2021 YE #1 Race: Daniil vs. Novak

[BGod]

Margin is 1,990 with Novak leading.

Indian Wells & Paris Masters worth 2k combined.

Vienna/Basel for 500.

WTF being 1,500 if undefeated.

Obviously still uphill for Medvedev but Djokovic likely to skip Indian Wells at least and then who knows. I'm sure he'd want the consolation of a hard to beat 7th YE.

 

[Djokodalerer31]

Who the hell told you he'll skeep IW?!...Where did you get that info?...

 

[pj80]

Margin is 1,990 with Novak leading.

Indian Wells & Shanghai Masters worth 2k combined.

Vienna/Basel for 500.

WTF being 1,500 if undefeated.

Obviously still uphill for Medvedev but Djokovic likely to skip Indian Wells at least and then who knows. I'm sure he'd want the consolation of a hard to beat 7th YE.

there will be no Shanghai Masters

 

[UnforcedTerror]

Shanghai is cancelled and Djokovic to skip Indian Wells most likely.

Med has a chance be he needs to win everything.

 

[Cortana]

As he lost the USO his next goal will be to get the YE#1. Don't see him skipping any tournament till the end of the year.

 

[James P]

Slight chance if Novak skips tournaments, but I don't think he will.

 

[Kralingen]

I think Med needs to win the YEC to do it.

 

[N01E]

there will be no Shanghai Masters

Yes, but there's still Bercy.

 

[RaulRamirez]

I'd love to see him hang on and earn his 7th, and while it's not all about "slams", it would be weird to win 3 plus a final and not get it.

We'll see if his heart is into it.

 

[egrorian]

How Djokovic isn't certain to be YE#1 with 3 Slams and a Slam R/U this year is beyond me.

 

[Cortana]

How Djokovic isn't certain to be YE#1 with 3 Slams and a Slam R/U this year is beyond me.

Yeah that's 7'200 ATP points alone.

 

[80s New Wave]

How Djokovic isn't certain to be YE#1 with 3 Slams and a Slam R/U this year is beyond me.

That's what I was thinking. How is this even possible?

 

[gjm127]

I think Novak will skip one of the two. He just lost his only chance at winning CYGS and claiming clear GOAT status, doesn't care much about YE#1 at this point. Will look at recuperating and setting up for AO22.

 

[Mediterranean Might]

Not impossible for Medvedev, but I think the ask is too big this year. Novak should hold onto this one

 

[James P]

Yeah that's 7'200 ATP points alone.

Runner up at a masters (600) and winner of a 250 as well.

But, you have up to 18 opportunities to put points on the board, and Medvedev has played more. This is only Novak's 9th event to Daniil's 14th.

 

[kishnabe]

Novak should take a sabbatical and come back for 2022 AO.

 

[Rudiiii]

Margin is 1,990 with Novak leading.

Indian Wells & Shanghai Masters worth 2k combined.

Vienna/Basel for 500.

WTF being 1,500 if undefeated.

Obviously still uphill for Medvedev but Djokovic likely to skip Indian Wells at least and then who knows. I'm sure he'd want the consolation of a hard to beat 7th YE.

Shangai won't be held, I think that one semi of master and semi at YEC is enough for Djokovic at this point, only if MED goes red and literally dusts opponents in every match

 

[James P]

Yeah, it'd have to be a Murray '16 finish with Novak faltering and helping him for it to pan out.

 

[Amen786]

there will be no Shanghai Masters

Why??

 

[pj80]

Why??

all China events have been cancelled because of covid

 

[NonP]

Novak is already the YE #1. No batch of extra titles overrides a margin of 2 Slams.

He's now the co-OE leader with Pistol at 7 total (an FYI 4 U jokers: '99 goes to Pete due to his dominance over Dre). In fact Gonzales is the only one who can be said to have finished more years as the world #1. I suspect this was the last year of dominance for Nole, but we'll see.

 

[beltsman]

If Djokovic burns himself out for YE1 he woke find AO to be very tough. Smarter to take a break. He might already be burnt out.

 

[Blahovic]

I don't think Djokovic will play again this year.

 

[BGod]

there will be no Shanghai Masters

I meant Paris, brain fart corrected.

How Djokovic isn't certain to be YE#1 with 3 Slams and a Slam R/U this year is beyond me.

That's what I was thinking. How is this even possible?

Novak has hardly played outside the Slams skipping Miami, MC, Madrid, Canada and Cincy Masters playing just two 250s in Serbia along with Rome where he made Final.

Medvedev meanwhile has at least 1 Slam then another Final with R16 & QF exits along with a Masters, SF & QF with some lower tournaments.

Yeah, it'd have to be a Murray '16 finish with Novak faltering and helping him for it to pan out.

