEC 16: Murray

So h2h 7-5 to 7-7 to Murray on medium+ HC
YEC and Paris were slower in 11-15 period. So questionable if they should be included here. YEC was sped up in 16.

H2H on hard is 20-8 To Djokovic

So Djokovic's ownage on slower HC is absolute at 12-1 to 14-1 (only loss in IW 09)
slower HC = AO/IW/Miami/Doha and slower YEC/Paris in 11 to 15(?)

But speed up things on a HC and scenario changes significantly.

Murray had the clear edge before Shanghai 12. Djokovic barely snuck through that one saving MPs. that changed things around a bit. Also Djokovic got to face 14 Murray twice in this scenario, which helped him in this h2h.

 

[weakera]

Ok, what it tells?

 

[TheFifthSet]

Murray admittedly does fare better than one would expect, but most of these matches weren't that significant (in the grand scheme of things), for both of them...and Murray's biggest win was a medium/fast-court triumph in name only. The play was so wind-swept that they combined to hit 47 winners to 130 UE's off the ground...that's not a fast court match. It's hardly even tennis.

'11 Cincy Djoko was semi-tanking/injured/putting spring '18 Djoko to shame with his play (7 W's/29 UFE's off the ground)...not a very impressive win.

Summer HC '08, Dubai '12 and Canada '15 are good wins against a passably good Djoko (and '08 Cincy is debatable, as while he was in good pre-match form Djokovic was spraying HARD in the F). But precious few of their meetings in these venues occurred when both were in good form (same applies to Djoko's wins, to be fair). Not as much the case on slower courts.

 

[RS]

Murray was pretty much even vs Djokovic in the 12-13 H2H too.

MurrayGoat

 

[RS]

Murray is very good on faster surfaces anyway. One just needs to look at how he performs at Shanghai

 

[Fabresque]

Federer fans are desperate to make Murray out like he was some sort of god because he was spanking their boy from 2006-2009. Hilarious cope.

 

[dking68]

Federer fans are desperate to make Murray out like he was some sort of god because he was spanking their boy from 2006-2009. Hilarious cope.

Took him 25.5 years to win a slam. Federer was a double digit slam champion at that age

 

[abmk]

Murray admittedly does fare better than one would expect, but most of these matches weren't that significant (in the grand scheme of things), for both of them...and Murray's biggest win was a medium/fast-court triumph in name only. The play was so wind-swept that they combined to hit 47 winners to 130 UE's off the ground...that's not a fast court match. It's hardly even tennis.

'11 Cincy Djoko was semi-tanking/injured/putting spring '18 Djoko to shame with his play (7 W's/29 UFE's off the ground)...not a very impressive win.

Summer HC '08, Dubai '12 and Canada '15 are good wins against a passably good Djoko (and '08 Cincy is debatable, as while he was in good pre-match form Djokovic was spraying HARD in the F). But precious few of their meetings in these venues occurred when both were in good form (same applies to Djoko's wins, to be fair). Not as much the case on slower courts.

I see your point about USO 12 final, but I have them at 71 winners to 121 UEs (corrected) combined overall. Not a good idea to remove winners on serve or at the net. That reduces stats for every match.

also its 95 winners+errors forced to 56 UEs for Murray
99 winners+errors forced to 65 UEs for Djoko

which is about meh quality considering their defence.

Match Statistics | Scores and Stats | 2012 US Open Official Site - A USTA Event

Follow Live Scores for all matches at the 2012 US Open Tennis Championships in Real-Time.

web.archive.org

Murray also made Djoko look worse on faster surfaces with counter-punching and use of slice (when it stays lower)

 

[BorgTheGOAT]

I see your point about USO 12 final, but I have them at 71 winners to 111 UEs combined overall. Not a good idea to remove winners on serve or at the net. That reduces stats for every match.

also its 95 winners+errors forced to 56 UEs for Murray
99 winners+errors forced to 65 UEs for Djoko

The unforced errors for each of them add up to 121, so close to the 130.

 

[abmk]

The unforced errors for each of them add up to 121, so close to the 130.

yeah, my bad. Its 121, not 111. Corrected.

