RF-18
Talk Tennis Guru
Like at last year's USO?
With how the tournament unfolded, no he didn't have the toughest draw.
Like at last year's USO?
People should look more into the respective games of the players and form, rather than just rankings.
Nadal's draw looks easy because of the combination of players that have similar game, but are of a much much lesser quality, or players that haven't done anything for quite a while.
Djokovic's draw is significantly more difficult, because not only he meets more in form players, but they have strengths different than his own, and can cause a lot of problems, if they catch fire. Still, he gets a much necessary break in the QF, just before the final push, as Nishikori peaked too early for this part of the season (prediction either he doesn't reach the QF, or gets there injured and goes down easily).
Federer’s draw is the hardest, as he cannot (and never will) catch a break from playing players that are just breaking through (similar to his history with Del Po), which means that they are motivated and hungry, on top of being in form.
The two dangerous floaters, and the seriously ramping up pressure by meeting ever more quality opponent in every round makes his draw impossible to get through without arriving in the latter stages/ final in bad condition.
Odds: Djokovic as a favourite, followed by Nadal, and then Federer.
Waiting for a first time winner in Cilic or possibly one of the breakthrough players though.
Cilic has it hard, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic in succession on his projected path. All members of big three have a better chance than him IMO.
With how the tournament unfolded, no he didn't have the toughest draw.
I think that he is capable of doing it, and I rate his chances better than Federer’s right now.
Anyway, if not him, let's hope that one of the youngsters holds the Norman Brookes trophy come the winner presentation.
I think that he is capable of doing it, and I rate his chances better than Federer’s right now.
Anyway, if not him, let's hope that one of the youngsters holds the Norman Brookes trophy come the winner presentation.
There is a 0% chance of ANY player beating Federer, Djokovic and Nadal in succession. Only players remotely capable of that are Del Po, Stan and Tsonga and they are not doing in their current health and form
Roig, Moya, etc. have been saying it all offseason. Rafa is going to at least TRY to shorten points this season.
People should look more into the respective games of the players and form, rather than just rankings.
Nadal's draw looks easy because of the combination of players that have similar game, but are of a much much lesser quality, or players that haven't done anything for quite a while.
Djokovic's draw is significantly more difficult, because not only he meets more in form players, but they have strengths different than his own, and can cause a lot of problems, if they catch fire. Still, he gets a much necessary break in the QF, just before the final push, as Nishikori peaked too early for this part of the season (prediction either he doesn't reach the QF, or gets there injured and goes down easily).
Federer’s draw is the hardest, as he cannot (and never will) catch a break from playing players that are just breaking through (similar to his history with Del Po), which means that they are motivated and hungry, on top of being in form.
The two dangerous floaters, and the seriously ramping up pressure by meeting ever more quality opponent in every round makes his draw impossible to get through without arriving in the latter stages/ final in bad condition.
Odds: Djokovic as a favourite, followed by Nadal, and then Federer.
Waiting for a first time winner in Cilic or possibly one of the breakthrough players though.
https://www.atptour.com/es/news/nadal-cambio-saque-australian-open-2019“We’re looking to maximise damage from the onset, and one way to do that is with a faster, more aggressive serve,” Moya told ATPTour.com following his afternoon practice session with Nadal. “We’ve been working out the mechanics of his serve; his motion now is more fluid. Before, the ball he served lost power immediately after bouncing. That isn’t the case anymore; his serve maintains speed now after making contact with the court, making it that much more potent.”
According to Moya, the idea to alter Nadal’s service swing was conceived following Nadal’s semi-final showdown against Juan Martin del Potro at the 2018 US Open. Nadal was forced to retire from that match while trailing 6-7(3), 2-6 due to a knee tendon injury. Nadal and his team identified the slight weakness in his serve and devised a plan to improve the motion.
“These changes came following that match at the US Open,” Moya said. “Rafa was all for the changes, even if meant added work.
