2021 US Open Final - [1] Novak Djokovic vs. [2] Daniil Medvedev

[uscwang]

If Novak wins this match, he’ll have 9,170 points in the race rankings, and 8,000 of those would be from the slams.

Been there done that.
Mind you, at the height of his 2016 season, Novak would still be ranked #1 in the world WITHOUT any of the 8000 points from GS.

 

[rhoder]

I hope at least they’d try to push themselves and take risks in attacking if not it’s not going to be the best final to watch. Pretty sure Novak’s going to take this though.. Medvedev is way undercooked, don’t really know how to be hyped for this final tbh

 

[Pheasant]

I agree to an extent and almost added more about Zverev’s top-end power allowing him to take the match out of Novak’s hands somewhat, at least in comparison to Medvedev.

But on the other hand, Medvedev is a much, much smarter player. He can’t blow Novak off the court from the ground, but he’s one of the few guys with both the movement and the tactical acumen required to outmaneuver him with any kind of consistency. His serve is still a big one and will still win him free points – not as lethal as Zverev’s, but probably more reliable. Fewer patches where he can‘t get a first serve in, and not as many double faults or 70 mph second serves. And he’s even more consistent on return. He has his weapons.

Zverev in full flight, of course, is a sight to behold – easily the best of the current crop of Next Genners, in my opinion – but the problem is he struggles to find that form with any consistency and is especially bad at maintaining it in the biggest, tightest moments at the business end of a grand slam (as we saw again last night). In a vacuum, peaking for just one match, yeah, I think Zverev’s the tougher match-up, but in the real-world up and down of the tour, Med’s going to more reliably frustrate and beat Novak, I think (though not on Sunday of course ).

Edit: But yeah, as far as getting that one big win at a slam, Zverev might be a bit likelier provided he can redline for longer than he managed to last night. We’ll see on Sunday how things shake out.

Good point on Med being far smarter than Zverev. I forget what match it was(maybe Cinci a few years back) where Djoker was destroying Med's 2nd serves. So Med went for broke by bombing all 1st serves(ditched 2nd serves altogether) and being more aggressive from the baseline the rest of the match. Med lost the first set convincingly, but won the last 2 sets for the win. It was an amazing call. Let's also not forget how Med was down 2 sets to Nadal in the USO final before stepping up his game and leveling the match at 2 all. Granted, Nadal still won. But Med does make great adjustments and he never gives up. He's a very solid player for sure.

 

[Ruark]

Med:
“The more you lose something, the more you want to win it, the more you want to gain it and take it. I lost two finals. I want to win the third one. You never know what’s going to happen, but I’m going to try more than I did the first two times.”

 

[Pablo1989]

Not even Medvedev thinks he can win

 

[BeatlesFan]

I have a minority opinion but think this will be a blow out for Djokovic. Novak already has played a brilliant mental card by saying, "I am going to play on Sunday as if it's the last match of my career." He's the strongest mental player out there by a huge margin and Med has choked countless big matches (how about the 2019 YEC finals where he was 5-1 up against Rafa in the third and ended up losing?)

Djokovic is going for history and will be dialed in from the first point. Unlike Med, he doesn't have lapses in concentration or go on mental walkabouts. He won't lose the first set tomorrow, he will come out with ice in his veins and beat Daniil easily in straights. It will be a very similar match to AO 2021 - lots of hype that Daniil will be a "massive threat," only to fold like a tame little doe.

 

[uscwang]

I have a minority opinion but think this will be a blow out for Djokovic. Novak already has played a brilliant mental card by saying, "I am going to play on Sunday as if it's the last match of my career." He's the strongest mental player out there by a huge margin and Med has choked countless big matches (how about the 2019 YEC finals where he was 5-1 up against Rafa in the third and ended up losing?)

Djokovic is going for history and will be dialed in from the first point. Unlike Med, he doesn't have lapses in concentration or go on mental walkabouts. He won't lose the first set tomorrow, he will come out with ice in his veins and beat Daniil easily in straights. It will be a very similar match to AO 2021 - lots of hype that Daniil will be a "massive threat," only to fold like a tame little doe.

I hope so.
Russia has had so many great tennis talents, but not a single ATG. I sometimes wonder why.

 

[tudwell]

I’ll bite.

Djokovic’s Achilles heel is hot humid weather.