 

[Mainad]

Murray is very good on faster surfaces anyway. One just needs to look at how he performs at Shanghai

Still cannot think about that 2012 final without wincing. I feel so much was riding on it but Murray let it slip through his fingers and lost the chance to keep up the psychological pressure on Djokovic following the US Open win!!

 

[Tennfan123]

I’m so glad that phase is all over.

 

[abmk]

The unforced errors for each of them add up to 121, so close to the 130.

minus the DFs, Its 130 UEs from TA
its 139 total on TA total including the DFs
121 total including DFs per official stats.

that's a 18 UEs difference, not insignificant

 

[RS]

Makes sense. On a slower HC Murray would have to rally more and it was a common theme it would be even for 1 or 2 or 2.5 sets them Djokovic takes over.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Cherry-picking at its finest. Sadk becoming increasingly basic with each passing month on display.

 

[ND-13]

Please don't remind me of this matchup... Some of the worst AO pushing tennis comes top of my mind.

 

[fedfan24]

Please don't remind me of this matchup... Some of the worst AO pushing tennis comes top of my mind.

those 2015-2016 Murrovic battles

 

[mike danny]

Federer fans are desperate to make Murray out like he was some sort of god because he was spanking their boy from 2006-2009. Hilarious cope.

Actually, if you look through the posting history, you'll find that it's Djokovic fans who overrate Murray more than Fed fans.

 

[Kralingen]

Murray is actually a bit underrated now I feel.

 

[RS]

2011 Djokovic and 2015 Djokovic loses 4/10 times to 2012 Murray on medium + surfaces confirmed

 

[TheFifthSet]

I see your point about USO 12 final, but I have them at 71 winners to 121 UEs (corrected) combined overall. Not a good idea to remove winners on serve or at the net. That reduces stats for every match.

also its 95 winners+errors forced to 56 UEs for Murray
99 winners+errors forced to 65 UEs for Djoko

which is about meh quality considering their defence.

Match Statistics | Scores and Stats | 2012 US Open Official Site - A USTA Event

Follow Live Scores for all matches at the 2012 US Open Tennis Championships in Real-Time.

web.archive.org

Murray also made Djoko look worse on faster surfaces with counter-punching and use of slice (when it stays lower)

It's not meant to be holistic, mainly demonstrating that such figures from these two when they're in even partly good form would be unthinkable on a court that truly "played" quick. And I trust TA more than official figures in the context of this discussion, because while they may be failing to adjust for how the wind is "forcing" some of these errors, the uniform standard just adds to my point about how key the wind's influence was.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Murray is actually a bit underrated now I feel.

His trajectory from overrated to underrated has been Jeter-like.

In fairness to his early proponents, it was logical to think in '09 that he could've been the next dominant player. It all hinged on him fine-tuning the second serve and forehand. Ultimately neither stroke improved enough, but the rest of his game was so strong that he was so close yet so far away at the same time.

'09 Murray had a better rally backhand than '09 Nadal or Fed, a better return (granted only slightly better than Fed's), similarly good D on non-clay, the second best first serve of the three, was younger than Fed, didn't have Rafa's injury history and Djoko regressed from the level he reached in '08. He also passed a lot better in his younger days than Lendlrray did. Murray's passing shots were widely discussed on these boards back then.

 

[abmk]

It's not meant to be holistic, mainly demonstrating that such figures from these two when they're in even partly good form would be unthinkable on a court that truly "played" quick. And I trust TA more than official figures in the context of this discussion, because while they may be failing to adjust for how the wind is "forcing" some of these errors, the uniform standard just adds to my point about how key the wind's influence was.

wouldn't it be the other way around.
wind means some of those errors are forced by the wind, not unforced.
So you'd think a lower count is more likely to be accurate.
In any case, official stats are usually more accurate TA ones as far as UEs go.

my point is ->
95 winners+errors forced to 56 UEs for Murray
99 winners+errors forced to 65 UEs for Djoko

is a more accurate representation than 47 winners to 130 UEs off the ground (per TA)
shouldn't be removing service related points
and should obviously consider errors forced.

I do agree on the effect of the wind wrt to speed of court, but I don't think match was bad to put a stat like 47 winners to 130 UEs off the ground (I'd say UEs is less than that) as representative.

 

[RS]

Cherry-picking at its finest. Sadk becoming increasingly basic with each passing month on display.

This thread isn't really that bad.