“He was the first to identify the weakness in his serve, and we as a team formulated an approach to improve it. We were sidetracked [in late 2018] because of the abdominal injury and the right ankle surgery but finally got around to physically working out the new service motion after recovery. I’m happy to say he’s now comfortable with the revamped serve motion.”
but Rafael beat Federer in straight sets at 2014ao, expending minimal effortIf Fed and Nadal meet in the semifinals, Djokovic is guaranteed the title. No way do those two rally from beating up on one another to then go on to beat Djokovic in a final.
By that logic, Fed has the toughest draw, followed by Nadal, then Djokovic.
Anderson has only ever taken ONE set from Rafael, so its not a real match-up.....and in their Abu Dhabi exhibition Rafael was hitting at half pace and still took a set, so Anderson will be annihilated if they meet at the AORafaello can hardly complain about his draw, though I could see Anderson stopping him if he once more carries dubious form into a HC tournament.
Federer has some more threats but little enough that he ultimately has only himself to blame if he doesn't go deep.
Noé has the most tricky opponents, but nothing that he won't handle.
QFs:
Djokovic d. Nishikori
Raonic d. Coric
Federer d. Cilic
Anderson d. Rafaello
SFs:
Djokovic d. Raonic
Anderson d. Fraud
Final:
Anderson d. Djokovic, 11–10 in the fifth in the fifth or whatever the new scoring system dictates.
There you have it, the answer sheet.
Anderson mightn't need win more than a set this time either before Rafaello goes:Anderson has only ever taken ONE set from Rafael, so its not a real match-up.....and in their Abu Dhabi exhibition Rafael was hitting at half pace and still took a set, so Anderson will be annihilated if they meet at the AO
Obviously, we'll see how it all plays out, and it will be nice to actually view big-time tennis again.
In theory, the #1 seed (Novak) should have a slightly easier draw (on paper) than the #2 (Rafa), which should be slightly easier than #3 (Roger) and so forth.
I think that the draw is fair, and none of the Big 3 got Stan (who may be dangerous, given his pedigree) in their quarter.
I would still like numerical brackets, if you will, for all tourneys, so you know that on paper, #1 gets 64, 32, 16, 8, 4 and 2, and # #2 gets 63, 31, 15, 7, 3 and 1, and so on. (At least, do this from the Round of 32 on, perhaps, R of 64 on). That's my opinion, of course. At least, #1 is matched with #4, and #2 with #3 in the semis.
Your mistake was thinking that Djokovic would beat RaonicRafaello can hardly complain about his draw, though I could see Anderson stopping him if he once more carries dubious form into a HC tournament.
Federer has some more threats but little enough that he ultimately has only himself to blame if he doesn't go deep.
Noé has the most tricky opponents, but nothing that he won't handle.
QFs:
Djokovic d. Nishikori
Raonic d. Coric
Federer d. Cilic
Anderson d. Rafaello
SFs:
Djokovic d. Raonic
Anderson d. Fraud
Final:
Anderson d. Djokovic, 11–10 in the fifth in the fifth or whatever the new scoring system dictates.
There you have it, the answer sheet.
I am sorry but this might be the worst idea I ever heard. If anything, I’d bring back the 16 seeds so that we have at least some interest in how the top players do before QF’s.
Rafaello can hardly complain about his draw, though I could see Anderson stopping him if he once more carries dubious form into a HC tournament.
Federer has some more threats but little enough that he ultimately has only himself to blame if he doesn't go deep.
Noé has the most tricky opponents, but nothing that he won't handle.
QFs:
Djokovic d. Nishikori
Raonic d. Coric
Federer d. Cilic
Anderson d. Rafaello
SFs:
Djokovic d. Raonic
Anderson d. Fraud
Final:
Anderson d. Djokovic, 11–10 in the fifth in the fifth or whatever the new scoring system dictates.
There you have it, the answer sheet.
Minimial effort? Did you not see Nadal break down in his next match? Did you not see him cry in pain? Did you not see him lose to a player he had never lost to before?but Rafael beat Federer in straight sets at 2014ao, expending minimal effort
Minimial effort? Did you not see Nadal break down in his next match? Did you not see him cry in pain? Did you not see him lose to a player he had never lost to before?
