Djokovic v Nadal - Race to YE#1 2018

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Deleted member 77403

Guest
Probably massive importance but hopefully realism will prevail from Moya and co....I'd imagine after Asia swing they may look at Nole's points and kinda go 'Ummmm...Lets start getting ready for Australia'....He probably needs another 2,500 points and I don't see that coming from Basle, Paris and WTF....Keen he avoids last year's end of season mistakes by playing not 100% and then not being able to get ready for Australia properly....Number 18 is more important and if he has good practice in December he is 2nd favourite there I'd imagine....

They may pull the plug depending on how Asia goes, but I doubt they will do it before then.
 

S'in-net

Semi-Pro
Nadal was #1 after USO 13 though(hope that's right :D)
And Novak had to trail him hard. Sweeped the whole indoor season and still ended up #2.
Right now it's still Novak trailing.
Looks closer to a Murray 2016 situation, even if Murray played well 1st half of 2016, while Novak was bad in 2018.

In 2013, Beijing/Shanghai/Paris/WTF, Novak went W/W/W/W but Nadal held him off with RU/Semis/Semis/RU

Even losing twice to Novak but the consistency was enough to stay No. 1

This time, likely Nadal misses tourneys or that level of consistency, so it's over to Novak to run this out -- even just with consistency let alone Wins
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
By my calculations, if Novak wins Beijing and Shanghai and Rafa reaches the finals at both, then the point tally will be:

Nadal: 8560
Djokovic: 7945

Then, if they both reach QF in Paris, he final tally will be:

Nadal: 8560
Djokovic: 8125

Now if Novak wins the WTF and Nadal reaches the final, both without losing a single match, the final tally is:

Nadal: 9560
Djokovic: 9625

Novak can leapfrog Rafa as long as he wins Beijing, Shanghai and WTF, evenif Rafa reaches the finals of all 3. In that case, he has to hope they both reach QF and Nadal doesn't do better. He also has to hope that Rafa doesn't play Basel or another 500 after the Asian swing.

And that's being generous to Rafa, because I don't see him defending last year's points. But even so, Novak needs to go on a winning spree. Can he do it? Yes he can.
 
Thanks forthe info ;)

He was scheduled to play Basel last year too and he didn't go there anymore.

It depends on how he does in Beijing and Shanghai.

Plus, it's still an indoor tournament. You have to favor the competition over Rafa in these conditions.
Out of the remaining tournaments he's only won Beijing twice :)
 

Fabresque

Legend
Even if he doesn’t end the year #1 (It would be a robbery considering he’s the only two slam winner this year), Djokovic would probably reclaim #1 before the clay court season. No points to defend from Indian Wells and Miami, 4R points at the Aussie Open. No points to defend in Barcelona, low points to defend in Monte Carlo and Madrid, SF in Rome and QF in French Open.

I think we can all agree Federer is done as of now. He’s got a lot to defend in the really early of the new season, defending the Aussie Open and a 500 in Rotterdam.
 

Pantera

Banned
If Nadal hold Djokovic off, he deserves it. Tennis more than just the slams.
Thank you for that as I’m suffering a post Us Open hangover and feel season is over but you clearly think otherwise. At least someone does as way media report the game it’s like only 4 events matter.

As for the race...I’d rather be in Nadals position as he has a head start. On the flip side Djokovic usually does better at this stage of season.

Is Nadal playing Beijing and Shanghai or is he out for definite?
 
C

Charlie

Guest
Djokovic has a decent shot but I don't think Nadal will be catastrophic for the rest of the year.

Would be pretty amazing if they settled it in the WTF final, with Djokovic victorious this time unlike in 2016.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Thank you for that as I’m suffering a post Us Open hangover and feel season is over but you clearly think otherwise. At least someone does as way media report the game it’s like only 4 events matter.

As for the race...I’d rather be in Nadals position as he has a head start. On the flip side Djokovic usually does better at this stage of season.

Is Nadal playing Beijing and Shanghai or is he out for definite?

The season is far from over and the race is hotting up now. These next few months will be exciting, both Nadal and Djokovic are looking to equal Federer in year end number ones, but only one can do it.

