RG 2018 SF: Rafael Nadal vs Juan Martin Del Potro

Who wins?


  • Total voters
    104

Badabing888

Hall of Fame
Can't see JDP defend and move well enough over 5 sets. He is the closest to Soderling there is, but I think Rafa learnt from that 2009 loss and won't lose again against another flat, aggressive hitter at RG again. Plus slicing his backhand will not work v Rafa on PC. Rafa in 4 sets after taking the first two, JDP taking the third and then Rafa wrapping it up comfortably in the fourth. Still, would love this to be a proper contest and to go 5 sets with JDP playing out of his mind and winning, but that would entail Rafa playing like he did v Shwartzmann in the 1st set and half for at least 3 sets.
 

I Am Finnish

Bionic Poster
Delpo's game is certainly not fully suited for clay, but as an Argentinian, he knows all the secrets of the surface.
Delpo is hungry of big titles, and he knows he is close to get this one.
Their last match on USO was flawed by the fact that Delpo's BH was still in the "just put it to the other side" mode. Now he has a much more efficient BH.
Rafa, on the other side, played without convincing in the last 2 matches and showed signs of physical and muscolar stress.
Delpo in 4.
You are pretty optimistic :eek:
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
True in more ways than one unforunately.

While he has a much bigger FH, serve and is a big match player he also won't consistently take his BH off the bounce and run around like gazelle on court like Diego did. IMO people underestimate the degree to which movement/footspeed is important when facing Nadal on clay, because of his spin, angles and placement.

That could be true but I'm sensing a possible Nadal upset in this tournament. I'm not sure if Del Potro or Thiem will do the deed but I think one of them may do it. God help us however, if Geppetto beats Thiem and he's in the final vs Nadal.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Oh I'd give Thiem a decent (relatively speaking) shot if it wasn't a final. I just don't trust his nerves to hold.

There's a reason the guy as good as he on clay doesn't even have a masters title on the surface.

But you can say the same about Halep. How many finals has she choked away? Yet, don't you have a feeling that she will finally win her first slam?
 

WarrenMP

Professional
Can't see JDP defend and move well enough over 5 sets. He is the closest to Soderling there is, but I think Rafa learnt from that 2009 loss and won't lose again against another flat, aggressive hitter at RG again. Plus slicing his backhand will not work v Rafa on PC. Rafa in 4 sets after taking the first two, JDP taking the third and then Rafa wrapping it up comfortably in the fourth. Still, would love this to be a proper contest and to go 5 sets with JDP playing out of his mind and winning, but that would entail Rafa playing like he did v Shwartzmann in the 1st set and half for at least 3 sets.
I can see JDP getting into the mindset to play out the points and be aggressive when possible. JDP holding his serve is key. Once they go into rallies it is over with for JDP in the long haul.
 

TearTheRoofOff

G.O.A.T.
Oh I'd give Thiem a decent (relatively speaking) shot if it wasn't a final. I just don't trust his nerves to hold.

There's a reason the guy as good as he on clay doesn't even have a masters title on the surface.
Zverev's success on clay relative to Thiem's simply offends me.
 

Rickenbacker4003

Hall of Fame
I
Can't see JDP defend and move well enough over 5 sets. He is the closest to Soderling there is, but I think Rafa learnt from that 2009 loss and won't lose again against another flat, aggressive hitter at RG again. Plus slicing his backhand will not work v Rafa on PC. Rafa in 4 sets after taking the first two, JDP taking the third and then Rafa wrapping it up comfortably in the fourth. Still, would love this to be a proper contest and to go 5 sets with JDP playing out of his mind and winning, but that would entail Rafa playing like he did v Shwartzmann in the 1st set and half for at least 3 sets.
I thought Cilic was more like Sodering because he hits hard from both wings and has a big serve. Delpo has a weak backhand and for his height an average serve. Cilic also beat him in AO so he had that going for him.
 

TennisFan3

Talk Tennis Guru
Oh I'd give Thiem a decent (relatively speaking) shot if it wasn't a final. I just don't trust his nerves to hold.

There's a reason the guy as good as he on clay doesn't even have a masters title on the surface.

I honestly feel that Thiem doesn't have the game to hurt Rafa, if Nadal is at his best. Now if Nadal's stinking a joint, like he was against Diego and generally all tournament, then Thiem can definitely beat him. Because this is really not the vintage clay Rafa. But if Nadal plays the finals as he usually does at RG, I think Thiem won't be a big challenge.

Honestly, I'd say Delpo in the SF is a bigger challenge for Rafa than Thiem/Marco would be in the final. So in a way if he beats Delpo tomorrow, he should be relatively relaxed about winning his 11th.
 

sarmpas

Hall of Fame
Del Potro's BH isn't much of a weapon since his injuries and he's not one of the fastest players on tour. Those two points will give Nadal so much extra belief he'll win the match - every point he'll know if he hits a good shot to Del Potro's BH he'll likely gain control of the point.
 