Like at last year's USO?
Federer had the worst US Open draws last year as they were planned to meet in the QF. But after Federer lost to Millman, it turned out that Rafa's draw was the worst.
I don't know that it was controversial, except for those who wanted to make it so. Stan played a great tourney, and deserved the title. Rafa gave it all he had that day, as he always does, but it wasn't enough this time. Injuries are a part of the sport. The only mini-controversy, I guess, is conjecture over who would have won if Rafa were 100%. But again, injuries are a part of the sport, and much as I wanted Rafa to be at his best and win, Stan deserved it.he beat monfils, nishikori, dimitrov and federer in a row before his controversial match against wawrinka.
Rafa has by far the easiest draw. Looking at the bracket, there's not a ranked player within a hundred miles of him. Who's going to beat him. de Minuar? Just like Rublev, right?
Fed will lose to (name player here) the round before he has to face Rafa, and Novak will beat him in the final. See you guys in June.
Rafa has by far the easiest draw. Looking at the bracket, there's not a ranked player within a hundred miles of him. Who's going to beat him. de Minuar? Just like Rublev, right?
Fed will lose to (name player here) the round before he has to face Rafa, and Novak will beat him in the final. See you guys in June.
Let's look at Rafa's draw. Really, we're talking the Round of 32, the Round of 16 and the QFs, as one would expect him as the #2 to draw #3 (Fed) in the semis and obviously, meet #1 (Novak) in the finals. In the first two rounds, a player could get a dangerous floater like Stan in the first round or two, which didn't happen to any of The Big 3.
In the R of 32 (one would expect him to draw #31), he gets #27 de Minaur - a crowd favorite, and a tougher than expected draw for this round.
In the R of 16 (expectation of #15), he gets #13 Edmund ...I'd say Edmund is a Top 15 candidate to win this...not easy.
In the QFs, he gets (expectation of #7), he gets #5 Anderson.
How is this an easy draw?
Sorry to spoil your narrative with logic.
but Rafael beat Federer in straight sets at 2014ao, expending minimal effort
And literally hasn't beat him since lol. Not to mention he hasn't even been able to finish a hard court tournament in over a year. You're making me rethink that maybe Nadal has the toughest draw of them all.
I agree Hitman! I enjoyed the Wimbledon 2018 SF so much that I wasn't that bothered by Nadal's loss. The level of tennis, the tension, the drama, the nerves. I enjoyed it so much that I ended up satisfied after the match.I don't really mind who wins it as long as the tennis is good.
According to @Hitman, it should be epic. 2008 Wimb epic -> 2018 Wimb epic. 2009 AO epic ->2019 AO ???I agree Hitman! I enjoyed the Wimbledon 2018 SF so much that I wasn't that bothered by Nadal's loss. The level of tennis, the tension, the drama, the nerves. I enjoyed it so much that I ended up satisfied after the match.
Let's hope this AO brings some epic 5 setters!
I agree Hitman! I enjoyed the Wimbledon 2018 SF so much that I wasn't that bothered by Nadal's loss. The level of tennis, the tension, the drama, the nerves. I enjoyed it so much that I ended up satisfied after the match.
Let's hope this AO brings some epic 5 setters!
as someone who likes tsonga in general, i cant remember the last time he did something of importance unfortunately.
Let's look at Rafa's draw. Really, we're talking the Round of 32, the Round of 16 and the QFs, as one would expect him as the #2 to draw #3 (Fed) in the semis and obviously, meet #1 (Novak) in the finals. In the first two rounds, a player could get a dangerous floater like Stan in the first round or two, which didn't happen to any of The Big 3.
In the R of 32 (one would expect him to draw #31), he gets #27 de Minaur - a crowd favorite, and a tougher than expected draw for this round.
In the R of 16 (expectation of #15), he gets #13 Edmund ...I'd say Edmund is a Top 15 candidate to win this...not easy.