Nadal is in a better position. He is scheduled to return to defend Beijing, but Djokovic might not go due to Laver Cup. Both should be in Shanghai as it stands right now. History on the line for both.
 

Pantera

Banned
The season is far from over and the race is hotting up now. These next few months will be exciting, both Nadal and Djokovic are looking to equal Federer in year end number ones, but only one can do it.

Nadal is in a better position. He is scheduled to return to defend Beijing, but Djokovic might not go due to Laver Cup. Both should be in Shanghai as it stands right now. History on the line for both.
The Laver Cup! Not needed in an already overloaded calendar. Novak should pull out really . Might only be a weekend of tennis but travelling to Chicago and prepping....I just don’t see the point.

Couldn’t understand Rafa playing it last yearas I knew he would end up getting injured.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
The Laver Cup! Not needed in an already overloaded calendar. Novak should pull out really . Might only be a weekend of tennis but travelling to Chicago and prepping....I just don’t see the point.

Couldn’t understand Rafa playing it last yearas I knew he would end up getting injured.

Nadal played it last year as a way of thanking Federer for coming to the opening of his academy.

I think Djokovic wanted to play it, because he enjoyed watching it the last time and wanted to be a part of if. Even if only once, also creates the dream team of Federer and Djokovic standing side by side. This is the only place where they can fight on the same side.
 

Pantera

Banned
Nadal played it last year as a way of thanking Federer for coming to the opening of his academy.

I think Djokovic wanted to play it, because he enjoyed watching it the last time and wanted to be a part of if. Even if only once, also creates the dream team of Federer and Djokovic standing side by side. This is the only place where they can fight on the same side.
Yes it’s Federer baby isn’t it. It has potential but I think they need to think about where they have it in the calendar.there is a massive gap between AO and FO especially in February early March where not much happens I wonder whether they could have it then?
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Yes it’s Federer baby isn’t it. It has potential but I think they need to think about where they have it in the calendar.there is a massive gap between AO and FO especially in February early March where not much happens I wonder whether they could have it then?

A lot of the top players, Federer included have training blocks in Feburary, because when March comes, its all systems go all the way from IW to USO. They need that period post AO to regroup and prepare.

It can only happen, post USO, and you don't want it to close to WTF and Davis Cup final, so September is best time.
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
By my calculations, if Novak wins Beijing and Shanghai and Rafa reaches the finals at both, then the point tally will be:

Nadal: 8560
Djokovic: 7945

Then, if they both reach QF in Paris, he final tally will be:

Nadal: 8560
Djokovic: 8125

Now if Novak wins the WTF and Nadal reaches the final, both without losing a single match, the final tally is:

Nadal: 9560
Djokovic: 9625

Novak can leapfrog Rafa as long as he wins Beijing, Shanghai and WTF, evenif Rafa reaches the finals of all 3. In that case, he has to hope they both reach QF and Nadal doesn't do better. He also has to hope that Rafa doesn't play Basel or another 500 after the Asian swing.

And that's being generous to Rafa, because I don't see him defending last year's points. But even so, Novak needs to go on a winning spree. Can he do it? Yes he can.

Basically Djokovic has to win everything. Props if he does but I don't see it.
 

Pheasant

Legend
One thing that could mess Djoker for the race to #1 is that he'd likely meet Federer in the semis at Shanghai, along with being on the same side of the bracket at the WTF. Now granted, Djoker would be the favorite. But Fed could zone and be dangerous for Djoker. If Fed snags one of these victories, it could spell trouble for Djoker in his quest for #1.

I'm looking forward to watching these tournaments to see whether or not Nadal can hold off peaking Djoker. Either way, Djoker and Nadal have the top two spots wrapped up.
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
One thing that could mess Djoker for the race to #1 is that he'd likely meet Federer in the semis at Shanghai, along with being on the same side of the bracket at the WTF. Now granted, Djoker would be the favorite. But Fed could zone and be dangerous for Djoker. If Fed snags one of these victories, it could spell trouble for Djoker in his quest for #1.

I'm looking forward to watching these tournaments to see whether or not Nadal can hold off peaking Djoker. Either way, Djoker and Nadal have the top two spots wrapped up.