For sure, but realistically I can see Novak only playing Paris & WTF. If he wanted to pull a Roger/Rafa to kind of secure #1 he could throw in Vienna. Assuming the worst, Medvedev wins IW & at least with Novak at Paris he goes a step further but not the title (F>SF) while winning 1 of the Russian 250s. That makes it a sub 700 difference. Now if Med won WTF clean he'd be ahead 800+ forcing Novak to at least make final. If Novak lost in SF there at 2 wins I'm RR Medvedev could even get #1 with a 2-1 RR or doing well at Vienna.

I think pressure would certainly be on if Daniil wins IW because that at least makes Novak play more.

 

[Bubcay]

Djokovic was not listed as playing the IW a few days ago, but as of now - he is. So, aiming for the YE#1 for sure.

 

[N01E]

I hope that "see you soon" meant IW. Winning 1 big title would probably do it, but Murray '16 run is a possibility. Daniil played a lot this year (not as much as Tsitsipas though) and could have already been in the lead without changing his or Novak's slam results. A lot will depend on the field. Who knows, maybe

 

[BGod]

Djokovic was not listed as playing the IW a few days ago, but as of now - he is. So, aiming for the YE#1 for sure.

It just appears odd because Medvedev is playing Laver Cup in Boston and therefore has something to do in the interim and is young without kids. Novak was apparently not playing LC and with family is going to stay state side for a month why? He has his cushion.

 

[Bubcay]

It just appears odd because Medvedev is playing Laver Cup in Boston and therefore has something to do in the interim and is young without kids. Novak was apparently not playing LC and with family is going to stay state side for a month why? He has his cushion.

He might go back to Europe and come back. It is just an overnight flight. Or maybe bring the rest of his family to the US, who knows. He probably does not want to leave it to chance and wants to seal the deal early.

 

[BGod]

He might go back to Europe and come back. It is just an overnight flight. Or maybe bring the rest of his family to the US, who knows. He probably does not want to leave it to chance and wants to seal the deal early.

He has Vienna & Paris, which if he won both would seal it for him without playing WTF.

 

[Bubcay]

He has Vienna & Paris, which if he won both would seal it for him without playing WTF.

That would make more sense for sure. I have not expected him to play IW and as I said, he was not listed there a few days ago when I last looked. He has not played a lot of matches this year, so he might go all out and play all the 1000 and 500 tournaments now? Who knows....

 

[Tarkovsky]

Djokovic would be a fool if he loses this YE#1 now he's got it in his pocket, so next year he doesn't have to worry about it and can solely concentrate on Slams and some Masters

 

[James P]

@BGod, Daniil basically confirmed his schedule for the rest of the season is Laver, IW, Paris, and the ATP Finals. Nothing else. Isn't playing Vienna (or St Petersburg).

 

[BGod]

@BGod, Daniil basically confirmed his schedule for the rest of the season is Laver, IW, Paris, and the ATP Finals. Nothing else. Isn't playing Vienna (or St Petersburg).

Okay and do you really believe he'll stick with that for true if he wins IW with Novak skipping and he's 990 behind? I could even see them both playing Vienna (or Med playing Petersburg).

In a scenario where they only play Paris and Med beats Novak in Final the margin would be 590 and therefore Med would need help from Novak at WTF because beating him there in the final could still put him 90 back for YE and that would suck mightily.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Don't think Novak will play anything till Paris and then play Paris and WTF if he plays even that. The mileage of this year's slams efforts is too much. He is 34+ right now. No need to get injured trying to reach 7th YE no. 1

 

[BeatlesFan]

Who the hell told you he'll skeep IW?!...Where did you get that info?...

I've attended almost every single IW since 1985 when it was the Pilot Pen classic and Joachim Nystrom won it. Word on the street is that Djokovic will NOT play IW and why would he? He probably won't play till the YEC, he's 34 and doesn't need to play IW ever again. Why on earth would he travel from MC to the California low desert to play one event when he's had the year he's had? Not happening.

 

[Amen786]

all China events have been cancelled because of covid

They have way less cases than USA as far as I know.

 

[Lgoel]

If Djokovic is targetting year end no 1, playing multiple tournament he will get the number 1. Only if he goes absent , medevdev will take it

 

[MeatTornado]

I've attended almost every single IW since 1985 when it was the Pilot Pen classic and Joachim Nystrom won it. Word on the street is that Djokovic will NOT play IW and why would he? He probably won't play till the YEC, he's 34 and doesn't need to play IW ever again. Why on earth would he travel from MC to the California low desert to play one event when he's had the year he's had? Not happening.

Novak's team is on the street? Interesting, I thought they'd still be in New York right now.

 

[Federer and Del Potro]

Novak's team is on the street? Interesting, I thought they'd still be in New York right now.

Novak threw them all out on the street after the loss. Rumor from the suite is that Djokovic is rehiring Pepe Imaz.

