Djokovic is in a slow decline, but his fans don't acknowledge it yet
- Thread starter Gary Duane
- Start date
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
Winning on the ATP Tour is like running away from a grizzly bear that is charging your group. You don’t have to run faster than the bear, just faster than the people you are running with. Djokovic is not anywhere close to his prime or peak levels as you would expect at his age, but he is the best player in the world by far on grass, probably top two on clay, possibly best player on slow hard courts and top 3 on fast hard courts. That’s why he has been the top ranked player throughout the last two years in spite of playing very few tournaments outside of Slams and has won 8 of the last 13 Slams.
Can you blame his fans for thinking he is still playing at the BOAT levels he used to play at? But, when he was at his peak, he was overwhelmingly the best player on grass and almost all hard courts. He was maybe fractionally behind Federer on the fastest hard courts and slightly behind Nadal on clay, but still capable of beating them if they were not at their best. He does not have that kind of baseline dominance anymore as he is hitting with a lot less topspin especially on his BH maybe because he doesn‘t get to the ball as early as he used to and has less time to prep. It is hard to imagine him not making the semifinals of all four Slams and possibly winning two of them each year in 2022 and 2023 as long as he stays healthy.
Can you blame his fans for thinking he is still playing at the BOAT levels he used to play at? But, when he was at his peak, he was overwhelmingly the best player on grass and almost all hard courts. He was maybe fractionally behind Federer on the fastest hard courts and slightly behind Nadal on clay, but still capable of beating them if they were not at their best. He does not have that kind of baseline dominance anymore as he is hitting with a lot less topspin especially on his BH maybe because he doesn‘t get to the ball as early as he used to and has less time to prep. It is hard to imagine him not making the semifinals of all four Slams and possibly winning two of them each year in 2022 and 2023 as long as he stays healthy.
I acknowledge his decline. In 2022, he may only be in 3 slam finals and win 2. It's all over for him.
O
OhYes
Guest
Why are his fans important in the title ?
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
Never expected you to outright admit this, ha. Nice job...
...and then you ruin it by ruminating on some mythical levels, particularly this 'slightly behind Nadal on clay' remark, oh dear.
Hayole
Rookie
To be fair in 2011-14 he was slightly behind Nadal on bo3 clay but obviously not as close at RG
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
2011 is the year... but no Djokodal at RG in the end.
2012 no contest, 3-0 matches 7-1 sets. 2013 close h2h-wise but Nadal's MC loss was the only match stopping him from the clay sweep while Djokovic lost to Berdych and Dimitrov in the other masters. 2014 yes but Nadal was not quite himself, got str8-setted by Ferrer at MC and was losing to Nishikori in Madrid until poor Kei hurt his back.
Hayole
Rookie
Oh man i totally forgot that match against Nishikori....
I still can't believe how people continue to underrate Djokovic's 2011season
Ok he was more complete as a player in 2015 but 2011 was just some obscene quality for like 9 months
Crocodile
G.O.A.T.
I think that all the added complexities of participating in professional tennis and other sports will take its toll next year on many athletes both physically and mentally. The stuff that’s going on right now will wear many athletes down, with all the protocols for training, travelling, entering various countries and cities. Not every player can afford their own jet plane to get around. I wouldn’t be surprised that some players may just put the cue in the rack.
With Novak it will depend on his ability to maintain his motivation to compete. For some reason I have this feeling that having a Roger absent and injured can sort of affect both Novak and Rafa as it sort of a symbolic hint towards the status of their era, in that they are on the other side of their careers,
On the other hand it would be up to the young guys to step up in a big way, something I think has been sort of lacking but gradually improving as you would expect.
With Novak it will depend on his ability to maintain his motivation to compete. For some reason I have this feeling that having a Roger absent and injured can sort of affect both Novak and Rafa as it sort of a symbolic hint towards the status of their era, in that they are on the other side of their careers,
On the other hand it would be up to the young guys to step up in a big way, something I think has been sort of lacking but gradually improving as you would expect.