The last time Djok played a slam match in conditions as warm as tomorrow? US Open 2014 semi vs Nishikori.

Djok’s most recent two matches with temperature as hot as tomorrow? Olympic semi against Zverev, and Bronze metal match against PCB.

Meanwhile, Medvedev is a stud in Bo5 as long as it’s hot out. He only loses when the temp is in the 60s or 70s.

The last time Medvedev lost a slam match when the high temp that day was 80F or higher? 2019 AO, almost 3 years ago (when he was seeded #15 against #1 Djok). Med has won an incredible 17 consecutive slam matches with temp over 80F since then.

Where do you get these temperature stats?

 

[uscwang]

Not even Medvedev thinks he can win

He knows the best. Has he improved in any area since the AO? Winning Marseille, Mallorca, Mexicanada hardly cuts it.

 

[veroniquem]

It's neither hot nor humid in NY right now. Perfect weather

 

[TopspintheTerrible]

I have a minority opinion but think this will be a blow out for Djokovic. Novak already has played a brilliant mental card by saying, "I am going to play on Sunday as if it's the last match of my career." He's the strongest mental player out there by a huge margin and Med has choked countless big matches (how about the 2019 YEC finals where he was 5-1 up against Rafa in the third and ended up losing?)

Djokovic is going for history and will be dialed in from the first point. Unlike Med, he doesn't have lapses in concentration or go on mental walkabouts. He won't lose the first set tomorrow, he will come out with ice in his veins and beat Daniil easily in straights. It will be a very similar match to AO 2021 - lots of hype that Daniil will be a "massive threat," only to fold like a tame little doe.

I think the weather forecast makes this less likely. It’s going to be gross tomorrow.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

The weather forecast for tomorrow in NYC is 88 degrees with no chance of rain and some humidity.

 

[-NN-]

I have a minority opinion but think this will be a blow out for Djokovic. Novak already has played a brilliant mental card by saying, "I am going to play on Sunday as if it's the last match of my career." He's the strongest mental player out there by a huge margin and Med has choked countless big matches (how about the 2019 YEC finals where he was 5-1 up against Rafa in the third and ended up losing?)

Djokovic is going for history and will be dialed in from the first point. Unlike Med, he doesn't have lapses in concentration or go on mental walkabouts. He won't lose the first set tomorrow, he will come out with ice in his veins and beat Daniil easily in straights. It will be a very similar match to AO 2021 - lots of hype that Daniil will be a "massive threat," only to fold like a tame little doe.

I didn't like this from Djokovic. That's when he made it clear that the possibility of a Grand Slam isn't just "there", but that it's so critically different that he has to go Full Hero in his comments toward the match. If he's serious, then I could see him majorly underperforming.

Just take it as another Slam final.

 

[TennisFan3]

I have a minority opinion but think this will be a blow out for Djokovic.

It's NOT a minority opinion. A lot of tennis experts are predicting that. We saw their match in AO 2021.
And Novak is playing even better with a bigger serve, better tactical execution, more pace and more variety.

There is absolutely no path for Medvedev to win, unless for some reason Novak chokes up and just can't keep balls in the court.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

I didn't like this from Djokovic. That's when he made it clear that the possibility of a Grand Slam isn't just "there", but that it's so critically different that he has to go Full Hero in his comments toward the match. If he's serious, then I could see him majorly underperforming.

Just take it as another Slam final.

The #1 achilles heel I have noticed from Djokovic in major matches he has lost has been over-confidence and arrogance. It has done him in on numerous occasions. It's one thing to have self-confidence and know that you have a strong game plan, but it's another to assume that you are entitled to win the match. Most of the big matches in his career where I have seen him lose this has been a big factor in his loss. A few matches he has lost it has simply been because he has not shown up for the match - that has happened a few times when he has played Rafa in particular.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Hyped.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

Djokovic is just one match away from the CYGS.
Third Grand Slam final for Medvedev (after USO 19 and AO 21), still seeking for his maiden GS title.

H2H
Djokovic 5-3 Medvedev

Road to the QF

Vegas odds
(as of 11 September)

Sources:
atptour.com
tennisabstract.com
oddsportal.com

What do you think?

Gill Gross pointed out correctly that since Medvedev has been Medvedev - meaning has been a top player - the record is really 3-3. He wasn't a contender until after those two 2017 matches. I agree with Gill Gross.