Honestly, Federer is probably done zoning.....
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
Basically Djokovic has to win everything. Props if he does but I don't see it.
But that's only if Nadal also wins everything (except beating Djoker)

If Nadal skips a couple of these tournaments, it suddenly becomes a lot easier for Djokovic

Right this second I think Nadal has an 80-85% chance of ending up YE #1, but this is obviously subject to change depending on how the coming weeks pan out
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
But that's only if Nadal also wins everything (except beating Djoker)

If Nadal skips a couple of these tournaments, it suddenly becomes a lot easier for Djokovic

Right this second I think Nadal has an 80-85% chance of ending up YE #1, but this is obviously subject to change depending on how the coming weeks pan out
If Nadal does well in Beijing and Shanghai and he also wins Vienna, Novak is screwed.
 

Pheasant

Legend
Honestly, Federer is probably done zoning.....

You are probably right. But imagine if Fed somehow dumped Djoker in the semis, then lost to Nadal in the final. This scenario isn't impossible and would likely allow Nadal to get to #1. Or imagine a zoning Thiem beating Djoker at the WTF, then Federer goes for broke and gets lucky against Djoker at the WTF.

After watching Thiem at the USO, I think that he might be a factor as well. We shall see.
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
You are probably right. But imagine if Fed somehow dumped Djoker in the semis, then lost to Nadal in the final. This scenario isn't impossible and would likely allow Nadal to get to #1. Or imagine a zoning Thiem beating Djoker at the WTF, then Federer goes for broke and gets lucky against Djoker at the WTF.

After watching Thiem at the USO, I think that he might be a factor as well. We shall see.

Federer is so never beating The Mummy again though :D
 

RS

Bionic Poster
People are writing Federer off it is shocking. He still has a chance. Shanghai,Basel and WTF has been faster in the last 2 years all play medium-fast so they suit Federer. Djokovic will likely play Federer in Shanghai or WTF and maybe more than once and Federer has a chance of beating him in these conditions.
I think it is still on between Nadal,Djokovic and Federer. I make Djokovic the slight favourite due to current form.
 

uscwang

Hall of Fame
The Laver Cup! Not needed in an already overloaded calendar. Novak should pull out really . Might only be a weekend of tennis but travelling to Chicago and prepping....I just don’t see the point.

Couldn’t understand Rafa playing it last yearas I knew he would end up getting injured.
I think the Laver Cup decision was made before WB. 2 GS and Cincy later, it doesn't seem a good idea for Novak anymore. He should ask Murray or Stan to take his place.
 

Northern

Hall of Fame
I think this is Djokovic's to lose. Nadal's physical problems will keep him from defending his YE #1. Not that he should even attempt to do it...
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Djokovic likely missing out Beijing, whereas Nadal looks potentially like going there to defend the title is going to make Nadal very difficult to catch. If Nadal goes deep in a couple of events, he will deny Djokovic the coveted year end number one.

Remember, Nadal has never done back to back YE number ones, so this is a milestone for him.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
If Nadal does well in Beijing and Shanghai and he also wins Vienna, Novak is screwed.

Not necessarily. Nadal is defending 500 points in Beijing and 600 in Shanghai. That's basically 1100 points that have to come off and he has to defend. I think he is still in doubt for both tournaments with his injury.
 

Northern

Hall of Fame
Djokovic likely missing out Beijing, whereas Nadal looks potentially like going there to defend the title is going to make Nadal very difficult to catch. If Nadal goes deep in a couple of events, he will deny Djokovic the coveted year end number one.
Wait a second... I think it was Nadal the one that retired due to injury. o_O
 
D

Deleted member 716271

Guest
Its gonna be Nadal 1 and Djokovic 2.

Anyone guess how many slam final they will contest next year?

I say 2
 

Northern

Hall of Fame
Not necessarily. Nadal is defending 500 points in Beijing and 600 in Shanghai. That's basically 1100 points that have to come off and he has to defend. I think he is still in doubt for both tournaments with his injury.
It's irrelevant how many points he drops. We are looking at the race points.
 
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