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
All the better that past-prime Federer was a point away from 2-1 in slams against this crazy beast
But he did utterly own Nadal with no reprieve. Funny how during the 7-streak Nadal came by far the closest to victory in Djokovic's best prime tournaments (Miami and AO), while being beaten comprehensively elsewhere.
Hayole
Rookie
All the better that past-prime Federer was a point away from 2-1 in slams against this crazy beast
But he did utterly own Nadal with no reprieve. Funny how during the 7-streak Nadal came by far the closest to victory in Djokovic's best prime tournaments (Miami and AO), while being beaten comprehensively elsewhere.
That's true but 2 slams would've still been a great year + i honestly think Federer played quite well that year
That is so funny
Nadal was however so good during 2012 AO so that explains that one at least
mike danny
Bionic Poster
He is in decline, it's just that the Next Gen are too weak to expose it.
Red Rick
Bionic Poster
You don't think Djokovic losing a USO final in straights to a guy he'd obliterate 6 years ago is getting exposed?
mike danny
Bionic Poster
He still won 3 slams and was one match away from the CYGS. The exposure should've happened way earlier.
Cortana
Legend
He is the AO king, stopped Nadal and won RG, is currently the best grass court player and was beat by the best HC player right now?
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Yeah and? Fed is the Wimb king too and was still beaten by Djokovic in his 30's.
And Medvedev isn't the best HC player.
Fabresque
Legend
I don’t know how wrong a person could possibly be lol.Dropbox - File Deleted - Simplify your life
www.dropbox.com
Here is the data, and it shows his fading ability to return compensated for improving service. This is not a troll thread, an attack or an attempt to invalidate any of his accomplishments.
In fact, the way he is losing some of his defensive ability is very slow, very subtle and may be the slowest decline we've ever seen in the history of tennis.
Aside from 2006, when he was just breaking into the ATP, his worst year ever for serving on hard was 2010, where he barely got over 82% of service game for the year. In 2011, his miracle returning year, he was very close to 85%. This year, so far, he is at very close to 91%. That's a 6% net gain on the service game, which is amazing. But his return game percentage is currently at 28%.
28% would be a dream come true for most top players, but for him it's not only a 13% drop from 2011, his miracle returning year, it's 4% below his career average.
He will have to raise that this year to keep the same dominance he's had in the past. Does that mean he's no longer the best hard court player in the world? No, because there is so far no one who is approaching that magic 60% number for all games, so he's still the guy to beat.
But keep in mind that his career average on hard is 59.76% of all games, and that average includes not only 2017, his worst year since 2006, but also every year up to 2010. So when his yearly average fall below his career average, that's a decline. Please be aware that a decline for Djokovic is at the point mostly superior to everyone else out there, so keep it in perspective.
Just remember that anything under 30% of games won on return is well below his career average, a whopping 32%. So look carefully this year to see if that number goes up, or if it goes lower.
Remember: all aging players have a decline in defensive skills. It's just a matter of how fast it happens, and now long it takes before they fall to a point they can no longer compensate.
Sampras-Bruguera 1993
Legend
Decline doesn't matter when your 20 year old opposition cramps up after 2 sets of tennis.
jl809
Hall of Fame
Was this guy wrong though? It's possible that he's right and Djoker just won the slams anyway. I would always back even a declined Djoker over Berrettini, Kyrgios, Tsitsipas and Ruud
LaVie en Rose
Hall of Fame
I could swear I read similar wishful threads before
Unfortunatelly for OP Djokovic still has more than few options to make up for slight decline in defensive skills by aggressive FH and excellent serve that enables him to finish a lot of points in 1-4 shots range, even on clay
In age of Novak , life of a fedfan is not easy.
Unfortunatelly for OP Djokovic still has more than few options to make up for slight decline in defensive skills by aggressive FH and excellent serve that enables him to finish a lot of points in 1-4 shots range, even on clay
In age of Novak , life of a fedfan is not easy.