 

[TheFifthSet]

wouldn't it be the other way around.
wind means some of those errors are forced by the wind, not unforced.

Ah but that's my point, hence why I say "in the context of the discussion". Absent the wind, these misses would be unforced if they still occurred. With it, many of them are at least semi-forced. The "incorrect" version is, ironically, more germane to the discussion. The wind made any talk of it being a fast court in normal conditions moot.

 

[metsman]

His trajectory from overrated to underrated has been Jeter-like.

In fairness to his early proponents, it was logical to think in '09 that he could've been the next dominant player. It all hinged on him fine-tuning the second serve and forehand. Ultimately neither stroke improved enough, but the rest of his game was so strong that he was so close yet so far away at the same time.

'09 Murray had a better rally backhand than '09 Nadal or Fed, a better return (granted only slightly better than Fed's), similarly good D on non-clay, the second best first serve of the three, was younger than Fed, didn't have Rafa's injury history and Djoko regressed from the level he reached in '08. He also passed a lot better in his younger days than Lendlrray did. Murray's passing shots were widely discussed on these boards back then.

Murray is a fundamentally worse mover than any of the big 3, that's his real problem, and as a result doesn't time the ball nearly as well and pose the same pressure off the ground. None of his shots are really elite as a result, even his BH (Federer would never lose sleep about going BH to BH with him, then redirect or slice, kill with the FH, made a clinic out of this in 2010 AO). He was heavily blown out of proportion by the desperate British media, obviously far from the first time that's happened.

As to the topic of this thread, obviously Djokovic is far worse on medium/fast HC vs slower ones, this is a particularly good way of highlighting that. I think the gap in relative level between the HC conditions is larger than Fed (obviously) but also Agassi, Sampras, and Nadal. He's looked quite pedestrian on medium+ (in his career, mostly medium) HC, honestly maybe even a majority of the time.

 

[RS]

Murray is a fundamentally worse mover than any of the big 3, that's his real problem, and as a result doesn't time the ball nearly as well and pose the same pressure off the ground. None of his shots are really elite as a result. He was heavily blown out of proportion by the desperate British media, obviously far from the first time that's happened.

As to the topic of this thread, obviously Djokovic is far worse on medium/fast HC vs slower ones, this is a particularly good way of highlighting that. I think the gap in relative level between the HC conditions is larger than Fed (obviously) but also Agassi, Sampras, and Nadal. He's looked quite pedestrian on medium+ (in his career, mostly medium) HC, honestly maybe even a majority of the time.

If none of Murray's shots are elite how did he make it so far though?

 

[metsman]

If none of Murray's shots are elite how did he make it so far though?

Elite in comparison to the big 3. Obviously compared to the Ferrer/Berdych/Tsongas of the world his consistency, movement, defense is more than enough to carry him through and put him above them consistently.

But of course that's not quite the main reason, we all know the real reason he has 3 slams, instead of being limited to vulturing maybe 1 at the end of his prime.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Murray is a fundamentally worse mover than any of the big 3, that's his real problem, and as a result doesn't time the ball nearly as well and pose the same pressure off the ground. None of his shots are really elite as a result. He was heavily blown out of proportion by the desperate British media, obviously far from the first time that's happened.

Yeah, I kept movement and defence separate to cherry-pick for Murray. Bit of Devil's Advocacy, but at the same time I really do think him being overrated stemmed from the rest of his game not "filling out" to the degree that could've plausibly (or maybe semi-optimistically) been projected back then.

 

[RS]

Elite in comparison to the big 3. Obviously compared to the Ferrer/Berdych/Tsongas of the world his consistency, movement, defense is more than enough to carry him through and put him above them consistently.

But of course that's not quite the main reason, we all know the real reason he has 3 slams, instead of being limited to vulturing maybe 1 at the end of his prime.

Would you say Fedal have a better BH than Murray? It's a interesting take I wouldn't have a way of proving you wrong 100%.

Djokovic made Murray?

 

[metsman]

Yeah, I kept movement and defence separate to cherry-pick for Murray. Bit of Devil's Advocacy, but at the same time I really do think him being overrated stemmed from the rest of his game not "filling out" to the degree that could've plausibly been projected back then.

eh no one really improves their forehand significantly after becoming a top player, and his technique was just not quite there to be really potent with the FH. Honestly Murray did improve his FH quite a bit in 12-13, more than can be expected for most people.
Expecting his 2nd serve to improve was reasonable, but I guess he just had some physical barriers he could never overcome there, and obviously after the back injury it was a complete powder puff.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Elite in comparison to the big 3.

