Race to YE#1 2019

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
It is infact a scenario could happen in rr if nadal plays first and goes undefeated and djokovic loses last match to meet nadal in semi.
Now that I think about it, a Nadal-Djokovic final being winner take all is possible! Nadal just needs to lose a RR match but still win the group.
 

Nadal_King

Hall of Fame
Now that I think about it, a Nadal-Djokovic final being winner take all is possible! Nadal just needs to lose a RR match but still win the group.
Yes that is possible but if there is a nadal in group then it's possible nadal losing a group match and federer winning all 3.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Yes that is possible but if there is a nadal in group then it's possible nadal losing a group match and federer winning all 3.
Yeah, that's the hard part there. Nadal has to lose a match but still be 1st in the group, which means someone goes 0-3 and everyone else goes 2-1 in the group.
 

Nadal_King

Hall of Fame
Yeah, that's the hard part there. Nadal has to lose a match but still be 1st in the group, which means someone goes 0-3 and everyone else goes 2-1 in the group.
But still tomorrow a final has to be played and if shapo wins which is unlikely then it will get hugely in nadal's favour
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
If shapo wins which is unlikely then it will get hugely in nadal's favour
Denis has been utterly destroyed the last two times he played Djoker and won a total of 9 games in two matches. Djokovic also bageled in at the AO this year. His prospects don't look promising, but KK pulled off the stunner in last year's final, so stranger things have happened in tennis.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Assuming Djokovic beats Shapovalov:
Nadal\DjokovicRR (3 losses)SF (2 losses)RR (1 loss)SF (1 loss)SF (0 loss)F (1 loss)F (0 loss)W (1 loss)W (0 loss)
RR (3 losses)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovicDjokovicDjokovic
SF (2 losses)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovicDjokovic
RR (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovic
SF (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovic
SF (0 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovic
F (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovic
F (0 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadal
W (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalXX
W (0 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalXX
 

TennisFan3

Talk Tennis Guru
Denis has been utterly destroyed the last two times he played Djoker and won a total of 9 games in two matches. Djokovic also bageled in at the AO this year. His prospects don't look promising, but KK pulled off the stunner in last year's final, so stranger things have happened in tennis.

I can't believe people who think Denis will beat Novak. You only need to watch their previous matches to know why Novak is a bad matchup for the Canadian.
 

TennisFan3

Talk Tennis Guru
Assuming Nadal is in decent enough shape to actually participate in the WTF and Novak wins Paris, we've got ourselves a battle for YE#1!

With those respective results, Nadal will only lead by 640 points going into the WTF, which is a lead that's surpassable.

Potential Djokovic win scenarios include:
Djokovic WTF final (1000 points) vs Nadal RR loss (200)
Djokovic WTF win (1300 points) vs Nadal semi (600 points)

Nadal wins:
Djokovic WTF final (1000 points) vs Nadal semi (400)
Djokovic semi (600) vs Nadal withdrawal (0)

There's only one scenario where it's out of Novak's hands, and that's if Rafa makes the WTF finals unbeaten. In that case, Nadal ends up as YE#1.
Great Summary. Appreciate all the work with the different scenarios.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Assuming Djokovic beats Shapovalov:
Nadal\DjokovicRR (3 losses)SF (2 losses)RR (1 loss)SF (1 loss)SF (0 loss)F (1 loss)F (0 loss)W (1 loss)W (0 loss)
RR (3 losses)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovicDjokovicDjokovic
SF (2 losses)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovicDjokovic
RR (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovic
SF (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovic
SF (0 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovic
F (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovic
F (0 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadal
W (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalXX
W (0 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalXX

Excellent. This is every possible scenario.
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
Assuming Djokovic beats Shapovalov:
Nadal\DjokovicRR (3 losses)SF (2 losses)RR (1 loss)SF (1 loss)SF (0 loss)F (1 loss)F (0 loss)W (1 loss)W (0 loss)
RR (3 losses)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovicDjokovicDjokovic
SF (2 losses)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovicDjokovic
RR (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovic
SF (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovic
SF (0 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovic
F (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovic
F (0 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadal
W (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalXX
W (0 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalXX

Huh? Decipher these Heiroglyphics.
 