DSH
Talk Tennis Guru
Very, very, very 'tiny' decline.Dropbox - File Deleted - Simplify your life
Here is the data, and it shows his fading ability to return compensated for improving service. This is not a troll thread, an attack or an attempt to invalidate any of his accomplishments.
In fact, the way he is losing some of his defensive ability is very slow, very subtle and may be the slowest decline we've ever seen in the history of tennis.
Aside from 2006, when he was just breaking into the ATP, his worst year ever for serving on hard was 2010, where he barely got over 82% of service game for the year. In 2011, his miracle returning year, he was very close to 85%. This year, so far, he is at very close to 91%. That's a 6% net gain on the service game, which is amazing. But his return game percentage is currently at 28%.
28% would be a dream come true for most top players, but for him it's not only a 13% drop from 2011, his miracle returning year, it's 4% below his career average.
He will have to raise that this year to keep the same dominance he's had in the past. Does that mean he's no longer the best hard court player in the world? No, because there is so far no one who is approaching that magic 60% number for all games, so he's still the guy to beat.
But keep in mind that his career average on hard is 59.76% of all games, and that average includes not only 2017, his worst year since 2006, but also every year up to 2010. So when his yearly average fall below his career average, that's a decline. Please be aware that a decline for Djokovic is at the point mostly superior to everyone else out there, so keep it in perspective.
Just remember that anything under 30% of games won on return is well below his career average, a whopping 32%. So look carefully this year to see if that number goes up, or if it goes lower.
Remember: all aging players have a decline in defensive skills. It's just a matter of how fast it happens, and now long it takes before they fall to a point they can no longer compensate.
OP needs to comeback and update his research. @Gary Duane
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
Only thing I would change two years later is that he has tweaked his game to be more aggressive and he is better on fast hard courts now than on slow hard courts.
Fabresque
Legend
It’s possible but he shows no signs of slowing down lol.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
I actually think OP is still right. Djokovic has declined even compared to 2021, but not enough to meet the level of the rest of the field.
uscwang
Hall of Fame
Dropbox - File Deleted - Simplify your life
Here is the data, and it shows his fading ability to return compensated for improving service. This is not a troll thread, an attack or an attempt to invalidate any of his accomplishments.
In fact, the way he is losing some of his defensive ability is very slow, very subtle and may be the slowest decline we've ever seen in the history of tennis.
Aside from 2006, when he was just breaking into the ATP, his worst year ever for serving on hard was 2010, where he barely got over 82% of service game for the year. In 2011, his miracle returning year, he was very close to 85%. This year, so far, he is at very close to 91%. That's a 6% net gain on the service game, which is amazing. But his return game percentage is currently at 28%.
28% would be a dream come true for most top players, but for him it's not only a 13% drop from 2011, his miracle returning year, it's 4% below his career average.
He will have to raise that this year to keep the same dominance he's had in the past. Does that mean he's no longer the best hard court player in the world? No, because there is so far no one who is approaching that magic 60% number for all games, so he's still the guy to beat.
But keep in mind that his career average on hard is 59.76% of all games, and that average includes not only 2017, his worst year since 2006, but also every year up to 2010. So when his yearly average fall below his career average, that's a decline. Please be aware that a decline for Djokovic is at the point mostly superior to everyone else out there, so keep it in perspective.
Just remember that anything under 30% of games won on return is well below his career average, a whopping 32%. So look carefully this year to see if that number goes up, or if it goes lower.
Remember: all aging players have a decline in defensive skills. It's just a matter of how fast it happens, and how long it takes before they fall to a point they can no longer compensate.
Return Games Won | ATP Tour | Tennis
Return games won leaders and stats by career, year, surface and country from men's professional tennis on the ATP Tour.
www.atptour.com
This is certainly not the be all end all stat about aging. But let's take a look.