Rickenbacker4003

Hall of Fame
Del Potro's BH isn't much of a weapon since his injuries and he's not one of the fastest players on tour. Those two points will give Nadal so much extra belief he'll win the match - every point he'll know if he hits a good shot to Del Potro's BH he'll likely gain control of the point.
I agree, to beat good form Rafa at RG in best of 5 you MUST be strong on both wings, you need to move well, better than average and you need to serve big. And then do that for 5 sets. It's such a hard task really. Peak Djokovic couldn't beat peak Rafa on it. Delpo only has a monster forehand going for him.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Del Potro can be very dangerous but looks like the conditions will favor Nadal. I just hope Del Potro opens up those shoulders and gives up a great match.
 

Fedole

Semi-Pro
Del Potro's BH isn't much of a weapon since his injuries and he's not one of the fastest players on tour. Those two points will give Nadal so much extra belief he'll win the match - every point he'll know if he hits a good shot to Del Potro's BH he'll likely gain control of the point.
Spot on. Eurosport were talking earlier about Delpo's weapons, but from what I can see his weapons are an awesome serve plus a good forehand when its where he wants it. The backhand is literally just OK, its passive which is why Nadal will kill it.
 

vanioMan

Legend
I'm fine with Nadal the guy and Nadal the champion.
But I won't lie and say that I'm not sick of seeing him win this event every single freaking year though.

Obviously it's incredible that he's had such a stranglehold on it, but it ruins it unless you're actually a Nadal fan. Even if you still respect the guy.
Just my opinion of course, but it seems many others share it. I don't look forward to clay or RG, because the same guy wins every time. Of course as a Federer fan I realise that others could say the same about Federer in tennis in general and more than ever now I can see where they're coming from.

As for the injury comments I was having a go at the excuse makers in the match thread yesterday, not Nadal. Just so that's clear.

This is exactly what I feel. I don't have any problem with Nadal the champion. He is and forever will be the tallest God on this surface. But, it is so excruciatingly boring for most non-Rafans. I mean, year after year. I would like to see somebody step up and play fearless tennis like how Cecc played against Novak. But Rafa's aura seems to be too powerful on clay. It's not even like he's unbeatable like he was in 2017 or in the past. He has looked ordinary compared to his standards but either nobody seems to have the b@!!s to step up and take the game to him(like Schwartz did for a grand total of 1 set) or he catches a few lucky breaks(like the Rain in Rome and yesterday). I remember how refreshing it was to see Wawrinka win 2015. It came like a breath of fresh air. And not to mention that Rafa, in my book, is the most weather-sensitive and surface-sensitive GOAT candidate in the history. I don't know. I just wanna see the next Gen step up. Not just for RG. For Wimbledon and beyond. Enough of Federer and Nadal and Djokovic. Yes, they are all GOATs. But some fresh blood please, for heaven's sake?

Lol, I seriously can't understand some of you guys. If you're so sick of Rafa winning on clay, skip his matches or the whole clay season. Problem solved.

I skipped several finals from USO 2015 until Miami 2016 for the same reason as you (related to Djokovic, of course).

I mean, if you don't like something and you complain about it, at least take some measures. Otherwise your complaints are pointless :)
 

sarmpas

Hall of Fame
Spot on. Eurosport were talking earlier about Delpo's weapons, but from what I can see his weapons are an awesome serve plus a good forehand when its where he wants it. The backhand is literally just OK, its passive which is why Nadal will kill it.

Some of us hope Nadal will lose, I'm one of them. Realistically though it's Nadal's match.
 

malbaker86

Hall of Fame
I honestly feel that Thiem doesn't have the game to hurt Rafa, if Nadal is at his best. Now if Nadal's stinking a joint, like he was against Diego and generally all tournament, then Thiem can definitely beat him. Because this is really not the vintage clay Rafa. But if Nadal plays the finals as he usually does at RG, I think Thiem won't be a big challenge.

Honestly, I'd say Delpo in the SF is a bigger challenge for Rafa than Thiem/Marco would be in the final. So in a way if he beats Delpo tomorrow, he should be relatively relaxed about winning his 11th.

Agreed. If Nadal gets through tomorrow, i have NO worries come Sunday
 

Mike Sams

G.O.A.T.
That's true, but this time Delpo is the fresher one, imo. Let's not forget that Delpo played only four matches on clay prior to Roland Garros, while Nadal won three tournaments and lost in QF in Madrid. He's 32 and his QF match was more taxing, imo, regardless of the final score.
I think it will be much closer match than some people think.
If Del Potro is able to play like he did in the 2009 SF against Federer then we got ourselves a barnburner.
 

