Up till before Madrid, has Nadal been better in 2015 than 2014 on clay?

[Nathaniel_Near]

He had a slow start last year and still won RG without being pushed the distance.

My memory of 2014 is already rather vague, but I get the impression he's slightly worse this year.

Thoughts?

He's already defeated Ferrer and Almagro this season; he was losing to them by this stage last year. But he's been all fogged up so far this year. Perhaps it's misleading?

 

[SpinToWin]

I think he did better and - more importantly - played significantly better last year. His opponents still had to play rather good matches to beat him last year, but this year he tends to do the brunt of the work for them, particularly on big points.

 

[chjtennis]

He is much worse in 2015. Simply too many losses to various players and he hasn't looked strong all year. Not surprising, though, considering his age.

 

[AnotherTennisProdigy]

I feel he's having trouble picking up momentum this year. Although he had a slow start, I remember he steadily built his way back to form. This time I'm not really feeling it.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Equally bad in both, though mentally he's worse this year. He's had "better" losses this year, but they mean much more both in reality and in his mind.

 

[falstaff78]

Equally bad in both, though mentally he's worse this year.

A closer look at the data seems to bear this out. The chart below shows some overall numbers from the Pre-Madrid clay seasons in 2013, 2014 & 2015.

Rafa won games and points at about the same rates in the Pre-Madrid Clay seasons in 2014 and 2015. Despite that, in 2015 this translated into a lower rate of winning sets. Rafa won 60% of games in 2015 and 61% in 2014. Similiar points on serve and points on return. But in 2015 he had a much lower rate of winning sets - 72% vs. 79% in 2014.

This logically means Rafa was winning more of the crucial points and games last year. This could plausibly be because of the mental issues that MN mentioned.

It is also interesting to break these stats down into early tournament stats (i.e. pre-SF) and late tournament stats (i.e. SF and F). First, the early tournament stats:

You can see in 2014 and 2015 his stats early in tournaments are basically identical (with the exception of the extra early defeat in 2014.) Sets 79% vs 78%, games 63% in each. Service points 65% vs. 67% won. Return 49% vs. 47%. etc. It's not on the chart, but quality of opponents was similiar too - ave rank of early opponents was 63 in 2015 and 50 in 2014. Turning to late tournament stats:

What sets Nadal on clay in 2015 apart from the same time period in 2013 and 2014 is a relative decline in his ability to close out sets in Semi-Finals and Finals. In 2013 and 2014 the rate at which he won sets in SFs & Fs was the same as the early rounds. (91% vs 93% in 2013. 79% vs. 80% in 2014.) Whereas in 2015 his rate of winning sets drops from 78% in early matches, to 56% in SFs & Fs.

The interesting point between 2014 and 2015 is that in SFs & Fs in these two years, he won games at about the same frequency (53% vs. 54%). But with the same rate of winning games, he was winning fewer sets. 80% vs. 56%. Meaning in 2015 he was failing to win the crucial games in SFs & Fs! Which points to mental/confidence issues.

 

[ultradr]

In 2014, didn't he serve 90 mph for 1st serves occasionally?
He was visibly struggling to serve, as I recall.
Still had bandages on his lower back even in RG, I think.

I think he is better in terms of his lower back but the timing for everything is still off I think.

Meaning in 2015 he was failing to win the crucial games in SFs & Fs! Which points to mental/confidence issues.

I agree with this. Nadal is a clutch player and he is currently not winning clutch points.
He is also having more problem holding his serve.

 

[veroniquem]

No, he's definitely been worse. Here is the story in stats. Nadal, Djoko, Fed stats on clay over the last 10 years:
Service games won (ranking and winning %):
2006: 2-Fed 85%, 4-Nad 84%, 20-Djok 79%
2007: 1-Nad 87%, 4-Fed 84%, 28-Djok 76%
2008: 6-Djok 85%, 9-Nad 84%, 11-Fed 84%
2009: 1-Fed 90%, 5-Nad 85%, 14-Djok 82%
2010: 1-Nad 91%, 2-Fed 87%, 28-Djok 79%
2011: 2-Djok 88%, 3-Fed 88%, 7- Nad 83%
2012: 3-Nad 89%, 4-Fed 88%, 20-Djok 81%
2013: 3-Nad 87%, 7-Fed 84%, 11-Djok 83%
2014: 3-Fed 89%, 9-Djok 83%, 10-Nad 83%
2015: 5-Djok 88%, 19-Fed 84%, 25-Nad 82%