In the QFs, he gets (expectation of #7), he gets #5 Anderson.
How is this an easy draw?
Sorry to spoil your narrative with logic.
From what I can remember edmund is weakest on a hc. I agree he reached ao 18 sf but it was a fluke.I think Nadal will lose to either Berdych or Edmund.
Edmund and Medvedev is a wash for me. Of course, Thiem gave Rafa a great battle at the USO, though Anderson has made two recent slam finals (HC and grass) to Thiem's one on clay. deMinaur (or possibly Shapo) may be the toughest he could have met up with in the R of 32.If they went by the numbers (as you lay out above) he’d have Medvedev (15) into Thiem (7). A much tougher road imo than Edmund/Anderson. Perhaps Edmund will prove me wrong but nothing in his game makes me think he can win 3 sets off Rafa. Anderson has no chance in hell.
Cilic:Not sure why everyone's saying Novak has the toughest draw. He definitely has the hardest early rounds, but Fed has Cilic (last year's AO finalist) in the QF and Nadal in the SF. Djokovic has Nishikori in the QF, whom he straight setted at the USO last year, and Zverev in the SF, who's very unlikely to make it. Stan might, but he's not exactly in strong form. I would say Federer has the tougher draw of the two.
He wasn't in a better position coming into the AO last year. Cilic really isn't all that consistent outside the slams. He made the QF of the most recent slam and lost in 5 sets. It's enough for me to be wary of him.Cilic:
ATP WTF: Straight set by Djokovic and Zverev. 3 set win over Isner.
Paris: Win over Dimitrov, 3 set loss to Djokovic.
Basel: R16 loss to Copil.
Shanghai: 3 set loss to Jarry in R1.
Tokyo: 3 set loss to Struff in R1.
US Open: 5 set QF loss to Nishikori.
Not overly consistent. Plus his H2H against Fed is 1-9. Nadal is also not a guarantee to make the semis.
Fair enough. Cilic is dangerous, but I don't see him really being a threat. The same goes for Nishikori.He wasn't in a better position coming into the AO last year. Cilic really isn't all that consistent outside the slams. He made the QF of the most recent slam and lost in 5 sets. It's enough for me to be wary of him.
Nadal may well not make the SF but you could play that game with anyone. Nadal is clearly more likely to make the SF than Zverev. I know he won the WTF, but he's been good at BO3 for 2 years - it's not yet translated into slams. It might this time, but it's unlikely.
The way I see it, 5 players have made the AO final in the last 3 years - Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Nadal and Cilic. Federer has a decent chance of facing 3 in order to win. Nadal 2. Djokovic will only face 1 at most.
He wasn't in a better position coming into the AO last year. Cilic really isn't all that consistent outside the slams. He made the QF of the most recent slam and lost in 5 sets. It's enough for me to be wary of him.
Nadal may well not make the SF but you could play that game with anyone. Nadal is clearly more likely to make the SF than Zverev. I know he won the WTF, but he's been good at BO3 for 2 years - it's not yet translated into slams. It might this time, but it's unlikely.
The way I see it, 5 players have made the AO final in the last 3 years - Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Nadal and Cilic. Federer has a decent chance of facing 3 in order to win. Nadal 2. Djokovic will only face 1 at most.
I don't take issue with Djokovic having the easier draw (if he has). Federer is number 3 so he was always going to face one of Djokodal in the SF. I think facing Nadal is preferable.I don't see a ton of difference in difficulty (on paper) among the quarters. Also, the #1 seed should have a slightly easier path than the #2, and so on. #2 and #3 should always be the semi matchup, assuming no upsets. In the paper QFs, Anderson may post a bigger threat than any of Cilic, Nish or Thiem.
In this case Djokovic has the easiest draw by far. Djokovic is the AO 2019 champion.
Federer has the most difficult.
Nadal in between.
On a 1-5 spectrum (1 easy, 3 average, 5 tough) I'd rate the draws as follows:
Djokovic: 4.5
Federer: 4.0
Zverev: 2.25
Nadal: 2.0