Mike Sams

G.O.A.T.
Agreed. If Nadal gets through tomorrow, i have NO worries come Sunday
You weren't worried when you saw Thiem bludgeoning balls left and right past Nadal in Madrid? You don't think Thiem can bring that in the Sunday final if the conditions are damp?
 

mightyrick

Legend
Del Potro isn't going to be slicing the ball tomorrow. He's going full force with deep powerful backhands. No wrist issues now.

I actually hope you're right. It would really suck if Del Potro committed to hitting his backhand 100% against Nadal in best-of-five... only to find his wrist injured again.
 

OddJack

G.O.A.T.
Delpo won his only major by beating Nadal in SF, and that's what he is thinking right now. He wants this real bad. Did fought back tears after Cilic match.
" I can take a lot of love from you" he told the crowd. He's a street smart type of guy. I will be watching the match and I wish he wins this and the next match.
 
Del Potro won't beat Rafa at Roland Garros this year. But his press conferences indicate that he thinks Thiem is Rafa's biggest threat, so I can definitely see him trying to implicitly help Thiem out by stretching Nadal for as long as possible before allowing Thiem to launch a last assault in the Final.

Only time will tell whether that will be enough.

a la his Wimby 2013 match w/ Djokvoic that cost Djokovic in the F vs Murray.
 
I
I thought Cilic was more like Sodering because he hits hard from both wings and has a big serve. Delpo has a weak backhand and for his height an average serve. Cilic also beat him in AO so he had that going for him.

I remember pondering in the R16 which of the 4 potential candidate would be the biggest challenge for Nadal:

Delpo
Cilic
Fognini
Isner

The more I thought about it, I could make a case for any of them.

Delpo's A game is the best of the 4.
Cilic has a win in a major against Nadal (no less, the very last major played!).
Fognini has beaten Rafa on clay multiple times, is completely not bothered by Rafa's heavy topspin (due to ability to take the ball early) and won 5 straight games against him just a few weeks ago.
Isner, while the only one of the 4 to never beat Rafa, took peak Rafa to 5 at RG as a far inferior player in 2011, took him the distance at Monte Carlo, and lost a tight 76, 76 match in a Masters final. With his serve, he's tough enough to break that he could win a coule TBs and make it interesting.

Still, I don't know which of the 4 I'd take. If really pressed on it, I might lean Fognini, but Delpo certainly will have his chances, especially considering Rafa's average form.
 

EloQuent

Legend
I remember pondering in the R16 which of the 4 potential candidate would be the biggest challenge for Nadal:

Delpo
Cilic
Fognini
Isner

The more I thought about it, I could make a case for any of them.

Delpo's A game is the best of the 4.
Cilic has a win in a major against Nadal (no less, the very last major played!).
Fognini has beaten Rafa on clay multiple times, is completely not bothered by Rafa's heavy topspin (due to ability to take the ball early) and won 5 straight games against him just a few weeks ago.
Isner, while the only one of the 4 to never beat Rafa, took peak Rafa to 5 at RG as a far inferior player in 2011, took him the distance at Monte Carlo, and lost a tight 75, 75 match in a Masters final. With his serve, he's tough enough to break that he could win a coule TBs and make it interesting.

Still, I don't know which of the 4 I'd take. If really pressed on it, I might lean Fognini, but Delpo certainly will have his chances, especially considering Rafa's average form.
Fognini has beaten Rafa on clay. Isner pushed him to 5. Delpo has a high level when healthy, but not actually sure Fognini's isn't equivalent.

No way in hell Cilic beats Rafa on clay.
 
Fognini has beaten Rafa on clay. Isner pushed him to 5. Delpo has a high level when healthy, but not actually sure Fognini's isn't equivalent.

No way in hell Cilic beats Rafa on clay.

I tend to agree. Ironically though, Cilic is the highest ranked player of the 4. If he served well, he'd have to have a chance though. Unlike Delpo, he has power off both wings. He's the closest thing to Soderling of the 4.
 

I Am Finnish

Bionic Poster
He can beat Dominic Thiem when he's sick as a dog and down 2 sets to love. ;):D
thiem would not be happy if del Potro reachs the final being sick or not
I think he is tougher match up than Nadal


Thiem & Nadal are the favourites but Maybe they will have a bad day and Del potro- Cecchinato will reach the final, you know some crazy stuff happens in tennis right:eek:
 

EloQuent

Legend
I tend to agree. Ironically though, Cilic is the highest ranked player of the 4. If he served well, he'd have to have a chance though. Unlike Delpo, he has power off both wings. He's the closest thing to Soderling of the 4.
He got ranked high with a couple of finals where he then promptly lost to Fedr.
 
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