Novak return games won % in his multi-GS years:
Career average: 32.06%
2011: 38.84%
2015: 34.44%
2016: 34.47%
2018: 30.26%
2019: 31.78%
2021: 34.6% (OP spoke too soon.)
2023 so far: 32.33%
Djokodalerer31
Hall of Fame
Return Games Won | ATP Tour | Tennis
Return games won leaders and stats by career, year, surface and country from men's professional tennis on the ATP Tour.
This is certainly not the be all end all stat about aging. But let's take a look.
Novak return games won % in his multi-GS years:
Career average: 32.06%
2011: 38.84%
2015: 34.44%
2016: 34.47%
2018: 30.26%
2019: 31.78%
2021: 34.6% (OP spoke too soon.)
2023 so far: 32.33%
Yeah not as much of a decline as rather a season-to-season situation...it's just that...some seasons he returns better - some worse...people looking into it way deeper, than they should LOL and everyone knows back in 2011 he was in "out of this world" shape, so it's not a huge revelation on why return percentage was that noticably higher, than his other seasons...
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
Novak is declining physically every year. He is somehow managing to peak for slams. He can't go toe to toe vs opponents forever. In masters he doesn't try anymore.
In slams he could do it for few hrs. Like vs the adf match where rally length was north of 8 shots on average.
Everyone has to respect him for maintaining near peak health for over 17 years now. This Roland Garros at age 36, he could go toe to toe vs Raz and Ruud, two of the good clay players and especially outhit them both. That's where he becomes the GOAT. Not just his predecessors or his gen, he is standing equally even with guys 15 years younger. All of his same age players are down to the bottom. Nadal Wawrinka Murray Delpo (retired) Cilic. But Novak is world number 1.
This Roland Garros he was preparing for revenge vs Nadal. He prepared for the lion, and faced the panther in Alcaraz. Still pretty good competition but not Nadal. Novak was putting on weight to add more speed on his shots. More rpms, 200+ kph serves and 140/150+ kph forehands. All of that was for Nadal. He prepared for the goat clay player then played Carlos and Ruud and won eventually.
In slams he could do it for few hrs. Like vs the adf match where rally length was north of 8 shots on average.
Everyone has to respect him for maintaining near peak health for over 17 years now. This Roland Garros at age 36, he could go toe to toe vs Raz and Ruud, two of the good clay players and especially outhit them both. That's where he becomes the GOAT. Not just his predecessors or his gen, he is standing equally even with guys 15 years younger. All of his same age players are down to the bottom. Nadal Wawrinka Murray Delpo (retired) Cilic. But Novak is world number 1.
This Roland Garros he was preparing for revenge vs Nadal. He prepared for the lion, and faced the panther in Alcaraz. Still pretty good competition but not Nadal. Novak was putting on weight to add more speed on his shots. More rpms, 200+ kph serves and 140/150+ kph forehands. All of that was for Nadal. He prepared for the goat clay player then played Carlos and Ruud and won eventually.
Mediterranean Might
Professional
That 2011 percentage is so absurd. Peak form that yearReturn Games Won | ATP Tour | Tennis
Return games won leaders and stats by career, year, surface and country from men's professional tennis on the ATP Tour.
This is certainly not the be all end all stat about aging. But let's take a look.
Novak return games won % in his multi-GS years:
Career average: 32.06%
2011: 38.84%
2015: 34.44%
2016: 34.47%
2018: 30.26%
2019: 31.78%
2021: 34.6% (OP spoke too soon.)
2023 so far: 32.33%
LaVie en Rose
Hall of Fame
That level when he went to break Ruud's serve at 5 5 in 3th set , or level he has shown in 6 TB played was out of this world
Crazy Finn
Hall of Fame
Rurumania
Rookie
2nd set tiebreak vs Khachanov + 3rd set.
He still has that top level but we just see it less in matches. Only when he needs it most it seems.
His base level is still the highest on tour so getting by with it.
