Here is another POV. The technology of rackets continues to improve. It's not enough to have the latest shoes, to slide better on HCs.
Fed made a decision to change rackets about a year and a half ago. But initially he had to back away from the new racket. He didn't have enough time to adjust.
Rafa changed rackets sometime in the spring, saying he needed more easy power. Then he too backed off because he could not control the new racket.
Tonight he hit one forehand at 96 mph, but Fognini was winning the battle of pace.
I'd wager the shots Rafa was hitting tonight would have blasted most people off the court even a few years ago. The game is changing.
I suspect he will be experimenting again with another racket, but it's going to take time to make the adjustment.
If he doesn't do this, he simply won't be able to compete in 2015 and 2016. For him to continue
using his old racket now is a bit like continuing to play with a wooden racket after everyone else has moved on.
In 2012 Fed won 92% of his service games on hardcourts. In 2004 it was the same, 92. In 2005 it was 91. 91 in 2006. 91 in 2007. It's 94 this year. I think a huge amount of that is because of the racket. He gambled, and it paid off.
Watch to see if Nadal makes a racket change between now and the next FO...