Return and BH? "None" is a stretch imo

 

[metsman]

Would you say Fedal have a better BH than Murray? It's a interesting take I wouldn't have a way of proving you wrong 100%.

Djokovic made Murray?

Peak Federer on a slick court has a 100% better BH than Murray. It may even be better than Djokovic's. Or anyone else's, I remember going into depth about this on another thread.

I don't think Nadal's BH is better than Murray's as a pure stroke, but it can be more potent since he has better footwork, at least when Nadal is playing with the proper confidence/aggressiveness which is rarely on HC.

 

[metsman]

Return and BH? "None" is a stretch imo

Like I said, Federer never remotely feared either of those things. If they were truly elite, he would have.
Federer is a good datapoint because he faced all the other elite return+BH combos in his career.

 

[abmk]

Ah but that's my point, hence why I say "in the context of the discussion". Absent the wind, these misses would be unforced if they still occurred. With it, many of them are at least semi-forced. The "incorrect" version is, ironically, more germane to the discussion. The wind made any talk of it being a fast court in normal conditions moot.

yeah, but the TA guys would put those down as unforced, leading to making it look worse than it was.

 

[abmk]

Yeah, I'd say Murray's BH and return are elite, even with respect to the big 3. better BH than fedal and return similar level to Djoko.

 

[TheFifthSet]

eh no one really improves their forehand significantly after becoming a top player, and his technique was just not quite there to be really potent with the FH. Honestly Murray did improve his FH quite a bit in 12-13, more than can be expected for most people.
Expecting his 2nd serve to improve was reasonable, but I guess he just had some physical barriers he could never overcome there, and obviously after the back injury it was a complete powder puff.

Less room and scope for improvement on the forehand, to be sure, but his second serve was frankly so horrific that even getting to tour-average (or slightly above, I dare say) would've been monumental. It was so bad that frame-of-reference bias made his Lendlrray second serve seem good, when even the best version of it was mediocre.

 

[TheFifthSet]

yeah, but the TA guys would put those down as unforced, leading to making it look worse than it was.

I agree but that's actually why I say it's useful to my point: the vast # of balls that would've been marked down as unforced on a non-windy day lays bare just how little it resembled a fast-court match.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Like I said, Federer never remotely feared either of those things. If they were truly elite, he would have.
Federer is a good datapoint because he faced all the other elite return+BH combos in his career.

It's hard for a zoning Fed to "fear" either when he's so far ahead in the two most important strokes. Doesn't mean they're not elite on their own. How many returns would you put ahead of Murray's in the OE?

 

[abmk]

It's hard for a zoning Fed to "fear" either when he's so far ahead in the two most important strokes. Doesn't mean they're not elite on their own. How many returns would you put ahead of Murray's in the OE?

Connors, Agassi, Djokovic and Hewitt are the only ones with realistic arguments I think.

 

[abmk]

I agree but that's actually why I say it's useful to my point: the vast # of balls that would've been marked down as unforced on a non-windy day lays bare just how little it resembled a fast-court match.

not sure about vast # of balls. Some of them yes.
I agree on wind affecting the match, But my point is TA charting is less accurate than official stats (generally) and the stat you presented is not representative of the quality of the match. It was clearly better and in the middling range.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Connors, Agassi, Djokovic and Hewitt are the only ones with realistic arguments I think.

Yeah that sounds about right.

 

[TheFifthSet]

not sure about vast # of balls. Some of them yes.
I agree on wind affecting the match, But my point is TA charting is less accurate and the stat you presented is not representative of the quality of the match. It was clearly better and in the middling range.

I don't think it was a low-quality match when accounting for wind, or even that the counts are accurate under a "fairer" reading. More so that they're not the sort of #'s you'd see in a decent-quality fast court match. For all intents and purposes it played more like a slow court encounter

 

[abmk]

I don't even think it was a bad quality match when accounting for wind, or even that the counts are accurate under a "fairer" reading. Just not the sort of #'s you'd see in a decent-quality fast court match.

fair enough.