 

[topher]

Well it is the No1 and No2 seeds which is most people's idea of a great final, especially with what is at stake

You’re right, it’s almost as suspenseful as #1 Roger Federer vs #2 Andy Roddick

 

[paolo2143]

It's NOT a minority opinion. A lot of tennis experts are predicting that. We saw their match in AO 2021.
And Novak is playing even better with a bigger serve, better tactical execution, more pace and more variety.

There is absolutely no path for Medvedev to win, unless for some reason Novak chokes up and just can't keep balls in the court.

There are plenty of paths for Medvedev to win if Novak is even a little below par.

 

[FlamingCheeto]

Sorry kids, Med has ZERO CHANCE< Nada, ZERO! He'll be lucky to take a set, which will probably be the first one LOL.

 

[FlamingCheeto]

There are plenty of paths for Medvedev to win if Novak is even a little below par.

Nope, there are ZERO Paths. None. Nada.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Russia has had so many great tennis talents, but not a single ATG. I sometimes wonder why.

Remember Russia was behind the iron curtain until 1990, so they were not inclined to send their players abroad because they might defect (as Navratilova did from then-Czechoslovakia). They didn't have the means to develop an elite player for many decades, unlike America or Australia, who churned out a ton of good/great players. Andrei Chesnokov was a top 10 Russian player in the early 90's and he always talked about how the conditions were primitive for him until he was allowed to get out of Russia and train elsewhere in western Europe.

 

[paolo2143]

For most tennis fans under age of sixty then tomorrow's match is the first time they will have seen someone have a chance to do CGS. Whether you are a Novak fan or not you have to admit that it is great we get to watch what may or may not be a piece of tennis history.

I for one am grateful that Novak has made the final and no matter what happens it is exciting to be able to watch something so historic that no one else has for over 50 years.

 

[TopspintheTerrible]

Again most of the people who are saying Novak is going to win comfortably are Fed and Nadal fans who are trying to down play success and then gloat if he fails. Most Novak fans including me are extremely nervous and know that Danii is capable of winning if Novak is not 100% on his game.

I’ll be interested to see if the weather + time on court plays a factor. Djokovic has spent about 17hrs on court. Med has been on court for about 12.5hrs.

The forecast for tmrw is 90 degrees + humidity. I don’t think either player enjoys hot+humid conditions (Med certainly didn’t in Tokyo). Novak’s night QF+ SF matches have been played in much cooler conditions so it might take a bit to adjust to the heat.

Those are the biggest advantages I think Med has pre-match. So if he can drag Novak into long rallies & hold serve somewhat easily, Novak will be forced to dig deep.

 

[junior74]

Medvedev in straights!

Permission granted

 

[Deleted member 771911]

Permission granted

One of my most favourite cinema experiences!

 

[junior74]

One of my most favourite cinema experiences!

Same here!

 

[Hitman]

Same here!

Lets have some white cake.

 

[duaneeo]

Djokovic in five.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

I have heard a different weather forecast - 88 degrees, partly cloudy, less humid. While I do not live in NYC I live not too far from it and we often have the same weather here as in NYC.

 

[Hitman]

Djokovic in five.

Thoughts on Zverev from yesterday?

 

[Aabye5]

Medvedev telegraphs that he is going to hit an underarm serve to everyone watching. He should watch Kyrgios if he wants to use that in actual matches.

 

[Aabye5]

Djokovic in five.

I can live with this...

 

[Aabye5]

Gill Gross pointed out correctly that since Medvedev has been Medvedev - meaning has been a top player - the record is really 3-3. He wasn't a contender until after those two 2017 matches. I agree with Gill Gross.

True, but he has one set in best of 5 matches. That's what counts against him.

 

[socallefty]

You have two groups on this thread saying diametrically opposite things.

- One group claims that all the NextGen players are mugs, this is a weak era and Djokovic will skate through in straights.
- The other group states that Med is playing great, quotes his great stats from the tournament and claims he will win.

All I know is that Med is playing great, the current level of tennis is superb with 130mph serves, 85mph FH with 3000rpm, 80mph BHs with 2500rpm, insane movement to get into 30-shot rallies when shots are hit so hard and in the end, Novak still wins. He wins and loses some long rallies, but mostly he serves superbly when needed to win a lot of short points at big moments. The other guys serve big except when it is tight when their % goes down and the greatest returner in the game capitalizes.