Return games won:
2006: 1-Nad 40%, 7-Djok 36%, 18-Fed 33%
2007: 1-Nad 45%, 13-Djok 32%, 16-Fed 30%
2008: 1-Nad 51%, 3-Djok 37%, 12-Fed 32%
2009: 1-Nad 43%, 3-Djok 38%, 32-Fed 26%
2010: 1-Nad 41%, 2-Djok 39%, 35-Fed 26%
2011: 1-Nad 44%, 4-Djok 37%, 50-Fed 24%
2012: 1-Nad 47%, 7-Djok 33%, 25-Fed 28%
2013: 2-Nad 38%, 4-Djok 34%, 19-Fed 28%
2014: 1-Nad 44%, 2-Djok 37%, 28-Fed 26%
2015: 1-Djok 46%, 6-Nad 38%, 12-Fed 33%

Best career stats combined (serve and return) for Djoko in 2015, worst stats combined for Nadal in 2015. I think it's safe to say that if Djoko doesn't do RG this year, he never will...

 

[tennis_commentator]

He had a slow start last year and still won RG without being pushed the distance.

My memory of 2014 is already rather vague, but I get the impression he's slightly worse this year.

Thoughts?

He's already defeated Ferrer and Almagro this season; he was losing to them by this stage last year. But he's been all fogged up so far this year. Perhaps it's misleading?

I thought I was the only poster aware of this!
There is a huge chance Nadal will only drop a set or 2 at Roland Garros this year.

 

[swordtennis]

This year I might agree he is better or at least equal. Changed racket and is hitting the ball well. Not bad. Fognini plays him well style bothers Nadal next time they play Nadal will prob wreck him at RG. Outside RG Fognini beats him.

 

[helterskelter]

He had a slow start last year and still won RG without being pushed the distance.

My memory of 2014 is already rather vague, but I get the impression he's slightly worse this year.

Thoughts?

He's already defeated Ferrer and Almagro this season; he was losing to them by this stage last year. But he's been all fogged up so far this year. Perhaps it's misleading?

Almagro is much worse this year than he was last year, so that at least isn't comparing like with like.

He probably was better in Monte Carlo 2015 than Monte Carlo 2014, but better in Barcelona 2014 than Barcelona 2015.

 

[tennis_commentator]

Ferrer beat Nadal in straight sets last year at Monte Carlo.
This year Ferrer has 3 titles and Nadal beat him at Monte Carlo.
So don't be surprised if Nadal cruises through Roland Garros, as he did last year.
Nadal's ill-wishers better make the most of things right now, because depression is coming.

 

[swordtennis]

I have one question? Why would anyone be surprised? Nadal is a 9 time French Open champion.

 

[tennis_commentator]

I have one question? Why would anyone be surprised? Nadal is a 9 time French Open champion.

Slow learners take a decade.

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

Falstaff, great work as always — thanks for that.

 

[MichaelNadal]

A closer look at the data seems to bear this out. The chart below shows some overall numbers from the Pre-Madrid clay seasons in 2013, 2014 & 2015.

Rafa won games and points at about the same rates in the Pre-Madrid Clay seasons in 2014 and 2015. Despite that, in 2015 this translated into a lower rate of winning sets. Rafa won 60% of games in 2015 and 61% in 2014. Similiar points on serve and points on return. But in 2015 he had a much lower rate of winning sets - 72% vs. 79% in 2014.

This logically means Rafa was winning more of the crucial points and games last year. This could plausibly be because of the mental issues that MN mentioned.