Huh? Decipher these Heiroglyphics.

Horizontally are Djokovic's hypothetical results.
Vertically are Nadal's hypothetical results.

You can see at each stage where both results cross what is the outcome for the final YE#1

For example, take the second horizontal position for Djokovic (SF 2 losses): it means that Djokovic will reach the SF and will post 2 losses (one in the RR stage, one in the SF). In that case there is no scenario where Nadal isn't an YE #1, which is why everywhere "Nadal" is listed in the column.

:cool:
 
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Sentinel

Bionic Poster
Assuming Djokovic beats Shapovalov:
Nadal\DjokovicRR (3 losses)SF (2 losses)RR (1 loss)SF (1 loss)SF (0 loss)F (1 loss)F (0 loss)W (1 loss)W (0 loss)
RR (3 losses)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovicDjokovicDjokovic
SF (2 losses)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovicDjokovic
RR (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovic
SF (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovic
SF (0 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovicDjokovic
F (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalDjokovic
F (0 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadal
W (1 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalXX
W (0 loss)NadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalNadalXX
So Nole has to reach the final at the very least.
And since Nadal is bound to win at least one match, so Nole has to win WTF to have a chance of #1.
 
D

Deleted member 763691

Guest
A bigger upset than Denis beating Nole would be Rafa playing WTF at this point, imo
Rafa would have played today if there was no London to prepare for.
Believe me he's played with far worse pain than a minor stomach strain.
In fact, Rafa was far more injured in the 2017 World Tour Finals, and still played and fought like crazy!
Rafa only withdrew yesterday because he has to play London shortly, so he doesn't want the strain to get any worse before London.
I bet you your/my TalkTennis account that Rafa will play London :)
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
So Nole has to reach the final at the very least.
And since Nadal is bound to win at least one match, so Nole has to win WTF to have a chance of #1.
More or less. He can reach the final without a RR loss if Nadal ends up winning just 1 match, but yeah - any less than a win and Djokovic's chances go down drastically.
 

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
Rafa would have played today if there was no London to prepare for.
Believe me he's played with far worse pain than a minor stomach strain.
In fact, Rafa was far more injured in the 2017 World Tour Finals, and still played and fought like crazy!
Rafa only withdrew yesterday because he has to play London shortly, so he doesn't want the strain to get any worse before London.
I bet you your/my TalkTennis account that Rafa will play London :)

Rafa's withdrawal is not about playing through pain, it's about being fresh as a daisy for Australia.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Many twists and turns have led to this! The final ascent to the throne for either Rafa or Nole!

If Djokovic wins each of his remaining 3 matches, he ends the year as #1.
If Djokovic fails to win one, Nadal stays #1 to the end of the year.
 

Yugram

Legend
If Rafa wins the USO and can pull semis in Paris it will take a monstrous effort from Djokovic to claim YE1.

That was on point.

Weird, I remember replying to @TripleATeam on YE#1 topic back in September, but I guess it was some other thread. My take was, that considering how unstable Djokovic was all season, there is no sense to assume he can win everything during the Fall season. For a moment we got glimpse of Ultron, but then it faded.

Controversial season for Novak. Apart from 2 monumental Slam wins (each in a bit different way) he wasn’t that much of a threat and lost to the likes of Kohlschreiber and Bautista Agut. And what was that today from Novak? He was playing like against Londero at USO when he was, well, injured.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
That was on point.

Weird, I remember replying to @TripleATeam on YE#1 topic back in September, but I guess it was some other thread. My take was, that considering how unstable Djokovic was all season, there is no sense to assume he can win everything during the Fall season. For a moment we got glimpse of Ultron, but then it faded.

Controversial season for Novak. Apart from 2 monumental Slam wins (each in a bit different way) he wasn’t that much of a threat and lost to the likes of Kohlschreiber and Bautista Agut. And what was that today from Novak? He was playing like against Londero at USO when he was, well, injured.
It wasn't even that monstrous - all he really had to do was to win 3 more matches
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Nothing to say but great job on a race well run! Congrats to Nadal and his fans - 5 YE#1s to tie the rest of the big 3, as well as 10 years being #1 sometime during the year! Well done to both players, and I look forward to a similar thread next year. :)
 
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