Med had great stats entering the 2020USO SF and 2021AO final - he went home with a straight set loss in both matches still when confronted by a better player against whom he couldn’t just wait for them to make errors. They both have more power than him in long points on both wings. He got frantic trying to hit winners to end points and ended up making a lot of errors himself. Let’s see if history repeats - it usually has a tendency to do so.

 

[duaneeo]

Thoughts on Zverev from yesterday?

ABZ forever.

 

[Aabye5]

Thoughts on Zverev from yesterday?

A few things...1) his serve still needs some work, which is surprising given how many bombs he was serving, particularly at the beginning. But when it was close, it deserted him. 2) The crowd played a big role here, because often when it gets close it seems that the crowd can just give a player an extra burst of energy. Although he wasn't physically tired, mentally and emotionally Zverev looked whipped. Hence, the tears in the press conference.

He needs to have his brother's level of net game, and not miss important overheads by a mile. It's not like he can't hit an overhead, he just can't do it when there's pressure. Reminds of his match against Rafa several years ago when he flubbed a similar swinging volley (?) on match point. Let it bounce....

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

True, but he has one set in best of 5 matches. That's what counts against him.

I am hoping that was an aberration. I just so want Medvedev to win tomorrow. I hope the third time is the charm (his third GS final). Thiem won it on his fourth attempt.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

Why are there still two identical threads on this match??

 

[Aabye5]

You have two groups on this thread saying diametrically opposite things.

- One group claims that all the NextGen players are mugs, this is a weak era and Djokovic will skate through in straights.
- The other group states that Med is playing great, quotes his great stats from the tournament and claims he will win.

All I know is that Med is playing great, the current level of tennis is superb with 130mph serves, 85mph FH with 3000rpm, 80mph BHs with 2500rpm, insane movement to get into 30-shot rallies when shots are hit so hard and in the end, Novak still wins. He wins and loses some long rallies, but mostly he serves superbly when needed to win a lot of short points at big moments. The other guys serve big except when it is tight when their % goes down and the greatest returner in the game capitalizes.

Med had great stats entering the 2020USO SF and 2021AO final - he went home with a straight set loss in both matches still when confronted by a better player against whom he couldn’t just wait for them to make errors. They both have more power than him in long points on both wings. He got frantic trying to hit winners to end points and ended up making a lot of errors himself. Let’s see if history repeats - it usually has a tendency to do so.

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." ~Mark Twain

I don't think it matters how well Medvedev is playing, but how well Djokovic is not playing. If he comes out sharp, it could be over very quickly. If he comes out flat like he did against Zverev, Medvedev is more likely to capitalize. Will that be enough? Well, that's why we watch, after all.

 

[alexio]

Remember Russia was behind the iron curtain until 1990, so they were not inclined to send their players abroad because they might defect (as Navratilova did from then-Czechoslovakia). They didn't have the means to develop an elite player for many decades , unlike America or Australia, who churned out a ton of good/great players. Andrei Chesnokov was a top 10 Russian player in the early 90's and he always talked about how the conditions were primitive for him until he was allowed to get out of Russia and train elsewhere in western Europe.

good post, for example, a great goalie tretiak received an offer from canadiens to play there, but due to those stupid restrictions he wasn't allowed to do it,..and btw, a slight correction that that iron curtain was until 91, so in 3 months cca it's gonna be exactly 30 years

 

[GhostDog]

Djoker in 4. He can't be stopped at this point. He will make history.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

You have two groups on this thread saying diametrically opposite things.

- One group claims that all the NextGen players are mugs, this is a weak era and Djokovic will skate through in straights.
- The other group states that Med is playing great, quotes his great stats from the tournament and claims he will win.

All I know is that Med is playing great, the current level of tennis is superb with 130mph serves, 85mph FH with 3000rpm, 80mph BHs with 2500rpm, insane movement to get into 30-shot rallies when shots are hit so hard and in the end, Novak still wins. He wins and loses some long rallies, but mostly he serves superbly when needed to win a lot of short points at big moments. The other guys serve big except when it is tight when their % goes down and the greatest returner in the game capitalizes.

Med had great stats entering the 2020USO SF and 2021AO final - he went home with a straight set loss in both matches still when confronted by a better player against whom he couldn’t just wait for them to make errors. They both have more power than him in long points on both wings. He got frantic trying to hit winners to end points and ended up making a lot of errors himself. Let’s see if history repeats - it usually has a tendency to do so.