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Rurumania
Rookie
You really summed it up well hereEither that, or he has been the best for so long that he has trouble really concentrating until he gets in trouble!
His tiebreak record at this RG confirms that
duaneeo
Legend
There ya go.
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
He conserved energy till reaching tb. Like f1 cars and batteries.
CoolCoolCool
Hall of Fame
Le créateur de ce fil de discussion débat pour le plaisir de débattre.
OP can use Google Translate for this one.
OP can use Google Translate for this one.
Hypo Crisis
Professional
Hi GaryDropbox - File Deleted - Simplify your life
Here is the data, and it shows his fading ability to return compensated for improving service. This is not a troll thread, an attack or an attempt to invalidate any of his accomplishments.
In fact, the way he is losing some of his defensive ability is very slow, very subtle and may be the slowest decline we've ever seen in the history of tennis.
Aside from 2006, when he was just breaking into the ATP, his worst year ever for serving on hard was 2010, where he barely got over 82% of service game for the year. In 2011, his miracle returning year, he was very close to 85%. This year, so far, he is at very close to 91%. That's a 6% net gain on the service game, which is amazing. But his return game percentage is currently at 28%.
28% would be a dream come true for most top players, but for him it's not only a 13% drop from 2011, his miracle returning year, it's 4% below his career average.
He will have to raise that this year to keep the same dominance he's had in the past. Does that mean he's no longer the best hard court player in the world? No, because there is so far no one who is approaching that magic 60% number for all games, so he's still the guy to beat.
But keep in mind that his career average on hard is 59.76% of all games, and that average includes not only 2017, his worst year since 2006, but also every year up to 2010. So when his yearly average fall below his career average, that's a decline. Please be aware that a decline for Djokovic is at the point mostly superior to everyone else out there, so keep it in perspective.
Just remember that anything under 30% of games won on return is well below his career average, a whopping 32%. So look carefully this year to see if that number goes up, or if it goes lower.
Remember: all aging players have a decline in defensive skills. It's just a matter of how fast it happens, and how long it takes before they fall to a point they can no longer compensate.
You still around here ?
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
Djokovic had the best BH and returns in the game for most of his career. But, tennis matches are won more by serves and FHs. The amazing improvement is that Djokovic is serving better and hitting his FH bigger (82-83mph average in Slam late rounds this year) than ever before. While he can’t hang in long rallies as well as he used to because he is older with slower footwork, he is winning a very high % of short points due to his huge serve and FH. He is almost as hard to beat as he ever has been, but now it is because of his dominance during short points instead of long rallies which was his traditional strength.
Mere mortals like the OP and most detractors can’t ever predict how a tennis genius like Djokovic will evolve as he gets older.
Mere mortals like the OP and most detractors can’t ever predict how a tennis genius like Djokovic will evolve as he gets older.
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Smart player. Always played style which gives him biggest chance to win.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
OP couldn't have possibly predicted the competition would suffer a faster decline instead.
LaVie en Rose
Hall of Fame
Aggressive tennis rapsody :19 winners and 1 UE
I think all can remember Nadal til 2017 on average used to hit between 2-5 winners and make 0/1 UEs per set
Novak himself has said that adaptibility is the word he would describe himself. It reflected in his enormous success on all 3 surfaces&conditions, brilliant consistendcy throught season/s from January to November.
He adapts his game not just to conditions but playing style of his opponents. He is like water
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
Yes...Hi Gary
You still around here ?
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
Djokovic: Games% won on clay in 2011: 63.11%
Djokovic: Return Games% won on clay in 2011: 37.13%
Djokovic: Games% won on clay in 2023: 58.07%
Djokovic: Return Games% won on clay in 2023: 31.96%
This is a clear decline in average play on clay but does not take into consideration his clutch play in the slam and the cramping of Carlos.
Even a declining Djokovic is going to continue winning slams if no one younger steps up.
This is not taking credit away from him for continuing to dominate big matches over the age of 35. This part of his career is quite spectacular.