It is also interesting to break these stats down into early tournament stats (i.e. pre-SF) and late tournament stats (i.e. SF and F). First, the early tournament stats:

You can see in 2014 and 2015 his stats early in tournaments are basically identical (with the exception of the extra early defeat in 2014.) Sets 79% vs 78%, games 63% in each. Service points 65% vs. 67% won. Return 49% vs. 47%. etc. It's not on the chart, but quality of opponents was similiar too - ave rank of early opponents was 63 in 2015 and 50 in 2014. Turning to late tournament stats:

What sets Nadal on clay in 2015 apart from the same time period in 2013 and 2014 is a relative decline in his ability to close out sets in Semi-Finals and Finals. In 2013 and 2014 the rate at which he won sets in SFs & Fs was the same as the early rounds. (91% vs 93% in 2013. 79% vs. 80% in 2014.) Whereas in 2015 his rate of winning sets drops from 78% in early matches, to 56% in SFs & Fs.

The interesting point between 2014 and 2015 is that in SFs & Fs in these two years, he won games at about the same frequency (53% vs. 54%). But with the same rate of winning games, he was winning fewer sets. 80% vs. 56%. Meaning in 2015 he was failing to win the crucial games in SFs & Fs! Which points to mental/confidence issues.

Thanks for this I know my Rafa lol.

 

[beard]

Ferrer beat Nadal in straight sets last year at Monte Carlo.
This year Ferrer has 3 titles and Nadal beat him at Monte Carlo.
So don't be surprised if Nadal cruises through Roland Garros, as he did last year.
Nadal's ill-wishers better make the most of things right now, because depression is coming.

Every post you wrote is same, every fckn single post :shock:
Ok, Nadal will win RG, we get it.

 

[veroniquem]

Nadal also dropped in the ranking in 2015 stats on hard but not in %, which seems to indicate he did about the same as last year in terms of perf but more players did better in 2015:
Service games won:
2014: 9- Nadal with 86%
2015: 15-Nadal with 87%

Return games won:
2014: 4- Nadal with 30%
2015: 10-Nadal with 30%

ETA: imo the drop is much more striking on clay because that's a surface where his stats are usually significantly higher.

 

[TheMusicLover]

Even if I wasn't all too impressed with Rafa's form at the start of 2014, it shouldn't be any discussion that the start of 2015 is worse.

Just a comparison: in both years Nadal lost a clay match against Almagro - the difference being that in 2014, Almagro was healthy and in decent form, whereas in 2015, he was just coming back from an injury with barely any matches on his belt. Should be telling all methinks.

That said - I won't pass judgement on Nadal's supposed slump or decline until RG. There was lots of talk of him not making it to the title there last year just as well, and we all know how it ended up.

 

[Steve0904]

Even if I wasn't all too impressed with Rafa's form at the start of 2014, it shouldn't be any discussion that the start of 2015 is worse.

Just a comparison: in both years Nadal lost a clay match against Almagro - the difference being that in 2014, Almagro was healthy and in decent form, whereas in 2015, he was just coming back from an injury with barely any matches on his belt. Should be telling all methinks.

That said - I won't pass judgement on Nadal's supposed slump or decline until RG. There was lots of talk of him not making it to the title there last year just as well, and we all know how it ended up.

He defeated Almagro this year. Lost to Fognini. Mind playing tricks on you.

 

[veroniquem]

Rafa's winning % in 2014 (on clay) before Madrid was 81.8. This year it's 78.5. I think it is the first time he's dropped below 80% on clay. Where he did significantly better last year is on grass (service stats). All the way from 83% in 2012 to 90% in 2014. That's a big improvement (even though he declined slightly on the return). It will be interesting to see if he can keep up this trend this year.

 

[GabeT]

Every post you wrote is same, every fckn single post :shock:
Ok, Nadal will win RG, we get it.

Sigh. Yes. :-?

 

[veroniquem]

The good news for Rafa is that from Madrid onwards, his winning % jumped to 94.1 last year. So, there is hope he can do something similar this year, or at least close.

 

[tennis_commentator]

The good news for Rafa is that from Madrid onwards, his winning % jumped to 94.1 last year. So, there is hope he can do something similar this year, or at least close.

Or better.
Given Talk Tennis' disgraceful track record with trying to predict Nadal, there is no limit to how much he can dominate this year.

 

[veroniquem]

there is no limit to how much he can dominate this year.

Yes there is: the # of tournaments he enters