This year has made me a lot more optimistic for the future of tennis despite Novak winning every slam match so far.

The next gen is definitely starting to come on strong. They are also interesting to watch and no one besides Rublev really grunts. The tour is going to be pretty deep and competitive soon. Especially if Thiem comes back healthy.

I feel a bit bad rooting against Med. Similar to how I felt rooting for Federer against Roddick. But greatness takes precedence. I'll start rooting for the next gen next year. But, if Med wins, I wouldn't be mad either.

 

[James P]

You have two groups on this thread saying diametrically opposite things.

- One group claims that all the NextGen players are mugs, this is a weak era and Djokovic will skate through in straights.
- The other group states that Med is playing great, quotes his great stats from the tournament and claims he will win.

All I know is that Med is playing great, the current level of tennis is superb with 130mph serves, 85mph FH with 3000rpm, 80mph BHs with 2500rpm, insane movement to get into 30-shot rallies when shots are hit so hard and in the end, Novak still wins. He wins and loses some long rallies, but mostly he serves superbly when needed to win a lot of short points at big moments. The other guys serve big except when it is tight when their % goes down and the greatest returner in the game capitalizes.

Med had great stats entering the 2020USO SF and 2021AO final - he went home with a straight set loss in both matches still when confronted by a better player against whom he couldn’t just wait for them to make errors. They both have more power than him in long points on both wings. He got frantic trying to hit winners to end points and ended up making a lot of errors himself. Let’s see if history repeats - it usually has a tendency to do so.

I'm pretty middle of the road. Medvedev is my boy, but I picked Djokovic in 5. It is what it is, he's looked pretty good the last couple of matches. I'm desperately hoping I'm wrong. I'll be truly shocked if it's a straight set demo job a la Australia again, though.

 

[Martin J]

The only way I see Djokovic losing this match is if his legs give out as he's spent 5 hours more on the court than his almost 10 years younger opponent or if the pressure of the occasion gets to him.
Technically, he is superior to Medvedev in almost every aspect of the game. Med will have to serve incredibly well to put pressure on Novak's service games and eventually extend the rallies in order to break him physically and/or force him into errors, but he hasn't convinced me yet that he's able to maintain a high intensity over BO5 against a player like Novak.

I agree with people who said that Zverev was his toughest opponent (due to his firepower and the ability to win the BH2BH exchanges) in the draw and he's already taken care of him.

 

[TennisFan3]

One of my most favourite cinema experiences!

Which movie is this please?

 

[Deleted member 771911]

Which movie is this please?

Django unchained

 

[Djokodal Fan]

if Novak can take the first set, he has a fair chance at the title. Novak has been far too generous in donating sets to unknowns and pigeons on his way to the final. What worries me is the fact that whether Novak will have enough gas left in the tank.

Dishwasher can easily out rally or endlessly retrieve ball with this boring baseline tennis. And if Novak breaks down physically after first 2 long sets it will be game over.

I hope Novak recovers to deliver the knockout punch on Sunday. If fully recovered dishwasher can't do much. Novak does everything better and also has better net game to put pressure on the opponent.

Hoping for a Novak win and CYGS. Heart wants to see that. But my mind says otherwise

 

[philxor]

Medvedev has a bigger (but not necessarily better) serve and can hit some crazy high speed flat shots sometimes but his game is Djokovic's game. Unless something crazy happens, Djokovic is going to continue to be better at it than anyone else. I say he has a dip somewhere and it goes 4.

 

[Omega_7000]

The only way I see Djokovic losing this match is if his legs give out as he's spent 5 hours more on the court than his almost 10 years younger opponent or if the pressure of the occasion gets to him.
Technically, he is superior to Medvedev in almost every aspect of the game. Med will have to serve incredibly well to put pressure on Novak's service games and eventually extend the rallies in order to break him physically and/or force him into errors, but he hasn't convinced me yet that he's able to maintain a high intensity over BO5 against a player like Novak.

I agree with people who said that Zverev was his toughest opponent (due to his firepower and the ability to win the BH2BH exchanges) in the draw and he's already taken care of him.

Didn't you know that legs stop giving out and stamina does not deplete the older you get....or does that only apply to Djokovic?