 

[Martin J]

Yeah, Murray is a very tough opponent for Novak on fast(er) HC and grass for various reasons (flat strokes, great return, ability to grind endlessly, redirect his opponent's pace, which is particularly effective on a faster surface and mix up his game).
His 6-1 H2H vs Djokovic at Canada/Cincinnati/USO (where the only win that Djoko scored, the 2014 USO, was far from impressive as he was still trying to regain his pre-surgery form and was having an average year overall) is an indicator of how tough of a challenge he represents, which some people ignore for unknown reasons. Just compare his score vs him at the AO/IW/Miami (where the conditions are/were generally slower), it's a brutal domination by Novak.

 

[RS]

Is Murray underrated on medium to medium fast HC courts but overrated at AO and slow HC ?

 

[abmk]

Is Murray underrated on medium to medium fast HC courts but overrated at AO and slow HC ?

partly his fault due to under-performance at USO. (Cilic in 09, pre-prime Wawa in 10, Anderson in 15, Nishi in 16 - even if exclude 13 loss in straights to Wawa)

 

[Kralingen]

His trajectory from overrated to underrated has been Jeter-like.

In fairness to his early proponents, it was logical to think in '09 that he could've been the next dominant player. It all hinged on him fine-tuning the second serve and forehand. Ultimately neither stroke improved enough, but the rest of his game was so strong that he was so close yet so far away at the same time.

'09 Murray had a better rally backhand than '09 Nadal or Fed, a better return (granted only slightly better than Fed's), similarly good D on non-clay, the second best first serve of the three, was younger than Fed, didn't have Rafa's injury history and Djoko regressed from the level he reached in '08. He also passed a lot better in his younger days than Lendlrray did. Murray's passing shots were widely discussed on these boards back then.

I also think the surfaces slowing down to ungodly degree hurt him more than people realize.

edit: just saw @Martin J making the same point above.

The ability to dictate with the FH and play as an aggressive baseliner generating his own attacks is something which Djokovic does massively better than Murray - but on the quicker surfaces this is hidden (as it is with Medvedev, for example). But more than anything it was the injuries. Post 13 Murray was a shell of the Tokyo 11 - Wim 13 peak Lendlray, his results were still OK but his ceiling and athleticism were severely diminished. I think in 12-13 the difference between him and Djoker was miniscule on the quicker surfaces and he had shown his competence at blowing a mediocre Nadal off the court at HC Slams. Even got an AO win over a somewhat OK Fed in 2013.

 

[metsman]

It's hard for a zoning Fed to "fear" either when he's so far ahead in the two most important strokes. Doesn't mean they're not elite on their own. How many returns would you put ahead of Murray's in the OE?

At their peaks, at least 7, and maybe even closer to 10 depending on the conditions. Murray gets a lot of balls back but he doesn't do much damage off the return, plain and simple. Setting up serve+1 shop is very easy against Murray, he sweetly times very few returns (or really any shots, period). Murray's returning reputation is built around a bunch of heroics against useless serve bots and consistently winning 45% of return points against Dudi Sela in the 2nd round.

 

[metsman]

Even got an AO win over a somewhat OK Fed in 2013.

Come again?

Federer was somewhat ok in the QF. He was a level down in movement and consistency in the SF, served like garbage, and then had a negative gas tank in the 5th set. He was somewhat ok in 1 of the 5 sets in the SF, mediocre in 2 of them, mediocre but scrappy in one, and horrendous in 1.

A "somewhat Ok" QF Fed may have beaten Murray in the SF, if he could have brought a high level for long enough in the 5th like he did against Tsonga, which would have been utterly embarrassing, for a post-post prime Fed to beat absolute peak Murray on a slower court. To be honest going 5 sets against that version of Fed is somewhat embarrassing as is, Fed was really only able to play one semi decent set out of 5, and he wasn't dynamic by any means in that set.

It's like saying Murray was "somewhat ok" at 14 AO, and a post-post prime Fed with a new racket basically had him whipped in straights before he eased up the gas. Heck just with serve alone, even if he might have struggled off the ground, 14 AO Fed would have given 13 AO Murray all he could handle. 13 AO served like garbage in the QF/SF, likely his back was bothering him.