Can't comment on if that is true but I can confirm they were on the street. Whole big thing. We had a funeral for a Berd-ych

 

[ImmorTAL Big 3]

Until the end of the season Medvedev has 4040 points to drop,Novak only 1990,so this will leave Med at around 6700 and Novak 10 000- i just can t see Med being so powerfull and underwhelming to win 3300 more points compare to Novak

 

[James P]

Until the end of the season Medvedev has 4040 points to drop,Novak only 1990,so this will leave Med at around 6700 and Novak 10 000- i just can t see Med being so powerfull and underwhelming to win 3300 more points compare to Novak

Year End Race has nothing to do with points dropping. It's the points from the beginning of the year. He has to make up 2,000 points. It's definitely a tall order, very likely won't happen, but it is technically still possible. Two masters and ATP Finals on the table alone is 3500 points.

 

[ImmorTAL Big 3]

Year End Race has nothing to do with points dropping. It's the points from the beginning of the year. He has to make up 2,000 points. It's definitely a tall order, very likely won't happen, but it is technically still possible. Two masters and ATP Finals on the table alone is 3500 points.

Yes.But you should not forget that points from 2019 and 2020 tournaments until Canada stay for the ranking.So the 2021 atp points are only relevant of who will qualify for ATP finals,not who will be year end number 1 because the year end number 1 player has points from 2019 and 2020 exemple Novak 500 points from 2019 Madrid

 

[James P]

Yes.But you should not forget that points from 2019 and 2020 tournaments until Canada stay for the ranking.So the 2021 atp points are only relevant of who will qualify for ATP finals,not who will be year end number 1 because the year end number 1 player has points from 2019 and 2020 exemple Novak 500 points from 2019 Madrid

From the ATP:

While the 2021 Year-End FedEx ATP Rankings will continue to potentially include some results from 2019 and 2020 in a player’s rankings breakdown under the "best of" rankings system due to COVID-19, the 2021 Year-End No. 1 will be based off 2021 results alone (i.e., the FedEx ATP Race To Turin) and will continue until the end of the Nitto ATP Finals. This will ensure that the No. 1 accolade accurately reflects the world’s best performer of the 2021 calendar season.

I might be interpreting this wrong, but I don't think I am, bolded for clarity.

 

[ImmorTAL Big 3]

From the ATP:

I might be interpreting this wrong, but I don't think I am, bolded for clarity.

You re right.I haven t seen this article.Thanks.

 

[One]

That means Novak can have more points than Men and finish behind him. Its strange but is right. If they didnt prolong covid ranking protection it wouod have been better.

 

[roysid]

Djokovic has 8300 points this year with an enormous 7200 from slams alone.Medvedev is at 6300.
So unless Novak just quits he will get the no. 1 easily. Of course Medvedev has outside chance. But that will be a shame if 1 slam winner pips over 3 slam winner at the end.

 

[El_Yotamo]

Daniil definitely has a chance, but I don't think Novak will give it up so easily. He knows this is one of his last chances (maybe last) to break the tie with Pete and just like how he ensured the YE#1 last year by playing Vienna et al he may well do something similar this year. Do I think he'll go to Indian Wells? No, he's better off being in Europe throughout October. However, throughout Vienna Paris and Turin he can very likely do just enough to hold on to his YE#1. The only way Med can really ensure overtaking the YE#1 is if he wins both masters and the YEC, which while possible isn't easy considering one of them is on the other side of the globe

 

[RaulRamirez]

Looking at the "Race" points:
1. Novak - 8370
2. Med - 6380 (-1990)
3. Tsit - 5470
4. Zv - 4915
...
I'm assuming that the Year-End #1 will only count points earned in 2021 - correct, no more (pandemic rules) carryovers?

So, can Med earn 2,000 more points than Novak the rest of the way?
Obviously it depends on how many tourneys they'll both play, motivation and health/form.
If Med plays in two M1000s, there are up to 3,500 points (counting ATP Finals) he can earn.
What will Novak earn?
It's probable that Med will be within 1,500, perhaps closer, heading into the ATP Finals, so #1 can be won/lost there.
If Novak won yesterday, his lead would have been 3190 points - not mathematically clinched, but almost so.

 

[T007]

Margin is 1,990 with Novak leading.

Indian Wells & Paris Masters worth 2k combined.

Vienna/Basel for 500.

WTF being 1,500 if undefeated.

Obviously still uphill for Medvedev but Djokovic likely to skip Indian Wells at least and then who knows. I'm sure he'd want the consolation of a hard to beat 7th YE.

Margin in 1350 not 1990....ofcourse thats a big gap considering Medvdev could only gain points in IW. Djokovic wins if race ranking aren't counted

 

[T007]

Shanghai is cancelled and Djokovic to skip Indian Wells most likely.

Med has a chance be he needs to win everything.

Its a foolish thing to try and repeat murray job of 2016. That insane run in Indoor season ruined Andys body and he got sidelined with injuries next season.